DraftBuddy.com

Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football Draft Tools

  • Member Login
  • Register

     

  • Fantasy Football
  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats
  • Draft Buddy
  • Rankings
  • News
  • Stats

MLB Opening Day — The Fantasy Baseball Marathon Begins

March 29, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

MLB Opening Day

There is nothing quite like Major League Baseball’s Opening Day. Chris gives us some key reminders to manage your fantasy baseball team through the long grind to a championship.

Opening Day. All you have to do is say the words and you feel the shutters thrown wide, the room air out, the light pour in. In baseball, no other day is so pure with possibility. No scores yet, no losses, no blame or disappointment. No hangover, at least until the game’s over.
Mary Schmich, Chicago Tribune

Opening Day is here, my friends. We’ve all drafted our squads and are prepared for battle. We’re all in first place and (fingers crossed) everyone is still healthy. Everything counts from here on out.

Our little hobby is simple. It is your job as the fantasy GM of your fantasy team to win a fantasy championship. Hopefully, you have put your team in the best position to succeed from your draft. But there is so much more, my friend. So much more. You must continue to make your team better each and every day.

When you draft you are evaluating the players and what they are going to do in the upcoming season at that particular point in time, but there are many things that can change. Injuries. Benchings. Trades. Dirt bike accidents. Tropical storms. You get the picture. Screws fall out all the time; the world is an imperfect place. You’re going to have to make changes to your roster.

Roster Evaluation

I like to go down my roster and evaluate each of the starters by asking myself, “Is he a Top N shortstop?” where N is the number of teams in the league (ESPN Player Rater comes in handy). At a minimum you should have “starter” quality at each position. For outfield and pitching, where you start more than one player typically, I tier them into OF1, OF2 or SP1, SP2, etc. My overall goal is to have players that “rank” in the top half at each position.

If you feel that all of your starters are in the top half at their position then look at your bench. Make some upgrades there. If you feel you have a surplus of talent. Look to make a trade with another team to shore up a spot where you feel you are weak.

Never fall into the trap that your roster is perfect the way it is… evaluate constantly.

When to Let Go

Early on in the season, you must work to fix the mistakes you made in the draft… and you will discover some mistakes. Just don’t discover them too late.

When do you “cut bait” on an underperformer? The guys you draft in earlier rounds you’re going to want to hang on to longer than guys you draft in the later rounds. My general rule of thumb is to cut’em loose after X number of weeks; where X equals 24 minus the round that the player was drafted. For example, if you drafted your middle infielder in the 18th round. Come week six (24-18) I’d look to replace him with someone better if he is underperforming.

Again, this is just a guideline. Obviously other factors like injuries, demotion or benching can come in to play.

Trading

Theoretically, after your draft the players out on the wire are there for a reason. They were not “draft worthy.” That means that the best way to improve your team early in the season is with trades as you are hoping to obtain other “draft worthy” talent. Unfortunately, most owners are attached to the players they drafted and overestimate the worth of their players while underestimating the value of yours. As the season goes on and owners distance themselves from the draft they tend to more reasonably value their drafted players.

Later in the season I’ve found that most trades are for stats. You might be low in stolen bases or steals but high in ERA and WHIP so you swap a pitcher for a closer or speed merchant. In keeper leagues, be on the lookout for the fire sale when an owner gives up on his team and tries to trade away all his players for future assets.

My best trade advice is to always look at your offer from both sides. Ask yourself if the other owner would make the trade. How does it help them? The best trades are those that help both teams. Don’t offer three players that can be found on the wire for one stud player. Would you trade away one of your studs for three guys that you could find on the wire? Why would you expect anyone else to do so, if you wouldn’t?

The Wire

Trading can be hard. More often than not, no deals are made. And when you can’t strike a deal with another owner you’ll go for a swim in the waiver wire pool. In fact, relying on your drafted players isn’t enough.

Batting Total Drafted Wire
AB 82,864 63,365 (76.5%) 19,499 (23.5%)
R 12,110 9,329 (77.0%) 2,781 (23.0%)
HR 3,517 2,718 (77.3%) 799 (22.7%)
RBI 11,692 9,027 (77.2%) 2,665 (22.8%)
SB 1,471 1,147 (78.0%) 324 (22.0%)
AVG .267 .268 .261
Pitching Total Drafted Wire
IP 13,995 9765.7 (69.8%) 4229.3 (30.2%)
W 922 645 (70.0%) 277 (30.0%)
SV 956 762 (79.7%) 194 (20.3%)
K 14,199 10242 (72.1%) 3957 (27.9%)
ERA 3.910 3.794 4.177
WHIP 1.251 1.223 1.314

Those are stats from one of my leagues last year, the same one in my Target Percentages article, 12-team 5×5 roto with 13 hitters using 1 catcher and 5 outfielders, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots.

