DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

  • Member Login
  • Register

     

  • Fantasy Football
  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats

Top 10 Redraft Rookie Running Backs Plus Dynasty Prospects—Gordon, Gurley, Yeldon Breakout Candidates

May 11, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

Melvin Gordon was the second RB off the board at the 2015 NFL Draft to the San Diego Chargers, but is the best bet to lead all rookies at the position in fantasy football points this season.

Melvin Gordon was the second RB off the board at the 2015 NFL Draft to the San Diego Chargers, but is the best bet to lead all rookies at the position in fantasy football points this season.

After months of speculation, rumors and player scouting analysis, the 2015 NFL Draft is officially in the books. Now we look forward to training camp battles, mock drafts, average draft position (ADP) analysis and hours of research to prep for the best day of the year – fantasy football draft day! Don’t feel like you need to go it alone, because Draft Buddy is here to help!

Post-NFL Draft the first order of business is to review where the top rookies landed and judge their opportunity for success, including potential for a big instant impact in the NFL and on fantasy football rosters. Every year there are a handful of rookies that deliver an outstanding season that no one saw coming.

My rookie analysis series, starting today, focuses on each skill position to identify the rookies that have the highest potential for a breakout freshman year. Here are my Top 10 rookie running backs.

1. Melvin Gordon, Chargers

Let’s start off with a surprise: Melvin Gordon, in my opinion, has the best opportunity to lead this year’s rookie running backs in fantasy production. The San Diego Chargers traded up to grab Gordon, which is a great sign they have big plans for him right away, even with a somewhat crowded depth chart. Philip Rivers survived the trade rumors and is still under center to help keep defenses honest, a big boost to Gordon’s prospects. Gordon could easily bulldoze his way to lead all rookies in rushing. Interesting factoid: Gordon broke the NCAA single-game rushing record with 408 yards, a record previously held by LaDainian Tomlinson, who ran the majority of his Hall of Fame caliber career with the Chargers.

2. Todd Gurley, Rams

Arguably the most talented running back in this class, Todd Gurley comes in at number two on my list for the upcoming season. Currently, Gurley is recovering from a torn ACL, which is the only reason he fell one spot in my rankings due to risk of the St. Louis Rams taking their time with him. Assuming he does not suffer any setbacks, Gurley will make an immediate impact for the Rams. The Rams play “in your face” tough defense and will try to control the game flow by running the football as often as possible. Once Gurley is capable of handling a full workload, which by my guess is pretty quickly into the NFL season, quarterback Nick Foles will not hesitate to get Gurley involved in the passing game.

3. T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in desperate need of a bell-cow running back, and that might be just what they got in T.J. Yeldon. With only Toby Gerhart and Denard Robinson ahead of him, Yeldon should easily jump the depth charts to become the starter. He is the type of back that will chip away four and five yard runs and then follow it up with a first down through the air using his excellent pass-catching skills. He also has great blocking skills, which will make franchise quarterback Blake Bortles extremely happy and keep Yeldon on the field.

4. Tevin Coleman, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons have one of the most deadly pass attacks in the league with Julio Jones and Roddy White. However, to compensate for that, they have a horrible run game. They hope that Tevin Coleman will be the answer. New offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan likes to run the football and he is not afraid of using one running back (Alfred Morris) or splitting carries (Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell). If Coleman proves he can fit into Shanahans’ zone blocking scheme, he will find himself, at a minimum, splitting carries with teammate Devonta Freeman, who didn’t wow us last season.

5. Ameer Abdullah, Lions

Ameer Abdullah will enter Detroit Lion’s camp in a tough competition right out of the gate competing against Joique Bell for the starting position. Abdullah has amazing pass-catching abilities and explosive lateral movement, much like former Lions running back Reggie Bush, but with the ability to take a hard hit. It might take some time for Abdullah to earn the trust of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, but once he does, expect him to have a major role in the offense, even if it’s splitting carries with Bell.

