My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Los Angeles Dodgers are facing a RHP on road (Erasmo Ramirez SEA who has faced 63 batters). On FanDuel the Dodgers are currently putting up 2.36 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Erasmo Ramirez is currently allowing 156% more PPA than the MLB average (2.118 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.69 (2.36 x 156%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
Main Slate
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.118 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP on road | Erasmo Ramirez SEA | 63 | 2.36 x 156% | 3.69 | +1.33 | 1.78 x 156% | 2.78 | +1.00 |
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LHP at home | Ryan Carpenter DET | 60 | 2.09 x 131% | 2.73 | +0.64 | 1.60 x 131% | 2.10 | +0.50 |
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LHP on road | Martin Perez TEX | 277 | 1.89 x 139% | 2.62 | +0.74 | 1.46 x 140% | 2.04 | +0.58 |
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LHP at home | Wei-Yin Chen MIA | 412 | 2.30 x 116% | 2.67 | +0.37 | 1.75 x 114% | 2.00 | +0.25 |
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LHP at home | Andrew Heaney LAA | 555 | 2.53 x 97% | 2.46 | -0.07 | 1.90 x 97% | 1.85 | -0.06 |
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RHP at home | Tyler Glasnow TBR | 286 | 2.52 x 96% | 2.42 | -0.10 | 1.91 x 94% | 1.80 | -0.11 |
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RHP on road | Dylan Covey CHW | 375 | 1.95 x 120% | 2.34 | +0.39 | 1.51 x 117% | 1.76 | +0.26 |
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LHP on road | Clayton Richard SDP | 638 | 2.16 x 107% | 2.31 | +0.15 | 1.64 x 105% | 1.72 | +0.09 |
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LHP on road | Tommy Milone WSN | 98 | 1.95 x 114% | 2.23 | +0.28 | 1.50 x 118% | 1.77 | +0.27 |
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RHP at home | Tyler Chatwood CHC | 467 | 2.11 x 107% | 2.25 | +0.14 | 1.61 x 103% | 1.66 | +0.05 |
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RHP at home | Antonio Senzatela COL | 205 | 2.19 x 99% | 2.16 | -0.03 | 1.66 x 98% | 1.63 | -0.03 |
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LHP on road | Matt Harvey CIN | 477 | 1.80 x 113% | 2.04 | +0.24 | 1.40 x 113% | 1.58 | +0.18 |
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LHP on road | David Price BOS | 556 | 2.03 x 96% | 1.95 | -0.08 | 1.57 x 97% | 1.52 | -0.05 |
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RHP on road | Joe Musgrove PIT | 340 | 2.20 x 89% | 1.95 | -0.25 | 1.68 x 90% | 1.52 | -0.16 |
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LHP at home | Madison Bumgarner SFG | 338 | 2.24 x 84% | 1.89 | -0.35 | 1.69 x 86% | 1.44 | -0.24 |
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RHP on road | Kohl Stewart MIN | 21 | 1.69 x 106% | 1.79 | +0.10 | 1.31 x 112% | 1.47 | +0.16 |
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RHP at home | Zack Godley ARI | 604 | 1.85 x 99% | 1.82 | -0.02 | 1.42 x 98% | 1.39 | -0.03 |
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LHP at home | Rich Hill LAD | 363 | 1.87 x 97% | 1.80 | -0.06 | 1.45 x 97% | 1.41 | -0.04 |
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RHP at home | Brad Keller KCR | 395 | 2.10 x 85% | 1.78 | -0.32 | 1.62 x 86% | 1.39 | -0.22 |
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RHP on road | Mike Foltynewicz ATL | 547 | 2.02 x 86% | 1.73 | -0.29 | 1.53 x 86% | 1.32 | -0.21 |
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RHP on road | Miles Mikolas STL | 605 | 2.03 x 77% | 1.57 | -0.46 | 1.57 x 80% | 1.26 | -0.31 |
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LHP at home | Wade Miley MIL | 166 | 2.04 x 74% | 1.51 | -0.53 | 1.56 x 75% | 1.17 | -0.39 |
Early Games
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced | |
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.118 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP at home | Alex Cobb BAL | 549 | 2.57 x 121% | 3.12 | +0.55 | 1.93 x 121% | 2.34 | +0.41 |
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RHP at home | Sean Reid-Foley TOR | 22 | 2.54 x 120% | 3.05 | +0.52 | 1.91 x 121% | 2.30 | +0.40 |
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RHP on road | Adam Plutko CLE | 172 | 1.97 x 121% | 2.39 | +0.42 | 1.52 x 121% | 1.84 | +0.32 |
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RHP on road | Jake Arrieta PHI | 543 | 2.37 x 97% | 2.29 | -0.08 | 1.79 x 96% | 1.72 | -0.07 |
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RHP on road | Trevor Cahill OAK | 320 | 2.38 x 87% | 2.07 | -0.31 | 1.79 x 87% | 1.56 | -0.23 |
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RHP on road | Luis Severino NYY | 624 | 2.13 x 87% | 1.87 | -0.27 | 1.62 x 89% | 1.45 | -0.17 |
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LHP at home | Dallas Keuchel HOU | 654 | 2.00 x 89% | 1.79 | -0.21 | 1.52 x 91% | 1.38 | -0.13 |
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RHP at home | Jacob deGrom NYM | 623 | 2.23 x 66% | 1.46 | -0.77 | 1.69 x 68% | 1.15 | -0.53 |