Now, you can clearly see that the ratio stats from drafted players are better than from the wire, especially pitching. Where the wire can really help you is the counting stats. The difference between first and last place in RBI was 356… there were 2,665 RBI out on the wire! The difference between first and last in strikeouts was 593… there were 3,957 out on the wire. You can make up ground in the counting stats at the expense of your ratios.

Using this small sample size of one league it appears that the easiest stats to find on the wire were wins (30.0%) and strikeouts (27.9%). The hardest stats to find were saves (20.3%) and stolen bases (22.0%). Now, I know you are saying, “Chris, every league is different” and you’re right… but, every league drafts and allows for pickups. Jeff Zimmerman over at RotoGraphs came to similar conclusions when he analyzed the 2017 Tout Wars leagues.

Quick tip: If you haven’t drafted yet, use this information to focus slightly more on the ratios in your draft knowing that you can get counting stats on the wire (again, at the expense of your ratios).

Conclusion

The point of this article is that you have to constantly be looking to improve your fantasy team.

One year I was sitting in last place on June 1st with 46 lowly points (46.5 points out of first). For the final four months I worked the wire and made a few trades to get my team into second place (8.5 points out of first). So even if you fall into the deepest of holes, there is hope.

And Opening Day is all about hope. Play ball, indeed.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Figuring Out Why My Draft Buddy Settings Result in Undervalued Hitters and Overvalued Pitchers

March 17, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

The tech support questions keep rolling in for the fantasy baseball version of Draft Buddy as we enter the final weekends before Major League Baseball’s regular season kicks off, and fantasy drafts are running rampant.

Q: I’m having a little trouble with the software. When I first download the program and review the projections and rankings, the first four or five players are hitters (which I agree with). Once I enter in my league settings and Compile Cheatsheets, the first five or six overall ranked players are pitchers.

My league settings are…

24 active players, 5 bench for total of 29 rounds
14 hitters (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, DH, DH, DH)
10 Pitchers (6 SP, 3 RP, 1 P)
3 keepers, cost a draft pick
Roto, mixed League
5 x 5 (Runs, BA, SB, HR, RBI, WHIP, ERA, W, S, K)

I leave all of the other settings as-is.

I’m trying to figure out why the rankings are changing so dramatically after I compile. I would expect Mike Trout to be the #1 ranked player on everyone’s draft board, followed by Stanton, Abreu, Cabrera in some order. After I compile the first three players are Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer.

Any insight would be great, really looking forward to using the software, you do a great job. ~ mgfarb

A: Thanks Matt! How many teams? Also I assume DH is really UT (any hitter) and not a true DH. Make sure you have it set to UT. Here are some thoughts from what you’ve sent me:

I’m surprised pitchers would be that high too. I’d still strongly prefer hitters first, but in terms of results, 6 starting pitchers is quite a bit relative to the other positions. I think due to position scarcity it might be pushing those pitchers up thinking you’ve got a lot of positions to fill.

Remember the results are pure numbers based. If we hit projections exactly, you probably are better off with pitchers. But, since they are more risky than hitters, and more unexpected pitchers emerge, that is why hitters get drafted higher.

That is why the hitters/pitchers cap allocation is split the way it is by default. What you could do is reduce the cap allocation to pitchers (increase hitters) even more, and that should shuffle more dollars to hitters overall, to get the cheatsheets more to your liking.

Follow-up reply: Thanks for the response, I changed the DH to UT and the projections and rankings look good now. Your point about position scaracity makes sense too. Appreciate the response and look forward to using the software.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy

Fantasy Baseball Players of Interest: Overvalued and Undervalued Pitchers

February 14, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

The great thing about fantasy baseball is everyone has an opinion. The culmination of those opinions at this time of year often boils down to player rankings and projections. If we all had the same expectations for players going into the season, it would sure make the draft and all the pre-draft prep a lot less interesting. Let’s all just Yahoo! auto-draft and be done with it.

Luckily, that isn’t the way it is, and why at DraftBuddy.com we have our very own set of detailed player projections, plus the Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy custom ranking and draft tools, loaded with those projections. Not that you can’t edit the projections or import other projections into the Compiler. You know, because you have your own opinion.

