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2011 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Rankings

March 16, 2011 By Bodhizefa 1 Comment

Last week we posted the Tiers of Starting Pitching, including rankings for the top 89 starting pitchers for fantasy baseball this season.

Lost in the 19,000 words of starting pitcher profiles, was the thought to summarize the pitcher rankings in a nice looking cheatsheet format. That is, until one of our readers suggested it to us. Great suggestion, and here it is presented below.

Note these rankings were compiled before recent news of Neftali Feliz more than likely moving to the Texas Rangers’ starting rotation, although there is a profile on Feliz as a projected starter (some time in the future) and speculative play in Part 4 of the Tiers.

[Editor’s Note: Rankings updated March 21st. They now go to 90 thanks to Neftali Feliz moving up from an unranked “speculative play” in the first edition Tiers of SP to 58th in the updating rankings.]

Rank Player Team
1 Felix Hernandez SEA
2 Roy Halladay PHI
3 Tim Lincecum SF
4 Clayton Kershaw LAD
5 Cliff Lee PHI
Tier 2
6 CC Sabathia NYY
7 Mat Latos SD
8 Justin Verlander DET
9 Jon Lester BOS
10 Josh Johnson FLA
11 Tommy Hanson ATL
12 Jered Weaver LAA
Tier 3
13 David Price TB
14 Ubaldo Jimenez COL
15 Chris Carpenter STL
16 Dan Haren LAA
17 Cole Hamels PHI
18 Francisco Liriano MIN
19 Yovani Gallardo MIL
20 Matt Cain SF
21 Daniel Hudson ARI
22 Wandy Rodriguez HOU
23 Max Scherzer DET
24 Roy Oswalt PHI
25 Chad Billingsley LAD
26 Shaun Marcum MIL
27 Madison Bumgarner SF
28 Colby Lewis TEX
29 Clay Buchholz BOS
30 Brett Anderson OAK
  
Rank Player Team
Tier 4
31 Hiroki Kuroda LAD
32 Jonathan Sanchez SF
33 Ryan Dempster CHC
34 C.J. Wilson TEX
35 Johnny Cueto CIN
36 Jaime Garcia STL
37 Ted Lilly LAD
38 Ricky Romero TOR
39 Gio Gonzalez OAK
40 John Danks CHW
41 Javier Vazquez FLA
42 Josh Beckett BOS
43 Ricky Nolasco FLA
44 Ian Kennedy ARI
45 John Lackey BOS
46 Gavin Floyd CHW
47 Brett Myers HOU
48 Brian Matusz BAL
49 Zack Greinke MIL
50 James Shields TB
51 Phil Hughes NYY
52 Jeremy Hellickson TB
  
Rank Player Team
Tier 5
53 Brandon Morrow TOR
54 Edinson Volquez CIN
55 Homer Bailey CIN
56 Jhoulys Chacin COL
57 Mike Minor ATL
58 Neftali Feliz TEX
59 Ervin Santana LAA
60 James McDonald PIT
61 Tim Hudson ATL
62 Scott Baker MIN
63 Edwin Jackson CHW
64 Kyle Drabek TOR
65 Matt Garza CHC
66 Randy Wolf MIL
67 Travis Wood CIN
68 Carlos Zambrano CHC
69 Brett Cecil TOR
70 Clayton Richard SD
71 Aaron Harang SD
72 Cory Luebke SD
73 Derek Holland TEX
74 Brad Penny DET
75 Bronson Arroyo CIN
76 Kevin Slowey MIN
77 Jon Niese NYM
78 Jair Jurrjens ATL
79 Jake Peavy CHW
80 Jorge de la Rosa COL
81 Bud Norris HOU
82 Anibal Sanchez FLA
83 Derek Lowe ATL
84 Joel Pineiro LAA
85 Jeff Niemann TB
86 Jordan Zimmermann WAS
87 Michael Pineda SEA
88 Mark Buehrle CWS
89 Randy Wells CHC
90 Wade Davis TB

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Tiers of Starting Pitching 2010

February 23, 2010 By Bodhizefa 4 Comments

[Editor’s Note: I’m very pleased to publish this guest post from Scott Rudicil, a.k.a. Bodhizefa from various message boards in the fantasy baseball community. One of Scott’s claims to fame is his annual Tiers of Starting Pitching dissertation. This is great stuff, which I can attest to first hand since it helped me acquire Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on the cheap last year. So enjoy his 2010 version, and I hope you didn’t have any other work to do today!]

