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Draft Buddy Update, Fantasy Football Rankings + Unique Best Ball Draft

July 20, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Fantasy football rankings are live! These are available on the website and in Draft Buddy using the alternate rankings feature, and updated regularly to the start of the NFL season.

Fantasy football players are coming out of the woodwork as NFL training camps opened this week (one team – Baltimore Ravens; most start next week). NFL news is at a slow crawl currently but once they get the pads on and start preseason games then we will be full steam ahead towards your fantasy football draft scheduled for August or early September.

Draft Buddy Projections Update

Draft Buddy, our featured custom rankings and draft tracking tool (details · purchase), is up and running and ready to help you prep for your 2018 fantasy football draft. We’ve already updated the projections, depth charts and average draft position (ADP) data five times since the initial release on June 6, the most recent yesterday morning. We will continue regular weekly updates, usually Thursday mornings, plus unscheduled updates as necessary for breaking news.

Review this demo video on how to update Draft Buddy:

Note if you have more than one copy of Draft Buddy, for multiple leagues, then you need to update in each file.

2018 Fantasy Football Rankings

My initial 2018 fantasy football rankings are up on the website and available in Draft Buddy under the alternate rankings feature found on the offense and overall tabs. I should do a video about that feature. The way it works, is you can pull in straight rankings from FF Today, Dynasty League Football* or DraftBuddy.com (yours truly) to the cheatsheets as an alternate to generating custom cheatsheets based on projections in Draft Buddy.

* DLF rankings are an extra bonus for Draft Buddy users, as they are a premium DLF subscriber-only feature. Thank you DLF!

This is beneficial if you want, for example, dynasty-specific rankings, or a quick start with player rankings that align to your beliefs. Rankings are advantageous in some ways to pure projection-based rankings because they can better factor in risk-reward of more volatile players.

Back to the rankings, my overall rankings still need some work. Part of my online admin tool to update the rankings is supposed to identify where the overall rankings are inconsistent with the position rankings, but for some reason that isn’t working currently. Add another item to the to-do list… Plus, the deeper RB and WR tiers are very fluid, which is a nice way to say I could spend an infinite amount of time moving players around in those groupings.

I feel good about the QB and TE rankings, and the Top 50-60 RB and WR rankings, which is a decent start for what is a continuous work-in-progress project. From now through the start of the NFL season I will continue to adjust the rankings and add comments to go with them, based on additional research, news, and my own draft experience. Speaking of which, I joined a new best ball draft that started earlier this week.

Super-Flex Best Ball League

Thank you Draft Buddy! Let me explain…

I was invited to a new best ball draft by Jim Day over at Fighting Chance Fantasy. Best ball? Sure, sounds great. I love to draft but tough to add a new in-season management league. It is a super-flex league, too (meaning we can flex a QB), which I find more interesting to draft lately. I figured the lineup and scoring would otherwise be fairly standard. Not even close. A few examples:

Long passing plays 50+ yards = 3 points (QB)
Long rushing plays 40+ yards = 3 points (QB), 2 (RB)
Long receptions 40+ yards = 3.0 points (RB), 2.0 (WR)
Long receptions 20+ yards = 1.5 points (TE)
Receiving yards = 1 point per 7.5 (RB), 1 per 8 (WR) and 1 per 9 (TE)
Receptions = 0.7 points each (RB), 1.4 (WR) and 2.0 (TE)
Targets = 0.5 points (TE) and nil, nada, nothing for other positions
Receiving first downs = 0.5 points (TE) and nil, nada, nothing for other positions

Other yardage and touchdown scoring does change slightly from position to position, too. All said and done, thank you Draft Buddy! Due to our handy spreadsheet, I could input a lot of this unique scoring and get a good sense of the value of different positions. This is not your traditional scoring league!

Oh, and I should also say the starting lineup is big. Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 3 Flex, one of which can be a QB making it a super-flex. Between the scoring and the lineup requirements, can you tell which position is vastly – vastly – higher value than most leagues?

Unique Best Ball Draft Strategy

My roster in this bizarre scoring and format best ball league. TE heavy!

Lets say two players catch a 20 yard pass. Player A is a WR and Player B is a TE. Player A scores 3.9 points. Player B scores 6.72! And, I have to start two TE, a shallow position. Tight end is crazy high value in this league. On the flip side, RB is relatively low value thanks to start two, which is low relative to required starters at other positions, and the scoring.

