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MLB Opening Day Excitement, Sage Fantasy Baseball Advice for the Season Ahead

March 28, 2019 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

Dr. A. Bartlett Giamatti

Former MLB Commissioner Dr. A. Bartlett Giamatti (WikiPedia; New York Times)

“It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.” – A. Bartlett Giamatti

Opening Day Excitement

  • 2009 Indians – Coming off a 81-81 record with reigning AL Cy Young Winner, Cliff Lee, many were picking the Indians to come out of the AL Central.
  • 2010 Mariners – Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Junior Griffey and Ichiro. Everyone was predicting them to win the AL West.
  • 2011 Twins – coming off a 94 win season while winning the AL Central and getting Joe Nathan back, things were looking good for a run at the postseason.
  • 2012 Red Sox – coming off a historic collapse in 2011, Boston was favored to win the AL Pennant.
  • 2013 White Sox – coming off 85 wins and just missing the playoffs with Chris Sale and Jake Peavy many were picking them to contend in the AL Central.
  • 2014 Rangers – after winning 90+ games four seasons in a row, many were predicting Texas to be right in the thick of things.
  • 2015 Athletics – coming off an 88 win season and losing a heartbreaking 1-0 Wild Card game to the Royals, some were expecting them to be a factor in the AL West.
  • 2016 Diamondbacks – Adding Zack Greinke to a 79 win team had many predicting Arizona to make a move in the AL West.
  • 2017 Giants – coming off three straight season with 84+ wins and a rotation with Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija everyone was penciling them in for the playoffs.

All of the teams listed above* were expecting big things heading into the season. All of them finished with less than 70 wins. This goes to show you that Mr. Giamatti was right, baseball will break your heart. Many things will happen from now until the regular season ends on the last Sunday in September. I’m here to help you prepare with some fantasy baseball advice for the long road ahead.

* You are probably asking why there is no representative for 2018. There were eight teams with less than 70 wins last year (Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Rangers, Marlins, Reds and Padres). None of them were expected to be much better than they actually were.

Fantasy Baseball Advice

Roster Evaluation

When preparing for your fantasy baseball draft you evaluate players and what they are projected to do, at that particular point in time, for the upcoming season. Once the games begin, things will change. Injuries. Benchings. Trades. You get the picture. Loose screws fall out all the time; the world is an imperfect place. The roster you end up with in Autumn will not be the same one you drafted in the Spring.

I like to look over my roster daily and evaluate each of the starters by asking myself, “Is he a starter and is he a top starter?” What do I mean by that? A true starter in your fanasy baseball league should be one of the top N players at his position, where N is the number of teams in your league. For example, if you are in a 12 team league then your shortstop should be one of the top 12 shortstops. Otherwise you’re already in a hole.

For your corner, middle and utility slots you ultimately want to have players that are ranking as top N at their primary position. For example, if your corner infielder is evaluated as the 11th best 3B then you are taking that possible starter away from another team, making them weaker than yours.

A top starter is, not only top N but, in the top half. Using the same 12 team league again, in a perfect world you want a top 6 shortstop. In fact you want to be in the top half for all of your positions.

For outfield and pitching, where you start more than one typically, I tier them into SP1, SP2, SP3, etc. I then try and have a player in the top half of each tier, at a minimum. Ideally you would like to have your #2 SP evaluated as an SP1, or your #3 OF as an OF2. This gives you a nice advantage over many teams.

Turnover Your Bench

If you feel that all of your current starters are in the top half at their position then turn your attention to your bench. If you feel that you have a surplus of talent, look to make a trade with another team to shore up a spot where you feel you are weak.

My bench is typically fluid throughout the season. I’m constantly moving players in and out. I’m rostering latest callups to see if they produce. I’m rostering players that I evaluate as starters and should be rostered but are not currently. Again, this is weakening other teams, thereby making yours stronger.

Don’t fall into the trap that your roster is perfect the way it is… evaluate constantly.

When To Let Go

Early in the season, you must work to fix the mistakes you made in your draft. Trust me, you made some mistakes. Just don’t discover them too late.

Sometimes it is obvious like injury, benching or demotion when to drop a player. What about that underperformer that still gets playing time but just isn’t living up to his projections?

There is no hard or fast rule on when to “cut bait” on those guys. Your early draft picks you’re going to want to hang on to longer than your late round flyers. My general rule of thumb is to hand them their walking papers after X number of weeks; where X equals 24 minus the round the player was drafted. For example, you drafted an outfielder in the 17th round. Come week seven (24-17), I would look to replace him with someone better.

