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Cleveland Browns Team Report

July 6, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

The Cleveland Browns ran the ball well as a team last year, but which player to bet on for fantasy is a tough call. Isaiah Crowell (upper-left) is the current front-runner, while rookie Duke Johnson (upper-right) is a better pass catcher, while Terrance West (bottom) logged the most carries last season.

The Cleveland Browns ran the ball well as a team last year, but which player to bet on for fantasy is a tough call. Isaiah Crowell (upper-left) is the current front-runner, while rookie Duke Johnson (upper-right) is a better pass catcher, while Terrance West (bottom) logged the most carries last season.

QB Josh McCown

Despite turning the ball over 18 times in 11 starts last season for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Browns committed to McCown as their starting quarterback, signing him to a three-year, $14-million contract that contained $6.3-million in guarantees. This despite the fact they selected Johnny Manziel in the 1st round of last year’s NFL Draft. At 35 years of age and a career backup, McCown takes over an offense that struggled mightily throwing the ball in 2014, but showed some potential rushing. Josh Gordon will miss all of 2015 due to a suspension and tight end Jordan Cameron signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason, leaving McCown’s main receiving options as fellow newcomers Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Robert Housler, plus returning veteran Andrew Hawkins. The Browns will compete for worst passing game in the NFL this season.

QB Johnny Manziel

Having flamed out spectacularly as a rookie in 2014, Manziel entered a rehab facility in the offseason in order to straighten out his personal life and hopefully his professional life as well. After struggling in the preseason, Manziel was relegated to a backup role behind Brian Boyer before starting a couple of late season games which basically proved the Browns were correct in keeping him nailed to the bench. While Manziel’s efforts to fix the issues that ail him should be commended, the expectation is that he will enter 2015 behind Josh McCown, although it would certainly rate as a shock if the Browns don’t give him a couple of starts at some point. Either way, the truth is that Manziel lacks the weapons necessary to make him a viable fantasy option. He is only roster worthy in dynasty formats, and he has done nothing at this point to prove that he has a bright future in the league.

RB Isaiah Crowell

Undrafted coming out of college due to off the field concerns, Crowell emerged as the Browns leading rusher during the second half of his rookie season, carrying the ball 148 times for 607 yards and eight touchdowns. While that was a reasonably impressive feat, the truth is that Crowell lacks upside as a rusher and is limited in the passing game due to his poor route running and lack of ability in pass protection. Lacking speed, Crowell relies on his size and is a punishing runner who has proven to be a solid short yardage runner. However, he has little ability to make tacklers miss and will enter training camp in a dogfight with fellow second year player Terrance West and rookie Duke Johnson for playing time. Given the sorry state of the Browns offense, Crowell rates as a low end RB3 provided he opens the season as the team’s starting running back.

RB Duke Johnson

Although the Browns seem to have found a pair of solid rookie running backs last season in Isaiah Crowell and Terrence West, they went to the well again at the position in this year’s draft, drafting Miami-Florida product Duke Johnson in the 3rd round. Johnson has some serious agility skills, but in Cleveland he will likely operate as a change of pace, receiving back behind Crowell and West in an offense that will struggle to move the ball. At 5’9” and 206 pounds, Johnson doesn’t possess feature back size and Browns coaches have indicated they envision him in a Giovani Bernard type role, which clearly limits his upside. However, both Crowell and West struggled with their consistency as rookies so there is a chance that Johnson emerges from the pack to earn 12-15 touches per game. The odds of that are low so we consider Johnson little more than a late round flyer in redraft formats and a mid-tier prospect in dynasty formats.

