DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

Top Rookie Tight Ends—Potential Immediate Impact from Baltimore Ravens Maxx Williams

By Leave a Comment

While we typically don't expect much fantasy production from rookie tight ends, Baltimore Ravens Maxx Williams has an opportunity to make an early impact.

While we typically don’t expect much fantasy production from rookie tight ends, Baltimore Ravens Maxx Williams has an opportunity to make an early impact.

When someone mentions the 2014 Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots, what immediately comes to mind? Do not say Deflategate!

As a fantasy football player the first thing I think of is Rob Gronkowski. Gronkowski (Gronk) is the best tight end in the game. He is an absolute beast, worthy of a touchdown dance called the “Gronk Smash”.

Gronk is in an elite tight end tier by himself, while Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen are a tier below. Beyond those three guys, the tight end position is a bit of a toss up for fantasy production. Tight ends take more time to develop than most positions, and even a player who is very valuable to his team may spend more time blocking than catching passes.

Although history shows tight ends do not produce relevant fantasy stats their rookie year (2014 top rookie tight ends Eric Ebron and Austin Seferian-Jenkins scored a combined 54 points in standard scoring leagues), with NFL teams and coaching staffs searching for and pushing to create the next Gronk, you never know when someone may breakout.

Here is my list of top rookie tight ends for 2015:

1. Maxx Williams, Ravens

Clearly the best tight end taken in the 2015 NFL Draft, Maxx Williams goes to the Baltimore Ravens. With Dennis Pitta coming off his second hip injury, it is very uncertain if he’ll be ready at the start of the NFL season. That being said, it was very clear the Ravens were planning on adding a tight end during the draft regardless of Pitta’s status. The Ravens like to use one tight end who plays as a threat up the seam or in the flat. New Ravens offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, during his tenure in Chicago, relied heavily on tight end Martellus Bennett, with Bennett finishing in the Top 5 tight ends in 2014. The main competition for Williams is Crockett Gillmore. Any positive showings in the passing game from Williams during mini-camp and preseason could land him a starting position. With quarterback Joe Flacco constantly looking at the tight end as a check-down option, Williams should have a bright future with the Ravens, and perhaps even make an immediate impact as a rookie.

2. Clive Walford, Raiders

Chalk up another young weapon to the Oakland Raiders. Wide receiver Amari Cooper should gobble up targets and catches from sophomore quarterback Derek Carr, however, the Raiders offer Clive Walford the opportunity to become an integral part of their offense for the next few years. Many compare Walford to Indianapolis Colts tight end Dwayne Allen. I believe Walford has more upside and athleticism in terms of pass catching. Mychal Rivera had a decent year in 2014 with Carr, however, there is much room for improvement at the tight end position and Walford has an opportunity to fill that void. With the Raiders still limited in offensive weapons, Walford might see a fair share of targets from Carr, making Walford a good investment for future years.

3. Jesse James, Steelers

With arguably the best fantasy wide receiver in the game in Antonio Brown, the Pittsburgh Steelers are looking for more weapons to help spread the defense out. Veteran Steelers tight end Heath Miller is aging quickly, so Pittsburgh invested in Jesse James in the 2015 NFL Draft. Although Miller is getting older, he still was able to produce a Top 10 fantasy performance in 2014. James still has some development to work on, but he can offer quarterback Ben Roethlisberger an additional weapon in the red zone with his large size (6’7”). James’ price in fantasy drafts is extremely cheap, so his potential to surpass Miller makes for a worthy investment in dynasty leagues.

4. Tyler Kroft, Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals are in need for a consistent, healthy tight end. The Bengals’ first “Tyler” at the position, 2013 rookie draft pick Tyler Eifert, is close to being considered a bust. His rookie season was a typical rookie tight end season with 39 receptions for 445 yards and two touchdowns. In 2014, Eifert suffered a dislocated elbow in the first game of the season and was out the remainder of the year. The Bengals haven’t seen much production from Eifert for their investment. Tyler Kroft is an all-around complete athlete who could have a better pro career than his modest college stats suggest. With the Bengals affinity to run two tight end formations, Kroft should see the field quickly with a chance to earn valuable targets in the red zone.

5. A.J. Derby, Patriots

Any tight end playing with quarterback Tom Brady and opposite Gronk has a chance for success. A.J. Derby might not see the field immediately but Gronk sees double coverage every play and the wide receivers for the New England Patriots have not been spectacular, so the opportunity for a tight end to thrive in this offense is there. Derby is a speculative add for deep dynasty leagues.

