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Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Morse, Boesch, Ludwick, Niese

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Baseball season is moving right along, but remember more than 60% of the season is still to play, so big gaps can still be made up with good decisions and some luck.

 
Stock Up

Michael Morse, 1B/OF, WAS – Morse is still rocking the ball and is back in the Stock Up column again this week. Over the last two weeks, he hit .357 with 4 homers, 15 RBI, 10 runs scored and even added a stolen base. This guy started out ice cold but is a great play if he is still lingering on your waiver wire.

Brennan Boesch, OF, DET – Like Morse, Boesch also started the season without a full-time gig, but his bat is hot. Take advantage of the .340/5/14/11 over the last two weeks and assume it will continue for a bit longer. The average will eventually cool off, but the power should continue all season.

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC – If this highly touted prospect is still on your waiver wire, you need to stop reading this and go pick him up right now. Hosmer is a legitimate bat and will give you power and average. He put up .371/2/14/11/1 over the fortnight and is likely to produce all season.

Corey Patterson, OF, TOR – Patterson finds himself on this list for the second straight week. When the opportunity presented itself, Patterson was ready to answer the call. During the last two weeks, he has hit .322/3/8/13/2 and will continue to get full time at bats as long as he’s producing.

Miguel Olivo, C, SEA – If you are looking for a hitting catcher, Olivo might be your answer. He hit .277/4/15/8/1 during the last two week stretch, so ride the wave.

Alexi Casilla, 2B/SS, MIN – If you need steals, Casilla might be your man. While hitting .321 with six ribbies and 8 runs scored in the last two weeks, Casilla also ripped off five bases and is a great middle infield play right now.

Ryan Ludwick, OF, STL – Ludwick is another repeat offender on the Stock Up list. In the last two weeks, Luddy has put up .396/0/7/9. He’s not hitting for power, but he is hitting the ball well right now so grab him and hope the power flares up.

Adam Kennedy, 1B/2B/3B, SEA – Kennedy has a lot of position flexibility and is getting playing time at the expense of other Mariners who aren’t hitting as well. Kennedy is hitting in the middle of the order and playing most anywhere around the infield while hitting .317/1/7/9/1 in the last two weeks. This is a very odd situation for a utility infielder with a historically weak bat to see this kind of attention, but why should you argue with this kind of production?

Jon Niese, SP, NYM – Niese is 4-1 with 36 K, a 2.25 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP since May 1. His home starts are significantly better than those on the road, so he’s a great spot starter.

 
Stock Down

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI – Howard is really struggling without the complimentary pieces that he is accustomed to having around him. This season, he’s missed Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino, Domonic Brown and others. Over the last two weeks he’s posted .191/2/10/3 and isn’t getting too many quality pitches to hit. If someone is offering you full value, you might want to jump as he’s likely to find himself without much help for the rest of the season.

Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE – Choo is about the only Cleveland Indian who is struggling at the plate this season as the magical summer on Lake Erie continues for a most unlikely team. Over the last two weeks, Choo has posted .209/0/0/3 and it is unclear if he can get it together any time soon. He is hitting .169 with runners in scoring position this season and a recent DUI arrest may not be good for getting his focus back any time soon.

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – Dunn has hit 38 or more home runs in each of the last seven seasons and a new home at one of the most homer-friendly parks in baseball was supposed to elevate him into the 50-homer club. That only works if you can actually make contact, which is a big problem for Dunn these days. During the last two weeks, Dunn has only managed .143/1/3/5 and he may have the same disease that Pat Burrell suffered while with Tampa Bay. That disease is one where a player plays awful defense in the National League, while still hitting well. The obvious answer is a designated hitter gig in the American League, but for whatever reason it brings down their hitting. Dunn will most likely regain his stroke if he can get back to the NL, but there doesn’t seem to be anyone interested in his contract, which still guarantees him more than $50 million.