RB Terrance West

Taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, West entered the season in a backup role to Ben Tate, took over as the team’s starter when Tate was released and finished the season splitting time with Isaiah Crowell. The 5’9”, 225 pound Towson State product was a bell cow type runner in college but his lack of consistency and refusal to simply take the yards that were there landed him in the doghouse at times as a rookie as his workload fluctuated widely from week to week. He will fight with Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson for touches this season and rates as the least intriguing option out of the trio of young running backs. Crowell is clearly a 1st and 2nd down downhill runner who looks to punish opposing defenders. Johnson possesses potentially game breaking abilities in the passing game and is an elusive when rushing the ball. The truth is that West is likely the team’s second best option behind Crowell in terms of rushing the ball and second best receiving option out of the backfield behind Johnson. However, he does possess some talent and given Crowell’s off the field issues, West holds some appeal in dynasty formats. In redraft formats, monitor West in the preseason to determine if he is worthy of a late round flyer.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Cut loose by the Kansas City Chiefs after stringing together three consecutive seasons where his production didn’t match his salary cap hit, Bowe was signed by the Browns in the offseason and joins a wide receiver depth chart that rates amongst the worst in the league. In Cleveland, Bowe will battle with the likes of Brian Hartline, Andrew Hawkins and Rob Housler for targets. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it is fair to ask whether, at 30 years of age (31 in September), Bowe has enough left in the tank to take advantage of the opportunity. Not helping matters is the Browns quarterback situation. Bowe failed to catch a single touchdown last year and has just 13 touchdowns in the last four seasons. While he has a decent change to emerge as a WR3 in PPR formats given his expected volume of targets, Bowe rates as a WR4-5 in standard scoring formats.

WR Brian Hartline

After posting back to back 1,000 yards seasons with the Dolphins in 2012 and 2013, Hartline crash landed last season, catching just 39 of his 63 targets for 474 yards and a pair of touchdowns as Miami made rookie Jarvis Landry a bigger part of their offense. Cut loose by the Dolphins, Hartline landed in Cleveland where he will enter training camp listed as a starter opposite Dwayne Bowe. At first glance, that sounds promising. However, we expect Hartline’s role and production with the Browns to mimic his 2014 season in Miami. Bowe figures to lead the team in targets with slot receiver Andrew Hawkins following close behind and tight end Rob Housler likely soaking up another 60-80 looks in the passing game. Hartline should only be rostered in the deepest leagues and even then we give him only a lukewarm endorsement.

WR Andrew Hawkins

In his first season in Cleveland, Hawkins emerged as Cleveland’s most productive receiver, posting career highs in receptions with 63 and yards with 824 while scoring two touchdowns. Unfortunately, it took him 112 targets to muster that production meaning his completion to target ratio was unimpressive for a slot receiver. With the Browns once again featuring one of the league’s least impressive depth charts at wide receiver, Hawkins should be line for plenty of targets once again in 2015. The issue is whether he will produce enough to have fantasy value. Last season is a pretty clear indictment of his fantasy prospects. Given his lack of touchdowns production, we rate Hawkins as nothing more than a late round flyer in standard scoring formats and a somewhat more intriguing option in PPR formats.

WR Vince Mayle

While several teams in the league were stocking their wide receiver depth charts based on the abundance of receiving talent found in the last two rookie drafts, the Browns waited until the 4th round of this year’s draft to select Vince Mayle. In Mayle, the Browns gain a possession receiver who lacks the deep speed to threaten defenses and that limits his upside. That being said, only declining veterans Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline stand in Mayle’s way of earning a spot in the starting lineup, given that Andrew Hawkins and Taylor Gabriel lack the size to be consistent weapons on the outside. Mayle rates as a low end dynasty prospect and waiver wire material in redraft formats.

WR Travis Benjamin

A 2012 4th round pick, Benjamin finally showed some playmaking ability in 2014, posting a career year with 37 receptions for 629 yards and a touchdown. While the average yards per reception of 17.0 was impressive, his inability to post more than one touchdown was noteworthy as was his less than impressive completion to target rate of 50.7%. It is his lack of efficiency as a diminutive player best used out of the slot that figures to relegate him to a minor role going forward. In truth, Benjamin benefited from circumstance in 2014 as injuries and suspensions ravaged the Browns receivers. We expect Benjamin to enter the season ranked 4th on the depth chart and of little value to fantasy owners.

WR Josh Gordon

Out for the year, folks. Worth a stash in dynasty leagues although there is little evidence to support the narrative that Gordon is getting his life back on track.

TE Robert Housler

After four non-descript seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, Housler joins the Browns in 2015 where he has essentially been handed the starting position at tight end left open when Jordan Cameron signed with Miami in the offseason. Let’s consider that somewhat odd given that he caught nine of 17 targets for 129 yards in his final season in Arizona although it is also fair to note that he was miscast in Bruce Arians’ offense which doesn’t feature the tight end position. In Cleveland, Housler will compete for targets with the likes of Dwayne Bowe, Brian Hartline and Andrew Hawkins which gives him a chance for decent production in 2015. However, the quarterback situation and Housler’s inability to produce on a consistent basis four years into his career render him little more than a TE2, although his opportunity does make him a little more intriguing than some of the other options available at that point in fantasy drafts.