Gentlemen (and ladies, if you’re out there… yes, that includes you, Doug),

It’s a pleasure to bring you my Tiers of Starting Pitching for 2010. What I find interesting after doing this for so long is that every year I realize just how much I don’t know about the vast world of pitchers. There are plenty of analysts out there who have a much more comprehensive database, better knowledge of statistics, scout contacts in the business, and better food than microwavable Hot Pockets to fuel their mission.

But by God, those jackasses charge a lot of money, so I like to help out where I can for the majority of the crowd who frequent message boards like RotoJunkie. If I happen to unearth a gem here or there through my work, awesome. And if I happen to be totally wrong about the guy, I’m sure it was Todd Zola’s fault (way to go, Todd).

In the years since I began this pet project, we’ve seen the advent of the amazing FanGraphs. If you aren’t a regular frequenter of their site, I encourage you to dig your heels in and get a learnin’. They’re providing some cutting edge statistics for everyone for the fantastic price of free.

And as per usual, many thanks to Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, ESPN, Mastersball, RotoJunkie, Gatorade, the cookies my sister made me the other day, and my friend Rio’s mom for all the help they’ve given me in the past few weeks in writing this thing.

I’d also like to thank Dusty Baker for fueling the fire in my belly to start this thing way back in the day due to his handling of certain pitchers that shall remained unnamed. Dusty Baker, you can die and go to hell. (No, I don’t hold grudges.)

Lastly, I’ve included the Average Draft Position (mixed League) in parentheses for each player and occasionally commented on them. I used this instead of FIP this year because it seems more relevant to what we’re all trying to find—value. So, without further adieu…


Tier 1—Timmah’s Tier

1. Tim Lincecum, SF (ADP: 12)—He is in a class all his own. Period. The End.


Tier 2—The Superstars

2. Roy Halladay, PHI (24)—One of the best pitchers in baseball moves to the NL (iNferior League), and he can’t even get top billing? Any conspiracy theorists out there wondering if MLB mandated that Toronto send him to the NL just so Lincecum wouldn’t win his 3rd Cy in a row and subsequently bust the arbitration system all straight to hell? Yeah, me neither.

3. Zack Greinke, KC (26)—He was amazing last year, but let’s take a moment to be realistic. He plays for the Royals, who apparently think Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist are an excellent middle infield. When did Bill Bavasi become chief advisor to Dayton Moore? Considering how interested Greinke is in sabermetric statistics, I’m surprised he hasn’t pulled a Billy Cole from “The Last Boy Scout”, drawing a Colt 1911 from under his cup and shooting Betancourt through his glove, exclaiming, “Now you’ve got a real excuse, asshole!”

4. Dan Haren, ARI (42)—I wrote last year that Haren may actually be a better pitcher than his counterpart in the rotation, Brandon Webb, despite Webb always getting more press. Well, that’s not a problem any more. My only beef with Haren is that he’s simply not as good in Head-to-Head leagues since he generally sees a decline in productivity in the second half.

5. C.C. Sabathia, NYY (28)—The best part about new Yankee Stadium’s homer happiness is that it doesn’t affect Sabathia nearly as much since he’s a southpaw. Without even knowing it, the Yankees lucked into probably the best starter for their ballpark in the entirety of baseball (okay, luck and spending $160 million may not be the best bedfellows, but still, it is an entertaining thought). Sabathia’s pretty amazing—three years of 255+ innings (including playoffs), and he’s still going. Side Note: Isn’t it interesting that in almost any other sport, having a figure like Sabathia’s would instantly preclude a bevy of articles questioning his stamina and work ethic, yet in baseball, being a big fatty is often seen as a positive? I love baseball.