Top Rookie Quarterbacks—Winston, Mariota Potential Redraft Options, Plus Handful of Dynasty Prospects

By Leave a Comment

Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie QB Jameis Winston has quite a bit more to work with on offense than Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota. There is some redraft potential here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie QB Jameis Winston has quite a bit more to work with on offense than Tennessee Titans Marcus Mariota. There is some redraft potential here.

Almost every year there are one or two highly touted rookie quarterbacks that fans expect to thrive their first season in the NFL. It does not help that the NFL hype machine is working overdrive with respect to these players, focusing so much attention on them.

In 2013, it was EJ Manuel and Geno Smith, both of whom have been disappointments. In 2014, Johnny Manziel was a major bust and Blake Bortles was underwhelming, while Teddy Bridgewater and Derek Carr showed promise but were not particularly useful for fantasy.

Perhaps the 2012 class of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson, in which each of these players finished Top 12 in fantasy points per game, is too fresh in our memories. This group is the exception though, not the norm. It usually takes at least one season for a quarterback to get a true feel for the NFL and enter fantasy football relevancy.

Even though fan bases put pressure on teams to start their new young quarterback early, and teams often bow to that pressure, the best approach for fantasy players is likely set expectations low and hope for the best. The player will quite possibly be overwhelmed like Manuel, but may fall into an ideal situation and blossom like Griffin (as a rookie).

Do we have a Griffin situation for 2015? Here are my post-NFL Draft Top 5 Rookie Quarterbacks:

1. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

With the first overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, quarterback Jameis Winston went to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. One of the most hotly debated rookie quarterbacks coming out of college due to off-field issues, the Buccaneers made sure to do their research on Winston. Boasting a BCS Championship, a Heisman Trophy and a 26-1 career record as a starter in college, Winston is, arguably, the most NFL-ready of all rookie quarterbacks. Winston will be under center Day One. He gets the pleasure of throwing to veteran WR Vincent Jackson, last season’s rookie sensation receiver Mike Evans, and tight end sleeper Austin Seferian-Jenkins. With Charles Sims likely assuming a larger role in the running game, this means Winston should be spreading the ball around and utilizing quick reads. With the franchise in his hands and weapons to be dangerous, consider spending a higher rookie pick on Winston than usual for a QB in your dynasty leagues. While we are keeping redraft expectations in check, he is a fringe starter in QB-flex leagues, and is a potentially useful bench player in 12-team or larger, traditional start one QB leagues.

2. Marcus Mariota, Titans

The most speculation leading up to the 2015 NFL Draft was when Marcus Mariota will be drafted and to which team. Rumors were swirling the former Oregon Ducks quarterback would be reunited with his former coach Chip Kelly in Philadelphia, or go the San Diego Chargers, or Cleveland Browns, but none of that came to fruition. Instead, Mariota went second overall to the Tennessee Titans. With a 36-5 record as a starter for the Oregon Ducks, Mariota is a dual-threat quarterback. He doesn’t have as strong an arm or pocket presence as Winston, but can hurt defenses with his legs. The Titans offense is in complete rebuild mode. Not only are the receivers young, between Justin Hunter, Kendall Wright and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham, but the Titans running game is also a work-in-progress, featuring sophomore Bishop Sankey and rookie David Cobb. Tough to say whether the Titans will roll out Mariota or let Zach Mettenberger take some lumps first, but the Titans travel to face the Buccaneers Week 1, so we know who the NFL has in mind for this matchup.

Dynasty Prospects

Outside of Winston and Mariota, the other quarterbacks drafted in 2015 were selected as backups who may develop into future replacements for current starting quarterbacks. All are dynasty stash and hold picks, and not draftable for redraft leagues.

Bryce Petty, Jets

In 2014, the New York Jets were abysmal at the quarterback position between Geno Smith and Michael Vick. In Week 8 last season versus the Buffalo Bills, Geno Smith had more interceptions (3) than completions (2, of 8 attempts). Yes, the Jets are in desperate need for a franchise quarterback. New Head Coach Todd Bowles is hoping Bryce Petty will be that guy. Unfortunately, Petty still has some developing to do and may not get a chance to start for another year or two; that is unless the very-opined Jets fan base has anything to say about it. In Petty’s first full season for the Baylor Bears, he passed for 4,200 yards, 32 touchdowns and only three interceptions. He also rushed for 14 touchdowns. The Jets have some offensive weapons in Eric Decker, Brandon Marshall and Jace Amaro, but if Smith falters the Jets likely turn to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick before Petty this season.

