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Week 10 Moving Up, Moving Down

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Before we get to this week’s column, I’m going to broach the subject of fantasy football etiquette. That’s right. Just like you shouldn’t chew with your mouth open, interrupt others when they are speaking and forget to flush the toilet when you’ve done number two, there is etiquette in fantasy football.

This week, there were a number of significant injuries at running back and when injuries happen at fantasy football’s key position, trade activity heats up. And with trading deadlines approaching in many leagues, there’s even more reason for big trades this week.

A pair of dynasty leagues that I’m in have seen a number of dubious moves this season so as the trade deadline in your league approaches, try to remember that other owners put their hard earned cash on the line to play in your league. If you’re out of contention, don’t give away your solid, or even decent players for 10 cents on the dollar. If you’re trading away a stud, you need at least two solid players you can have for next year in return and maybe a draft pick if your league has a rookie draft. If keepers are limited in your league, then you need one really good keeper.

Giving away solid players for marginal assets for next year (think Donnie Avery’s, Justin Forsett’s and low round draft picks) puts the money others have put up at risk all because you’ve helped load up a solid team and got back pretty much nothing in return for next year. Ask yourself these two questions – do you want to be that guy? and what if the shoe was on the other foot and you were P.O.’ed at that guy?

Don’t give away your backup quarterback, a solid handcuff and a stud IDP player for a 4th round pick. Have some consideration. Have some fantasy football etiquette. Your league will be better for it.