Jon Lester, SP, BOS – Lester dominated in April and then has struggled in May. His average fastball is still at 92 MPH, so he seems healthy. He’s probably just hit a rough patch that will work itself out and there is nothing to worry over even though his ERA has risen from 2.33 to 3.96 since his May 3 start.

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Ludwick, Maybin, Pena, Collmenter

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Stock Up

Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD – Ludwick put together a big week hitting .440 with three homers, 10 RBI and scoring 5 runs. That is quite a feat for a guy playing in an extreme pitchers park on an anemic offense. Don’t expect a repeat of his monstrous 2008 season, but a good season could be in the cards for Luddy.

Justin Turner, 2B, NYM – Turner is taking full advantage of the second base vacancy that was created by injuries and poor play. Over the last week, he has piled up .400/1/10/4 and is trying to make his case for the starting team. The Mets and Turner are hot right now and he could be a very useful middle infield piece for the time being.

Cameron Maybin, OF, SD – Maybin has been a highly regarded prospect for several years now and the luster is beginning to wear off as he has not lived up to his billing. Maybe a change to San Diego and the relaxing SoCal lifestyle has finally helped him find his place in baseball. He has put up .368/2/5/5 with a stolen base over the last week and seems to be the catalyst in the suddenly hot Padres offense.

Ronny Cedeno, SS, PIT – Cedeno has been losing some starts to Brandon Wood, but should find more starts with weeks like this one: .444/1/4/5. Cedeno has always had a little pop in his bat, but he usually struggles with batting average, meaning that this isn’t likely to last. But enjoy the ride while he’s providing you with quality numbers from the very thin shortstop position.

Brad Hawpe, 1B/OF, SD – Yet another Padre who is hot, Hawpe has crushed the ball to a .381/1/3/6 tune over the last week. This guy has always had the goods, but keeping it all together for lengths of time was always his problem. Enjoy it as he’ll probably add some homer power to these numbers.

Carlos Pena, 1B, CHC – Is that the same Carlos Pena who had great difficulty keeping his batting average above the Mendoza Line? Yes it is and he’s smoking the ball right now on the North Side with a .316/2/5/4. He’s always had great power, but ride him while the average is good.

Josh Collmenter, SP, ARI – Collmenter was the focus of a prospect report last winter and he seems to be living up to his billing. His delivery is tough for hitters as the ball seems to come out from right above his head. He’s 3-0 with a 0.69 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP in two starts and seven relief appearances. As long as he keeps pitching like this, he’ll keep his rotation slot.

Ryan Vogelsong, SP, SF – Vogelsong has been a journeyman minor leaguer for quite a few years and San Francisco has found the right spot for him. He’s 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in four starts and two relief appearances. With question marks surrounding Barry Zito and Madison Bumgarner, Vogelsong should keep his spot in the rotation as long as he keeps pitching well.

Colby Lewis, SP, TEX – Lewis had a breakout season in 2010 after a journeyman’s career. He struggled in his first four starts going 1-3 with a 6.95 ERA and only 14 strikeouts, but he has really turned it around in the last four starts, going 3-1 with a 1.67 ERA and 24 strikeouts. Buy now and point out the .500 record and hope that his owner hasn’t noticed the reversal of fortunes.

 
Stock Down

Albert Pujols, 1B, STL – Pujols got a second game this season at 3B and it is very possible that he might just find three more this season to get to five (an eligibility qualifying mark in many leagues), but his bat has been awful in the last week (.250/0/1/1/1). It has more to do with the surrounding cast than a Pujols slump, as Colby Rasmus, David Freese, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman have all sustained injuries. Without any coverage, there’s no reason for pitchers to throw Phat Albert anything decent.

Evan Longoria, 3B, TB – Longoria is still not back to full speed yet after his oblique injury. He posted a .185/0/0/3 line, something we might expect from Eva Longoria, not Evan. As he regains his strength and stamina, Longo will be back to top form.

Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI – Howard is suffering from the same lack of help that Pujols is facing. Without Chase Utley, Domonic Brown and Jayson Werth, Howard doesn’t see too many worthwhile pitches. As the team gets healthy and the summer heats up in Citizens Band Box Park, Howard will post the numbers you’ve come to expect.

John Danks, SP, CHW – Danks hasn’t been miserable this season, he’s just been unlucky. At 0-6, the quick glance looks bad but his K/9 rate of 6.48 is slightly below is career rate of 6.94 but his batting average against is .274 compared with a career mark of .251 which is probably caused by a BABIP of .313 compared to his career average of .286. His walks are also up a little bit, so he may be causing some of his own damage. There’s nothing that says he should be 0-6, but there’s also no indications that he’ll turn things around anytime soon. He’s a great guy to buy low and stash, but he’s probably not ready to start for your team until he shows some serious upward movement in his game.

Ryan Franklin, RP, STL – If the fact that Franklin lost his closer role didn’t tell you he’s sucking this year, maybe his 12.46 ERA and 2.54 WHIP over the last two weeks will. If he’s still on your team, dump him now. The Cardinals have two legitimate closer options in Fernando Salas and Eduardo Sanchez to make sure that Franklin is nothing more than a setup man for the rest of his days in St. Louis.

NFBC Post-Draft Recap

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I completed my National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) satellite league draft last Wednesday night, and I have to say it was a rather painful affair – not the team I drafted but the draft itself.

I participated in five mock drafts at Mock Draft Central to prepare for this draft, and was expecting to finish in the same two to two and half hour session it usually took for the mocks. For this draft we needed more than four hours to complete 30 rounds. With a 9:00pm start time, I was still awake after 1:00am. The draft was definitely cutting into my beauty sleep.

We had too many owners who seemed unprepared to make their selections when it was their turn, which was surprising. There also seemed to be too many times when owners would hold their pick to the last of the 90 second clock, trying to create some sort of drama. Hopefully that experience is not normal for other NFBC drafts. Now that the draft is over though, it is time to evaluate my squad.

NFBC uses the Kentucky Derby Style of selecting draft positions, which means each owner ranks what draft pick they would like, and a random selection runs through the preferences of each owner to determine the draft order.

I was hopeful I would end up with a draft slot in the middle of the pack to get a pick every 20 choices or so. Unfortunately I had some bad luck and I found myself at #14, maybe the hardest draft slot of them all.

The only good thing about the 14th slot is that I can watch the team selecting 15th, and make my choices based on what they are likely to do (or not do) with their back-to-back picks. For instance, since he selected Jimmy Rollins in the fourth round, he was very unlikely to select a SS with any pick until at least the middle of the draft. Knowing this, when I was ready to select a SS, I could do it on the second of my two picks after the short turn rather than have to move with the first.

Here is my roster, including the 7 reserve picks:

Draft Results By Round
Round Pos Player
1 3B David Wright
2 1B Ryan Howard
3 SP Jon Lester
4 OF Jason Heyward
5 1B Kendrys Morales
6 SP Roy Oswalt
7 2B Aaron Hill
8 OF Delmon Young
9 RP Jonathan Broxton
10 OF Vernon Wells
11 OF Grady Sizemore
12 RP Jose Valverde
13 SP Javier Vazquez
14 2B Ryan Theriot
15 SP Ian Kennedy
16 C John Buck
17 C A.J. Pierzynski
18 OF Nate McLouth
19 SP Clayton Richard
20 SS Cliff Pennington
21 1B Garrett Jones
22 SP Jon Garland
23 OF David DeJesus
24 SP Tommy Hunter
25 SP Mike Pelfrey
26 SP Daisuke Matsuzaka
27 SP Phil Coke
28 3B Danny Valencia
29 SP Joe Saunders
30 OF Scott Podsednik
Draft Results By Position
Pos Player (Round)
1B Ryan Howard (2)
1B Kendrys Morales (5)
1B Garrett Jones (21)
2B Aaron Hill (7)
2B Ryan Theriot (14)
3B David Wright (1)
3B Danny Valencia (28)
SS Cliff Pennington (20)
OF Jason Heyward (4)
OF Delmon Young (8)
OF Vernon Wells (10)
OF Grady Sizemore (11)
OF Nate McLouth (18)
OF David DeJesus (23)
OF Scott Podsednik (30)
C John Buck (16)
C A.J. Pierzynski (17)
SP Jon Lester (3)
SP Roy Oswalt (6)
SP Javier Vazquez (13)
SP Ian Kennedy (15)
SP Clayton Richard (19)
SP Jon Garland (22)
SP Tommy Hunter (24)
SP Mike Pelfrey (25)
SP Daisuke Matsuzaka (26)
SP Phil Coke (27)
SP Joe Saunders (29)
RP Jonathan Broxton (9)
RP Jose Valverde (12)