6. David Johnson, Cardinals

With teammate Andre Ellington’s injury history and underwhelming performance in 2014, it is no surprise the Arizona Cardinals drafted a running back, and a bigger back that head coach Bruce Arians prefers. David Johnson has the potential to be a breakout candidate if/when called upon for the full time job. Assuming quarterback Carson Palmer is recovered from his own injury and able to lead the charge, Johnson and his impeccable pass-catching skills make for a great opportunity to be a major steal come fantasy draft day. Expect him to start his career playing third downs with the potential to work his way to every down back.

7. David Cobb, Titans

David Cobb joins a very young and hopeful Tennessee Titans team. There could be some serious growing pains in Tennessee, between Cobb, fellow rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, selected second overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, and rookie wide receiver Dorial-Green Beckham also expected to make an immediate impact. Cobb will face the “battle” of competing against sophomore Bishop Sankey for the starting running back spot. Sankey should be slotted atop the depth chart at the start of training camp, however any Titans fan can tell you that Sankey was a major disappointment in 2014. Unless Sankey shows major improvement, Cobb should be in the mix to earn the starting position over Sankey.

8. Duke Johnson, Browns

Unfortunately for Duke Johnson, he joins the Cleveland Browns already muddy backfield. He will compete with sophomores Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell for the starting job. Given how both West and Crowell split carries throughout 2014, there is no clear “lead dog” for the Browns. The Browns did bulk up their offensive line by drafting Cameron Erving, so that is a benefit. Watch the training camp news closely to see who is making a name for themselves.

9. Javorius Allen, Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens made many more off-the-field headlines at the running back position in 2014 than they would like thanks to the Ray Rice saga. On the plus side, Justin Forsett earned my unofficial “Waiver Wire Pickup of the Year” award. It isn’t often a player in his seventh pro season, on his fifth different team, has a breakout year like Forsett had last season. Let’s see if Forsett can repeat his 2014 numbers or if he turns out to be a one-year wonder. Lorenzo Taliaferro did not do much with his opportunity as the primary backup. Much like David Cobb mentioned above, Javorious Allen could be in line for significant carries if Forsett falters.

10. Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers

One of my sneaky late picks this year will be Cameron Artis-Payne as he joins the miserable Carolina Panthers back field. With the departure of DeAngelo Williams, Artis-Payne steps in as the immediate backup to Jonathan Stewart. It is no mystery that Stewart has a long injury history, so Artis-Payne is in position for a nice opportunity if (when?) Stewart misses time. With Cam Newton at quarterback, there is always the threat of him tucking the ball and running himself. However, Artis-Payne is a bowling ball at running back, so he can provide some instant relief for Newton, who has been the most hit quarterback over the last four years.

Potential Sleepers / Dynasty Prospects

Jay Ajayi, Dolphins

Running back Lamar Miller could have some stiff competition in 2015, not only from teammate Damien Williams, but from rookie Jay Ajayi. We cannot overlook the fact that Ajayi has some knee issues that caused his stock to sharply drop in the NFL Draft. If his knee issues go away, Ajayi could overtake Miller, if not in 2015, then in 2016. He is a good risk-reward prospect for dynasty leagues.

Matt Jones, Redskins

With the departure of Roy Helu, Matt Jones immediately steps in as the backup to Alfred Morris in Washington. Jones is a big, physical, downhill back. Morris is a free agent after this upcoming season, so Jones has the opportunity to step up and prove himself as the future for the Redskins. Also, Washington drafted huge offensive lineman Brandon Scherff, so he will help the run game for Morris and Jones.

Jeremy Langford, Bears

With Matt Forte entering the last year of his contract, he will want to be paid big money as he has been one of the most consistently productive running backs in the NFL. The Chicago Bears are well aware of the situation, and also the fact Forte will be 30 at year’s end. The Bears are preparing for a future without Forte by further developing sophomore Ka’Deem Carey and drafting Jeremy Langford. With Carey not showing the coaches too much in 2014 and recently acquired Jacquizz Rodgers likely only around one year, Langford has all of the 2015 season to prove he more than capable of handling the workload that might be left vacant by Forte.

