The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI Part 2

March 11, 2019 By Chris Spencer 1 Comment

Chris is excited about his team in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, or TGFBI for short. Maybe even as excited as Atlanta Braves’ Freddie Freeman, Chris’ 2nd round pick. Here is part two of his draft recap.

Last week I wrote about the first 10 picks of my draft in League 21 of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI). In this piece I’m going to take you all the way through pick 30.

Quick reminder that I’m picking from the 10th slot in the draft, and using the ATC projections in my Draft Buddy setup. I’m also showing you, the reader, how I use my Target Percentages philosophy/method during a fantasy baseball draft.

When last we spoke my Target Percentages through 10 rounds were as follows:

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Through Round 10	57%	56%	57%	73%	4.50

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Through Round 10	32%	48%	35%	3.75	4.75

With half of my starting hitters drafted I’m over 50% in all counting stats and in the positive with batting average. All good. The down side is that I’ll be drafting hitters with less than desirable profiles, as well as not one, but two starting catchers which should be filed somewhere under cruel and unusual punishment.

As for pitching, I clearly have some work to do. I only have two starters (Chris Sale & Charlie Morton) to go with one closer (Kenley Jansen). I’ll be looking to bolster my staff sooner rather than later in this draft. Which leads me to…

Pick 11.10, 160^th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Heaney, Jose Quintana or Rick Porcello. The hit to ratios is too much with Quintana or Porcello. I can make the difference in wins with RPs.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Quintana	13%	0%	12%	-1.25	-2.00
Heaney	11%	0%	12%	-1.00	-0.50
Porcello	15%	0%	12%	-2.50	-1.00

Heaney bounced back nicely from Tommy John surgery in 2018 with 180 strikeouts, a 4.15 ERA, 3.68 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP in 180 innings. A sub-4.00 ERA appears to be achievable in 2019.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total	32%	48%	35%	3.75	4.75
Heaney	11%	0%	12%	-1.00	-0.50
New Pitching Total	43%	48%	47%	2.75	4.25

Pick 12.06, 171^st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

David Robertson went at 12.03 to Kenny Butrym. He was someone I was hoping to get here. Closer is a delicate position most years, and 2019 is no exception. There are a handful of “named” closers and they go quickly. On my board I have 3 left in this tier: Will Smith, Jose Alvarado and Cody Allen (ADP 11.11). I could possibly get Smith later (ADP 14.06).

Alvarado posted an elite 30.4% strikeout rate last season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite closer is playing for the Tampa Bay Rays and their blatant disregard for running a conventional bullpen.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total	43%	48%	47%	2.75	4.25
Alvarado	3%	29%	5%	0.50	-0.25
New Pitching Total	46%	77%	52%	3.25	4.00

Pick 13.10, 190^th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

I know, everyone hates Hosmer. But, he is the highest rated player left on my board by a decent amount. I didn’t expect to draft my UT player this early, but I can’t pass up the value.

Hosmer’s batting average since 2011:

Even years 0.232, 0.270, 0.266 and 0.253
Odd years: 0.293, 0.302, 0.297 and 0.318 – Psst! 2019 is an odd year!

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Prev. Batting Total	57%	56%	57%	73%	4.50
Hosmer	7%	8%	8%	4%	0.50
New Batting Total	64%	64%	65%	77%	5.00

If you’ve been paying attention, you may have realized that I don’t have a 3B yet. By my count, the top 23 have been taken off the board and I don’t have one of them. In my opinion, third base goes 33 deep and the difference between #33 and #15 is about $5.

With 6 bats left for my starting lineup, I feel I am in great shape. I will definitely be making withdrawals from that +5.00 batting average to get to 100% in the counting stats.

Pick 14.06, 201^st overall – SP Ross Stripling

This pick was made in the middle of the “Kershaw is dead” hysteria last week. I had my eye on Stripling even before Nick Pollack of PitcherList said he was grabbing up all shares of Stripling on the Benched with Bubba podcast. He’s one of the few starters still on the board that doesn’t hurt your ratios in some way. This was probably a reach but I feel comfortable with the decision (even if it looks like Kershaw apparently didn’t die).

Special thanks to Nick Pollack aka @PitcherList for joining me on Benched with Bubba EP 149 to talk a ton of #FantasyBaseball Starting Pitchers outside the Top 25 & much morehttps://t.co/RpF7MQX3Pg

— KC Bubba (@bdentrek) March 1, 2019

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total	46%	77%	52%	3.25	4.00
Stripling	8%	0%	8%	0.25	0.00
New Pitching Total	54%	77%	60%	3.50	4.00

Stripling brings me to 4 SP and 2 RP. I’ll be drafting a few sub-optimal starters to get me to 100% in wins and strikeouts. The cost will be those ratios.