Randomly assigned the 8th overall pick, I grabbed Rob Gronkowski, and seriously wondered if anyone else noticed the TE value in this league. Ryan Hallam drafted Travis Kelce before my next pick, but I knew from that point forward I wanted to acquire two of the Top 6 tight ends, and even three or four of the top dozen if possible. Delanie Walker (TE5) is projected higher than Tyreek Hill (WR15)!

It made for a very interesting mental exercise trying to guess the picks by other drafters and what players would be left for me to choose from. I didn’t end up taking my first running back – Lamar Miller – until the 8th round.

This draft is currently in the 12th round. You can download my copy of Draft Buddy to review and check the MyFantasyLeague.com draft report for updates.

MFL10 Draft Recap From First and Sixth Overall Picks

August 17, 2015 By AskTony Leave a Comment

In a recent MFL10 draft, Mike selected Minnesota Vikings RB Adrian Peterson at 1.01, and Tony took Green Bay Packers RB Eddie Lacy at 1.06. Check out how the rest of their respective drafts played out.

A great way to practice drafting for your upcoming fantasy football drafts, and to get a handle on Average Draft Position (ADP) for players (not to mention, they are a lot of fun) is to enter an MFL10 fantasy league, hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com.

The format is a redraft league with performance plus PPR scoring. The starting lineup is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE) and 1 DEF for 9 total starters, and 20 roster spots.

MFL10s are draft-only leagues – no trading, no free agency waiver add/drops – and “best ball” scoring. Due to the best ball scoring, NFL players with high weekly variance might get drafted a bit earlier than usual.

Fantasy owners benefit in weeks these players blow up, while the player is automatically benched in weeks they disappear. These riskier players do take up a valuable roster spot however, so all in all, MFL10s are still a good gauge on where players get drafted in our regular fantasy leagues.

Recently, Draft Buddy creator Mike MacGregor and I participated in an MFL10 draft with other industry experts. Let’s take a look at each of our teams, post-draft. Draft Buddy users can review all of the teams in a copy of Draft Buddy that Mike uploaded to our members area that he used during the draft.

Mike: 1.01 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN

It is hard to go wrong with the first overall pick in a redraft. I expect Peterson to have a monster year. I’m thinking “revenge” for 2014. He will be fed every game and no signs point to him slowing down any time soon.

Tony: 1.06 RB Eddie Lacy, GB

Lacy is among the top three running backs in the league, so for him to fall to me at sixth overall, I gladly scooped him up. He is young, he doesn’t have much competition challenging him, and with the best quarterback in the league throwing passes, what is there not to like about Lacy?

Mike: 2.12 RB Justin Forsett, BAL

Forsett was the 2014 breakout candidate of the year as he carried the Ravens backfield after the Ray Rice controversy. With the addition of offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, who helped Matt Forte earn the most receptions by a running back in a season last year, Forsett is in line for a bigger receiving role, which is gold for PPR leagues. Finally, according to Pro Football Focus offensive guard rankings, the Ravens have two in the top 10, meaning Forsett should see some big holes to run through.

Tony: 2.07 WR Calvin Johnson, DET

I will gladly take Calvin Johnson here. Last year, Johnson was the first overall wide receiver taken. Yes, injuries have limited him the past few years, but he is still a freak athlete on a team that loves to throw the ball. Johnson says he is the healthiest he has felt in years, and all signs point to a rebound year.

Mike: 3.01 WR T.Y. Hilton, IND

Hilton is the lead receiver for one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Andrew Luck. With the addition of running back Frank Gore to help keep defenses worried about the run, Hilton should see less defensive coverage. I expect him to finish with a career high in touchdowns, topping his 2014 total of 7.

Tony: 3.06 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

Hopkins went into 2014 as a sleeper and he definitely lived up to that label. He finished as WR14, even with the questionable quarterbacking he had throwing to him. With running back Arian Foster out with a groin injury, Hopkins will see a ton of targets this year as the Texans will likely be playing from behind. I expect Hopkins to finish in the top 15 receivers again.

Mike: 4.12 TE Greg Olsen, CAR

I rank Olsen as my third overall tight end. He continuously produces for the Panthers. With a healthy running game and the addition of Devin Funchess on the outside, Olsen should find plenty of room in the middle of the field.

Tony: 4.07 WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

Sanders helped form one of the best wide receiver duos in the league in 2014. It helps that he has the great Peyton Manning throwing to him. With Demaryius Thomas continuing to demand double coverage, I expect Sanders to have another great year as long as Manning can continue to sling the ball.