Top 2015 Rookies Series

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Defensive Players

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Pre-NFL Draft 2015 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings—Bell, Lynch and Lacy Hold Down Top 3

April 28, 2015 By Dave 1 Comment

Even with a three game suspension looming - which we expect will get reduced to two - Pittsburgh Steelers Le'Veon Bell tops the pre-NFL Draft RB rankings.

Even with a three game suspension looming – which we expect will get reduced to two – Pittsburgh Steelers Le’Veon Bell tops the pre-NFL Draft RB rankings.

There are two competing schools of thought on drafting running backs for fantasy football in today’s NFL.

Some take the Chip Kelly approach who, even though he peddled LeSean McCoy to the Buffalo Bills this offseason, invested big free agent dollars right back into the position signing DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews. The idea is be willing to pay a high price at the position – early round draft picks for fantasy players – so you aren’t left with scraps.

The opposite approach is the old Mike Shanahan post-Terrell Davis, carried over to Gary Kubiak to a degree, philosophy. Give me just about anybody who can follow three simple instructions – run, cut, run – and I will have success in the running game. For fantasy players, this means forgoing the early, somewhat safer but still risky “studs” at RB in favor of other skill positions, and stockpile mid-tier running backs later on. Surely one or more will hit.

While we won’t get into a discussion today about whether you are better to use an early draft pick on Le’Veon Bell or Dez Bryant or Rob Gronkowski, so-called every down backs are a rare breed, and you don’t have to get very far down this list to find players with some potentially significant warts.

Regardless, we’ve got to rank them. Here are running back rankings for 2015 redraft fantasy football leagues, before the NFL Draft.

1. Le’Veon Bell, Steelers

Equally adept as a runner and receiver, Bell surpassed the lofty expectations placed upon him during his second season, emerging as a workhorse back and finishing the season with the 2nd most yards from scrimmage with 2,215 behind DeMarco Murray’s 2,261. Better yet, Bell managed to reach that mark with 76 fewer touches than Murray. He rates as the current consensus top pick in fantasy drafts and we aren’t going to buck that trend Expect his suspension to be reduced from three games to two.

2. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks

Let’s face it – the Seahawks offensive success hinges on Lynch’s ability to run the ball. While that equation may change slightly in 2015 due to the addition of Jimmy Graham, Lynch will still be the main go-to of this offense when the going gets tough. His rushing yardage, yards-per-carry, receiving yards, yards-per-reception and touchdown totals all increased last season. It doesn’t appear that he is slowing down as he approaches 29 years of age, and backups Robert Turbin and Christine Michael have done precious little to warrant a reduced workload for Marshawn.

3. Eddie Lacy, Packers

While his yardage totals didn’t increase appreciably and his touchdown total only went up by two, Lacy was clearly a far superior back in 2014 than during his rookie season. He looked more explosive while continuing to run hard giving us reason to believe another step forward should be expected in 2015.

4. Adrian Peterson, Vikings

In 2012, AP nearly broke the single season record for most rushing yards a few short months after tearing his ACL. We expect another big season (although not as spectacular) when he returns in 2015 after missing all but one game last season. An angry and motivated AP should return to glory even after passing the age of 30.

5. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs

After accumulating 329 touches and 1,980 total yards in 2013, Charles managed just 1,324 yards on 246 touches last season. Here’s to the notion that head coach Andy Reid will learn from his mistake of not using Charles enough in 2014.

6. Matt Forte, Bears

After being the centerpiece of the Bears offense during former head coach Marc Trestman’s two years with the team, Forte is in line for a major reduction in his workload in 2015. About to turn 30 and entering the final year of his contract, Forte will need to adapt to life under John Fox, who is a big believer in splitting carries at the running back position. Since the Bears have precious little behind Forte, he should still see a healthy workload making him a mid-tier RB1.

