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San Francisco 49ers Team Report

August 4, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Are San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick and new WR Torrey Smith a good fit? Will tutelage from Kurt Warner help? Does new OC Geep Chryst allow Kaep to run more? Lots of tough questions to forecast a make-or-break season for the San Fran QB.

Are San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick and new WR Torrey Smith a good fit? Will tutelage from Kurt Warner help? Does new OC Geep Chryst allow Kaep to run more? Lots of tough questions to forecast a make-or-break season for the San Fran QB.

QB Colin Kaepernick

At first glance, Kaepernick’s numbers from a year ago weren’t all that bad. He completed 60.5% of his passes. He had a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 19 to 10. He threw for a career-high 3,369 yards. On the ground, he contributed a career-high 641 yards. However, after being drafted as a mid to lower tier QB1 in most leagues, he finished the season as the 16th ranked fantasy quarterback mainly because his passing touchdowns declined from 21 to 19 and his rushing touchdowns declined from four to one. 49ers observers will tell you that the team struggled to move the ball at times and Kaepernick was a big part of the problem. He struggles against better defenses, lacks accuracy and doesn’t always take what opposing defenses are giving him, hence an offseason spent under the tutelage of Kurt Warner. Will it help? We’re not so sure. Kaepernick failed to top 20 fantasy points in nine of 10 games from Week 5 to Week 15 and had less than 220 passing yards in 10 games. With a pair of aging receivers in Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis, Kaepernick’s best bet to regain QB1 status is with his legs, but will new offensive coordinator Geep Chryst allow him to run the ball more frequently? Perhaps but with a tough schedule on tap in 2015 we view him as a mid-tier QB2 with some upside.

RB Carlos Hyde

With Frank Gore having signed with Indianapolis in the offseason, Hyde will take over as the 49ers lead back in 2015. The 5’11”, 230 pound former 2nd round pick enjoyed a solid rookie season gaining 333 yards and four touchdowns on 83 carries while adding 12 receptions for 68 yards as a receiver. He enjoyed a stellar collegiate career at Ohio State and, at 5’11” and 230 pounds, is built to handle a workhorse role as a pro. Unfortunately for Hyde, his path to fantasy success is going to be a little tougher than it was for Gore during his last few years in San Francisco. With head coach and offensive guru Jim Harbaugh having left the team and an offensive line that lost a pair of Pro Bowl quality players in Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, the 49ers could struggle on offense in 2015. With Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter backing up Hyde, he is in-line for a Gore-type workload in his first season as the team’s starter. While Hyde has breakout potential, we can’t endorse him as a RB1. More likely, Hyde will settle into low RB2 production unless the whole 49ers offense exceeds expectations.

RB Reggie Bush

At 30 years of age and coming off an injury plagued, disappointing season in Detroit, Bush joins the 49ers backfield where he is expected to work as a change of pace, pass receiving option behind second year player Carlos Hyde. While the expectation is that Bush won’t get much playing time, it is important to remember that this is a team that may struggle in 2015 and spend more time playing catch up than in previous years. In Detroit, Bush enjoyed a solid season in 2013 with over 1,500 total yards and seven touchdowns before seeing his production decline to 550 yards and two touchdowns last season as an ankle injury caused him to miss five games and limited his effectiveness in several others. While his days as a leading back and potential mid-tier RB2 are behind him, Bush could provide value in larger leagues and PPR formats as a player who will likely catch 50 passes in 2015. He rates as a mid-tier RB4 in standard leagues and an upper tier RB4 in PPR formats.

RB Kendall Hunter

Despite coming off an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of the 2014 season, Hunter was re-signed by the 49ers in the offseason and will compete with Reggie Bush and rookie 4th round pick Mike Davis to backup presumptive starter Carlos Hyde. While Hunter has been productive when healthy, averaging a solid 4.6 yards per carry on 262 career carries, he hasn’t emerged as a great pass catching option out of the backfield (just 27 career receptions) and it seems apparent the 49ers do not view him as feature back material, likely due to his size at 5’7” and 199 pounds. Since Hunter was taken in the 4th round of the 2011 draft, San Francisco has drafted LaMichael James (2nd round), Marcus Lattimore (4th round), Carlos Hyde (2nd round) and Mike Davis (4th round). And during the offseason they added Reggie Bush to back up Hyde. Hunter doesn’t have any fantasy value in 2015.

RB Mike Davis

Taken in the 4th round of this year’s draft, Davis joins a crowded 49ers backfield that will feature Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter in 2015. That doesn’t bode well for his fantasy prospects this season. However, the 5’9”, 223 pound South Carolina product has some value in dynasty formats since only Hyde seems like a surefire bet to return to the team in 2016.