It is a very solid lineup, deep in power hitting and power arms. My team lacks speed, saves, and ratios, which might end up being the difference between first and second in this league. No trading is allowed (to prevent collusion), so I will have to hope my team stays healthier than others and make any adjustments from the waiver wire.

I’m not going to go through all 30 rounds, because you would find something else to read before we hit Aaron Hill, but I will hit some of the highlights and some of the lowlights.

After five mock drafts, I found the eight elite first basemen (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Adam Dunn) and the four elite third basemen (David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Zimmerman) went fast and the drop off was substantial afterwards.

Seeing what was realistic, I figured that if I could nab Ryan Howard and David Wright with those first two picks I would be in an optimum position, but it was all up to the rest of the league. When they fell to me at picks 14 and 17 overall, I knew I was well on my way to a great team. They both provide good power while Wright will give me stolen bases from an unusual position.

When all the power arms were disappearing as I helplessly watched 26 players fly off the board from my second to third pick, I was thrilled to see that one of my top three choices was still waiting for me: Jon Lester. Following the wrap around, I saw that Jason Heyward was still available and I jumped on that like nobody’s business.

As the draft progressed, I didn’t take as many pitchers early as I had planned to, but I did get Roy Oswalt in the sixth round. Since I participated in a mock draft the night before, I saw that some real pitching bargains developed in the teens and more could be found in the twenties. I did add a top starter in Javier Vazquez and closer in Jonathan Broxton, but I mostly concentrated on building a stout offense.

When Kendrys Morales and his still-healing leg fell to the fifth round, I saw a chance to separate myself from the pack and add a second power hitting first baseman to cover my corner infield slot. When I grabbed Hill in the seventh round and Delmon Young in the eighth, I was well on my way to dominating the league in homers and RBI.

Hitting bargains that I found included Vernon Wells in the 10th, Grady Sizemore in the 11th, Nate McLouth in the 18th and Garrett Jones in the 21st round. Pitching bargains really didn’t fall into my lap quite as much, but I do like some of my end-game pitching grabs which included Jon Garland in the 22nd, Tommy Hunter in the 24th, Mike Pelfrey in the 25th, Daisuke Matsuzaka in the 26th, and Joe Saunders in the 29th rounds. None will be superstars this season, but all will be good plays in the right matchup.

My secret weapon for the catcher position was Russell Martin who was selected right before I was about to pick him for myself. I did end up with John Buck and A.J. Pierzynski in the 16th and 17th rounds.

The last ten rounds were filled with bargain picks and depth chart filler. I found David DeJesus waiting for me at 23 to help with my batting average, and Scott Podsednik at 30 to give me a boost in steals if he comes back healthy.

The draft didn’t go exactly as I planned, but I like my team and my chances. I didn’t want to punt saves and steals, while not overpaying for each category either. I have enough guys to get a few points in each. If my guys stay healthy and the risks pay off, I should have a say in the league title at the end.