6. Felix Hernandez, SEA (31)—Here’s the real issue with what was Felix’s supposed coming out party. I think a decent part of his awesomeness in ’09 can actually be attributed to the super duper defense in Seattle. And I think another part of the “breakout” had to do with Felix getting lucky against left-handers with homeruns. Do I think Felix actually learned how to pitch instead of just throwing really hard? Yes, I do. So it’s the combination of the defense plus Felix’s awareness of how to pitch with that type of defense behind him that makes me recommend him highly this year. But I have my doubts as to whether he’s a full-blown, legitimate every-year-with-a-shot-of-an-under-3.00 ERA type of pitcher yet. Thus, he’s the lowest ranked of the 2nd Tier. The good news? He’ll be 24 this season, and every single year I’ve watched him he’s learned something new and has improved his game. Is the learning curve done? I’m betting no.


Tier 3—The Studs

7. Cliff Lee, SEA (54)—Lee moves to a team that arguably has the best defense in baseball and is in a park that hinders right-handed power almost to an extreme. Any regression that Lee sees in HR/FB should be easily balanced out by an outperformance of FIP due to defense and the park’s natural suppression of RH power. Also, I think he’s a bit more dependable peripherally than the next few guys (not by much, but he’s shown the most stability of this tier in my opinion).

8. Johan Santana, NYM (45)—His peripherals have gone down steadily over the years, and as much as I love him from a personal standpoint, Santana has a low probability of ever becoming vintage Santana again. So what does that leave us with? A very good pitcher who should decline slowly but steadily each year for a while. I’ll take that. Gladly, in fact. But don’t be the guy who’s trying to relive 2005 over and over and over, okay?

9. Justin Verlander, DET (47)—Was he one of the best pitchers in baseball last year? Absolutely. Am I worried that his velocity spike is unsustainable? Absolutely. And to me, that’s the biggest reason for his awesomeness. His contact % went from a career rate of over 80% to a much more star-like 76%. It will also be interesting to see how two new youngsters play defense behind him (A.Jackson and S.Sizemore) as both of them are replacing above average defenders at their respective positions. Jackson in particular should be of interest to Verlander fans given his high flyball %. He’s a possible Tier 2 guy for sure, but I think there’s enough risk involved (i.e. probable regression) to where we have to knock him down slightly. A good argument could even be made that he’s better than Felix Hernandez. However, the defense and the ballpark behind him are not better than Seattle’s, and that has significance in this whole projection thing.

10. Jon Lester, BOS (59)—Look, I was dead wrong about him. How in the hell could anyone have guessed that Lester was going to see yet another spike in velocity? He was quite awesome last year, and the defense behind him is stellar in 2010. So why isn’t he a Tier 2? Much like Verlander, I’m worried that velo spike isn’t sustainable (Ervin Santana 2008 vs. 2009 comes to mind as an example). And with a bit of a drop in velo comes a drop in strikeouts and overall effectiveness. Your mileage may vary, but I can’t see ranking him above anyone on this list, especially given his divisional competition.

11. Chris Carpenter, STL (73… no, this is not his age)—He’s older than when he was a fantasy horse in the mid-2000’s, and I think it’s probable that he won’t pitch 230+ innings. Still, he’s one of the smartest pitchers in the game right now, and he’s still got the toolset to use those smarts to their fullest.

12. Josh Johnson, FLA (66)—Another guy with a velo spike, but to me, his seems a tad more sustainable. Still regress his numbers a bit, but this is the talent level he flashed in 2006 before he got hurt. I find it baffling, though, that Florida pushed him to 209 innings after a season in which he only notched barely above 100, though. Does this organization never learn from their mistakes on handling young arms? Thusly, he comes with risk, but he may be the most affordable player in this tier given the lack of press he generally receives.

13. Josh Beckett, BOS (78)—Have I mentioned yet how awesome the Red Sox defense is this year? Beltre at 3rd + Cameron in Center + Ellsbury in Left = very good for Josh Beckett.