WR Torrey Smith

After four solid, yet hardly spectacular years in Baltimore after being taken in the 1st round of the 2011 NFL Draft, Smith was signed to a five-year, $40-million in the offseason to join the 49ers. While Smith has blazing speed and has proven adept at finding the end zone with 30 touchdowns in his career, he has failed to develop into a solid all around wide receiver. Joining the 49ers, Smith leaves a solid deep ball thrower in Joe Flacco in order to catch passes from Colin Kaepernick, a player who has struggled with his accuracy throughout his career. In his final year in Baltimore, Smith finished as the 19th ranked wide receiver, catching 49 of his 92 targets for 767 yards (all career lows), but a career high 11 touchdowns. Since his touchdown production is all but guaranteed to decline as he moves to a less effective offense, Smith will need to improve as a short and intermediate option in the passing game to remain a lower tier WR2 for fantasy purposes. After four years in the league, we don’t see that happening. That makes Smith an upper tier WR4 with upside and one who will almost certainly struggle with consistency.

WR Anquan Boldin

After failing to top 1,000 receiving yards during his final three years in Baltimore, the fantasy community was ready to write Boldin off when he signed with the 49ers prior to the 2013 season. However, Boldin proved the naysayers wrong during his first year in San Francisco, catching 85 of his 129 targets (65.4% completion to target rate) for 1,179 yards and seven touchdowns as he finished the season as the 15th ranked fantasy wide receiver. Nonetheless, he was written off again prior to the 2014 season but posted nearly identical stats with 83 receptions for 1,062 yards and five touchdowns, finishing as the 22nd ranked wide receiver. At 34 years of age (35 in October), what is in store for Boldin in 2015? Well, Michael Crabtree and Stevie Johnson are no longer in San Francisco and while the 49ers signed Torrey Smith in free agency, the net result is positive for Boldin. Smith’s speed should take coverage away from Boldin and the team lacks a proven, consistent 3rd wide receiver with the enigmatic Jerome Simpson the frontrunner to fill that role. Nonetheless, Boldin’s advancing age and lack of speed lead us to believe that a reduction in his production is likely. While his touchdown count should remain steady, we don’t see him reaching 1,000 yards unless the 49ers spend plenty of time playing from behind (a not unrealistic possibility). He rates as a lower WR3 or upper tier WR4 with a slight boost in PPR formats.

WR Jerome Simpson

Entering his seventh year in the league, Simpson moves on to his third team having signed with the 49ers in the offseason. A one-trick pony capable of stretching defenses, Simpson caught 48 passes for 726 yards and a touchdown last year with the Vikings. In San Francisco, he will serve as a deep threat behind starters Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith provided he beats out Quinton Patton, Bruce Ellington and rookie DeAndre Smelter for that role. Since Simpson’s career highs are 50 receptions, 726 yards and four touchdowns and he has caught just 145 of 286 targets during his career, he isn’t a player that we can recommend adding to your fantasy roster.

WR Quinton Patton, WR Bruce Ellington and WR DeAndre Smelter

49ers general manager Trent Balke keeps using mid-round picks on wide receivers and keeps striking out. First it was Patton, taken in the 4th round pick in the 2013 draft. Then it was Bruce Ellington in the 4th round of the 2014 draft. And this year they drafted DeAndre Smelter in, you guessed it, the 4th round. Did we mention that they traded a conditional 4th round pick to acquire Steve Johnson (since departed) last year? And what did they do after deciding they weren’t going to re-sign Michael Crabtree? They signed Torrey Smith in free agency. That tells you all you need to know about the fantasy prospects of this trio. If you’re in a dynasty league and have a roster spot to fill, Smelter would be my pick. He is coming off an ACL injury and would have gone higher in the draft had he not suffered the injury.

TE Vernon Davis

On the plus side, Davis is entering the final year of his contract. Moving to the negatives, he is a 31-year old tight end coming off the worst year of his career who struggled with a lingering back injury for much of 2014. While Davis averaged just under 60 receptions, over 800 yards and 8.8 touchdowns during the five-year period from 2009-2013, he appeared to have lost a step last season and his role in the 49ers offense was clearly curtailed as Davis was targeted just 50 times in 13 games. With Davis entering the final year of his contract and in decline, we don’t see the 49ers increasing his role significantly in 2015, making him a low end TE2.

Also see: San Francisco 49ers IDP Team Report · St. Louis Rams Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, NFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

After much posturing, RB Adrian Peterson returns to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have little reason to not run AP into the ground. He won’t be back in 2016.