Trading

Theoretically, after your draft the players out on the wire are there for a reason. They were not “draft worthy.” That means that the best way to improve your team early in the season is with trades as you are hoping to obtain other “draft worthy” talent. Unfortunately, most owners are attached to the players they drafted and overestimate the worth of their players while underestimating the value of yours. As the season goes on and owners distance themselves from the draft they tend to more reasonably value their drafted players.

Later in the season I’ve found that most trades are for particular stats to help you move up in the standings. You might be low in stolen bases or steals but high in ERA and WHIP so you swap a pitcher for a closer or speed merchant. In keeper leagues, be on the lookout for the fire sale when an owner gives up on his team and tries to trade away all of his players for future assets.

My best trade advice is to always look at your offer from both sides. Ask yourself if the other owner would make the trade. How does it help them? The best trades are those that help both teams. Don’t offer three players that can be found on the wire for one stud player. Would you trade away one of your studs for three guys that you could find on the wire? Why would you expect anyone else to do it?

The Wire

Making a trade that benefits both teams can be hard to accomplish. More often than not you will be forced to improve your team via the waiver wire. Relying on the players you drafted isn’t enough.

Below is the analysis I did on two leagues from last season. I determined the percentage of total stats that came from drafted players vs. players found on the wire.

Both leagues are 12 team, standard 5×5 roto with 13 hitters using 1 catcher and 5 outfielders, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots (Razzball) or 4 bench spots (RotoBaller).

Hitting Razzball Drafted Razzball Wire RotoBaller Drafted RotoBall Wire Both Drafted Both Wire
At Bats 72% 28% 72% 28% 72% 28%
Runs 75% 25% 74% 26% 74% 26%
Home Runs 74% 26% 75% 25% 75% 25%
RBI 74% 26% 73% 27% 74% 26%
Steals 84% 16% 78% 22% 81% 19%
AVG .265 .252 .265 .250 .265 .251
Pitching Razzball Drafted Razzball Wire RotoBaller Drafted RotoBall Wire Both Drafted Both Wire
Innings 71% 29% 71% 29% 71% 29%
Wins 75% 25% 74% 26% 75% 25%
Saves 73% 27% 71% 29% 72% 28%
Strikeouts 73% 27% 72% 28% 73% 27%
ERA 3.49 4.29 3.55 4.15 3.52 4.22
WHIP 1.17 1.32 1.19 1.28 1.18 1.30

Now, the first thing you should’ve noticed (I did) was that the ratio stats are quite a bit better from the drafted players as they are from those found on the wire.

Where the wire can really help you is the counting stats. For all but stolen bases you can find anywhere from 25-29% of what you’ll need on the wire. What you can’t see here are the raw numbers, but let’s look at runs. In the Razzball league there were 11,257 runs counted and 2,861 came from the wire. The difference between 1st place in runs and last place was 439 runs. You can make up ground in those counting stats… at the expense of your ratios.

The hardest counting stat to find on the wire is stolen bases. There are some out there but you will have to be quick as they are a very desired commodity. In fact, stolen base attempts has been declining every year over the past five seasons.
Drafting your ratios and steals becomes all the more clearer with this analysis.

Conclusion

Constantly evaluate and look for opportunities to improve your team. It is exciting today is Opening Day! Don’t let that excitement dissuade you from the marathon ahead. If you don’t put in the time, then baseball, and your fantasy baseball team, will surely break your heart.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

MLB Opening Day — The Fantasy Baseball Marathon Begins

March 29, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

MLB Opening Day

There is nothing quite like Major League Baseball’s Opening Day. Chris gives us some key reminders to manage your fantasy baseball team through the long grind to a championship.

Opening Day. All you have to do is say the words and you feel the shutters thrown wide, the room air out, the light pour in. In baseball, no other day is so pure with possibility. No scores yet, no losses, no blame or disappointment. No hangover, at least until the game’s over.
Mary Schmich, Chicago Tribune

Opening Day is here, my friends. We’ve all drafted our squads and are prepared for battle. We’re all in first place and (fingers crossed) everyone is still healthy. Everything counts from here on out.

Our little hobby is simple. It is your job as the fantasy GM of your fantasy team to win a fantasy championship. Hopefully, you have put your team in the best position to succeed from your draft. But there is so much more, my friend. So much more. You must continue to make your team better each and every day.

When you draft you are evaluating the players and what they are going to do in the upcoming season at that particular point in time, but there are many things that can change. Injuries. Benchings. Trades. Dirt bike accidents. Tropical storms. You get the picture. Screws fall out all the time; the world is an imperfect place. You’re going to have to make changes to your roster.