Moving Up

  • Jason Snelling, Falcons – Meet fantasy football’s Pickup of the Week, provided of course that Michael Turner misses a few games with the dreaded high ankle sprain. Of course, he might just have a normal ankle sprain which is far less serious. Cardinals receiver Anquan Boldin missed only one game with a high ankle sprain and wasn’t at full health a couple of other games but the injury is of more concern to running backs. I expect Turner to miss at least a week and likely more and Snelling has looked very good with the limited opportunities he has received this season – 4.9 yards per carry, 9.4 yards per reception and two touchdowns on 51 touches. It also doesn’t hurt that the have found their running game over the last four weeks.
  • Chris Wells, Cardinals – Looks like Wells MAY finally have taken over the lead role in Arizona with his 85 yard, two touchdown performance this week against the Seahawks. The 32 receiving yards were just gravy. Wells is a punishing runner and his presence may be what’s required to force opposing defenses out of the cover two look that the Cardinals have been facing all season and which has reduced their ability to make big plays in the passing game. Wells hasn’t been used much this season and his fresh legs might yield big time production over the balance of the regular season.
  • Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, Cardinals – I said two weeks ago that the Cards had a schedule that featured sad sack pass defenses the rest of the way. Since the Carolina debacle, they have scored eight touchdowns in two games. If Wells can jump start the running game, it will only add to the team’s production in the passing game.
  • Tom Brady, Patriots – Four straight 300 yards games and 1,395 passing yards to go along with 13 touchdown passes qualifies for moving up. Should have been here sooner. It says here that Brady will surpass Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning to be the top ranked fantasy quarterback by season’s end.
  • Steven Jackson, Rams – Three straight games with over 100-yards rushing and touchdowns in each of the last two games. Looks like Jackson is ready to fulfill his role as a top five fantasy back.
  • Ricky Williams, Dolphins – Williams was already a low end RB2 depending on the match up as well as a solid flex play but he moves into high end RB2 status with Ronnie Brown expected to miss at least a week with an ankle injury. Opportune timing given that there are some struggling run defenses ahead on the schedule. Grab this guy if you can. You will be rewarded.
  • Ladell Betts, Redskins – There was some concern early in the week that the Redskins would rotate Betts with Rock Cartwright because of Betts’ ankle sprain but the rotation didn’t materialize this week against the Broncos. Betts finished with 26 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown and Cartwright failed to find the end zone. Don’t expect the Redskins to run it 40 times a game like they did this week but Betts is looking like a decent option until Clinton Portis returns from the concussion he suffered last week.
  • Matt Forte, Chicago – His schedule is ugly but it looks like the Bears have been watching the Cardinals and learning a thing or two. Basically, if the offensive line can’t run block then let’s throw quick hitters to our receivers and screens to our backs and that’ll be the running game. Results – 120 yards through the air for Forte.
  • Lee Evans, Bills – Don’t look now but Mr. Inconsistency is putting up solid numbers every week with touchdowns in three of his last four games, including a two touchdown performance. Over the next six weeks, he faces four pass defenses ranked 25th or lower.
  • T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seahawks – There are so many lessons that football can teach you. With T.J., it’s if you whine, you will receive. Or the squeaky wheel gets the grease. And so, it is that after whining for the football, Houshmandzadeh had an incredible 17 targets this week, six more than his previous high. Good for him that he turned them into nine receptions for 165 yards and bad for the Seahawks for teaching their players that if you whine, you will receive.
  • Roy Williams, Cowboys – I think I’ve had this guy Moving Down more times than there have been weeks in the season so I will begrudgingly put him as Moving Up based on his 180 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. I’m cringing as I write this. Next task – draft up Week 11’s column with Williams Moving Down.
  • Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Split the carries with Kolby Smith this week on a 2-1 ratio and turned his share of 18 into 103 yards and a touchdown. And in case you were thinking that might happen every week you might want to know that was the first rushing touchdown for the Chiefs in 2009.
  • Donnie Avery, Rams – It took until Week 10 but Avery finally delivered the break out performance that his owners were hoping would occur on a more regular basis. He put up 67 yards and two touchdowns on four receptions this week against a banged up Saints secondary. His upcoming schedule is favourable so he is a worth a look as a low end WR3 or for depth at wide receiver.
  • Justin Forsett, Seahawks – I told you last week that Julius Jones would be useful in Week 12 against the Rams and in Week 15 against the Bucs. Take out Jones and put in Forsett. At this point, the 3-5 Seahawks know what they have in Jones (not much) so they might as well find out what they have in Forsett (likely not much). For dynasty owners, no, I do not see either player entering next season as the starter in Seattle.
  • LeSean McCoy, Eagles – With Brian Westbrook back in the line-up, McCoy was relegated to backup status and seemed to be a mere afterthought, barely seeing the field until Westbrook went out with his second concussion of the year. Expect Westbrook to be out for a number of weeks and McCoy to assume the lead role in an Eagles offense that has looked explosive at times this season.
  • Jason Avant, Eagles – We keep hearing how much the Eagles coaches like Avant but with 15 catches in eight games, they weren’t backing up their words with action. That is, until this week when Avant turned nine targets into eight receptions for 156 yards. Sure, the Eagles were behind early and that helped but he performed well and it’s not like the Eagles are about to become a running team anytime soon.
  • Brandon Gibson, Rams – Who? Yeah, the guy the Rams got from the Eagles for linebacker Will Witherspoon, that’s who. Sorry, my kids like Dr. Seuss. Anyway, the Eagles, who know a thing or two about acquiring talented players including wide receivers (at least lately), were impressed enough by Gibson, their 6th round pick this year, that they opened the season with seven wide receivers on the roster. This week he went off for seven receptions and 93 yards. With Keenan Burton suffering what looked to be a serious knee injury, Gibson figures to move into the starting line up next week.
  • Larry Johnson, Free Agent – As I said above, there were significant injuries this week at running back and L.J. is the best available veteran on the free agent market. It says here that somebody bites early this week. [This just in – it looks like it’s going to be the Bengals.]
  • Michael Bush, Raiders – With Darren McFadden out with an injury and the team going nowhere, they give the ball to Justin Fargas and reduce the number of touches Bush gets. Then when McFadden returns, Bush gets 14 carries which he turns into 119 yards including a long run where he got hauled down at the one yard line. Fargas had ten carries and McFadden only four. God love ’em, these are the Raiders.