After much posturing, RB Adrian Peterson returns to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have little reason to not run AP into the ground. He won’t be back in 2016.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Chicago Bears

  • Jay Cutler had the highest completion percentage and second highest points-per-game of his career last season. He hasn’t played 16 games since 2009 (15 three times). Cutler is Cutler at this point. He’ll put up some big games with his strong arm but he’ll also be shite half the time. He lost security blanket Brandon Marshall, and Matt Forte’s receptions should come down. Former Denver Broncos OC Adam Gase, even under conservative John Fox, could be a plus.
  • Forte should not be utilized as much as he was under Marc Trestman, but still a do-it-all RB worthy of a high fantasy pick. The Bears have a couple young players waiting in the wings, planning ahead for life without Forte. Training camp should decide the true handcuff.
  • Can Alshon Jeffery do the same for rookie Kevin White that Marshall did for Jeffery, mentor him to become a top NFL wideout? Projecting this year, Jeffery has a good opportunity to increase his targets and receptions, without Marshall and a scale back for Forte. White will start opposite Jeffery but isn’t likely to be ready for a ton of targets. Cutler will lock on to a receiver he is comfortable with.
  • Martellus Bennett was second in TE targets last season. With a rookie WR and not much at WR3 for the Bears, he should be in the mix for similar targets this season.

Detroit Lions

  • Matthew Stafford was a disappointment last season, and he can’t blame the absence of Calvin Johnson for three games because Golden Tate was a pleasant surprise, filling in admirably. We’ve got Stafford leading the league in pass attempts, which is in part an indictment of the running game, and desire to get TE Eric Ebron more involved. A modest bounce back for Stafford which makes him a fantasy starter, but not an overly desirable one.
  • The running game is Joique Bell, rookie Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick. Reggie Bush signed with the San Francisco 49ers. Bell is average, Abdullah and Riddick are small at just a hair over 200 lbs. Some fantasy experts are bullish about Abdullah. He’s got a good opportunity for an immediate impact.
  • Calvin Johnson recorded his lowest targets, receptions and yards this decade last season. His 3-year average is skewed high due to his record setting 2012 season. The current short downward trend provides an opportunity to acquire Johnson, now 29-years old, at a discount from his natural talent level. Golden Tate was impressive last season, but scaling back his projections this year to 80-1,000-6.
  • Ebron is a tough call this season. The team wants him more involved, but is he ready for that? This is one where his cheatsheet ranking should be higher than his projections would place him based on potential.

Green Bay Packers

  • Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck are projected extremely close to one another in fantasy points, but Rodgers has 50 fewer pass attempts and 10 fewer rushes. Rodgers ticks all the boxes to justify grabbing an elite QB early in your draft.
  • Eddie Lacy followed up a 280 carry, 1,100 yard rookie season with a 250 carry, 1,100 yard sophomore season. That is impressive. He’ll be the workhorse no doubt because there is nothing behind him on the depth chart worth mentioning. Projecting very similar output as last season.
  • Jordy Nelson required offseason hip surgery but doesn’t seem the least bit concerned about it. I didn’t expect Randall Cobb to stay healthy to play 16 games last season. He did, and he was great. A repeat 90 receptions for each of Nelson and Cobb might be tough if up and comer Davante Adams gets a bump, but there is still a black hole at TE on this team (for fantasy).

Minnesota Vikings

  • After a lot of chest pumping, Adrian Peterson returned to Vikings team activities, making our full season workload projection less up in the air. The Vikings have little reason to not run AP into the ground. He won’t be back. We have him down his 3-year average but, similar to Calvin Johnson, the average is skewed due to his near record setting 2012 season.
  • Teddy Bridgewater showed nice progress as the season went on last year, especially considering things went off the rails quickly with Peterson. We’re expecting a similar trend starting and through this season, to the tune of a slightly sub-4,000 yard season and 20 TD. He has a nice supporting cast and a smart offensive coordinator in Norv Turner. A solid choice for a backup QB with potential to exceed expectations.
  • Mike Wallace comes to town. No doubt his contract has outpaced his on-field performance, but even with difficulties connecting or getting on the same page with the Dolphins Ryan Tannehill, Wallace did score 10 TD last season. Wallace is never going to be a monster reception guy, but Turner can probably maximize what Wallace brings to the table.
  • Charles Johnson was a nice surprise last year and earned a projection placing him inside the top 40 WR, but we can’t go too crazy by the time Peterson and Wallace have their touches. Cordarelle Patterson disappointed fantasy owners last season and no real reason to think he’ll ever live up to the 2014 fantasy hype.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Player Projections Released, NFC West Commentary

June 1, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Our initial fantasy football player projections are released for the 2015 season! Is Arizona Cardinals Carson Palmer the odds on favourite for comeback player of the year?

Our initial fantasy football player projections are released for the 2015 season! Is Arizona Cardinals QB Carson Palmer the odds on favourite for comeback player of the year?

Our Draft Buddy software, for fantasy football, is oh so very close to being released. In fact, while we already started off strong for the 2015 season with Dave’s early rankings series, and Tony’s top rookies series, this is the week we turn the page for our official kickoff of the new season.