Roster Evaluation

I like to go down my roster and evaluate each of the starters by asking myself, “Is he a Top N shortstop?” where N is the number of teams in the league (ESPN Player Rater comes in handy). At a minimum you should have “starter” quality at each position. For outfield and pitching, where you start more than one player typically, I tier them into OF1, OF2 or SP1, SP2, etc. My overall goal is to have players that “rank” in the top half at each position.

If you feel that all of your starters are in the top half at their position then look at your bench. Make some upgrades there. If you feel you have a surplus of talent. Look to make a trade with another team to shore up a spot where you feel you are weak.

Never fall into the trap that your roster is perfect the way it is… evaluate constantly.

When to Let Go

Early on in the season, you must work to fix the mistakes you made in the draft… and you will discover some mistakes. Just don’t discover them too late.

When do you “cut bait” on an underperformer? The guys you draft in earlier rounds you’re going to want to hang on to longer than guys you draft in the later rounds. My general rule of thumb is to cut’em loose after X number of weeks; where X equals 24 minus the round that the player was drafted. For example, if you drafted your middle infielder in the 18th round. Come week six (24-18) I’d look to replace him with someone better if he is underperforming.

Again, this is just a guideline. Obviously other factors like injuries, demotion or benching can come in to play.

Trading

Theoretically, after your draft the players out on the wire are there for a reason. They were not “draft worthy.” That means that the best way to improve your team early in the season is with trades as you are hoping to obtain other “draft worthy” talent. Unfortunately, most owners are attached to the players they drafted and overestimate the worth of their players while underestimating the value of yours. As the season goes on and owners distance themselves from the draft they tend to more reasonably value their drafted players.

Later in the season I’ve found that most trades are for stats. You might be low in stolen bases or steals but high in ERA and WHIP so you swap a pitcher for a closer or speed merchant. In keeper leagues, be on the lookout for the fire sale when an owner gives up on his team and tries to trade away all his players for future assets.

My best trade advice is to always look at your offer from both sides. Ask yourself if the other owner would make the trade. How does it help them? The best trades are those that help both teams. Don’t offer three players that can be found on the wire for one stud player. Would you trade away one of your studs for three guys that you could find on the wire? Why would you expect anyone else to do so, if you wouldn’t?

The Wire

Trading can be hard. More often than not, no deals are made. And when you can’t strike a deal with another owner you’ll go for a swim in the waiver wire pool. In fact, relying on your drafted players isn’t enough.

Batting Total Drafted Wire
AB 82,864 63,365 (76.5%) 19,499 (23.5%)
R 12,110 9,329 (77.0%) 2,781 (23.0%)
HR 3,517 2,718 (77.3%) 799 (22.7%)
RBI 11,692 9,027 (77.2%) 2,665 (22.8%)
SB 1,471 1,147 (78.0%) 324 (22.0%)
AVG .267 .268 .261
Pitching Total Drafted Wire
IP 13,995 9765.7 (69.8%) 4229.3 (30.2%)
W 922 645 (70.0%) 277 (30.0%)
SV 956 762 (79.7%) 194 (20.3%)
K 14,199 10242 (72.1%) 3957 (27.9%)
ERA 3.910 3.794 4.177
WHIP 1.251 1.223 1.314

Those are stats from one of my leagues last year, the same one in my Target Percentages article, 12-team 5×5 roto with 13 hitters using 1 catcher and 5 outfielders, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots.

Now, you can clearly see that the ratio stats from drafted players are better than from the wire, especially pitching. Where the wire can really help you is the counting stats. The difference between first and last place in RBI was 356… there were 2,665 RBI out on the wire! The difference between first and last in strikeouts was 593… there were 3,957 out on the wire. You can make up ground in the counting stats at the expense of your ratios.

Using this small sample size of one league it appears that the easiest stats to find on the wire were wins (30.0%) and strikeouts (27.9%). The hardest stats to find were saves (20.3%) and stolen bases (22.0%). Now, I know you are saying, “Chris, every league is different” and you’re right… but, every league drafts and allows for pickups. Jeff Zimmerman over at RotoGraphs came to similar conclusions when he analyzed the 2017 Tout Wars leagues.

Quick tip: If you haven’t drafted yet, use this information to focus slightly more on the ratios in your draft knowing that you can get counting stats on the wire (again, at the expense of your ratios).

Conclusion

The point of this article is that you have to constantly be looking to improve your fantasy team.

One year I was sitting in last place on June 1st with 46 lowly points (46.5 points out of first). For the final four months I worked the wire and made a few trades to get my team into second place (8.5 points out of first). So even if you fall into the deepest of holes, there is hope.

And Opening Day is all about hope. Play ball, indeed.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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