Moving Down

  • Bill Belichick, Patriots – Bill, was the hood pulled down too far over your head last night? Please tell me you really thought it was 3rd down. Otherwise, you’re seriously losing it. Really. And just a quick reminder that a one yard pass when you need two yards – not exactly a good idea.
  • Michael Turner, Falcons – Potential high ankle sprain means big time worries for Turner owners. MRI results should be released today or Tuesday so act accordingly. It might be time to start working the phones for a replacement.
  • Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – He has an ankle injury, he was on crutches after the game and the Dolphins play on Thursday in Carolina. He’s almost certainly out this week and potentially for several games if he has a high ankle sprain.
  • Brian Westbrook, Eagles – In his first game since suffering a concussion three weeks ago, Westbrook left this week’s game against the Chargers with another concussion. At this point, Westbrook’s season is in serious jeopardy with an outside chance that his career may be over.
  • Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson has had a remarkable comeback season and has provided his fantasy owners with incredible value until he went out this week against the Steelers with 22 yards rushing due to a hip injury. He’s expected to be fine for next week but this type of injury could reduce his effectiveness or knock him out again during a game.
  • Julius Jones, Seahawks – Man, where do you start. Reports indicate that he has a broken rib and that the injury caused him to have bleeding in the lungs. If that’s me, I’m not rushing back to the football field.
  • Kyle Orton, Broncos – Injured ankles for quarterbacks sound bad but at least Orton injured his left ankle which is not the one us pushes off on. He sounded optimistic about next week so it does not appear that he will miss significant time.
  • Darren McFadden, Raiders – That’s right – Kyle Orton’s ankle injury is more significant than the lack of use of this year’s big breakout candidate at running back. Four carries for 11 yards in his return. Not what his fantasy owners were hoping for. McFadden is essentially not startable until he puts together a couple of decent games which seems unlikely. See ya.
  • Santana Moss, Redskins – No touchdowns in his last five games, a stretch in which he is averaging 43 yards a game. Yuck.
  • Correll Buckhalter, Broncos – Going back to the teaching theme, here is what Josh McDaniels taught Buckhalter this week – if you fumble, I will bench you. And so a decent flex play turned into two carries for 11 yards.
  • Alex Smith, 49ers – The Alex Smith feel good story lasted exactly three weeks. Then he went out and had 118 yards passing and no touchdowns against a struggling (I’m being kind here) Bears pass defense.
  • Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon, Colts – I haven’t looked at their stats and I don’t need to. Both of these guys played so bad last night that the Colts coaches have no choice but to reduce their targets going forward. After those performances, I’m willing to throw out a waiver claim for Anthony Gonzalez if need be.
  • Torry Holt, Jaguars – With eight catches for 78 yards over the last three weeks, Holt’s 33 year old legs are looking pretty tired. It doesn’t help that he hasn’t found the end zone yet this year. Off to Dumpsville for him.

Not Sold Yet

  • Reggie Bush, Saints – Nice stat line for Bush this week with a touchdown on the ground and in the air as well as 98 total yards. However, here is what is more relevant – he hasn’t topped 100 total yards yet this season, this was only his second double digit fantasy points game of the season and it came against the lowly Rams. His success is based solely on touchdowns (six in nine games) and guys who average 9.3 touches and 53 yards a game don’t generally get touchdowns in two out of every three games.
  • Marc Bulger, Rams – The Rams quarterback had a nice game this week with 298 yards, two touchdowns and an interception against a solid Saints defense. Sounds good. But a closer look reveals maybe it’s not so good after all. The Saints defense is solid but they were without starters Sedrick Ellis, Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper this week and also lost Tracy Porter during the game. Despite missing three starters in the secondary, the Saints chose to play eight men in the box on every play (including 3rd and 15). Plus, Bulger has topped 200 yards in only two of eight games this year and is averaging 0.625 touchdown passes per game.
  • Nate Burleson, Seahawks – Sure, he’s overrated and I probably should dump him into Moving Down but I feel generous and nice today. So, I’m trying to look past the fact that he hasn’t scored in four games and failed to get a reception in five targets this week. The question is – should you?

Week 9 Buy Low, Sell High

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Buy Low

  • Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – It’s not exactly a Buy Low but Brown is coming off his worst game of the season with 27 yards on 11 carries against the Jets. Plus, he struggled the previous week against the Saints and his 2-week totals are 27 carries for 75 yards and a TD. It’s possible that you can sell his owner that he’s struggling because teams are clamping down on the Dolphins running game due to their struggles to pass the ball with 2nd-year quarterback Chad Henne and a cast of below average wide receivers. If it works, then Brown is definitely worth targeting because, even with is recent struggles, he’s on pace for over 1,300 total yards and 16 touchdowns.
  • Steve Slaton, Texans – Slaton has apparently fumbled away the starting gig in Houston with Ryan Moats exploding on the scene in Buffalo this past week to the tune of 151 total yards and 3 touchdowns. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has said that his backfield will be a 3-headed monster consisting of Moats, Slaton and Chris Brown. Here’s the history – Moats has never achieved extended success in the NFL since being drafted in 2005 and Brown has proven this year that he’s not even a serviceable backup. If you can trade some depth for Slaton and afford to sit him until he returns to the starting line-up, you should do it.
  • Kevin Walter, Texans – The Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels to injury and running back Steve Slaton was benched. The team’s backup tight ends are Joel Dreesen and a pair of rookies (James Casey and Anthony Hill), one of whom just underwent surgery. The Texans options are force-feeding Dreesen or increasing the role of one of their receivers and Walter’s size makes him the best option to replace what Daniels was bringing to the table.
  • Jason Witten, Cowboys – Witten was ranked as a top 3 fantasy tight end heading into the season with many pundits ranking him at number 1. However, he’s on pace to finish the season with 795 receiving yards and just 2 touchdowns which nets you 91 fantasy points on the season in standard leagues or 5.7 points per game. Frankly speaking, I’m not sold that his numbers are going to go up much but if you can get him cheap, he’s worth taking a flyer on.