7. Arian Foster, Texans

Foster’s injury history negatively impacts his booster club membership amongst fantasy football players since his heyday (just two seasons removed, 2012), but generally far more than it should. When healthy, he averaged the 2nd most fantasy points per game amongst the league’s running backs last season. Foster is a talented dude and the Texans have almost no choice but to rely on him heavily.

8. DeMarco Murray, Eagles

While Murray went to Philadelphia and got paid, he won’t see the opportunity he had in 2014. Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles will see to that. A top five finish at running back will be hard to achieve and injury risk after so many touches last season has to be a concern.

9. LeSean McCoy, Bills

Sorry, Chip Kelly fans, but I’m putting my money down on McCoy proving ole’ Chip was wrong in trading a 27-year old Pro Bowl quality running back. The Bills offensive line is no match for the Eagles but new offensive coordinator Greg Roman knows a thing or two about running the ball, as San Francisco 49ers fans can attest to.

10. Jeremy Hill, Bengals

It would be a shock if Giovani Bernard regains his starting position in 2015 after Hill chalked up 929 rushing yards and six touchdowns over the final nine games of the season. Hill took his opportunity, seized it, and the coaching staff genuinely seems to prefer Hill to Bernard as the main contributor out of the backfield.

11. C.J. Anderson, Broncos

Over his last eight games, Anderson produced like an upper tier RB1 with 1,057 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Of course, he hogged the touches because the Broncos didn’t have any other healthy options, including Peyton Manning and his bum quadriceps. You could easily argue that he should be further up the rankings but a new coaching staff plus the return of Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman increase Anderson’s risk profile.

12. Lamar Miller, Dolphins

Miller reached statistical highs in every major offensive category last season, finishing the season as the 9th ranked fantasy running back with 1,374 total yards and nine touchdowns. However, he was once again underutilized with just 254 touches over the course of the season. If the coaching staff had more faith so would we.

13. Carlos Hyde, 49ers

Out of all of the running backs with breakout potential, Hyde has to rank right near the top, if not at the top. He will replace Frank Gore as the 49ers bell cow runner and would rank higher if not for the presence of Reggie Bush, who signed as a free agent and figures to handle most of the pass receiving out of the backfield.

14. Justin Forsett, Ravens

Ozzie Newsome believes in Forsett and I generally follow the advice of one of the league’s top talent evaluators. Plus, the Ravens have little behind Forsett. While another 1,500 yard season probably isn’t in the cards, Forsett has the look of an upper tier RB2 prior to the league’s rookie draft.

15. Tre Mason, Rams

In just 12 games, Mason racked up 913 total yards and five touchdowns, averaging a very sturdy 10.1 yards per carry. He is the clear cut starter in the Rams backfield and could emerge as a lower tier RB1 if the team’s coaching staff allows him to handle a larger role in the passing game. He caught just 16 receptions as a rookie in 2014.

16. Alfred Morris, Redskins

While not exactly a great fit in head coach Jay Gruden’s offense, Morris was still a solid fantasy play last season with 1,074 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. That production is basically his floor and his upside is much greater if RGIII can somehow stay healthy.

17. Mark Ingram, Saints

In 13 games, Ingram produced 1,109 total yards and nine touchdowns, averaging a nifty 12.7 PPG. While C.J. Spiller was signed in the offseason, he basically takes over the role of the departed Pierre Thomas. It’s also worth noting Khiry Robinson averaged 3.5 carries per game when Ingram was healthy.

18. Joique Bell, Lions

Bell fits in here at the moment but if the Lions add a high draft pick to the running back position, his fantasy ranking will see a big drop. Let’s face it – Bell works hard but his talent level is amongst the worst in the league for projected starting running backs.

19. Frank Gore, Colts

While Gore’s touches and total yards will almost certainly decline in his first year in Indianapolis, his touchdowns figure to improve, making him a decent fantasy option provided he remains healthy at 32 years of age.

20. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers

He’s good when he’s healthy but he’s never healthy enough. And that’s why we’re not allowing ourselves to get too excited by the 738 yards and three touchdowns he posted over the final seven games of last season.

21. Latavius Murray, Raiders

While Murray has obvious natural physical gifts, it’s always a bit disconcerting when a team brings in a pair of veterans to fill out the depth chart. Roy Helu should handle the pass catching role and there is a small chance that Trent Richardson could eat into Murray’s workload, especially in short yardage.

22. Giovani Bernard, Bengals

Despite his struggles last season (three missed games, 4.0 YPC), Bernard still managed to finish 18th in fantasy points amongst the league’s running backs. Which begs the question, why is everyone so down on him? Sure, Jeremy Hill’s strong play as a rookie all but ensures that Bernard will never be a top five fantasy back but this is a dude with amazing big play ability. His floor is 1,000 total yards and 5-6 touchdowns.

23. C.J. Spiller, Saints

Is Spiller washed up at age 27 or was he simply miscast and underutilized during his last couple of years in Buffalo? Who knows, but his upside is limited in 2015 as he is stuck behind Mark Ingram. However, Darren Sproles proved to be a useful fantasy option in Sean Payton’s offense. It stands to reason they signed Spiller to be a somewhat significant contributor to the offense, especially with the receiver departures.

24. Andre Ellington, Cardinals

There are a lot of players to potentially put in this spot, since we are stopping at 24. Teams still without a RB in the first 23 ranked players are the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, New York Giants, New York Jets, San Diego Chargers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans. Clearly, the NFL Draft and training camp battles are going to have a big impact on these rankings between now and late-August.

For number 24, lets start at the top of our alphabetical team list, Arizona. It is very difficult to peg projections for Ellington since it is unclear how the Cardinals plan to use him in 2015. He is currently the top of a thin depth chart, on what should be a potentially explosive offense. However, Bruce Arians is motivated to get a bigger body in there and protect QB Carson Palmer. Ellington’s talent is worthy of this spot, but expect the Cardinals to add to the position in the draft.

2015 Early Rankings Series

Top 150 | Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Running Back Tiers, Rankings and Draft Strategy Discussion

August 29, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Top ranked running backs for fantasy football, Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy. Photos: Icon Sportswire

Is Jamaal Charles the top ranked running back in fantasy football? There are some red flags. Maybe LeSean McCoy? Truth be told there are five top workhorse running backs that should be the first five picks in most formats in 2014. Photos: Icon Sportswire

While the NFL has become more of a passing league, fantasy football championships are still heavily influenced by an owner’s ability to secure two solid running backs in his or her starting lineup.

But with teams relying more on their passing attacks than ever before and moving to committee approaches at the running back position, the number of workhorse running backs has been drastically reduced in recent years.

In 2014, there are fewer than 10 workhorse running backs and some of the players that fall within that category have injury concerns which reduce their fantasy appeal. That being said, just about any workhorse running back is worth gambling on given the short supply.

This season features five solid options at the top of the running back rankings, and these players should be the first players taken in all formats. After that, there are several solid options worth gambling on but the supply of players that have confidence inspiring roles and resumés begins to end after about 20 names with another five or six players having solid value given their current ADP.

But there’s a big difference between solid value meaning, “worth gambling on” than solid value meaning they give you solid comfort they will produce for the entire season.

Tier 1
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
1
Jamaal Charles
KC 6 1.03
2
LeSean McCoy
PHI 7 1.02
3
Adrian Peterson
MIN 10 1.04
4
Matt Forte
CHI 9 1.06
5
Eddie Lacy
GB 9 1.05

While you can quibble with the order of these five running backs, you can’t argue with the notion that they should be the first five players off the board in every draft. Bar none. At the top, the Chiefs depleted offensive line raises some concern as to whether Charles should remain the top ranked running back ahead of McCoy and Peterson. Put them in the order you like but if you have a top five selection, you must use your pick on one of these players.