Pick 15.10, 220^th overall – OF Max Kepler

Kyle Seager just sent me his resumé for my open 3B position. He’s at the top of my list but I have another candidate in my mind. Someone even cheaper than Seager. With that, I shift focus to the outfield. The top two on my board are Odubel Herrera and Kepler. I decide to go with Kepler for the HR.

He lowered his K% and raised his BB% last season and was rewarded with… a .224 batting average? Ugh, a .236 BABIP will do that. Crossing my fingers for a little regression. Regardless, he appears to be on track for 20+ homeruns, 70+ runs, 70+ RBI and a handful of stolen bases.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Prev. Batting Total	64%	64%	65%	77%	5.00
Kepler	8%	7%	7%	4%	-1.00
New Batting Total	72%	71%	72%	81%	4.00

Pick 16.06, 231^st overall – RP Andrew Miller

I think Miller has a solid chance at getting the closer gig for the Cardinals. Even if he doesn’t, his numbers will surely help you over the course of the season. He’s a bit of a health risk and he’s coming off a down season where he posted a 4.24 ERA; his worst since becoming a full-time reliever in 2012.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total	54%	77%	60%	3.50	4.00
Miller	4%	13%	6%	0.75	0.50
New Pitching Total	58%	90%	66%	4.25	4.50

Pick 17.10, 250^th overall – C Welington Castillo

It says in the rules that I have to start a catcher. Well, actually two catchers. I chose Castillo mostly because he seems to have a lock on being the primary catcher for the Chicago White Sox and he’s got some pop without killing your average.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Prev. Batting Total	72%	71%	72%	81%	4.00
Castillo	5%	4%	5%	1%	-0.25
New Batting Total	77%	75%	77%	82%	3.75

Pick 18.06, 261^st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Remember back when I said I had another candidate in mind for third base? Got’em. Two rounds later I get basically the same player with slightly fewer runs and RBI but with a much better batting average.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Seager (drafted 16.05)	8%	7%	8%	1%	-1.50
Franco	8%	6%	7%	1%	-0.25

Franco has lowered his K% over the last three years while increasing his ISO. No one is talking about him this season, but he seems like a lock for 20+ homeruns, 60+ runs and 70+ RBI while batting somewhere between .250 to .270. I’ll take that at this point in the draft.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Prev. Batting Total	77%	75%	77%	82%	3.75
Franco	8%	6%	7%	1%	-0.25
New Batting Total	85%	81%	84%	83%	3.50

Pick 19.10, 280^th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

I almost took Herrera back in the 15^th when I took Kepler. He is still there staring me down.

Many are scared off by his recent hamstring injury. Not me. While he hit a career best 22 bombs in 2018 it came at the expense of his batting average (career low .255) and stolen bases (career low 5). I’m gambling that 2018 was the exception and he gets back on track.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Prev. Batting Total	85%	81%	84%	83%	3.50
Herrera	6%	6%	7%	6%	0.00
New Batting Total	91%	87%	91%	89%	3.50

Pick 20.06, 291^st overall – SP Jake Junis

Well, we all knew this time would come. I’ve been banking up those ratios for this moment. He’s the highest ranked remaining starter on my list. That’s about all I can say about him. He will not be the last starter I draft. I’m hoping to get a few more and stream them in and out of my starting lineup in hopes of minimizing the damage they do to my ratios.

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Prev. Pitching Total	58%	90%	66%	4.25	4.50
Junis	11%	0%	11%	-2.00	-1.00
New Pitching Total	69%	90%	77%	2.25	3.50

Pick 21.10, 310^th overall – OF Kole Calhoun

My 5^th outfielder that should help me a little bit in steals. From 2013-2017 his BABIP was .303 which is right around league average. Last year it was .241, so I’m betting on things getting back to “normal” for him in 2019.

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Prev. Batting Total	91%	87%	91%	89%	3.50
Calhoun	6%	7%	7%	4%	-1.75
New Batting Total	97%	94%	98%	93%	1.75

Here are the rest of my picks:

Pick 22.06, 321^st overall – 3B Jeimer Candelario – Hoping the wrist injury is behind him (.225 ISO before; .148 after).
Pick 23.10, 340^th overall – SP Zack Eflin – Up and down 2018; hoping for a bounceback.
Pick 24.06, 351^st overall – RP Ryan Brasier – Decent chance to be the closer in Boston.
Pick 25.10, 370^th overall – 2B Starlin Castro – Why not? Projected for 14+ homeruns, 64+ RBI, 60+ runs with a .266+ average.
Pick 26.06, 381^st overall – C Tyler Flowers – Well, I have to start 2 catchers.
Pick 27.10, 400^th overall – SP Trevor Cahill – Great start in 2018 (3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 25 K% in first 13 games) before coming back down to Earth.
Pick 28.06, 411^st overall – RP Diego Castillo – Used by the Rays as an “opener” but has closer stuff (29.3 K%).
Pick 29.10, 430^th overall – 3B Zack Cozart – Drafted right before his injury news came out.
Pick 30.06, 441^st overall – SP Robbie Erlin – Last year had a 4.21 ERA but a 3.41 xFIP.