Sell High

  • Matt Forte, Bears – Forte enjoyed a solid game this week against the pathetic Browns but he’s not likely to carry your squad to victory many times over the balance of the season. Other than the Rams and Packers, there are no cream puffs on the schedule. Other opponents include the Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles, Vikings (twice) and Baltimore. Plus the Lions in week 17 but that’s not going to help you much. If a team in your league thinks he’s turned the corner, then move him now.
  • LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers – The Forte situation holds true for LT as well. Nice fantasy performance this week against the Chiefs but 56 yards on 18 carries is really more bad news than good so don’t be fooled by the 2 rushing TD. The only patsies on the run schedule coming up are the Browns and the Chiefs so it might be time to move LT if the package gets you a RB1 in return.
  • Jamaal Charles, Chiefs – Sell high on a guy who just got the starting gig and is averaging a nifty 5.0 yards a carry? Yeah, that’s right. The yards per carry is misleading because it has come mostly on passing downs and often when defenses are playing soft because the Chiefs are playing from behind. Plus, the Chiefs have run the ball 203 times this year without scoring a rushing touchdown and the fact there’s no guarantee Charles will retain the job when Larry Johnson returns from injury. It says here that if somebody in your league thinks Charles will succeed where LJ failed as a RB2, then you should be selling even if the return is only a quality WR3.
  • Matt Schaub, Texans – Schaub was a top 3 quarterback heading into Week 8 against the Bills but dropped a bit due to his inability to get a passing touchdown against a solid Bills secondary. Going forward, it’s a little disconcerting that he’s lost Daniels, the top ranked fantasy tight end this season, and a solid receiving running back in Slaton due to him being benched. In addition, stud wideout Andre Johnson has just 8 catches for 125 yards and no touchdowns over the last 2 games, perhaps signalling that he is suffering lingering effects from a chest injury. Hard to sell a top rated quarterback but if the return is there, it’s worth the risk.

Week 3 Buy Low, Sell High

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Week 2 of the fantasy season has come to a close and there are likely numerous 0-2 teams whose owners are wondering what exactly happened at your league’s draft or auction. Although they aren’t likely ripe for the picking just yet, there’s always a chance they are ready to pull the trigger and give up on a player or players they were high on.

With a number of high profile players struggling to get fantasy points due mainly to poor schedules, it’s time to get aggressive on the trade front. As my gramma used to say, “if you snooze, you lose.”

Sell High

Cedric Benson, Bengals – Benson is here reluctantly and let me explain why. You likely got him cheaply in your draft or auction, he’s coming off two solid games and there are a number of disappointing backs whose owners would love to get some RB depth. The downside is that the Bengals will face the Ravens and Steelers twice and the Vikings once over the remainder of their schedule and last year they were not able to run against solid run defenses. Maybe that’s changed, maybe not. Benson’s likely your third back so check out when you need him. If those matchups aren’t favourable, move him now before his week 3 matchup against the Steelers.

Ronnie Brown, Dolphins – Hey, Brown is coming off a 2 TD, 136 yard performance – what’s not to like? Well, Ricky Williams showed Monday night why the platoon system in Miami isn’t going away any time soon. He’s too good to sit on the bench. The Dolphins run plenty so Brown will be useful against bad or mediocre run defenses but will likely have a number of 40-50 yard, 0 TD performances given their schedule. He’s worth hanging on to this week since they face a severely run challenged Charger defense. After that, it might be time to unload him.