14. Cole Hamels, PHI (102)—I’m sure most of you have read where his peripherals were almost exactly the same last year as in years prior. They would be right. Hamels’ FIP’s the last 3 years? 3.83, 3.72, and 3.72. His BABIP will regress this year, and he should be fine again. Still, after being pretty lucky in ’07 and ’08, I’d look for more of a mid-3’s ERA and 1.20ish WHIP than the lower luck-driven numbers in years past.

15. Adam Wainwright, STL (56)—Wainwright is more luck than skill, and I am aghast that he gets as much press as he does. He’s not an ace, but he constantly gets billed as one. His strikeout rate last year increased dramatically despite his contact % barely going up a percentage point. Expect that to regress to the low to mid 7’s. I anticipate an ERA closer to the mid to upper 3’s than anything in the 2’s this year.

16. Ricky Nolasco, FLA (106)—What a weird weird year for him last year. He had an almost disastrously flukey ERA while almost all his peripherals were even better than his breakout season. I’m willing to bet he’ll be on almost all my teams this year as you can net him later in the draft while stocking up on one extra solid hitter versus the rest of the guys in this tier.

17. Clayton Kershaw, LAD (96)—This guy is a bulldog. I love his charisma and attitude and demeanor on the mound. Even when he doesn’t have his control, he’s still fighting through it, trying to make adjustments. He’ll definitely give up more homers this year, but he’s got one of the best young lefty arms in baseball.


Tier 4—The Really Good Pitchers

Guys that are either injury risks or are technically #2 starters, but their teams probably call them an “ace”

18. Matt Cain, SF (92)—One of those guys who always manages to outproduce his peripherals in some way, shape or form. There are names for people like that in sabermetrics. They’re called assholes. So here’s to you, Matt Cain. You’re one heck of an asshole.

19. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU (116)—He’s good, though I was really surprised when I was going over his bio and realized he was 31 years old. Also… “Magic Wandy”? That’s the best his fans could come up with? Seriously? Let’s just move on.

20. John Lackey, BOS (118)—I love that Red Sox fans are fine with owning Lackey because “he’s fine as a #3 starter.” Red Sox fans, you can go to hell. And say hey to Dusty for me while you’re down there, too.

21. Yovani Gallardo, MIL (87)—2009’s version of Gallardo is why we play the game on the field and not on a spreadsheet (or on MLB ’09 The Show, where Gallardo pitched three no-hitters for me). That he had a pretty sizeable control problem in ’09 went beyond head-scratching to a bit of a shocker for me. And then I went back and realized it was his first full season in the big leagues despite my notion that he had been around for a few years now. In any case, his stuff looked quite good last year, but he had a lot of rust to iron out. I think the kid gloves come off for Gallardo this year, and he moves towards becoming one of the better pitchers nobody knows about.

22. Jake Peavy, CWS (84)—April 5th: The day Jake Peavy realizes he’s not in Petco anymore. April 30th: The day Kenny Williams realizes how much of an impact Petco had on Peavy’s success. Look, I like Jake Peavy. I do. And I don’t mind Kenny Williams so much anymore. And Williams didn’t give up much in the way of talent to acquire Peavy. But what he did give up was a lot of money to a guy with a growing injury list and peripherals that were masked by the Michael Myers of all baseball masks—Petco Park. Peavy’s an interesting experiment, but on a team that thinks Carlos Quentin is a better option in right field than Andruw Jones, I’m probably not risking my fantasy season on Peavy being too awfully good. He is the very definition of high risk/high reward in 2010, so if you’ve already fallen behind by the time Peavy’s name pops up on your draft radar, well, may luck be your lady tonight.

23. Brandon Webb, ARI (123)—A bonafide ace when healthy, Webb is a pleasure to watch when on. His sinker baffles people to ground out weakly time and time again, and his curveball and change-up are both above average offerings at this point. Your guess is as good as mine as to whether he’ll be healthy in 2010, but he’s probably worth taking a risk on. I rank him right behind Peavy because Peavy’s already shown us he’s back (in some capacity). We’ll still waiting for Webb to do that.