Closing Thoughts

Here are my starting bats:

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
C – Wellington Castillo	5%	4%	5%	1%	-0.25
C – Tyler Flowers	3%	4%	4%	0%	-0.50
1B – Freddie Freeman	9%	9%	10%	6%	3.50
2B – Brian Dozier	9%	8%	8%	9%	-1.50
3B – Maikel Franco	8%	6%	7%	1%	-0.25
SS – Xander Bogaerts	7%	8%	9%	8%	1.75
OF – Starling Marte	6%	8%	7%	24%	1.25
OF – Eddie Rosario	9%	8%	8%	7%	1.25
OF – Max Kepler	8%	7%	7%	4%	-1.00
OF – Odubel Herrera	6%	6%	7%	6%	0.00
OF – Kole Calhoun	6%	7%	7%	4%	-1.75
MI – Tim Anderson	6%	7%	6%	18%	-0.75
CI – Matt Olson	11%	8%	9%	1%	-1.00
UT – Eric Hosmer	7%	8%	8%	4%	0.50
Starters Total	100%	98%	102%	93%	1.25

I fell just a bit shy in runs and a good bit in steals of my 100% goal but I’m ahead in RBI and batting average. All in all, I’m in good shape. My bench hitters:

Name	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG
Jeimer Candelario	3B	6%	7%	6%	0.02
Starlin Castro	2B	5%	6%	6%	0.04
Zack Cozart	3B	5%	6%	5%	0.01

With his recent injury, Cozart will be the first to be dropped. Here is my core pitching staff as I see it today:

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Chris Sale	16%	0%	17%	3.00	4.00
Charlie Morton	13%	0%	12%	0.00	-0.50
Andrew Heaney	11%	0%	12%	-1.00	-0.50
Ross Stripling	8%	0%	8%	0.25	0.00
Kenley Jansen	3%	48%	6%	0.75	1.25
Jose Alvarado	3%	29%	5%	0.50	-0.25
Andrew Miller	4%	13%	6%	0.75	0.50
Core Pitching Total	58%	90%	66%	4.25	4.50

And here are the players I will rotate in and out weekly based on matchup, etc.:

Name	W	SV	K	ERA	WHIP
Jake Junis	11%	0%	11%	-2.00	-1.00
Zach Eflin	12%	0%	9%	-1.75	-1.00
Trevor Cahill	8%	0%	8%	-1.25	-2.00
Robbie Erlin	6%	0%	6%	-1.50	-0.75
Ryan Brasier	3%	18%	4%	0.00	0.00

If Brasier ends up getting the closing gig in Boston I will make him part of the core group. As for the starters listed here, I’d be shocked if any of them are still here when the season ends. I’ll be streaming starting pitchers throughout the season.

Well, I hope you got something out of this exercise. If I had to pin down the overall arching message of the two articles it is that the more you bank your ratios the more you have to withdraw from to get the counting stats. Wish me luck in the TGFBI!

Tiers of Starting Pitching – Don’t Drink the Water

March 11, 2011 By Bodhizefa 5 Comments

Tiers of SP: Elite, Superstars and Studs | Solid Gents and Upside Plays | The Rest, Sleepers and Asleep
Speculative Plays | Don’t Drink the Water

Don’t Drink the Water

Anthony Lerew, LHP, KC (Hideous ERA, Slightly less hideous FIP, You do the math)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Lerew represents just another example of Dayton Moore’s attempt to replicate the 2007 Atlanta Braves system. This is kind of like me getting nostalgic for my college years and trying to reassemble my awesome freshman year dorm hall. Seems like a good idea at first until we realize that Goldeneye 64 actually has a lot of issues these days. And the jerkface that chooses OddJob always ruins it for us. Always. Not only can I imagine Moore getting his hall back together, while refusing to see all the chinks in the game’s armor, but I also believe in my heart of hearts that Dayton Moore is an OddJob man. [Editor’s Note: Scott, found this for you.]

A.J. Burnett, RHP, NYY (5.26 ERA, 4.87 FIP, +0.39 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I kind of miss the old “Nuke” Burnett of days gone by. Burnett doesn’t have the heat on his fastball that he used to, and he’s finding the adjustment into middle aged pitching to be difficult without it. He’s also trending more and more toward neutral GB/FB results, which means additional opportunities to give up homeruns in what is already a very poor home park for pitchers. He’s shown flashes of good control in seasons past, but he’s never been able to carry it over to the next year. If he wants to improve on a pretty miserable 2010, he’s going to have to either find that control and keep it or unearth his strikeout ability from the (shallow) grave. I’m not terribly optimistic on him, but there’s at least a pretty good probability of improvement. Bank on a 4.30 ERA and a WHIP in the mid to high 1.30’s. He’ll have his uses in deeper leagues as the Yankees earn him Wins. And he’s still got some strikeout value, too, even without his lightning fastball of old.

