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Fantasy Football Draft Round 1 Considerations

July 25, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers

Our 2018 fantasy football rankings are up and here are fantasy football draft round 1 considerations. Pittsburgh Steelers Le’Veon Bell is certainly in the mix for top of the first, but with some concerns.

My initial 2018 fantasy football rankings were posted last week, with a couple caveats. This morning the rankings are updated for each of quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and kicker, plus top 125 overall rankings.

That is a good start, but not as helpful as with some commentary to show the thought process behind them. Why are certain players higher or lower than the consensus average draft position (ADP)? Lets start with the Top 12 which is essentially my fantasy football draft round 1.

Overall
Rank Name Pos ADP1
1 RB T. Gurley, LAR RB1 1.02
2 RB E. Elliott, DAL RB2 1.03
3 RB L. Bell, PIT RB3 1.03
4 WR A. Brown, PIT WR1 1.06
5 WR D. Hopkins, HOU WR2 1.09
6 WR O. Beckham Jr., NYG WR3 1.12
7 RB D. Johnson, ARI RB4 1.04
8 RB S. Barkley, NYG ® RB5 1.06
9 WR J. Jones, ATL WR4 2.03
10 RB K. Hunt, KC RB6 1.11
11 RB D. Cook, MIN RB7 1.12
12 RB L. Fournette, JAC RB8 1.08
13 RB A. Kamara, NO RB9 1.06
14 WR D. Adams, GB WR5 2.06
15 WR M. Thomas, NO WR6 2.04
16 WR A. Green, CIN WR7 2.08
17 TE R. Gronkowski, NE TE1 2.12
18 RB M. Gordon, LAC RB10 1.10
19 WR K. Allen, LAC WR8 2.07
20 RB D. Freeman, ATL RB11 2.04
21 RB C. McCaffrey, CAR RB12 2.12
22 WR D. Baldwin, SEA WR9 3.03
23 WR T. Hilton, IND WR10 3.10
24 QB A. Rodgers, GB QB1 3.02

1 Fantasy Football Calculator (12 team)

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 1-6

1. RB Todd Gurley, LAR

I have five players in my Tier 1 running backs, adding Saquon Barkley to that group this morning. We know based on history at least one, probably two and possibly more will disappoint the high expectations that come with the fortune of having a Top 4 (or Top 1 or Top 2 or Top 3 or Top 5, depending on the year) draft pick. For me, I tend to rank that top group not so much on floor, ceiling, talent, etc., although that all comes into play, but rather which player is the least likely to disappoint. That is the guy I want with my top pick. That player is Todd Gurley. There are fewer red flags with Gurley compared the each of the next four running backs, which is why he is generally considered the consensus number one overall pick this fantasy draft season.

2. RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL

Elliott has slightly more red flags than Gurley, but I would argue less than Le’Veon Bell, slotting him in the number two spot for me. The Dallas Cowboys are not expected to be a top offense this season given the ultra-thin receiving corps, although coupled with Dak Prescott they should be able to show enough to keep defenses somewhat honest. The offensive line is still a huge strength, and Elliott the best pure runner in the league with a team committed to giving him a heavy workload. Even a dishonest defense is going to get exhausted trying to tackle this guy in the second half of games.

3. RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

Bell is absolute money for fantasy owners finishing in the RB2-RB4 range since his sophomore season (points-per-game in 2015 due to playing in only 6 games). That is performance scoring, no points-per-reception (PPR), in which he creates even more distance from his peers averaging 80 catches the past two seasons. Too bad that hasn’t translated into a long-term deal from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Which leads us into yet another season in which Bell is skipping all of training camp. I respect his bet on himself mentality playing on the one-year franchise tag, but missed camp worries me he is more likely to get injured early in the season.

Also, “everyone” apparently hated now departed offensive coordinator Todd Haley. I’m sure Haley had a personality that rubbed Ben Roethlisberger and a whole bunch of people the wrong way but lets face facts – the guy knows offense and deserves a good deal of credit for the Steelers offensive juggernaut in recent seasons. Now Haley is gone and that worries me the potential negative impact on the whole offense of which Bell is the main beneficiary. Note these worries are not enough to push Bell far down the board, but based on risk, I am more comfortable with Gurley or Elliott than Bell.

4. WR Antonio Brown, PIT

Fantasy football drafts are back sliding into running back heavy affairs, and many will see the top five or six picks all take a RB before the first wide receiver is off the board. That is a mistake in leagues with three or more WR relative to two RB starters, and especially in PPR leagues.