Mike: 5.01 WR Jarvis Landry, MIA

Landry was one of the most underappreciated rookie wide receivers in 2014. He finished with 84 receptions on 112 targets, which is an insane 75% catch rate. That translates to a PPR machine. If quarterback Ryan Tannehill continues to take the next step forward, Landry is in for a big season.

Tony: 5.06 RB Shane Vereen, NYG

I have a lot of stock in Vereen this year. Come the end of the year, I expect Vereen to finish as the best running back for the Giants. Not only will he lead the backs in receptions, but, as training camp reports suggest, he will also split the running duties as well. With rookie phenom Odell Beckham Jr. earning double coverage and speedy Victor Cruz returning from injury, Vereen should have plenty of room to work.

Mike: 6.12 RB Doug Martin, TB

Martin gets another, and maybe his last, chance to be the lead back for the Buccaneers. He is their best running option. Training camp reports suggest he has lost weight and body fat in preparation for a major role in the offense. A motivated Martin could produce rewards at the flex option for fantasy teams.

Tony: 6.07 QB Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

Roethlisberger had back-to-back 6 touchdown games in 2014, which is unbelievable. His offensive weapons have only gotten better in 2015. Despite the two-game suspension for running back Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers will be one of the highest scoring teams in the NFL this year. I will gladly take Roethlisberger as my quarterback.

Mike: 7.01 WR Mike Wallace, MIN

Mike Wallace is one of my candidates for sleeper status in 2015, or very underrated if you don’t care for the term sleeper. All the hype in Minnesota is around Charles Johnson, but Wallace is not a guy to forget about. Teddy Bridgewater, who I expect to finish in the top 10 quarterbacks this year, has a healthy Peterson back to keep defenses honest, which means there should be plenty of room for burner Wallace to get open on deep routes.

Tony: 7.06 WR Roddy White, ATL

An oldie but a goodie, White, even though he has a slew of knee injuries the past few years, continues to produce worthy fantasy stats. He may not start the season healthy as his knee is still bothering him, but when healthy, the veteran can still play. In my opinion, a move to the slot may help White thrive as he winds down his career.

Mike: 8.12 RB Rashad Jennings, NYG

Jennings should rotate with Vereen as the lead running back, but as I stated about my 6th round pick, I like Vereen to assume more work than Jennings this year. I expect the Giants to do very well this year, providing adequate opportunities for both players.

Tony: 8.07 TE Martellus Bennett, CHI

Despite holdout talks during OTAs, Bennett has shown up to training camp and been blowing new head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase away. Bennett has proven he can handle a big workload. I like him to finish within the top five this year.

Mike: 9.01 WR Steve Smith, BAL

We have two great veteran choices here in the ninth round. Both Smith and Boldin should continue to lead their respective teams in targets this year. Smith is the lead receiver for the Ravens with only a rookie as the second option.

Tony: 9.06 WR Anquan Boldin, SF

Boldin now has Torrey Smith opposite him, which should help spread the coverage out, allowing Boldin to utilize his great skills.

Mike: 10.12 QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA

Another player with a lot of hype is Tannehill. He has great offensive weapons that should make 2015 a career year for him as long as he continues taking those steps forward.

Tony: 10.07 RB Roy Helu, OAK

I am drinking the Helu Kool-Aid this offseason. I loved him as a sleeper for the Redskins when he came out of college, but Alfred Morris broke out as the lead back. I am not a believer in the Raiders lead back Latavius Murray. I expect Helu to start as the pass catching back, but to make his way to the starter role by year-end.

Mike: 11.01 TE Delanie Walker, TEN

Walker is a very good backup to have on your fantasy team, and he could even suffice as a starter in deep leagues. The Titans are in a transition year with rookie franchise quarterback Marcus Mariota now driving the offense, and Walker could be utilized as a safety valve until the offense gets acclimated.

Tony: 11.06 WR Devin Funchess, CAR

Funchess will play opposite Kelvin Benjamin. Both receivers provide big, athletic targets for quarterback Cam Newton. With Benjamin warranting more coverage, Funchess could be a primary target, especially in the red zone, for Newton.

Mike: 12.12 QB Carson Palmer, ARI

Prior to tearing his ACL, Palmer was having a Pro Bowl season, with 62.9% completions, 11 touchdowns, and three interceptions through six games. In 2015, he looks to finish what he started in 2014.

Tony: 12.07 RB Knile Davis, KC

If an injury were to happen to all top five running backs (boy do I not wish that to ever happen), the best backup to own is Knile Davis. He has proven he can carry the rock well in support of Jamaal Charles.