24. Tommy Hanson, ATL (80)—Sexy. And probably worth the risk, too. Usually I worry about innings being a problem, but he threw close to 190 IP last year in total. Yeah, just go ahead and splurge.

25. James Shields, TB (128)—Generally the best of the guys who have good control but not as much stuff, Shields had a bevy of bad luck last year in the BABIP department. As per usual, and with such a solid defense behind him, we should expect a regression towards the good. His peripherals remind me a little of Cole Hamels as he was lucky a couple years in a row, maybe got a little overrated going into 2009, and then was unlucky in a big way. I’m buying.

26. Chad Billingsley, LAD (121)—So he had a setback. So did Sylvester Stallone, and what helped him through it? Steroids! In all actuality, Bills’ peripherals stood fairly strong in 2010, but he didn’t continue his improvement in the control department. That’s going to be the difference between him being a good pitcher and a great one. I’m here to tell you I have no clue if he can do it. How’s that for “expert advice”?! He’s one of those guys that, if you need a burst of upside, you should roll the dice on him. Otherwise, there are other, fatter, and seemingly better pitchers that I would recommend.

27. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL (103)—Do I really have a Rockies pitcher this high? And did I specifically save his ranking for when I was drinking? Yes and yes, thank you. Jimenez is a fascinating pitcher, and not just because he’s the hardest throwing starter in baseball either. He was a bit of a walking contradiction last year. His HR/FB ratios and BABIP were low despite being in Coors. The BABIP can partially be explained by the good infield defense (that almost makes up for the fact that the outfield defense on the Rockies is pretty crappy right now). But can Jimenez keep that HR rate down? And can he keep up his improvement in control? I still get the feeling that he’s not really sure where his pitches are going, and I think it’s 50/50 as to whether he regresses as opposed to improves there. Control takes an awful lot of work, and you just never know which pitchers are going to put in that time. For now, I like those strikeouts but would probably expect regression in all other categories for Jimenez.


Tier 5—Solid Gents

Guys who maybe shouldn’t be at the top of your fantasy rotation, but are still good!

28. Jair Jurrjens, ATL (136)—This is precisely the type of player you allow your dumbo casual leaguemates to draft and think they got a young “ace.” While Jurrjens is pretty good, his peripherals last year supported an ERA more akin to mid or high 3’s than the ridiculous 2.60 he put up. Not to mention the fact that the Braves’ defense was in the lower half of baseball last year and doesn’t project to be much better this season. Basically, I look at Jurrjens as a guy who’s probably mostly topped out and doesn’t have much upward projection at this point. Add that to the regression of his ERA toward a more FIP-happy 3.60ish range, and Jurrjens is a quality pitcher. But he’s no ace. UPDATE: His shoulder woes early on in camp allow me to drop him a couple spots without feeling too bad about myself.

29. Brett Anderson, OAK (161)—How much do I love Brett Anderson? Let me count the ways: 1) lefty, 2) sexy control, 3) I LOVE FATTIES! Seriously, though, there are enough questions about Anderson’s, um, interesting mid-season velo spike to warrant a bit of caution. He went from a cupcake on the mound to a dominatrix. Hell, he went from tossing 14 K’s and 8 BB’s in 23 innings in April to 3 walks in September against 26 strikeouts in the same number of innings. THREE WALKS! That’s almost as awesome as how chubby this kid’s chin is. Almost. No wonder all the scouts liked Cahill better—you can see his jawline, for christ’s sake.

30. Javier Vazquez, NYY (61)—I cannot stress enough what a negative difference it is for a good pitcher to go from the NL to the AL. Couple that with Vazquez moving from a pitcher’s park to a homerun haven, and I again see Vaz as having a tough go in the AL East. Vazquez’ lowest ERA in the AL in his career is 3.74. His average ERA in the AL in his four years spent there is 4.52. His average K/9 is 8.14. I’m not saying he’s going to be absolutely awful, but I don’t see this going well for his owners if they’re expecting anything close to ’09 levels of performance. Unless I get him for a major discount, Vazquez is on my no-fly zone for this season. (On ADP: There are an awful lot of people who are going to get badly burned this year.)