No one would really bat an eyelash if Antonio Brown was drafted number one overall each of the past 4-5 seasons, and you know the guy who drafted him was certainly happy with the results. Wide receivers are safer picks than running backs. Antonio Brown is matchup proof. Taking Brown is a very positive use of draft capital.

The comments on Haley, above, don’t necessarily apply the same here. If the offense keeps chugging along as in the past, great, and great for Brown owners. If the offense stutters at all, the answer will be to throw to Brown. Brown is a worthy Top 4 pick and if you are skittish on any of the running backs, feel free to push him up to as high as number one on your board.

5. WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

It appears I am higher on Deshaun Watson than most people, as I see repeatedly how fantasy experts state Watson is greatly overvalued. Sure, there is hype based on a small sample from last season and he is returning from a major injury. These are very logical conclusions to avoid Watson where he is typically getting drafted. At what point however do we sit back and say, “the guy is just that good”?

I do not say this lightly, but I think there is something to the thought we are witnessing a generational talent at the quarterback position. Health reports on his rehab are very good, so my concern there is mitigated. To watch him set the league on fire this season, wait until this time next year and declare Watson is in the same tier as Aaron Rodgers, doesn’t show fantasy experts are willing to stick their neck out very far, so I will. He has the ability of finishing QB2+. If I can get Watson around QB4 or later, then I absolutely will draft him.

Oh, my bad, this is supposed to be about DeAndre Hopkins. He will be the primary beneficiary and contributor to Watson’s success. Hopkins is 26 years old and primed to make last season and his 2015 stat line the norm. Anyone else tired of hearing the word regression from fantasy football experts?

Lets call this for what it is. Hopkins is super-talented. He is on a very good team. He will be showered with targets. Again, wide receivers are safer than running backs, putting Nuk in my Top 5.

6. WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG

Similar in concept to my reasons for Le’Veon Bell ranking behind Gurley and Elliott, Odell Beckham Jr. is not less talented or less capable of finishing WR1 than Antonio Brown or DeAndre Hopkins. However, he is a more risky proposition to get there than the other two.

We sometimes forget in our fantasy football analysis that these players are not robots, they are people. And people – particularly professional football players – do stupid things. Brown and Hopkins have shown less evidence of doing stupid things that could impact their on-field performance than someone like, say, Beckham. Its a character thing.

What Beckham accomplished in his first three seasons in the NFL is absolutely ridiculous, and then he got injured last season. I have no trouble drafting Beckham (hey, we are only half way through the first round here), but I feel safer with the other two wideouts. Based on fantasy football drafts so far, with their RB-heavy focus, there is a good chance you end up with Beckham using these rankings but drafting as late as eighth to tenth overall.

Fantasy Football Draft Round 1, Picks 7-12

I am getting a little long with the commentary so time to shorten things up a bit. Anyone who emails me Draft Buddy tech support questions, or questions about their fantasy league, can usually expect a fairly detailed response. Maybe I need to do more fantasy football advice on Twitter to learn to give more concise answers.

7. RB David Johnson, ARI

David Johnson is squarely in the Tier 1 RB group by most rankings sets, often as high as RB2. The Arizona Cardinals are not expected to be very good though, am I right? For supporting cast we aren’t even positive if or how long Sam Bradford will start ahead of rookie QB Josh Rosen. They’ve got Larry Fitzgerald and … a whole lot of wishful thinking at receiver. Offensive guru coach Bruce Arians is gone. This team is rebuilding. Sure, a lot of volume for David Johnson and his talent puts him in the conversation but I don’t love the idea of using my first round pick on a RB for a team I expect is more likely to struggle than not. For the third time, wide receivers are safer.

8. RB Saquon Barkley, NYG

We have no NFL history with Barkley which will lead some to say hey, no way am I taking a rookie with my first round pick. I like to have an open mind and try to never say never. Maybe Barkley is the next great thing at RB. Enough smart people who did the necessary scouting and research are singing his praises, and we have come a long way scouting football talent since Ki-Jana Carter, or the 2005 NFL Draft with running backs picks 2nd, 4th and 5th overall (and each of those guys were decent for stretches). Sure, the New York Giants are, like the Cardinals, not a good team. Unlike the Cardinals, there is a decent offensive supporting cast in place to contribute to Barkley’s success.

9. WR Julio Jones, ATL

Not reporting to Atlanta Falcons training camp due to a contract dispute does not make me particularly enamored with Julio Jones right now, so this ranking may drop. The sides each seem pretty stuck in that no new contract will be forthcoming prior to this season. More touchdowns would also be nice. On the plus side, Jones is sliding into the second round. He’s going to play, he might have a chip on his shoulder and I’m sure Matt Ryan has no issue helping Jones pad his stats as much as possible. A 1,400 yard floor and potential for 100 catches, I do feel better with him on my squad than the next group of riskier running backs.