Garrett Grayson, Saints

Garrett Grayson has the privilege to learn from Super Bowl winning quarterback Drew Brees. The investment in Grayson in the third round of the NFL Draft shows that Head Coach Sean Payton is preparing for the future without an aging Brees. Brees is still a few years away from hanging up the towel, so that gives Payton time to develop Grayson into the future franchise quarterback. With the acquisition of running back C.J. Spiller, and trading away Jimmy Graham and burner receiver Kenny Stills, it is apparent the Saints are leaning towards a more run-based offense, which takes pressure off of Brees and may help extend his career. Still, at 36 years old, it is a good time for the Saints to develop Brees’ successor.

Brett Hundley, Packers

Just like Grayson, Brett Hundley lands immediately into the backup role and opportunity to learn from one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers. The Green Bay Packers coaching staff likes athletic quarterbacks and Hundley fits that mold. Hundley needs to work on his pocket presence, but that develops with practice and time. While Hundley is not any sort of immediate threat to Rodgers, should A-Rod get injured then Hundley has an excellent supporting cast to work with and help streamline his development.

Sean Mannion, Rams

St. Louis Rams made a surprise trade during free agency when they traded away oft-injured quarterback Sam Bradford for former Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles. Foles had an impressive rookie season in 2013, finished third in fantasy points per game, but was off to a bad start for the Eagles last season prior to breaking his collarbone. Now with the Rams, Foles will have a short leash with Head Coach Jeff Fisher. Mannion is a big man with a big arm; and will definitely be groomed for a future in St. Louis, and could find himself starting sooner than expected.

Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers—Can’t Match 2014 Class But Amari Cooper, Kevin White Headline Nice Potential

By Leave a Comment

Regardless of the first running backs getting drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft this year since 2012, many changes in the game in recent years have driven home the fact the NFL is a passing league.

As more college talent continues to flow towards developing the passing game, and NFL passing stats increase, the wide receiver position is deep for fantasy football players. As Dave opined in his early WR rankings however, 1,000 yard receivers are nice, but the touchdown scorers are the ones ultimately making a difference to your fantasy team.

In 2014, we saw, undoubtedly, the best rookie wide receiver class ever. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr., Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin made regular appearances on fantasy highlight reels, while Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews and Jarvis Landry all made names for themselves.

Thus, the overvaluing of rookie wide receivers has begun – which by the way could help you capitalize on trading for an elite veteran receiver that can help you win now. Unfortunately, this year, I do not believe as many rookie wide receivers will make as big of an immediate impact as in 2014.

There is always potential though, and here are my post-NFL Draft Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers:

1. Amari Cooper, Raiders

Arguably the best wide receiver in the 2015 NFL Draft, Amari Cooper was selected by the Oakland Raiders 4th overall. Oakland has been a wasteland for fantasy players over the past few years, however, they now may have some draftable talent. Quarterback Derek Carr finished 2014, his rookie season, with the seventh-most passing attempts in the NFL. With the departure of James Jones, Cooper should be Carr’s top target from Day One. With many fantasy owners shying away from Oakland players, Cooper could be a steal come draft day, especially in PPR leagues, where a 100-catch season is possible.

2. Kevin White, Bears

There have been dark clouds following the Chicago Bears this offseason. It is obvious the Bears’ defense needs improvement, but new General Manager Ryan Pace decided to make a splash on draft day adding Kevin White to an already strong set of skilled offensive players. The departure of Brandon Marshall leaves no doubt Alshon Jeffery is quarterback Jay Cutler’s top receiving target. The Bears still have a tremendous dual-threat running back in Matt Forte, plus tight end Martellus Bennett (admittedly, rumored to be on the trading block). Each of these players should continue to demand high targets from Cutler. However, White, who offers a great mix of size (6’ 2.5”), speed (4.35 40-yard dash) and strength, should slide into the number two wide receiver position ahead of recently acquired Eddie Royal and add a spark for this offense that struggled in 2014. White could shine early given the attention opposing defenses need to give his new teammates.

3. Nelson Agholor, Eagles

Nelson Agholor may have landed in one of the best situations for a wide receiver with the Philadelphia Eagles and Head Coach Chip Kelly’s offense. Agholor should easily slide into the number two role and give sophomore Jordan Matthews some tough competition for targets. The quarterback situation is a bit murky between oft-injured Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez (and Tim Tebow?). Bradford should win the starting gig. The top receiver in Philadelphia the past two seasons has put up terrific fantasy numbers:

  • In 2013, DeSean Jackson totaled 82 receptions, 1,332 receiving yards and nine touchdowns
  • In 2014, Jeremy Maclin totaled 85 receptions, 1,318 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns

Whoever wins the top spot in Philadelphia should have a great season. Come draft day, Agholor’s price will not nearly be as steep as the likes of Cooper and White.