31. Jered Weaver, LAA (134)—Extreme flyball pitcher who now has a defense behind him of Abreu, an aging Hunter, and Juan Rivera with Matsui saying he wants to play the field some? I hope Weaver has a medicinal marijuana prescription to deal with the job-related stress there. Sheesh.

32. Ryan Dempster, CHC (165)—I had no idea he’d ever turn out to be good. It’s funny what time and hard work can do for a guy. I guess even the Cubs can’t screw everything up.

33. Roy Oswalt, HOU (158)—He’s no longer a fantasy ace, but Oswalt ain’t chopped liver either (and come to think of it, chopped liver really isn’t bad if it’s fried, so I’m not really sure what I’m trying to say other than Roy Oswalt is a fine pitcher. Why does chopped liver get such a bad rap anyway?) In fact, Oswalt is the perfect target because he’s unsexy these days as his luster has worn off and all he does is go out there and pitch well.

34. Matt Garza, TB (124)—Maybe there’s a reason scouts said he was more of a #2 guy than a #1. Despite his stellar minor league stat record, Garza looks like he’s going to top out as a #2 or #3 starter. He’s still got some upside, especially control-wise, so let’s give him another season before we go labeling him this or that (look, I’m as guilty as the next guy, okay?!) His peripherals don’t look steady enough for me to prescribe a massive breakout, though.

35. Randy Wolf, MIL (176)—I’ve loved Wolf since his days with the Phillies, and I still love Randy Wolf (I think it’s the red facial hair). The Brewers’ stadium isn’t that egregiously different from the Dodgers, and their outfield defense has a chance to be a bit better than the Dodgers’ of ’09 depending entirely on Carlos Gomez. Still, even though Wolf is a flyball pitcher, the Brewers’ infield ‘D’ is somewhat questionable compared to L.A. With a regression to his ERA, I’d anticipate a number closer to 4.00 and a WHIP closer to 1.30. But the strikeouts should still be there. And the Wins. Gosh, Wolf is just a quality pitcher to own. Red facial hair men of the world unite!

36. Scott Baker, MIN (155)—I’d be interested if anyone in the Twins’ organization would admit to having a carbonite mold and assembly line where they make their pitchers to all be the same flyball, control, moderate strikeout type of pitcher that we’ve all come to know and love. No wonder Liriano keeps getting hurt. They tried to fit him in the carbonite mold, and it broke his arm! As with all of these types of pitchers, I like Baker. His ilk really helps in WHIP, moderately helps in K’s, and rarely hurts in ERA. It’s the perfect complement to a pitcher who might have a control problem.

37. John Danks, CWS (164)—A move to almost any other stadium would do the flyball pitcher wonders, but even in Chicago’s south side, he’s still a quality fantasy pitcher to own. I don’t think we’ve seen the best of Danks yet, too.

38. Neftali Feliz, TEX (169)—I loved him last year, and I love him this year. He is dynamite. That said, I think there’s a chance we’re going a little too cuckoo for the Feliz Puffs right now. Fangraphs currently shows a fan projected ERA of 3.45, 129 K’s in 119 IP, and a 3.19 K/BB. I’m as optimistic as the next guy… well, actually, it appears that I’m not. I think those numbers are something like Feliz’ 99.9th percentile (to put this in BP speak) and are pretty far-fetched. I think he’s going to be a very special pitcher someday soon, but he’s got some very probable regression in K/9, BB/9, HR/FB, and BABIP coming his way in 2010. I’d be very happy with his numbers if he threw 150 IP with 135 K’s, a WHIP in the high 1.20’s and an ERA in the high 3’s. I think that would be something to get very excited about, actually.

39. Ted Lilly, CHC (154)—A perennial fave of mine, it pains me to look at the outfield defense the Cubbies have behind him. He’s also a bit of an injury risk coming after coming off of arthroscopic labrum surgery (he’s not expected to be ready by the beginning of the season). Yes, he was lucky last year. But the improved control over the last few years is real and sustainable to a degree. Don’t pass him up if he’s cheap enough. I don’t think he’ll disappoint. (UPDATE: Injuries will cost him some spots.)