Mike: 13.01 RB Fred Jackson, BUF

Jackson is the oldest running back in the NFL today. It is undetermined what role he will have in the new Bills offense under head coach Rex Ryan as training camps report indicate rookie Karlos Williams is quickly moving up the depth charts, so Jackson may be in for a position battle all year.

Tony: 13.06 QB Joe Flacco, BAL

Flacco has consistently been a mid-tier quarterback, but a more than suitable backup for this format. With Trestman now the offensive coordinator, Flacco may be asked to throw more often, which could lead to big stats.

Mike: 14.12 WR Phillip Dorsett, IND

Dorsett has quarterback Luck and receiver Hilton showing him the ropes. So much so that he has passed sophomore Donte Moncrief on the depth charts. Dorsett may have a few big games in him this year.

Tony: 14.07 TE Larry Donnell, NYG

Prior to rookie Beckham Jr. joining the active roster last season, Donnell was the hottest tight end in the NFL, even posting a three-touchdown game in Week 4. Donnell will be a serviceable tight end for my bye week.

Mike: 15.01 WR Kenny Britt, STL

Britt has had an underwhelming career in the NFL and he hopes to improve with new quarterback Nick Foles. All Rams receivers are fast and athletic, so Britt may have some stiff competition on the field.

Tony: 15.06 DEF Houston Texans

Any defense with J.J. Watt is automatically a threat for a big scoring week. The man creates a ton of sacks and turnovers, which he converts into touchdowns himself sometimes. The Texans defense will rank in the top five this year again.

Mike: 16.12 QB Blake Bortles, JAC

Bortles struggled in his rookie year in 2014. He now has more offensive weapons and reports are he has taken great strides this offseason.

Tony: 16.07 RB Javorius Allen, BAL

Rookie running back Allen may threaten Forsett as the pass catching back, especially in Trestman’s offense. As I’ve already stated, we should expect to see this offense air the ball out more, so Allen has plenty of potential in PPR leagues.

Mike: 17.01 DEF New England Patriots

The front seven players for the Patriots defense should be dominant this year. It is the defensive backs that are questionable.

Tony: 17.06 WR Josh Huff, PHI

Personally, I feel Josh Huff will earn the number two WR position this year opposite Jordan Matthews. I know rookie Nelson Agholor is there, but Huff has been dominating camp and will come extremely cheap in all drafts this year.

Mike: 18.12 DEF Indianapolis Colts

The Colts defense provides some depth at the position and they will suffice as a backup.

Tony: 18.07 WR Allen Hurns, JAC

Hurns passed Marqise Lee to deserve the number two receiver designation opposite Allen Robinson. We saw Hurns handle the number one role in 2014 quite well, so if Bortles takes that next step in 2015, I expect some big weeks for Hurns.

Mike: 19.01 WR Robert Woods, BUF

With defenses focusing on sophomore Sammy Watkins, Woods may find some open spots on the field for the Bills. He has nothing but upside.

Tony: 19.06 DEF New York Giants

The Giants defense should take a huge step forward this year with their improved linebackers and defensive backs. Let’s just hope Jason Pierre-Paul makes it back quick from his offseason hand injury.

Mike: 20.12 DEF Jacksonville Jaguars

I personally think the Jaguars are the most underrated defense in the league. They have a great linebacker corps and improved their defensive backs. The defensive line still needs improvement. Do not be surprised if they finish in the top 15 this year.

Tony: 20.07 WR Danny Amendola, NE

As my last pick, Amendola is practically free. Over the first four weeks while Tom Brady is likely suspended, Amendola should be a safety valve out of the slot for QB Jimmy Garoppolo.

Below are the final rosters for each team. Which side do you prefer, and what would you do differently constructing your best-ball MFL10 team from either of these draft spots?

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Player Projections Released, NFC West Commentary

June 1, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Our initial fantasy football player projections are released for the 2015 season! Is Arizona Cardinals Carson Palmer the odds on favourite for comeback player of the year?

Our initial fantasy football player projections are released for the 2015 season! Is Arizona Cardinals QB Carson Palmer the odds on favourite for comeback player of the year?

Our Draft Buddy software, for fantasy football, is oh so very close to being released. In fact, while we already started off strong for the 2015 season with Dave’s early rankings series, and Tony’s top rookies series, this is the week we turn the page for our official kickoff of the new season.

Yes, Draft Buddy is on tap. However, lets get things rolling with our initial 2015 fantasy football player projections. The rankings and projections at DraftBuddy.com will be a joint effort by Dave Stringer and myself again this season. To get rolling, projections are uploaded, rankings are based purely on fantasy points generated from those projections, and our player pages are updated.