Aaron Cook, RHP, COL (5.08 ERA, 4.53 FIP, +0.55 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I wouldn’t touch this guy with a ten-meter cattle prod.

Adam Wainwright, RHP, STL(2.42 ERA, 2.91 FIP, -0.49 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Tommy John surgery put an end to Wainwright’s season before it even started. It’s a huge loss for the Cardinals, but at least most fantasy owners found out about the injury before they drafted him. Here’s hoping he comes back soon.

Armando Galarraga, RHP, ARI (4.49 ERA, 5.14 FIP, -0.65 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Kevin Towers isn’t very smart. Don’t you make the same mistake.

Ben Sheets, RHP, FA (4.53 ERA, 4.74 FIP, -0.21 Differential)
So long, farewell, alveterzane, goodbye. Attrition envelops another arm into its very large mouth.

Brad Bergesen, RHP, BAL (4.98 ERA, 5.14 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
It’s interesting that out of all the supposed impact Baltimore pitching prospects in the last couple of years, a guy like Bergeson may end up being one of the most useful in real life. He has very little fantasy upside (if any), but he could not totally suck for the O’s (which is more than many of their other pitchers seem capable of handling).

Brian Bannister, RHP, FA (6.34 ERA, 5.54 FIP, +0.80 Differential)
Defense: N/A
Park Factor: N/A
Word is he’s retired. Long live the FanGraphs contingent following those hapless Royals.

Brian Duensing, LHP, MIN (2.62 ERA, 3.81 FIP, -1.19 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s a pretty mediocre pitcher, but I’m sure the Twins absolutely adore him because he throws a lot of strikes.

Bruce Chen, LHP, KC (4.17 ERA, 4.53 FIP, -0.36 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Kauffman Stadium holds the ball in the park a bit better than average, so a flyball pitcher like Chen can benefit a bit from that. But overall, he’s the same old boring and borderline useless pitcher he’s always been. Bid accordingly.

Carl Pavano, RHP, MIN (3.75 ERA, 4.06 FIP, -0.31 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
I don’t expect another ERA in the 3’s, and as his BABIP creeps up (in part due to the worsened defense the Twins will run out there this year), his WHIP will almost certainly be in the 1.30’s. And, oh yeah, he doesn’t strike anyone out. Let everyone else bid on the name and last year’s numbers. You should know better.

Carlos Silva, RHP, CHC (4.22 ERA, 3.77 FIP, +0.45 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Taking a play out of Carlos Zambrano‘s playbook, he began Spring Training by getting in a brawl with one of his teammates and by giving up more runs than my hands and feet have digits. I can’t wait to see what he has in store for us during the regular season! Want a real dissection? He seems a very likely candidate to regress, even if his improved change-up was real. With a middling defense and a crappy park to pitch in, I anticipate an ERA closer to 5.00 than 4.00.

Chris Volstad, RHP, FLA (4.58 ERA, 4.33 FIP, +0.25 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Volstad is unlikely to ever be much more than what he is now, and that’s a serviceable real life back-end starter who offers very little upside to his fantasy owners. You can expect a low-to-mid-4’s ERA with a WHIP nearing 1.40 and double-digit Wins. He’s about as exciting as mowing the lawn with a push-mower. Have fun with that.

Craig Stammen, RHP, WAS (5.13 ERA, 4.04 FIP, +1.09 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Stammen’s a pretty hittable pitcher. I wouldn’t count on him as anything other than fantasy filler in the deepest of NL leagues. If it comes down to Stammen or a solid middle reliever, I’m going with the MR pretty much every time.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP, BOS (4.69 ERA, 4.11 FIP, +0.58 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
With Steve Trachsel no longer in the big leagues, Matsuzaka has become the de facto human rain delay with his unbelievable painful pre-pitch routine. Talent-wise, he’s not a totally useless pitcher at this point, but his durability issues make projecting anything more than 150 innings difficult. And realistically, there are pitchers with more upside at this point than a guy who should post an ERA north of 4 with a WHIP in the mid-to-high 1.30’s.

David Bush, RHP, TEX (4.54 ERA, 5.10 FIP, -0.56 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Negative, Ghost Rider. The pattern is full.

Fausto Carmona, RHP, CLE (3.77 ERA, 4.18 FIP, -0.41 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
You want to bet that he outperforms his FIP again with another horrible defense behind him? Sell high, Mortimer! Sell high!

Freddy Garcia, RHP, NYY (4.64 ERA, 4.75 FIP, -0.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
The only benefit of moving from Chicago to New York is that his defense improves. But he’s still going to give up a bevy of longballs, and he doesn’t really have the stuff anymore to be an asset in much of anything. And no, I don’t think there’s any way a guy known for his affinity for the night life could possibly get himself into any trouble in New York. Nope, no way at all.

