
Andy checks in with five players to buy or sell soon before their asking price goes up, or before their hot start fades. Houston Astros starting pitcher Gerrit Cole is a strong buy.
The second full week of the season is underway and a lot of us might be pushing the panic button already because of a slow start. Fear not. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, but you may also look at fantasy baseball as a stock market game – buy low and sell high – to push your team higher in the standings. Here are some thoughts on five players based on their recent performance.
Dansby Swanson, ATL
Atlanta Braves offense is among the top teams in runs scored this year and that’s without top prospect Ronald Acuna. Swansby was a top rated prospect for the Arizona Diamondbacks until they sent him to the Braves for Shelby Miller (oops). Still, Swanson is hitting .400 with one home run and seven RBI early on.
Although these are solid numbers to start the year, I don’t think he’s going to maintain it. He’s only 24 years old but reviewing his prior two season, he has only six stolen bases, so he doesn’t add much on the basepaths, and has a combined WAR of 1.3 for his MLB career. He’s not in danger of losing his job but there are plenty of other options out there.
Fantasy Advice – Sell
If you can, find a Braves fan exchanging Swanson for a slow starting but reliable veteran, and hopefully with rose-colored glasses they will take him off your hands. Otherwise, you may end up dropping him sooner rather than later.
Johnny Cueto, SF
If the San Francisco Giants didn’t have bad luck, they wouldn’t have any luck at all. Madison Bumgarner is out until May and Mark Melancon is out for the foreseeable future with forearm surgery. Cueto has a stellar 0.69 ERA through the first week of the season but there is no way this continues. Cueto has good name recognition but was projected as a 5th to 6th tier starting pitcher, with a .500 record and an ERA nearing 3.80 to 3.90 and WHIP nearing 1.30.
You have to tip your cap to Cuteo. In his first two games this year, he struck out 11 against the Los Angeles Dodgers giving up one hit and shut down a tough Seattle Mariners’ offense giving up eight hits in his six innings of work. However, he is heading into his age 32 season and has close to 1,800 innings in that right arm. Facing the Dodgers in LA and the Mariners in Seattle are both good pitching matchups, but the weather will soon warm up and so will team’s bats.
Fantasy Advice – Sell
The Giants offense isn’t going to be able to score enough runs to get Cueto wins and that ERA is ripe to blow up.
Gerrit Cole, HOU
After watching Cole pitch this weekend, I still can’t believe he’s identified as the Houston Astros’ number four starter. It certainly speaks to the talent on this team. His fastball is 95+ and he’s throwing it like he did during his 2015 year with the Pittsburgh Pirates. I targeted Cole in my drafts but unfortunately missed out. If he’s available in your league at a reasonable price, jump on it.
Fantasy Advice – Buy
Maybe the owner in your league with Cole will accept an offer involving a higher drafted pitcher you think is less likely to sustain a good start, like Rick Porcello or maybe even Johnny Cueto. With the lineup support and the fact he’s facing other team’s lower end pitchers, Cole is in line for a great season.
Didi Gregorius, NYY
Gregorius is in a win/win situation. Depending on how Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton do ahead of him, he’s either going to see a ton of pitches because opposing teams don’t want to throw cookies to Judge or Stanton, or pitchers will decide to throw to Gregorius and try and avoid Gary Sanchez.
On April 3rd, Stanton was o’fer with eight guys left on base. Gregorius oddly enough had eight RBI including two home runs. Although Stanton has been struggling, it doesn’t seem to impact Gregorius to a great degree, and I expect Stanton to come around anyway. Didi had a break out season last year hitting 25 home runs and driving in 87. His numbers improved every year since 2015 and he has really taken over for the guy who used to play shortstop for the Yankees; Derek something or other.
Fantasy Advice – Buy
I honestly would give up Elvis Andrus to get Didi. Didi will hit for more power, score more runs and have a higher OPS than Andrus. He’s a top offensive shortstop and should be on your team. Buy now before the price gets higher.
Rhys Hoskins, PHI
The upside for Hoskins is tremendous based on the limited amount of at-bats and what he did with said at-bats. He is off to a good start this season with one home run and seven RBI. In 195 at-bats in 2017, Hoskins hit 19 home runs and drove in 55. In 2016 with the Reading Fightin’ Phils of Class AA, he hit .281 with 38 home runs and 116 RBI. When he finally got the call last year, he was hitting .284 with 29 home runs and 91 RBI at the AAA level.
Hoskins has plenty of protection in the lineup from Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera. The Phillies are going to score runs. It is the other things that worry me with the Phillies (the manager, the manager and the manager), but Hoskins should continue to put up big numbers.
Fantasy Advice – Buy
You can sell a trade to Hoskins’ fantasy owner leaning on the uncertainty playing for Gabe Kapler. Perhaps move Joey Votto for Hoskins plus another nice piece to bolster your team.