My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Jake Faria TBR who has faced 233 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Jake Faria is currently allowing 106% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.70 (2.55 x 106%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
Main Slate
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP at home | Jake Faria TBR | 233 | 2.55 x 106% | 2.70 | +0.15 | 1.91 x 103% | 1.98 | +0.06 |
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RHP on road | Dylan Bundy BAL | 540 | 2.25 x 118% | 2.65 | +0.40 | 1.70 x 117% | 1.99 | +0.29 |
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RHP on road | Robert Stephenson CIN | 20 | 2.13 x 118% | 2.52 | +0.39 | 1.62 x 108% | 1.76 | +0.14 |
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RHP on road | Vince Velasquez PHI | 491 | 2.41 x 98% | 2.35 | -0.06 | 1.82 x 96% | 1.76 | -0.06 |
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RHP at home | Jose Urena MIA | 541 | 2.22 x 102% | 2.28 | +0.05 | 1.68 x 102% | 1.72 | +0.04 |
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RHP at home | Shane Bieber CLE | 272 | 2.10 x 103% | 2.17 | +0.07 | 1.60 x 106% | 1.69 | +0.09 |
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RHP at home | Nathan Eovaldi BOS | 294 | 2.22 x 98% | 2.17 | -0.05 | 1.67 x 99% | 1.65 | -0.02 |
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RHP at home | Marco Estrada TOR | 444 | 1.84 x 115% | 2.11 | +0.27 | 1.42 x 114% | 1.62 | +0.19 |
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LHP at home | Tyler Anderson COL | 562 | 2.10 x 100% | 2.11 | +0.00 | 1.61 x 100% | 1.60 | +0.00 |
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LHP at home | Derek Holland SFG | 525 | 1.98 x 102% | 2.03 | +0.04 | 1.51 x 102% | 1.53 | +0.02 |
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RHP on road | Kevin Gausman ATL | 587 | 1.89 x 104% | 1.98 | +0.08 | 1.46 x 106% | 1.56 | +0.09 |
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RHP at home | Felix Pena LAA | 192 | 1.86 x 107% | 1.99 | +0.13 | 1.43 x 106% | 1.52 | +0.09 |
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RHP on road | Luis Cessa NYY | 100 | 1.96 x 100% | 1.97 | +0.01 | 1.51 x 100% | 1.51 | +0.00 |
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RHP at home | Zack Wheeler NYM | 559 | 2.22 x 88% | 1.95 | -0.27 | 1.69 x 88% | 1.49 | -0.20 |
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LHP on road | Austin Gomber STL | 133 | 2.02 x 96% | 1.94 | -0.08 | 1.52 x 95% | 1.45 | -0.08 |
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RHP at home | Jeremy Hellickson WSN | 339 | 1.99 x 93% | 1.86 | -0.14 | 1.53 x 94% | 1.44 | -0.10 |
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LHP on road | Robbie Erlin SDP | 267 | 1.92 x 91% | 1.75 | -0.17 | 1.48 x 93% | 1.37 | -0.11 |
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RHP on road | Jorge Lopez KCR | 85 | 2.14 x 82% | 1.76 | -0.38 | 1.63 x 83% | 1.35 | -0.28 |
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RHP on road | Gerrit Cole HOU | 605 | 2.05 x 78% | 1.60 | -0.44 | 1.55 x 78% | 1.21 | -0.34 |
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LHP on road | Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD | 115 | 1.80 x 71% | 1.28 | -0.52 | 1.40 x 72% | 1.00 | -0.40 |
Early Games
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced | |
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP at home | Chris Archer PIT | 460 | 2.32 x 106% | 2.46 | +0.13 | 1.76 x 106% | 1.86 | +0.10 |
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LHP on road | Brett Anderson OAK | 203 | 2.09 x 113% | 2.37 | +0.28 | 1.62 x 115% | 1.85 | +0.24 |
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RHP on road | Jordan Zimmermann DET | 352 | 2.02 x 107% | 2.16 | +0.14 | 1.54 x 109% | 1.68 | +0.13 |
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RHP at home | Mike Leake SEA | 615 | 1.99 x 103% | 2.06 | +0.07 | 1.52 x 105% | 1.60 | +0.08 |
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RHP at home | Junior Guerra MIL | 514 | 2.18 x 95% | 2.07 | -0.11 | 1.65 x 95% | 1.57 | -0.08 |
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RHP on road | Kyle Hendricks CHC | 576 | 2.03 x 98% | 2.00 | -0.03 | 1.57 x 100% | 1.57 | +0.00 |
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RHP on road | Jose Berrios MIN | 614 | 2.19 x 89% | 1.94 | -0.25 | 1.67 x 89% | 1.49 | -0.19 |
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LHP at home | Carlos Rodon CHW | 292 | 2.19 x 79% | 1.73 | -0.46 | 1.68 x 78% | 1.32 | -0.36 |