Mike’s Take: There are some red flags for Charles which may prompt a move down within the tier. I am anxious to see what Norv Turner has in store for Adrian Peterson. Eddie Lacy was a later addition to Tier 1. I would be ecstatic to get him with a mid-first round pick. Looking at the top two tiers at RB and WR, I would almost definitely prefer to get one of these 5 RB and best available WR, than the other way around, in most formats.

Tier 2
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
6
Marshawn Lynch
SEA 4 1.10
7
DeMarco Murray
DAL 11 2.02
8
Doug Martin
TB 7 2.09
9
Montee Ball
DEN 4 1.12
10
Giovani Bernard
CIN 4 2.06
11
Le’Veon Bell
PIT 12 3.06
12
Arian Foster
HOU 10 2.08
13
Andre Ellington
ARI 4 3.02

The second tier of running backs is deep and populated by talented backs, albeit ones with some question marks, even if those question marks are minor. Will Lynch wear down? Can Murray, Ball and Foster remain healthy? Will Bernard and Ellington get enough touches to attain RB1 status? Can Martin bounce back and is Bell more than just a volume guy? While this group is talented, it’s not talented enough to stop fantasy owners from considering the top six or seven wide receivers, the top three quarterbacks and Jimmy Graham ahead of the players in this tier. Of particular concern are Ellington and Foster with Bernard also struggling in the preseason.

Mike’s Take: I often felt like this tier was getting too big when doing our rankings, but really, pretty similar risk-reward profiles across the board. We’ve had Doug Martin higher than most rankings since the start of fantasy prep season, probably too high before, but now reasonable with recent circumstances in the Bucs backfield. People either believe Arian Foster is going to bounce back, or he won’t, without much in between. I’m avoiding drafting him, letting someone else take the chance.

Tier 3
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
14
Zac Stacy
STL 4 3.05
15
C.J. Spiller
BUF 9 4.01
16
Ryan Mathews
SD 10 4.05
17
Alfred Morris
WAS 10 2.12
18
Shane Vereen
NE 10 4.05
19
Ben Tate
CLE 4 5.08
20
Reggie Bush
DET 9 3.08

The warts really begin to show in the 3rd tier of running backs. At this point in your draft, feel comfortable grabbing Julius Thomas and Rob Gronkowski at tight end as well as any wide receiver ranked in the Top 15. Mathews, Morris, Vereen, Tate and Bush all have question marks regarding how much they will be used. While Stacy was productive as a rookie, there was a reason he lasted until the 5th round of the NFL Draft, and he was clearly a volume play given his 3.9 yards per carry average. In addition, his performance in the preseason has been disconcerting with reports out of St. Louis that Benny Cunningham could muscle his way into making this more of a timeshare situation. Spiller has the most upside in this group but he is a boom/bust type of pick with the Buffalo Bills coaching staff unwilling to bend their offensive philosophy to get him the ball in space. There is talent in this tier but also some risk. The next tier features safer options, albeit with less upside.

Mike’s Take: Spiller is a tough one to figure out. The Bills should run a lot, benefitting Spiller, but he was a real disappointment last year. The Bills overall offense looks poor, which makes things sketchy for one of your starting running backs. I really like Mathews’ talent. Can he stay healthy and where is his dedication level at? Two big questions. I’m really thinking Shane Vereen could be a S.O.D. (steal of the draft) candidate lately, but given his anticipated role, on the Patriots no less, it is hard to push him up any higher in the rankings.

