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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Wednesday August 15

August 15, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Jake Faria TBR who has faced 233 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Jake Faria is currently allowing 106% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.70 (2.55 x 106%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees RHP at home Jake Faria TBR 233 2.55 x 106% 2.70 +0.15 1.91 x 103% 1.98 +0.06
Mets RHP on road Dylan Bundy BAL 540 2.25 x 118% 2.65 +0.40 1.70 x 117% 1.99 +0.29
Indians RHP on road Robert Stephenson CIN 20 2.13 x 118% 2.52 +0.39 1.62 x 108% 1.76 +0.14
Red Sox RHP on road Vince Velasquez PHI 491 2.41 x 98% 2.35 -0.06 1.82 x 96% 1.76 -0.06
Braves RHP at home Jose Urena MIA 541 2.22 x 102% 2.28 +0.05 1.68 x 102% 1.72 +0.04
Reds RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 272 2.10 x 103% 2.17 +0.07 1.60 x 106% 1.69 +0.09
Phillies RHP at home Nathan Eovaldi BOS 294 2.22 x 98% 2.17 -0.05 1.67 x 99% 1.65 -0.02
Royals RHP at home Marco Estrada TOR 444 1.84 x 115% 2.11 +0.27 1.42 x 114% 1.62 +0.19
Astros LHP at home Tyler Anderson COL 562 2.10 x 100% 2.11 +0.00 1.61 x 100% 1.60 +0.00
Dodgers LHP at home Derek Holland SFG 525 1.98 x 102% 2.03 +0.04 1.51 x 102% 1.53 +0.02
Marlins RHP on road Kevin Gausman ATL 587 1.89 x 104% 1.98 +0.08 1.46 x 106% 1.56 +0.09
Padres RHP at home Felix Pena LAA 192 1.86 x 107% 1.99 +0.13 1.43 x 106% 1.52 +0.09
Rays RHP on road Luis Cessa NYY 100 1.96 x 100% 1.97 +0.01 1.51 x 100% 1.51 +0.00
Orioles RHP at home Zack Wheeler NYM 559 2.22 x 88% 1.95 -0.27 1.69 x 88% 1.49 -0.20
Nationals LHP on road Austin Gomber STL 133 2.02 x 96% 1.94 -0.08 1.52 x 95% 1.45 -0.08
Cardinals RHP at home Jeremy Hellickson WSN 339 1.99 x 93% 1.86 -0.14 1.53 x 94% 1.44 -0.10
Angels LHP on road Robbie Erlin SDP 267 1.92 x 91% 1.75 -0.17 1.48 x 93% 1.37 -0.11
Blue Jays RHP on road Jorge Lopez KCR 85 2.14 x 82% 1.76 -0.38 1.63 x 83% 1.35 -0.28
Rockies RHP on road Gerrit Cole HOU 605 2.05 x 78% 1.60 -0.44 1.55 x 78% 1.21 -0.34
Giants LHP on road Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 115 1.80 x 71% 1.28 -0.52 1.40 x 72% 1.00 -0.40

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Twins RHP at home Chris Archer PIT 460 2.32 x 106% 2.46 +0.13 1.76 x 106% 1.86 +0.10
Mariners LHP on road Brett Anderson OAK 203 2.09 x 113% 2.37 +0.28 1.62 x 115% 1.85 +0.24
White Sox RHP on road Jordan Zimmermann DET 352 2.02 x 107% 2.16 +0.14 1.54 x 109% 1.68 +0.13
Athletics RHP at home Mike Leake SEA 615 1.99 x 103% 2.06 +0.07 1.52 x 105% 1.60 +0.08
Cubs RHP at home Junior Guerra MIL 514 2.18 x 95% 2.07 -0.11 1.65 x 95% 1.57 -0.08
Brewers RHP on road Kyle Hendricks CHC 576 2.03 x 98% 2.00 -0.03 1.57 x 100% 1.57 +0.00
Pirates RHP on road Jose Berrios MIN 614 2.19 x 89% 1.94 -0.25 1.67 x 89% 1.49 -0.19
Tigers LHP at home Carlos Rodon CHW 292 2.19 x 79% 1.73 -0.46 1.68 x 78% 1.32 -0.36

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

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