10. RB Kareem Hunt, KC

If you drafted Hunt late last year, congrats. He was one of the stories of the NFL and particularly fantasy football in 2017 as an unheralded prospect, flung into action due to an injury to incumbent Spencer Ware. Great offense (although first year starting quarterback) and projected high workload make Hunt the expected man again for 2018. He did fade through the middle of last season but does contribute in the passing game. This is neither an aggressively positive or overly negative outlook for Hunt.

11. RB Dalvin Cook, MIN

A player that really impressed me last season was Dalvin Cook. Knee injury in Week 4! Bah! What a disappointment. Knee injuries are not the same concern coming back from them as they used to be, especially when they are early in the season. We will want to keep close tabs on reports about Cook through training camp. Skill-wise and playing on a top defensive minded team, this is perhaps a bit high from consensus but a decent ranking for Cook and his upside. Really, the players ranked in this range and through the next six or so picks are all somewhat interchangeable. Pick the guy you like, and Cook is one I do like.

12. RB Leonard Fournette, JAC

Fournette is very similar to me as Cook. Talented running back, playing on a team with a strong defense, he should be in many games with what the daily fantasy guys call a positive game script. Fournette only played in 13 games last year, finished RB8, and more than 15 points better than RB9. In most leagues drafting end of the first round you will want a RB with one of your first two picks, and Fournette is a good foundation for your team.

Other Considerations

RB Alvin Kamara, NO

This will be the player most will say is mistakenly missing from my Top 12. No doubt Kamara was superb last season, but a player who excels that much in a timeshare is typically a player I will fade the following season when expectations thrust him into the first round.

WR Davante Adams, GB and WR Michael Thomas, NO

I absolutely love Davante Adams this year as the trending up and go-to guy for Aaron Rodgers. He can certainly return first round value. Michael Thomas is great too, and I am not writing off Drew Brees yet as some are. My late first round drafts will usually lean to a balanced approach, taking 1 RB and 1 WR, so drafting any combination of Hunt/Cook/Fournette/Kamara and Jones/Adams/Thomas/A.J. Green is an ideal start.

TE Rob Gronkowski, NE

Gronk is a difference maker. With Julian Edelman out to start the season, and Brandin Cooks and Dion Lewis gone from the New England Patriots, a healthy Gronk could be exceptional. Perhaps this is one of the few ways to get value from your late first round pick. In a league giving extra value to the TE position, I would give high consideration to Gronk. In other leagues I wouldn’t begrudge you taking him this high either.

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

Most fantasy experts will tell you absolutely do not draft Aaron Rodgers with your first round pick. I am not going to do that. That applies to most of their (the experts’) leagues. Lets not worry about their leagues and lets worry about your league. Your league you may very well provide a big advantage owning the consensus number one quarterback.

Without diving too deep into this subject, even if the format and scoring is the same as expert leagues, in more casual leagues QB tend to get drafted earlier, and top RB and WR are more likely to fall deeper in the draft. And it can be more difficult to trade in your local league. So, considering Rodgers is a difference maker at a position potentially valued very highly in your league, if that costs you a first round pick, so be it.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Pittsburgh Steelers Team Report

July 8, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown is crazy good. He should be considered the league's top fantasy wide receiver in PPR formats.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Antonio Brown is crazy good. He should be considered the league’s top fantasy wide receiver in PPR formats.

QB Ben Roethlisberger

After topping 4,000 passing yards just twice during the first nine years of his career, Roethlisberger has accomplished the feat in each of the last two seasons, posting a career high 4,952 passing yards in 2014 to go along with 32 touchdown passes (matching a career high). At 33 years of age, Big Ben is clearly in the prime of his career and with a solid supporting cast of skill position players, he should be in line for another big season in 2015. Having finished as the 8th ranked fantasy quarterback in 2013 and 5th last season, the question is whether he can repeat his 2014 performance. While it’s not always fair to remove a player’s best performances in making this type of decision, in this case it might be fair game. Of Roethlisberger’s 378.3 fantasy points from last year, 91.1 came in two games, meaning that he averaged 20.5 PPG in his other 14 games which ranked 15th amongst quarterbacks that played at least 10 games. Of course, if we simply assumed that Roethlisberger’s two best games averaged 35 PPG, then he would have been the 10th ranked quarterback on a PPG basis. Let’s call that his floor. Given his solid supporting cast, his comfort in Todd Haley’s offense and the not insignificant fact that running back Le’Veon Bell will miss the first three games of the season, we rate Roethlisberger as a mid-tier QB1.