Hisanori Takahashi, LHP, LAA (3.54 ERA, 3.56 FIP, -0.02 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Takahashi will probably spend the season as a swing-man for Mike Scoscia and the Halos. I’m not terribly interested in him in that role.

Jamie Moyer, LHP, FA (4.84 ERA, 5.05 FIP, -0.21 Differential)
Defense: N/A
Park Factor: N/A
He could probably still get an ERA under 5.00 pitching 40mph fastballs and 20mph change-ups from a wheelchair with bi-focals slipping down his nose. I’ll miss Moyer.

Jeff Karstens, RHP, PIT (4.92 ERA, 4.77 FIP, +0.15 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Does Pittsburgh actually grow crappy pitchers on trees? Is there any way anyone can sneak me in to see this fabled forest? And do Pittsburgh fans dream of starting forest fires there or what?

Jeff Suppan, RHP, SF (5.06 ERA, 4.94 FIP, +0.12 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Suppan Suck Factor:
I love that Brian Sabean signed him. They were made for each other.

Jeremy Bonderman, RHP, FA (5.53 ERA, 4.96 FIP, +0.57 Differential)
Defense: N/A
Park Factor: N/A
Word on the street is that Bonderman has retired. Power hitters in the AL Central spent the day with their flags at half mast.

Joe Blanton, RHP, PHI (4.82 ERA, 4.31 FIP, +0.51 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
I wonder if Blanton is motivated more by having all those amazing pitchers around him on the Phillies’ pitching staff or by a cupcake. Inquiring minds want to know.

Joe Saunders, LHP, ARI (4.47 ERA, 4.64 FIP, -0.17 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Kevin Towers says Joe Saunders is “a winner”. Charlie Sheen says Charlie Sheen is a winner. By the transitive property, I’m assuming both Joe Saunders and Kevin Towers have Tiger Blood running in their veins.

John Lannan, LHP, WAS (4.65 ERA, 4.48 FIP, +0.17 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Lanna draws a complete blank in my mind as to what to write about him. I wonder if that’s how his teammates feel about him when he’s on the mound, too.

Jon Garland, RHP, LAD (3.47 ERA, 4.36 FIP, -0.89 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Garland goes from Petco to Dodger Stadium, which is a downgrade. He goes from excellent defense to merely average – another downgrade. He’s also Jon Garland. Own at your own risk. Yes, I know he’s not totally worthless. If a 4.40 ERA, 1.35+ WHIP, and 120 K float your boat in a deep league, take the plunge.

Kevin Correia, RHP, PIT (5.40 ERA, 4.67 FIP, +0.73 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Pittsburgh is paying him $3 million to suck. Yay America!

Kyle Davies, RHP, KC (5.34 ERA, 4.52 FIP, +0.82 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Sometimes I wonder if Dayton Moore brings on crappy players just so his prospects will look that much better when they ascend through the system to the big leagues. I also wonder if he’s playing Goldeneye right now. I think about him a lot, honestly.

Kyle Kendrick, RHP, PHI (4.73 ERA, 4.89 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s the sixth starter for the Phillies, but he’s probably the 8th or 10th in terms of overall ability. I’m as good a fan of a picturesque nuclear explosion mushroom cloud as the next guy, but I generally like looking at them from afar. Maybe you prefer to ride the boom in a refrigerator. That’s up to you.

Livan Hernandez, RHP, WAS (3.66 ERA, 3.95 FIP, -0.29 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Mike Fast over at Baseball Prospectus did some Pitch F/X research and found that Hernandez got the benefit of the doubt on more outside pitches than most anybody in baseball. Fast’s research is just another reason statistics are so much fun in the analysis of pitching – we’ve come so far and yet there’s so much further we can go. What’s the predictive value of a study like Fast’s? Well, my opinion of Hernandez went from “Gosh he sucks” to “Gosh he sucks, but now I have to worry about blind umpires making him look slightly less sucky!”

Luke Hochevar, RHP, KC (4.81 ERA, 3.98 FIP, +0.83 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I’ve been a pretty optimistic man on Hochevar for the past few years, and with good reason – his peripheral stats suggest a pitcher who could be a nice value pick once his regular stats catch up. But he’s proven time and again that he has no idea how to pitch when runners get on base (his strand rate is miserable year after year). Couple that with Kansas City’s negative defensive value, and it’s tough for me to recommend him this year. I still think there’s potential there if he can ever figure out an approach to pitching once he allows runners on base, but until that happens, he’s a pretty safe avoid in fantasy play.

Mark Prior, RHP, NYY (N/A: Dusty Baker’d)
Defense:
Park Factor:
My 2003 and 2004 fantasy teams salute you, Mr. Prior. Dusty Baker, you go to hell – you go to hell and you die!

Manny Parra, LHP, MIL (4.94 ERA, 4.51 FIP, +0.43 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Likelihood that I’d take him over my mother in a race to see who could throw three strikes the fastest: Zero.