Tier 4
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
21
Rashad Jennings
NYG 8 3.11
22
Toby Gerhart
JAC 11 4.02
23
Ray Rice
BAL 11 5.01
24
Maurice Jones-Drew
OAK 5 6.07
25
Frank Gore
SF 8 4.08
26
Bishop Sankey ®
TEN 9 5.07

Tier 4 may actually feature some workhorse runners although none of these running backs are strong candidates to finish in the Top 10. Even Rice seems like a long shot even though he’s been there, done that. Jennings could lose some goal line touches to Andre Williams but he looks like a three down back entering the season as does Gerhart. MJD has looked solid and we all know Darren McFadden‘s injury history. Gore isn’t flashy but he should attain RB2 status in 2014. Sankey needs to overtake Shonn Greene, but once that happens, we expect him to be a feature back. Most of this group represents solid value at their current ADP, and they are going off the board at the point where the wide receivers feature greater risk.

Mike’s Take: On the one hand, Jennings looks like a good fit for the Giants offense. On the other hand, its Rashad Jennings, who has bounced around a bit and never really strung together a consistent streak of solid performances. Gerhart maybe never had an opportunity to do it before, but we are skeptical, and even as a high volume carry guy, how is that going to translate in the Jaguars offense? MJD does look good, and is still coming off the board as an RB3 most of the time. He looks like a worthwhile risk. It may be smoke and mirrors by the Titans indicating Sankey isn’t ready to be their workhorse, yet. We’ve seen it before with teams and rookies. That is part of the risk rolling the dice on rookies. If you draft him, then make sure you don’t absolutely need to rely on him – keep expectations in check and hope for the best.

Tier 5
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
27
Chris Johnson
NYJ 11 5.09
28
Lamar Miller
MIA 5 6.12
29
Pierre Thomas
NO 6 7.01
30
Trent Richardson
IND 10 6.03
31
Steven Jackson
ATL 9 7.06
32
Joique Bell
DET 9 5.04

A quick look at this tier makes it clear why Tier 4 is the place to be. Outside of Trent Richardson, this group features little upside. And even T-rich’s upside must be questioned with his continued struggles in the preseason and the Colts shoddy offensive line. Johnson and Jackson are aging backs while Thomas seems destined for pass receiving duties. Both Miller and Bell figures to split the work in the range of 55/45 with their backfield mates (Knowshon Moreno and Reggie Bush), although it’s up for debate as to which players in each pairing will handle the larger role.

Mike’s Take: Outside of Pierre Thomas, if he drops far enough, these guys might as well all be tagged, “do not draft” on my list. Not that I have anything against Bell, but he typically gets drafted somewhat earlier than I would take him. As for the rest, Richardson continues to look sluggish, it is hard to imagine Jackson staying healthy a month much less a season, Johnson continues to be over-drafted, and Miller could easily be surpassed by Moreno at this point. Do I want to take the chance Miller holds him off, to own a piece of the Dolphins running game? More than likely, I’m drafting other positions around the time these guys are coming off the board.

Tier 6
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
33
Mark Ingram
NO 6 9.09
34
Bernard Pierce
BAL 11 8.05
35
Knowshon Moreno
MIA 5 8.08
36
DeAngelo Williams
CAR 12 10.03
37
Danny Woodhead
SD 10 8.11
38
Darren McFadden
OAK 5 10.12

There is a large gap in the ADP ranges between Tiers 5 and 6. Unfortunately, the ADP gap doesn’t lead to the increase in value that you would expect. Ingram seems ready to finally assume a lead role in New Orleans and Moreno could easily open the season as Miami’s starter. Pierce’s preseason concussion has stunted his momentum while Williams and Woodhead offer pretty much no upside. As for McFadden, I’m fine if somebody grabs him and watches him bust out.

Mike’s Take: I pretty much agree with Dave with one slight exception. In terms of getting a third RB on your roster, I don’t see a ton of difference in outlook between this group and the group above them, except at a discounted price. When the prior group is up in the draft, solidify your receivers or QB position. Then at this point, maybe grab a pair and play the odds one will exceed expectations. Lean to upside with Ingram, Pierce and Moreno. Another reason to de-emphasize depth at RB – they are always easier to grab off waivers as the season progresses. Woodhead is unheralded and will never offer much trade value, but he can put up solid points, especially in a PPR league.