Tim Hightower, Cardinals – Hightower is coming off two nice games. He benefitted in week 1 because the Chargers were hurting at wide receiver and playing from behind, hence his 121 yards receiving. In week 2, they got ahead early and ran often plus backup Chris Wells fumbled twice, hence 72 yards and a TD on the ground for Hightower. The schedule is soft with the Colts, Texans and Seahawks up next so his value could be up. Unfortunately, that could prove fatal if Wells moves ahead of Hightower on the depth chart during that time.

Cadillac Williams, Bucs – Williams is clearly a great story and his fantasy owners definitely got him on their rosters for ten cents on the dollar. However, he struggled in week 2 against a Bills run defense without Paul Posluszny at middle linebacker. His fantasy stats were saved by 56 yards and a TD through the air but that won’t happen many weeks. If Caddy is your RB4 and a team wants him as their RB3 and is willing to pay up, kiss him goodbye.

Trent Edwards, Bills – After two weeks, Edwards is the 8th ranked QB for fantasy purposes. However he has put up decent numbers against a Pats defense that struggled week 1 and a Bucs defense that might struggle all year. Bottom line is that he’s known as Mr. Checkdown for a reason and the weather in Buffalo isn’t exactly balmy in November and December. If someone is buying, you should be selling.

Buy Low

Matt Forte, Bears – Forte will likely never be considered a top five back in terms of talent but he is good enough to succeed in the NFL. He had an impressive rookie season but has struggled during the first two weeks of the season. However, Forte is ready to come out of his slumber with the Seahawks, Lions, Browns, Bengals and Cardinals on the schedule during the Bears next six games. Basically, it’s buy now on Forte before his stock begins to rise. It’s worth noting the Bears face the Ravens and Vikings in weeks 15 and 16.

Steve Slaton, Titans – Slaton’s poor start is even more understandable than Forte’s given he has had to face the Jets and Titans. However, head coach Gary Kubiak called him out this week, hinting the team was disappointed not to have signed Cedric Benson in the offseason. Ouch. With that extra piece of motivation and the Jags, Raiders, Cards and Bengals up next, Slaton should get it going. Week 14-16 matchups against the Seahawks, Rams and Dolphins enhance his attractiveness.

Brandon Jacobs, Giants – 121 total yards and 0 TD in two weeks isn’t what Jacobs owners envisioned. With the Giants surprisingly effective in the passing game and struggling on the ground, Jacbobs owners have to be concerned about the effectiveness of the team’s offensive line and the coming of age passing game. It says here that these are aberrations and the running game will click into high gear for the next several weeks with the Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, Saints and Cards next on tap. Get aggressive on this one.

Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, Broncos – Marshall occupied this slot last week and this week he’s joined by his running mate in Denver. Both have been major fantasy disappointments but are too talented not to get it going. Marshall obviously carries some additional risk (editorial restraints restrict from listing all of his issues) but there’s a reason he caught 206 passes over the last two years. If you think Marshall and Royal are too good to be in a rotation with Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney (and you should), then take a look at these two guys.

Carson Palmer, Bengals – With four picks in two games, the rust is clearly showing. However, the Bengals go four deep at wide receiver and Palmer is a big time talent. With Benson running well, the team’s offense could surprise this year provided the offensive line holds up its end of the bargain (no guarantee, mind you). If Palmer struggles this week against the Steelers, see what it would take to get him.

Fred Jackson, Bills – This one is for flex leagues only. He’s not here for poor performance but if Jackson’s owner is fixated on the fact Marshawn Lynch returns in week 4, then grab him. After two weeks, he has earned additional playing time when Lynch returns and there is no reason for Bills coaches to rush Lynch into the mix given Jackson’s outstanding performance. More likely, they will ease Lynch into the game plan, making Jackson pretty attractive over the next few weeks.

Donnie Avery, Rams – This isn’t a ringing endorsement for Avery. He’s been horrible over two weeks but he is the team’s most talented wide receiver. Sorry folks, there’s a reason the Falcons gave up on Laurent Robinson although he has looked good. Odds are decent that he’s available on the waiver wire in some leagues or viewed as a WR5 on many rosters. He’s worth taking a shot on if you can get him cheap.

Hold Tight

Willis McGahee, Ravens – Generally drafted as a RB3 or RB4, McGahee is looking like gold after two weeks. We had him as a sell high last week but he ran well this week and looked better than Ray Rice did. Plus, he’s been getting the goal line work.