Mike Leake, RHP, CIN (4.23 ERA, 4.71 FIP, -0.48 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
At this point, he may be on the outside looking in for a rotation spot. He’s got some potential in the future to be more than just back of the rotation fodder, so the Reds may be wise to let him see a bit of development on the farm as they allow a better pitcher (i.e. Travis Wood) a chance at the fifth starter job. Leake will be back, and he could be an asset in the future. Just don’t spend anything on him this season.

Mike Pelfrey, RHP, NYM (3.66 ERA, 3.83 FIP, -0.17 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Pelfrey’s about as much fun as going to get your oil changed. His park and possibly his defense should both be assets, so his ERA will be pretty solid despite a mediocre (or worse) WHIP and talent. Bid accordingly.

Mitch Talbot, RHP, TB (4.41 ERA, 4.52 FIP, -0.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Talbot isn’t very good. And I’m being nice here.

Nick Blackburn, RHP, MIN (5.42 ERA, 5.13 FIP, +0.29 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Great control. Horrible strikeout rates. Crappy overall fantasy package. Blackburn isn’t worth your time. Great gravity, do those Twins coaches and front office types love their strike-throwing no-strikeout pitchers, huh? So democratic they are – and annoying.

Paul Maholm, LHP, PIT (5.10 ERA, 4.22 FIP, +0.88 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Just another back-end starter for the Pirates. In other words, I’m sure he’ll get the Opening Day nod from them. Fantasy value? Stay away. Stay far away.

Rick Porcello, RHP, DET (4.92 ERA, 4.35 FIP, +0.57 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Like I said last year, he seems like Aaron Cook, only with an awful lot more press. I’m sticking to that until he shows he can strike out a Major League hitter.

Scott Feldman, RHP, TEX (5.48 ERA, 4.77 FIP, +0.71 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
No.

Rodrigo Lopez, RHP, ATL (5.00 ERA, 5.27 FIP, -0.27 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Hell no.

Ross Ohlendorf, RHP, PIT (4.07 ERA, 4.47 FIP, -0.40 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He successfully won his arbitration case. That doesn’t make him a guy I’d really want on my fantasy team, but I’d sure like him on my side if I run into legal troubles.

Ryan Rowland-Smith, LHP, HOU (6.75 ERA, 6.58 FIP, +0.17 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
He’s a fun guy, but he probably ends up as a lefty specialist sooner than later. Avoid.

Scott Kazmir, LHP, LAA (5.94 ERA, 5.86 FIP, +0.08 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
I bet his doctors look at his shoulder MRI results and get them confused with 70-year-olds. In other words, Kaz is toast. And not even good bread toast either

Tim Wakefield, RHP, BOS (5.34 ERA, 4.53 FIP, +0.81 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s an afterthought at this point in the twilight of his career. Let’s hope he spends his final days in uniform teaching others all the beautiful intricacies of the knuckler.

Tom Gorzelanny, LHP, CHC (4.09 ERA, 3.91 FIP, +0.18 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
Nope.

Tommy Hunter, RHP, TEX (3.73 ERA, 5.07 FIP, -1.34 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
A part of my soul dies each time a crappy pitcher beats his FIP by a country mile. Avoid.

Tony Pena, RHP, CHW (5.10 ERA, 4.53 FIP, +0.57 Differential)
Defen… Just don’t bother, okay?

Trevor Cahill, LHP, OAK (2.97 ERA, 4.25 FIP, -1.28 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
I’ve seen no evidence, either statistical or scouting-wise, to suggest that Cahill was anything other than tremendously lucky last season. He’s a guy with good groundball rates but without good control or strikeout stuff. The great defense and the good ballpark (especially for southpaws) are all that stands between Cahill and crappiness. I think he has a 4.00+ ERA with a WHIP in the 1.30’s, plus he’s a detriment to your strikeouts. Maybe there’s more skill there deep down where we haven’t seen it just yet, but as of right now, he’s a middling back-end pitcher with middling fantasy stuff as well.

Vin Mazzaro, RHP, KC (4.27 ERA, 5.21 FIP, -0.94 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
He’s not terribly good, and he plays for the Royals. That’s code for “I’m scared.”

Wade “Fringe” LeBlanc, LHP, SD (4.25 ERA, 4.77 FIP, -0.52 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
There’s a great TV show on these days called “Fringe.” They investigate all these weird and crazy happenings (kind of like a science-y X-Files) headed up by an awesome crazy scientist named Walter. If Walter was perhaps interested in baseball, I imagine he would keep throwing pitchers into Petco to see just how far he could push it before the park’s magical powers finally broke. I think he’d probably find that the answer lies somewhere near LeBlanc. The magic runs thin here, so tread carefully.

Zach Duke, LHP, ARI (5.72 ERA, 4.99 FIP, +0.73 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Out of the cauldron (bad defense in Pittsburgh) and into the fire (Chase’s horrible park factor), I’ve given up hope on Duke.