Also see: Cleveland Browns IDP Team Report | Baltimore Ravens Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

  • “Quarterback Whisperer” Marc Trestman is the Ravens new OC, which one would assume means an uptick for QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett in the passing game. The problem with boosting Flacco is he’s already thrown pass attempts in excess of former Trestman protégé Jay Cutler in recent years, and his supporting cast consists of two rookies and a very late bloomer or journeyman RB amongst his top four pass catchers. You can be bullish about Flacco, but he’s still considered just a fringe starter or reliable backup.
  • We’ve currently got Forsett in line with his catches last season, which should arguably go up. Matt Forte caught 74 and 102 receptions in his two seasons under Trestman. However, Forsett is not Forte. Forsett bounced around playing for four different teams through six seasons before finally breaking out last year. That’s a red flag, or at least a caution. Lorenzo Taliaferro wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie, so the team added Javorius Allen via the NFL Draft. How effective these guys are is the main threat to Forsett’s workload.
  • Steve Smith started off hot last season with four touchdowns, four 100-yard games in the first six weeks. Then there was a noticeable fade. Does he have another 1,000-yard season in him? Possible given the opportunity, but not great odds.
  • The Ravens need at least one of rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams (preferably both) to make an immediate impact. The team is optimistic Dennis Pitta will play this season but it looks 50-50 at best right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Fantasy players don’t like Andy Dalton. He failed to crack 3,400 yards or 20 TD passing last season, but I still had to double check why (at the time) his 12-team ADP was n/a on our initial online cheatsheets. It’s a running team. The Bengals would be quite content to keep him under 500 pass attempts.
  • Giovani Bernard looked like he might be the next Jamaal Charles-esque all-purpose back after his rookie season in 2013. Then Jeremy Hill came to town and all bets are off. Hill overtook Bernard producing over 1,300 yards on 222 carries and 27 receptions. Bernard missed a few games, still chipped in over 1,000 yards on over 200 touches, but the coaching staff showed a lot more confidence in Hill. Hills’ yards-per-carry is half a yard better. He’s the guy to own. Bernard only if he drops too far to present good value.
  • One of the best receivers in the game is A.J. Green, but the run heavy philosophy begets a slight downgrade from Green’s 3-year weighted average. Mohamed Sanu filled in pretty well when Green was out and Marvin Jones was lost for the season. Now Sanu and Jones will challenge each other for snaps. Jones wins, if healthy.
  • Veteran Jermaine Gresham is a free agent still on the market, leaving Tyler Eifert who has done little in his NFL career, and rookie Tyler Kroft. Eifert is an end-game flier if you need a second TE, but more than likely this position on the Bengals is a fantasy wasteland. Surprising, since the knock on Dalton is his deep ball.

Cleveland Browns

  • Our projections need some adjustment here. Since initially prepping these, media reports Josh McCown is the clear cut starter and Johnny Manziel is not really in the discussion. Makes sense. Neither are worth drafting.
  • The running back position was tough to figure out last season. It isn’t any clearer this season, and potentially worse, since last year we could write-off Ben Tate pretty early on. This year, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are all in the picture for carries. We’ve got it Crow-West-Johnson, but none with enough carries to get to 1,000 yards. Losing OC Kyle Shanahan does not help matters.
  • Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline arrive to take over the top two receiver spots. Bowe’s 1,000 yard seasons are a distant memory. Can you believe he caught 15 TD in 2010? This is a dismal depth chart. Robert Housler is interesting to the extent if he does perform for fantasy, we get to see how many pundits put their hand up and say, “see, called it” [three years ago].