Tier 7
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
39
Carlos Hyde ®
SF 8 8.06
40
Christine Michael
SEA 4 12.01
41
Terrance West ®
CLE 4 9.07
42
Devonta Freeman ®
ATL 9 9.02
43
Knile Davis
KC 6 13.03

This is the upside tier with all of these running backs having the ability to have breakout seasons provided the players ahead of them on the depth chart suffer significant injuries. While Hyde has looked solid, we fully expect him to work in a pure backup role in his rookie season. West has done little to challenge Ben Tate in Cleveland while Michael can’t seem to overtake Robert Turbin for the lead backup role to Marshawn Lynch in Seattle. That leaves Freeman as the player in this tier most likely to earn a major role with only the aging Steven Jackson ahead of him.

Mike’s Take: Upside tier? I was calling it the handcuff tier. Although the way drafts go these days, in my experience, less and less does the owner of say, Marshawn Lynch, acquire Lynch’s anticipated direct handcuff, Michael. This could also be known as the lottery ticket tier, and everyone likes playing the lottery for a big potential payoff. Just make sure when you buy your ticket, you aren’t overpaying. This tier is also very much in flux as players with the most “upside” move in and out of here constantly.

Tier 8
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
44
Khiry Robinson
NO 6 11.05
45
Ahmad Bradshaw
IND 10 11.10
46
James Starks
GB 9 13.09
47
Shonn Greene
TEN 9 12.08
48
Stevan Ridley
NE 10 7.08
49
Darren Sproles
PHI 7 7.11
50
Jeremy Hill ®
CIN 4 10.04
51
Chris Ivory
NYJ 11 12.05
52
LeGarrette Blount
PIT 12 11.07
53
Lance Dunbar
DAL 11 13.12

At this point in your draft, you’re pulling slots although some pulls are better than others. With a 7th round ADP, Ridley and especially Sproles are overvalued. Out of this group, Bradshaw, Hill, Ivory and Dunbar are solid values. Of particular interest are Ivory, who seems a much better match in the Jets offense than free agent signee Chris Johnson, and Jeremy Hill, who could emerge as a solid RB3 if the Bengals determine that Giovani Bernard is more effective in a committee role than as a workhorse back. While Greene may open the season getting a fair amount of touches in Tennessee, we expect that to change early in 2014.

Mike’s Take: This is a mixed bag of handcuffs and role players that could contribute from time to time in the right matchup, and contribute more if one of their teammates goes down. With recent rumors Ridley might not even make the Patriots final roster, his ADP is likely overstated, but he could bounce back quickly if (when) he finds employment elsewhere. Personal preference is the name of the game here, and mine include Bradshaw, Blount and Dunbar.

Tier 9
Rank
Player
Team Bye ADP
54
Tre Mason ®
STL 4 14.02
55
Fred Jackson
BUF 9 7.12
56
Andre Williams ®
NYG 8 10.03
57
Bryce Brown
BUF 9 –
58
Stepfan Taylor
ARI 4 –
59
Jonathan Grimes
HOU 10 –
60
James White ®
NE 10 13.06

While there are some solid values in Tier 8, that isn’t as much of the case in Tier 9 outside of one major exception. With Arian Foster struggling with injuries in the preseason, there is no valid reason why Jonathan Grimes is going undrafted in standard 12 team, 15 roster spot formats. His ADP is likely depressed given the late start getting on fantasy players’ radars.

Mike’s Take: Even in 12-team leagues of moderate depth, many of these guys aren’t getting drafted, but you need to know the names so you are ready to grab them off the waiver wire when the time comes a starter goes down. Also refer to our “Not Ranked – On The Radar” section of our RB cheatsheet.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

  • 1
  • 2
  • Next Page »
  • Fantasy Baseball
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Last Player Picked
    • Rankings
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats
  • Fantasy Football
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Rankings
    • Projections
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats

Copyright © 2020 Draft Buddy • Privacy Policy