Bartolo Colon, RHP, NYY (N/A: Eating)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He finally gave in and added that third chin. His parents must be proud.

Jake Arrieta, RHP, BAL (4.66 ERA, 4.75 FIP, -0.09 Differential)
Defense: Neutral
Park Factor:
I’m not a huge fan. He’s got more upside than what he showed last year, but he doesn’t have frontline starter stuff or control. His upside is probably as a 3rd starter in the long run, and in the interim, he’s a 4th/5th starter with some strikeout potential but a lack of control that will hurt in both ERA and WHIP. And, oh yeah, he’s in the worst division imaginable while pitching in a poor park for pitchers. Let the guy in your league who loves young arms pay for him, because he’s unlikely to help you this season.

Barry Enright, RHP, ARI (3.91 ERA, 5.62 FIP, -1.71 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
There are some small things to like here as Enright possesses good control and could aid in WHIP with any luck at all. And the very good outfield defense in Arizona should aid the flyball-prone righty whenever possible. But when it comes right down to it, he’s a soft-tossing righty who serves up a bunch of very hittable pitches right around the plate in a stadium that likes to let flyballs sail over the wall. That’s not a great combination for success. He could be useful in doses, but be wary.

Kyle Lohse, RHP, STL (6.55 ERA, 4.42 FIP, +2.13 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
St. Louis’ defense is worse than it’s been in a while, Lohse’s stuff is worse than it’s ever been, and pitchers around the league are better than they’ve been in recent memory, too. Lohse should not be on your roster except in the deepest of NL leagues where you’re looking for Wins at the expense of all your other categories. I’d rather have a good middle reliever than Lohse. Heck, I’d rather have a mid-life crisis than Lohse, too. Luck is going to be the only thing that will make Lohse an asset in 2011. So ask yourself, “Do I feel lucky?” I’d let the other (punk) owners be the ones to answer yes to that question.

Felipe Paulino, RHP, COL (5.11 ERA, 3.44 FIP, +1.67 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
The Good: Paulino’s velocity is excellent. The Bad: He has an inconsistent release point, and he’s got very little in the way of deception, too. His tertiary pitches are either flat (his curveball looks like a rainbow, and not in a good way) or altogether crappy (the change-up just isn’t there for him). The Ugly: He simply doesn’t have an attack plan against lefties due to his lack of deception coupled with his poor change-up and curve. Unless he either gets some help on refining his release point to aid his control or finds some life on his change, Paulino’s future is as a reliever. He’s got upside (anybody with fastball velocity and strikeout stuff generally does), but unless you’re paying bottom dollar, you probably don’t want to bank on any kind of breakout.

Carlos Monasterios, RHP, LAD
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor (RHP):
I like his name. It’s like monastery combined with mysterious – Carlos the Mysterious Monastery. Of course, that’s about the nicest thing I can say about his pitching. Which is to say, avoid.

Luis Atilano, RHP, WAS (5.15 ERA, 5.00 FIP, +0.15 Differential)
Defense: Scared to see him on the mound
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Atilano scares me. There’s an off chance his control could help him not totally suck, but why bother taking that chance? There are plenty of other pitchers with much more upside on whom you could take the plunge without fear of totally drowning.

Sean O’Sullivan, RHP, KC (Crappy ERA, Crappier FIP, Inconsequential Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Crappy pitcher, meet crappy team. Enjoy your honeymoon.

Scott Olsen, LHP, PIT (5.56 ERA, 4.45 FIP, +1.11 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
If he had a better defense behind him, I’d suggest at least giving him a look early on and seeing what his velocity looked like. As it stands, Pittsburgh is a den of (defensive) evil, so there’s very little hope here unless Olsen starts spilling rum in Jobu’s cup (and maybe in the cups of Pirate fans, too).

Brian Burres, LHP, PIT (4.99 ERA, 4.93 FIP, +0.06 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Crap Factor: HIGH. VERY HIGH.

Chris Young, RHP, NYM (Injured, as per usual)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Young hasn’t been good for a few years now as his stuff has declined beyond the point of no return. The Mets will be very unlikely to get anything out of him other than a hefty doctor’s bill. So go ahead and save yourself the shrink visit – don’t draft Young this year.

Bobby Cramer, LHP, OAK (3.04 ERA, 5.49 FIP, -2.45 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Good curveball, good control, and a good defense behind him = slight intrigue. Add in Oakland’s park factor, which absolutely crushes right-handed power, and Cramer is something of an AL sleeper in 2011. He’s practically ancient as far as prospects go, but even crafty minor league veterans end up in a perfect situation every now and again. There’s a little room for profit here if he earns a rotation spot at any point.

Lucas Harrell, RHP, CHW (4.88 ERA, 5.04 FIP, -0.16 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Harrell is an extreme groundballer only without any semblance of strikeout stuff or good control. He’s like a horror movie in motion for a fantasy owner.