4. Breshad Perriman, Ravens

It is very difficult to rank Breshad Perriman due to criticisms of him being “an unfinished product” and “still raw”. However, the upside and opportunity, in my opinion, outweigh the criticisms. Baltimore is looking for a stand-out receiver and Perriman might just be that guy. Over the past three seasons, the top fantasy scoring wide receiver on the Ravens averaged 64 receptions on 128 targets, 1,016 yards, and six touchdowns. Those are not fantasy WR1 numbers. There isn’t a ton of immediate upside here, but learning from veteran Steve Smith and with a quality quarterback in Joe Flacco, Perriman can develop into that WR1 role and perhaps do more with it than his predecessors. For leagues starting three wide receivers, Perriman is worth grabbing given his opportunity to produce, especially for his draft price.

5. DeVante Parker, Dolphins

NFL Draft expert Mel Kiper said DeVante Parker to the Miami Dolphins was the “best first round pick” of the NFL Draft. Parker offers a nice target for quarterback Ryan Tannehill. However, Parker joins a suddenly crowded Dolphins offense. Tannehill has second year Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills and recently signed veteran Greg Jennings at wide receiver, plus tight end Jordan Cameron. On top of those receiver options, running back Lamar Miller proved himself capable last year under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor and may earn more carries this season. Parker is likely a year away from a truly significant fantasy impact, but with some injury-prone players, Parker may get the opportunity to prove he belongs on the field.

6. Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans

Tennessee Titans are in the early stages of a complete rebuild. Already young on offense to begin with, after drafting anticipated franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota, running back David Cobb and wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, this team will undoubtedly go through some growing pains. Green-Beckham has been compared to Brandon Marshall. Hopefully that comparison translates to only on-field production as opposed to off-field distractions. He will compete against Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright as the top receiver for the Titans. Though the immediate returns might be small due to some struggles while they develop, stashing Green-Beckham could be worth the wait.

7. Jaelen Strong, Texans

Jaelen Strong will join the Houston Texans who were looking to bulk up their receiving corps. Head coach Bill O’Brien seems to be building an offense that can offer scheme flexibility for the wide receivers. 2014 breakout sensation DeAndre Hopkins will move up into the number one gig with the departure of Andre Johnson. Strong will compete with Cecil Shorts for targets opposite Hopkins. The only negative is the lack of a quality quarterback, with Brian Hoyer currently ahead of Ryan Mallett and Tom Savage on the depth chart. I expect the Texans to draft a quarterback in the near future (2016). Until then, Strong will gain NFL experience and could be a sleeper option come draft day.

8. Devin Funchess, Panthers

Devin Funchess joins 2014 rookie standout Kelvin Benjamin, and not much else at wide receiver, for the Carolina Panthers. Some are calling them the Twin Towers in Carolina due to their big, tall physique. Quarterback Cam Newton loves his high arching throws, so Funchess provides Newton with another red zone target to go up and get the ball. Carolina isn’t known for their passing game, but continuing to add skill at the receiver position could indicate some change in philosophy for the Panthers.

9. Phillip Dorsett, Colts

To the untrained eye, Phillip Dorsett being drafted by the Indianapolis Colts raises many questions since the Colts have so many receiving options already. However, T.Y. Hilton, who is in a contract year, may walk away in free agency next year, so with Dorsett being compared physically to Hilton, consider the pick an insurance policy. With the offseason addition of Andre Johnson, and sophomore Donte Moncrief, Dorsett may not see the field very often this year. However, having one of the best quarterbacks in the game in Andrew Luck significantly helps a young receiver’s stock. Fantasy owners will want a piece of this offense for years to come. Stash Dorsett and be patient.

10. Devin Smith, Jets

Devin Smith is one of the best vertical threats drafted this year. Smith joins a receiving corps in New York of Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and tight end Jace Amaro. Unfortunately, besides being a deep threat, Smith does not provide much else, which is not good since quarterbacks Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick already have problems throwing the deep ball. It may be a year or two until Smith can become fantasy relevant.

Best of the Rest

Chris Conley, Chiefs

Talk about a great player but in the wrong situation. Chris Conley has great speed and explosion, but unfortunately his quarterback Alex Smith does not throw the ball down the field. Conley will slide into the number two receiver position after Jeremy Maclin, but that doesn’t mean much if his quarterback cannot/will not throw the ball deep. The wide receivers for the Kansas City Chiefs were abysmal last year, so it is extremely difficult to expect much from Conley even in the WR2 spot.

Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks are still looking for a player to replace Golden Tate and they are hoping Tyler Lockett will be that guy. Seattle did themselves and quarterback Russell Wilson a huge favor by acquiring elite tight end Jimmy Graham during free agency. With defenses focusing on Graham, speedy receivers like Lockett should find some deep ball opportunities from Wilson.