RB Le’Veon Bell

After a successful rookie season that saw him accumulate 860 rushing yards and 408 receiving yards with eight touchdowns, Bell emerged as one of the league’s top running backs in 2014. Somewhat of a plodder in his rookie season when he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry, Bell averaged an impressive 4.7 yards per carry last season while chalking up 1,361 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. He also ranked amongst the league’s top receiving threats out of the backfield, catching 83 of his 105 targets (an outstanding 79.0% catch rate) for 854 yards and three touchdowns. With an upper tier quarterback running the show together with one of the league’s better offensive lines, Bell is set for another upper tier RB1 season in 2015. Of course, that won’t start until Week 4, courtesy of a three-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. If you are confident you can find a quality replacement in the later rounds of your draft to substitute for Bell during those weeks, then you should feel fine grabbing him with your 1st round pick.

RB DeAngelo Williams

The Panthers finally cut bait on Williams during the offseason, ending his nine-year run in Carolina. Signed to a mammoth contract based on a pair of 1,000 yard seasons in 2008 and 2009 (the only two of his career), Williams never returned to elite form as the injuries, the presence of Cam Newton and Jonathan Stewart, and the Panthers inability to consistently put together a solid offensive line kept him from reaching his potential. Having joined the Steelers in the offseason, Williams will back up Le’Veon Bell and start the first three games of the season with Bell suspended. Don’t expect him to approach Bell’s production. Williams’ yards per carry has declined in each of the last three seasons to just 3.5 last season when he played just six games due to injury. He is little more than a low level handcuff since we expect the Steelers to rely heavily on their passing attack when Bell is out of the lineup.

RB Josh Harris

Having done little to establish himself as a viable option in the event of Le’Veon Bell’s absence, Harris was presumably bypassed on the depth chart when the Steelers signed DeAngelo Williams in the offseason. Since the Steelers don’t view Harris as a potential handcuff to Bell, he has no fantasy value barring an injury to either Bell or Williams.

RB Dri Archer

The Steelers squandered a 3rd round pick in last year’s NFL Draft on the diminutive Archer. While they hoped that he could deliver some big plays, the 5’8″, 173 pound Kent State product amassed just 40 yards on 10 carries and 23 yards on seven receptions. Since the Steelers were seemingly at a loss with respect to how to get him the ball in space, he has no fantasy appeal despite possessing blazing speed (4.26 40 time).

WR Antonio Brown

After posting a career year in 2013 with 110 receptions for 1,499 yards and eight touchdowns, Brown was even better in 2014, once again setting career highs across the board with 181 targets, 129 receptions, 1,698 yards and 13 touchdowns. Even more impressive was his consistency as he posted seven or more fantasy points in all 16 games after doing so in 13 of 16 games in 2013. In 2015, we expect that Martavis Bryant’s emergence will eat into his target count slightly as well as his red zone opportunities. However, along with Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant, Brown rates as a Tier 1 fantasy wide receiver this season in standard scoring formats and quite likely should be considered the league’s top wide receiver in PPR formats.

WR Martavis Bryant

The Steelers selected Bryant in the 4th round of last year’s NFL Draft and the expectation was that he would spend the season buried on the depth chart behind Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton and Lance Moore. Considered somewhat of a raw product coming out of college, the 6’5″, 200 pound former Clemson Tiger used his size and speed (4.42 40 time) to earn a more significant role beginning in Week 7 when he went on a four game terror, catching 14 passes for 310 yards and six touchdowns. He finished the season with 26 receptions for 549 yards and eight touchdowns despite appearing in just 10 games and receiving more than five targets in just three of those contests. Given his ability as a deep threat as well as in the red zone, we expect Bryant to have an expanded role in the Steelers offense in 2015. He rates as a mid to upper tier WR3 with breakout potential.

WR Markus Wheaton

After opening the 2014 season in the starting lineup opposite Antonio Brown, Wheaton was eventually passed on the depth chart by rookie Martavis Bryant. After an impressive 97 yard performance to open the season, he managed just 549 yards in his final 15 games while scoring two touchdowns. At 5’11” and 182 pounds, Wheaton doesn’t possess Bryant’s impressive size and the Steelers have said that he will operate out of the slot in 2015. That limits his breakout potential but the truth is that we expect Brown and Bryant to eat up a large amount of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s targets this season with Wheaton likely to see fewer than 100 targets operating out of the slot. Another 650-700 yard season with between 2-4 touchdowns seems likely for Wheaton in 2015.