Yunesky Maya, RHP, WAS (4.50 ERA, 4.30 FIP, +0.30 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
There’s a small hope in me that what we saw with Maya towards the end of last season wasn’t really indicative of what we’ll get from him in the future. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him put up 6 K/9 and 3 BB/9 marks after acclimating himself to the big leagues from his defection from Cuba. He’s a risky play, for certain, but there’s more here than meets the eye. I’m sure of it. That said, treat him like a cooked hand grenade that could go off in your face at any time. Be ready to run. And scream. And yell if you still have the air for it.

Anthony Lerew, LHP, KC (Hideous ERA, Slightly less hideous FIP, You do the math)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Just another of Dayton Moore’s attempts to replicate the 2007 Atlanta Braves’ system. This is kind of like me getting nostalgic for my college years and trying to reassemble my awesome freshman year dorm hall. Seems like a good idea at first until we realize that Goldeneye 64 actually has a lot of issues these days. And the jerkface that chooses OddJob always ruins it for us. Always. Not only can I imagine Moore getting his hall back together, while refusing to see all the chinks in the game’s armor, but I also believe in my heart of hearts that Dayton Moore is an OddJob man.

Andrew Miller, LHP, BOS (Just don’t worry about it)
Defense:
Park Factor:
He’s a gas can. Avoid unless you like the way the flames flicker and dance.

Wesley Wright, LHP, HOU (5.73 ERA, 5.14 FIP, -0.59 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
I once had a girlfriend who enjoyed watching things burn. I’m sure she would’ve enjoyed watching Wright pitch.

Greg Smith, LHP, COL (6.23 ERA, 6.08 FIP, +0.15 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Run away. Quickly.

John Maine, RHP, FA (6.13 ERA, 5.78 FIP, +0.35 Differential)
Defense: N/A
Park Factor: N/A
Even if he finds a gig in the Majors this year, make sure he doesn’t end up on your fantasy team.

Ivan Nova, RHP, NYY (4.50 ERA, 4.36 FIP, +0.14 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
While Nova may be a decent 5th starter type for many teams, it’s unlikely that he will be any kind of asset to fantasy owners in 2011. In my defensive rank column, I noted that the Yankees have a great defensive outfield but a poor defensive infield. This is of particular consequence to a guy like Nova, who is a fairly extreme groundball pitcher. Nova gets an immediate downgrade on his projected FIP to ERA translation simply because the Yankees aren’t very good for his pitching style. Add in that Yankee Stadium plays very poorly for right-handed pitchers, and I think you’ve got a recipe for avoidance.

Ian Snell, RHP, STL (6.41 ERA, 6.45 FIP, -0.04 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
It’s telling that, even in the face of Wainwright’s injury and devastating blow to the Cards’ rotation, Snell isn’t mentioned as a serious candidate for a starting job with the Cards. He’s as mercurial as they come. Avoid.

Oliver Perez, LHP, NYM (6.80 ERA, 6.99 FIP, -0.19 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor:
Head Factor: Infinitely Negative
There’s an Omar Minaya joke here somewhere. I just know it.

Jesse Litsch, RHP, TOR (5.79 ERA, 5.44 FIP, +0.39 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
Combine a pitcher who lobs “fast” balls over the plate an awful lot with a homerun happy ballpark and you get a pretty crappy fantasy investment. There are plenty of control pitchers out there who aren’t playing most of their games in the Rogers Centre. Spend your money on them instead.

J.D. Martin, RHP, WAS (4.13 ERA, 4.97 FIP, -0.84 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: NEUTRAL
Martin gives up more homers than Charlie Brown. I wonder if the Nats have whiplash insurance on him.

Chris Tillman, RHP, BAL (5.87 ERA, 5.89 FIP, -0.02 Differential)
Defense: NEUTRAL
Park Factor:
Tillman’s fastball, and subsequently his confidence, has gone flaccid. Until he can find some kind of velocity Viagra, he’s not someone I would want as a fantasy bedfellow.

Jason Marquis, RHP, WAS (6.60 ERA, 5.65 FIP, -0.95 Differential)
Defense:
Park Factor: Neutral
Sometimes I enjoy watching a good action movie with lots of explosions and expletives. I also enjoy watching Marquis owners throughout the season for the same reasons – lots of explosions and expletives.

«« Speculative Plays

Pick 11.10, 160th overall – SP Andrew Heaney

Pick 12.06, 171st overall – RP Jose Alvarado

Pick 13.10, 190th overall – 1B Eric Hosmer

Pick 14.06, 201st overall – SP Ross Stripling

Pick 15.10, 220th overall – OF Max Kepler

Pick 16.06, 231st overall – RP Andrew Miller

Pick 17.10, 250th overall – C Welington Castillo

Pick 18.06, 261st overall – 3B Maikel Franco

Pick 19.10, 280th overall – OF Odubel Herrera

Pick 20.06, 291st overall – SP Jake Junis

Pick 21.10, 310th overall – OF Kole Calhoun