Yes, Draft Buddy is on tap. However, lets get things rolling with our initial 2015 fantasy football player projections. The rankings and projections at DraftBuddy.com will be a joint effort by Dave Stringer and myself again this season. To get rolling, projections are uploaded, rankings are based purely on fantasy points generated from those projections, and our player pages are updated.

Over the next 2-3 weeks, we will continue to review, research and adjust the initial projections, plus alter the rankings to account for risk and upside, plus add all-important tiers to the cheatsheets. Then we will continue with regular updates all the way through the summer to the start of the NFL season. Team reports with fantasy outlook player commentary starts rolling out soon, too.

Draft Buddy, as in the past, will include default projections from FF Today (as it is also sold at that website), but all customers will be able to access and include the DraftBuddy.com projections as an extra set of projections in Draft Buddy. Any dynasty players in the house? I know there are. I can also show you how to import dynasty rankings into Draft Buddy.

Okay, with that introduction out of the way, lets get to some commentary on the initial projections. As part of my review of the projections, I thought a good way to go about it is to write some points about key players and why their projections are up or down from their historical averages. Plus, you’ll see some early insight into our thought process, and be able to identify some players that have some upside, or represent some risk, even at their current projected statistics.

I organized my notes by division, so lets get started with the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals

  • Carson Palmer possible comeback player of the year? Projections are very much in line with 3-year average, but should he be trending down due to age and recovery from ACL tear (Week 10, 2014)? A shoulder injury caused Palmer to miss Weeks 2-5 last season.
  • Andre Ellington with a decrease in his prorated numbers across the board, but limiting his touches should make him more effective. Bruce Arians likes a big running back, and will utilize rookie David Johnson in this role that Rashard Mendenhall held last season for 217-687-8.
  • This offense spreads the ball around. Larry Fitzgerald says its, “not possible” for him to put up big numbers given his role. Much as we hate to admit it, seems his skill is also eroding. We have similar targets for each of Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Expected Floyd to be a breakout candidate last year, and he disappointed. Brown was a surprise. Both represent some upside if we were a year too early on Floyd, and Brown progresses.

San Francisco 49ers

  • Can Colin Kaepernick be a more effective quarterback after some offseason mentoring from Kurt Warner? It at least appears to be some commitment to staying the course – trying to develop into more of a pocket-passer – while utilizing his legs when necessary. Some improvement in his receiving options +Torrey Smith +Reggie Bush –Michael Crabtree –Frank Gore. Expecting a downturn in the defense which could result in more pass attempts, wide open play benefitting Kaep for fantasy.
  • Carlos Hyde’s time to step up. Should garner large bulk of the team carries. Bush is angling to return punts, Kendall Hunter is recovering from a torn ACL, and rookies Mike Davis and Jarryd Hayne round out the depth chart. Wouldn’t take much in terms of more carries, targets or rushing touchdowns (perhaps limited by Kaep) to bump up Hyde from where we conservatively have him out of the gate.
  • A career high yards in 2013, following by career high in touchdowns in 2014 for Torrey Smith. Able to put them together with a new team? Nah. Projecting a 50% catch rate on just over 100 targets, modest TDs. Boldin a slight reduction off his 3-year average. Vernon Davis should start the season where he finished last season in many leagues, on the waiver wire.

Seattle Seahawks

  • Projecting an uptick in Russell Wilson’s passing stats while a decline in rushing from last season back to 2012 and 2013 norms. Still a sub-500 attempt, sub-4,000 yard passer.
  • Marshawn Lynch is 29 years old, and has a lot of mileage including eight playoff games the last three seasons. Projecting modest declines in his 3-year average numbers. Still great numbers but better to be conservative.
  • A decline from his days with the Saints, sure, but Jimmy Graham should still dominate targets on this team over the likes of Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, et al. Why else pay a hefty price and bring him here? Projected for 9 TD.
  • Not expecting much from the wide receivers, each between 30-60 receptions.

St. Louis Rams

  • Nick Foles projected as the full season starter but clearly, not confident he will start 16 games. More the de facto starter, an indictment of the options behind him. A game manager role, 20 TD without too many costly turnovers are what the Rams will hope for; 60-65% probability they get that.
  • Todd Gurley is a great talent, but if the competitive window isn’t there for the Rams this year, why rush him into a heavy workload? Gurley tore his ACL in November, 2014. We are projecting a split in carries with Tre Mason. Gurley is an endgame pick. Assuming rehab goes well, he could be super the second half of the season. Jeff Fisher will commit to the run, and the strong defense supports this, but don’t overpay for Gurley on draft day. Mason might be an early season value.
  • Oi! These receivers are none too good. With a conservative passing game, none will get an opportunity to breakout if that is even still in them. Prefer Kenny Britt (entering 8th season) to Brian Quick (4th) if I had to choose one to take a shot on as my WR4 or WR5.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

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