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in scoring, within 10 points of 3rd. No significant losses and his receivers are more than likely better. Note he’s getting drafted 8th to 9th QB off the board.
  • Le’Veon Bell is currently suspended the first three games of the season, and that is a bummer. He blew past 350 touches last season. The forced time off scales him back to around 300. Discount accordingly but not too much because it is his points-per-game that matter. Hopefully rust is short lived once he’s back in late September. DeAngelo Williams backs up Bell and has some value knowing he will start three games.
  • Big Ben and Antonio Brown are in a zone. I’ve seen Brown go first WR off the board in some early drafts, and I can’t knock it. Best bet to top 100 receptions this season. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are a young, exciting pair, particularly Bryant, but not ready to cut into Brown’s production. Bryant might be a tough decision to start each week on your fantasy team, but he didn’t play the first six weeks last season and then proceeded to score in 7 of 11 games played. Impressive.
  • Some pegged the Steelers to draft a TE replacement for Heath Miller. Not yet. A blah pick but provides an acceptable return if you are last to draft the position.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

July 24, 2014 By Dave 3 Comments

WR Larry Fitzgerald (11) and Michael Floyd (15) during during the Arizona Cardinals Training Camp at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. August 3, 2013; Photographer: Bruce Yeung/Icon Sportswire

Changing of the guard in the desert? With Larry Fitzgerald (11) turning 31 by opening day, there is a solid chance that Michael Floyd (15) will take over as the team’s leading threat at wide receiver during the 2014 season. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB C. Palmer
4 · 16th
355-575-4,300 25 TD 18 INT
31-35 0 TD
–
318.5
QB D. Stanton
NR – – –
0.0
RB A. Ellington
4 · 21st –
175-850 7 TD
40-425 1 TD
175.5
RB S. Taylor
7 · 49th –
120-400 2 TD
0-00 0 TD
52.0
RB J. Dwyer
NR –
60-180 1 TD
0-00 0 TD
24.0
WR M. Floyd
2 · 11th – –
85-1,150 8 TD
163.0
WR L. Fitzgerald
4 · 18th – –
90-1,000 6 TD
136.0
WR Ja. Brown
NR – –
10-110 1 TD
17.0
WR Jo. Brown
NR – –
20-280 2 TD
40.0
WR T. Ginn Jr.
NR – –
35-500 3 TD
79.0
TE R. Housler
NR – – –
0.0
TE J. Ballard
NR – –
10-130 1 TD
19.0
TE J. Carlson
NR – –
25-220 2 TD
34.0
TE T. Niklas
NR – –
10-90 0 TD
9.0

Data as of July 21 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Carson Palmer

It would be fair to say that Palmer enjoyed an up and down first year in the desert. While he passed for a career-high 4,274 yards and 24 touchdowns, that was largely offset by his propensity for throwing interceptions as he also reached a career high with 22 in nearly leading the Cardinals to a playoff berth with a solid 10-6 record. At 34 years of age, Palmer’s best days are clearly in the rearview mirror and his arm strength is beginning to wane. However, he still has some value as a fantasy backup, particularly if the matchup is right, given his solid group of receivers in Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald and Ted Ginn Jr. as well as running back Andre Ellington, who caught a healthy 39 balls as a rookie. With an improved offensive line, Palmer should be able to stay upright for all 16 games once again this season and that fact should give you some comfort in grabbing him as a mid-tier QB2.

RB Andre Ellington

The Cardinals grabbed the 5’9” and 199 pound Ellington with a 6th round pick in last year’s NFL Draft and he promptly proved that was an absolute bargain, gaining 652 rushing yards and three touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry and adding another 371 yards and a score on 39 receptions. And that was despite the fact that head coach Bruce Arians stubbornly clung to the notion that Ellington should remain a part-time player behind the struggling Rashard Mendenhall. With Mendenhall out of the picture, Ellington is the starter but his fantasy value will hinge on how many touches Arians is willing to give him. There are conflicting reports on this but we are sold on the notion that Arians will limit him to 12-15 touches per game and hand over the short yardage role to Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer. While that limits Ellington’s upside, he still rates as a mid-tier RB2 with major upside given his big play ability and the fact that Taylor and Dwyer could easily bust as his backup.

RB Stepfan Taylor

Taken in the 5th round of the 2013 draft, Taylor failed to carve out a significant role as a rookie despite Rashard Mendenhall’s struggles and the team’s refusal to hand fellow rookie Andre Ellington a large role in the team’s offense. With Mendenhall deciding to retire and Ellington slated to take over in the starting line up, the 5’9”, 214 pound Taylor will battle former Steeler Jonathan Dwyer for the top backup spot on the depth chart in a role that will almost certainly include substantial short yardage work. While we like his chances of earning that role, there isn’t yet any evidence to suggest that he would be productive if given significant playing time and that renders him little more than a handcuff at best in 2014.