Right now we’re talking about the official DraftBuddy.com projections though, and why some players are projected higher or lower than consensus. Hey, everyone has an opinion, right? The important thing is the projector has his or her reasons for projecting these players a certain way.

That is what this article is about. Last time we identified and discussed some hitters of interest. Now let’s take a look at some pitchers who are projected outside the norm according to the majority of fantasy baseball players.

 
Did Josh Beckett really post a 5.78 ERA and only win six games in 2010? Yes he did. But don’t worry, he will be back. Injuries caused most of Beckett’s problems last year. He was largely ineffective down the stretch and his velocity was down a bit, leading one to wonder if he was completely healthy when he returned to the mound.

His peripherals suggest that it was more bad luck than bad pitching. Beckett is going in the twelfth round (14-team league) according to his Average Draft Position (ADP) at Mock Draft Central (MDC), so take advantage and grab him shortly before that. We all know how good this guy really is when healthy.

Jake Peavy is another pitcher who has battled injuries recently. Despite going to the American League and playing home games in one of the worst pitchers parks in baseball, Peavy is still a stud you can slot into your rotation and start with confidence most every week. Although he is still rehabbing from shoulder surgery that shut him down for the season last July, he is expected to return in the month of April if not Opening Day.

There’s no reason this guy should be going in the 23rd round at MDC, so grab him before someone else can reap those rewards. He’s not pitching at PetCo Park any longer, so the stats will take a bit of a hit as they did the first half of last season, but Peavy is definitely worth a mid-teen pick.

Daisuke Matsuzaka isn’t receiving the love he did in his first few seasons in the States. He was a much-ballyhooed Japanese hero who cost the Boston Red Sox $51 million just for the right to negotiate with him. Dice-K won 33 games in his first two seasons but hasn’t reached ten in either of the last two. What gives?

His peripherals are all over the place, but there doesn’t seem to be one thing that leads you to believe Dice-K has lost anything. His run support in the last few years has dropped off, leading to a worse record. Assuming the Red Sox’ offense can stay healthy this season, Matsuzaka should get plenty of runs to pick up a dozen or so wins again. Considering he is practically undrafted in many leagues (he isn’t in the top 350 of the latest ADP report), he should provide good ratios, strikeouts and wins. Consider him as an end-game flier, or an early season waiver wire add.

Brandon Webb was one of the most feared pitchers in baseball just a few years ago. He won at least 14 games for four straight seasons, culminating with 22 wins in 2008. But a shoulder injury derailed his 2009 and 2010 seasons and led to the Diamondbacks to show him the door. He signed in Texas, where the hot summer seems to make the ball jump out of the park. Webb does not have a history of giving up gopher balls though, so this shouldn’t be a problem. With a good offense backing him, Webb should be a great pickup well before his 21st round ADP.

Francisco Liriano is a player to be wary of. In his first two seasons with the Twins, he was dominant. His strikeout ratio was more than ten per game and his walk ratio was less than three. He missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 with an elbow injury and struggled for the next year and half with control. Though his strikeout ratio isn’t quite back to pre-injury level, the walks are down but overall, his dominance is also down. Is he back to a top starter level? Let someone else take that risk. Since he’s going in the sixth round at MDC, it would be smarter to go with a more sure thing.

Trevor Cahill had a great 2010. He went 18-8 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. But when we look a little closer, we see that he did it with a lot of smoke and mirrors. He had a completely unsustainable .236 BABIP and only strikes out 5.40 batters per nine innings. His walk rate was 2.88 per nine, but that is lower than his minor league levels, meaning he is unlikely to remain on that plane. He is still expected to have a solid season and 14 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA is projected, but I’d let someone else have him if he goes in the seventh round like his is doing on average at MDC.

Wandy Rodriguez is being drafted in the ninth round according to his ADP. Really? Why? No one knows. He is a nice pitcher for an abysmal team. He’ll probably pick up 185 strikeouts and put up an ERA around 3.33, but expecting double digit wins from him is asking a lot. The Astros offense is anemic and their bullpen is a powder keg waiting to blow. Picking up a guy on a solid team with a better chance at 15 wins is a better use of a draft pick needed to acquire Rodriguez.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

  • 1
  • 2
  • Next Page »
  • Fantasy Baseball
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Last Player Picked
    • Rankings
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats
  • Fantasy Football
    • Draft Buddy Software
    • Rankings
    • Projections
  •  
    • Articles
    • News
    • Stats

Copyright © 2020 Draft Buddy • Privacy Policy