Over the next 2-3 weeks, we will continue to review, research and adjust the initial projections, plus alter the rankings to account for risk and upside, plus add all-important tiers to the cheatsheets. Then we will continue with regular updates all the way through the summer to the start of the NFL season. Team reports with fantasy outlook player commentary starts rolling out soon, too.

Draft Buddy, as in the past, will include default projections from FF Today (as it is also sold at that website), but all customers will be able to access and include the DraftBuddy.com projections as an extra set of projections in Draft Buddy. Any dynasty players in the house? I know there are. I can also show you how to import dynasty rankings into Draft Buddy.

Okay, with that introduction out of the way, lets get to some commentary on the initial projections. As part of my review of the projections, I thought a good way to go about it is to write some points about key players and why their projections are up or down from their historical averages. Plus, you’ll see some early insight into our thought process, and be able to identify some players that have some upside, or represent some risk, even at their current projected statistics.

I organized my notes by division, so lets get started with the NFC West.

Arizona Cardinals

Carson Palmer possible comeback player of the year? Projections are very much in line with 3-year average, but should he be trending down due to age and recovery from ACL tear (Week 10, 2014)? A shoulder injury caused Palmer to miss Weeks 2-5 last season.
Andre Ellington with a decrease in his prorated numbers across the board, but limiting his touches should make him more effective. Bruce Arians likes a big running back, and will utilize rookie David Johnson in this role that Rashard Mendenhall held last season for 217-687-8.
This offense spreads the ball around. Larry Fitzgerald says its, “not possible” for him to put up big numbers given his role. Much as we hate to admit it, seems his skill is also eroding. We have similar targets for each of Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Expected Floyd to be a breakout candidate last year, and he disappointed. Brown was a surprise. Both represent some upside if we were a year too early on Floyd, and Brown progresses.

San Francisco 49ers

Can Colin Kaepernick be a more effective quarterback after some offseason mentoring from Kurt Warner? It at least appears to be some commitment to staying the course – trying to develop into more of a pocket-passer – while utilizing his legs when necessary. Some improvement in his receiving options +Torrey Smith +Reggie Bush –Michael Crabtree –Frank Gore. Expecting a downturn in the defense which could result in more pass attempts, wide open play benefitting Kaep for fantasy.
Carlos Hyde’s time to step up. Should garner large bulk of the team carries. Bush is angling to return punts, Kendall Hunter is recovering from a torn ACL, and rookies Mike Davis and Jarryd Hayne round out the depth chart. Wouldn’t take much in terms of more carries, targets or rushing touchdowns (perhaps limited by Kaep) to bump up Hyde from where we conservatively have him out of the gate.
A career high yards in 2013, following by career high in touchdowns in 2014 for Torrey Smith. Able to put them together with a new team? Nah. Projecting a 50% catch rate on just over 100 targets, modest TDs. Boldin a slight reduction off his 3-year average. Vernon Davis should start the season where he finished last season in many leagues, on the waiver wire.

Seattle Seahawks

Projecting an uptick in Russell Wilson’s passing stats while a decline in rushing from last season back to 2012 and 2013 norms. Still a sub-500 attempt, sub-4,000 yard passer.
Marshawn Lynch is 29 years old, and has a lot of mileage including eight playoff games the last three seasons. Projecting modest declines in his 3-year average numbers. Still great numbers but better to be conservative.
A decline from his days with the Saints, sure, but Jimmy Graham should still dominate targets on this team over the likes of Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse, et al. Why else pay a hefty price and bring him here? Projected for 9 TD.
Not expecting much from the wide receivers, each between 30-60 receptions.

St. Louis Rams

Nick Foles projected as the full season starter but clearly, not confident he will start 16 games. More the de facto starter, an indictment of the options behind him. A game manager role, 20 TD without too many costly turnovers are what the Rams will hope for; 60-65% probability they get that.
Todd Gurley is a great talent, but if the competitive window isn’t there for the Rams this year, why rush him into a heavy workload? Gurley tore his ACL in November, 2014. We are projecting a split in carries with Tre Mason. Gurley is an endgame pick. Assuming rehab goes well, he could be super the second half of the season. Jeff Fisher will commit to the run, and the strong defense supports this, but don’t overpay for Gurley on draft day. Mason might be an early season value.
Oi! These receivers are none too good. With a conservative passing game, none will get an opportunity to breakout if that is even still in them. Prefer Kenny Britt (entering 8th season) to Brian Quick (4th) if I had to choose one to take a shot on as my WR4 or WR5.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series