RB Jonathan Dwyer

After four lackluster years in Pittsburgh, Dwyer will join his former offensive coordinator Bruce Arians in Arizona in 2014. While the 5’11”, 229 pound Dwyer has a reputation as a power back, he never really took to the role as a short yardage back during his stay in Pittsburgh, finding the end zone just twice. This season he will battle with Stepfan Taylor for the right to back up Andre Ellington and earn a role as a short yardage back since Ellington is ill-suited for that role. While it would seem that Taylor, the team’s 2013 5th round pick, should have the upper hand in that battle, he managed just 36 carries as a rookie, averaging just 3.2 yards a carry and failed to find the end zone. If Dwyer somehow manages to usurp Taylor, he would rate as a low end handcuff at best.

WR Michael Floyd

After struggling for much of his rookie season, Michael Floyd emerged as a solid, if not consistent weapon for the Cardinals in 2013. The 2012 1st round pick led the team with 1,041 receiving yards on his 65 receptions, finding the end zone six times while averaging a healthy 16.0 yards per catch. He also saved his best performances for the end of the season, gaining 577 yards and three touchdowns over the Cardinals final seven games. With Larry Fitzgerald turning 31 by opening day, there is a solid chance that Floyd will take over as the team’s leading threat at wide receiver at some point during the 2014 season. We’re banking on that happening. While the rest of the fantasy world grabs Fitzgerald too early based on his stellar production during a 10-year career, you can probably safely wait and grab Floyd as a high end WR2 with upside at a cheaper cost. Dynasty leaguers should grab Floyd before the secret is really out.

WR Larry Fitzgerald

There is a point in a man’s life where he realizes that he can do what he has always wanted and finally overpower his father and that is always a kind of sad day. And that is the feeling you get with Larry Fitzgerald in 2014 as his sidekick Michael Floyd seems poised to take over as the Cardinals leading wide receiver. As classy as Fitzgerald has been throughout a career that will surely result in his inclusion in the Hall of Fame, you can be sure that he is ready to handle that situation if it transpires this season. He will turn 31 prior to opening day and is coming off a pair of sub-1,000 receiving yard seasons for the first time in his 10-year career. While some of that can be attributable to spotty quarterback play, it is also worth noting that despite his solid size and massive wingspan Fitzgerald has caught just 52.1% of his targets over the past four seasons. His 10 touchdowns last season helped propel him to a respectable 16th ranking at wide receiver but it’s foolhardy to project double digit touchdowns for him at this stage of his career. While we aren’t about to predict a swift, steep decline for Fitzgerald in 2014, we can safely conclude that his days as a WR1 are behind him. Keeping in mind that 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns gets you low end WR2 status, that is where we place him for this coming season.

WR Ted Ginn Jr.

After generating some buzz in the Panthers training camp last season, Ginn did the unthinkable. He actually put together a solid season, catching 36 passes for 556 yards and five touchdowns, a career-high. That marked his finest season since 2008 and he parlayed that into a modest free agent deal with the Cardinals. In Arizona, Ginn replaces Andre Roberts and will backup Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd at wide receiver and contribute in the return game. Since Roberts amassed nearly 500 receiving yards last season, which wasn’t too far off Ginn’s production in Carolina, we expect him to produce another solid season for a backup wide receiver. Unfortunately, barring injury to Fitzgerald or Floyd, that won’t be enough to make Ginn fantasy relevant in 2014.

TE Robert Housler, TE Jake Ballard, TE John Carlson, TE Troy Niklas

Although Housler is coming off a career year during which he amassed a career-high 454 receiving yards, reports out of Arizona indicate that he may have fallen to 4th on the depth chart at tight end. The team re-signed Jake Ballard in the offseason as well as adding John Carlson in free agency and using a 2nd round pick on Troy Niklas. With Ballard and Carlson having proven to be injury prone options and the coaching staff apparently down on Housler, there is a chance that the rookie Niklas could emerge with the starting job at some point during the season. However this situation shakes out, it’s safe to conclude that you don’t want to have any part of it for fantasy purposes.

Also see: San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks | St. Louis Rams
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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