WR Sammie Coates

Taken in the 3rd round of this year’s draft, Coates joins a Steelers roster that features arguably the league’s top wide receiver in Antonio Brown as well as emerging youngsters Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton. While Coates boasts impressive speed and playmaking ability, the 6’2″, 201 pound Auburn product faces an uphill battle to earn significant playing time as a rookie. With Wheaton expected to operate out of the slot and Bryant coming off an impressive rookie campaign where he displayed solid potential as a deep threat, Coates’ will need to have an outstanding preseason to enter the season as anything more than a WR4. While he is waiver wire material in redraft formats, he is a mid-tier prospect in dynasty leagues.

TE Heath Miller

At 32 years of age (33 in October), there isn’t much that is appealing about Heath Miller. Although he racked up the 11th most targets amongst tight ends last season and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for the most yards of his career, Miller still managed to record just 761 yards with three touchdowns. For fantasy purposes, he needs to find the end zone more regularly to be worthy of TE1 status but he has just four touchdowns over the last two seasons. Going a little further back, he has three or fewer touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. Since we don’t expect his usage in the red zone to increase, he rates as a mid to lower tier TE2 with little upside.

Also see: Pittsburgh Steelers IDP Team Report | Cincinnati Bengals Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Pittsburgh Steelers IDP Team Report

July 8, 2015 By IDPManor Leave a Comment

These are not your father’s Pittsburgh Steelers. For years, the Steelers were known for their punishing ground game and stout defense. Now, the Steelers led the NFL in passing yards in 2014 and finished a moribund 18th in total defense. The times they are-a-changing.

Defensive Linemen

2015 also brought a change in coordinators. Long-time Pittsburgh defensive guru Dick LeBeau is in Tennessee now, replaced by Young Turk Keith Butler. Defensive end Cameron Heyward told Robert Klemko of the MMQB that he likes what he’s seen from Butler’s scheme so far.

“I would think our defense will be pretty similar,” Heyward says, “but there may be some conceptual changes, some more blitzes he wants to add. I think he wants to generate more turnovers and get more one-on-ones up front where we’re maximizing everyone’s talents and making sure everyone has a chance to get after the quarterback or get a turnover. We’re not going to have players holding blocks for others and staying in these double teams.”

That could mean a bump in IDP value for Heyward. The 26-year-old finished last year in DL3 territory in fantasy scoring, but a more aggressive role could be enough to bump Heyward into DL2 territory.

Linebackers

Over the past few seasons, the most reliable IDP option on the Pittsburgh defense has been veteran linebacker Lawrence Timmons, who paced the Steelers with 132 tackles a season ago. Timmons has topped 125 stops each of the past few seasons and has finished among the top 25 fantasy linebackers three years running, but Timmons also hasn’t cracked the top 15 over that span. The 29-year-old essentially is what he is – a solid, if unspectacular IDP LB2.

Much was expected of first-round draft pick Ryan Shazier entering his rookie season in 2014, but injuries derailed those expectations. However, Chris Wesseling of NFL.com believes that a breakout season could be in the cards for Shazier in 2015. “We fully expect Shazier to rack up more than 100 tackles and force a handful of turnovers if he stays out of the trainer’s room this season,” Wesseling said. “If he can reach those numbers without surrendering big plays to overpursuit, Pro Bowls will soon follow.”

If that’s the case, Shazier’s LB2 ADP in IDP drafts at MyFantasyLeague so far this year could be quite the bargain. Then again, if he struggles to stay on the field again he could be quite the bust. Risk/Reward all the way.

Defensive Backs

With long-time strong safety Troy Polamalu calling it a career, there’s an open competition this summer in Steelers camp to replace him. Jeff Hartman of SB Nation considers Shamarko Thomas the early leader to win the job.

“Thomas plays the run extremely well,” Hartman said “and has the tools to be a solid safety alongside Mitchell, and the team seems determined to give Thomas every opportunity to prove his worth throughout training camp and preseason. Thomas’ tackling, speed and overall talent level is above the veteran Will Allen, and should see him slated to start in Week 1 against the New England Patriots.”

That’s enough to make the third-year pro an interesting late-draft “lottery ticket” play for IDP owners who practice patience when drafting in the secondary.

The highest-scoring defensive back for the Steelers in 2014 was cornerback William Gay, who finished fourth at his position in fantasy points. Cornerbacks can be notoriously streaky, but after logging 69 tackles a year ago the 30-year-old is a viable weekly starter in CB-required formats.

Also see: Pittsburgh Steelers Team Report | Cincinnati Bengals IDP Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football IDP

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