Continue to Part 2   Continue to Part 3

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Tiers of Starting Pitching 2010 Part 2

February 23, 2010 By Bodhizefa 1 Comment

Tier 6—Steady Eddie’s

40. Rich Harden, TEX (200)—Dear Rich, brilliant move for you to raise your market value for next year by going to a pitcher’s park like Arlington. Sincerely, Seattle Fan :p (Yes, Harden could be one of the very best pitchers in baseball at any given moment. It should be super interesting to see who throws more innings and K’s this year—Harden or Feliz).

41. Mark Buehrle, CWS (232)—Steady. You generally know what you’ll get from him sans ERA, which is totally defensive dependent for a guy like Buehrle. He’s not sexy at all, but you could do a lot worse.

42. Tim Hudson, ATL (199)—It’s interesting that both he and Derek Lowe are on the same team considering how similar they are at this point in style of attack. Much like with my account of Lowe, I have to downgrade Hudson a bit due to Atlanta’s poor infield defense. I think his FIP will probably be good, but his ERA might be in the low 4’s with a WHIP in the mid 1.3’s or possibly even higher. The big problem with having a crappy infield defense for a groundball hurler is that there are tons of singles given up. This drives up the BABIP and it also drives up the WHIP. Not good news for fantasy owners.

43. Aaron Harang, CIN (288)—I’m buying. He’s still got very solid peripherals, and if he could ever get out of homer haven Cincinnati, he’d be a fun pitcher all-around. If the Reds manage to deal him, bump him up a notch. If they don’t, just enjoy his K’s and WHIP and be annoyed by his inflated ERA.

44. Gavin Floyd, CWS (178)—I don’t care what you say, Gavin Floyd is a sham. Wait? What? He was good last year? Seriously? I am so bad at this pitcher projection thing, Jesus. I quit. (By the way, his curveball last year was pretty ridiculous. It’s crazy it took him five years to figure out how to throw it in the big leagues like all the scouts said he could so many years ago in the minors.)

45. A.J. Burnett, NYY (129)—Many overlooked him after his awful April last year, but Burnett actually improved after his initial break-in period at new Yankee Stadium. Surprisingly, his home splits were much better than his road splits. Still, he’s always had trouble with walks, and he’s unlikely to do anything other than hurt you in WHIP. So if the strikeouts are really worth it to the make-up of your team, he’s not a horrible risk, and he’ll net you some Wins. But I don’t like the Yanks’ defense and I don’t like that park for right-handers.

46. Max Scherzer, DET (145)—So Arizona didn’t think he could last as a starter, huh. We shall see. His peripherals were tasty last year, and despite going to the AL, he should still be pretty good. I think his BABIP takes a big dive this year with the Tigers’ good infield defense behind him. Generally, this is the type of pitcher I would not want to bet against.

47. Francisco Liriano, MIN (217)—How much do you trust the Dominican League? Because if you trust their radar guns and the competition level, Liriano looked like he was up to his vintage tricks in January. I think it gets talked about less than it should, so I’ll bring it up for the third year in a row—Tommy John surgery isn’t always successful. Still, it would be a fantastic story if this guy could somehow navigate his career back to being one of the best pitchers in baseball. Also, it shows just how amazing he was in 2006 that we’re all still ranking him based on almost that alone.

48. Hiroki Kuroda, LAD (255)—Yes, have some. He may be an innings risk, but I think he’s above average in all categories (even K’s) when he’s on the mound.

49. Edwin Jackson, ARI (166)—I like him in the NL. It’s weird, this whole backlash that gets attached to a player who is obviously over-performing. Jackson was in over his head ERA-wise, but he still had some solid peripherals till he tired down the stretch. I like his chances in the much weaker NL. If he slips because of the overrated backlash, snag him up.

50. Scott Kazmir, LAA (174)—I’m not sure I see a return to his glory days, but a low 4’s ERA with good strikeout numbers and a not horrible WHIP is within his grasp. Still, I don’t like that Angel outfield, and Kaz is a pretty big flyball guy nowadays. Just be careful you don’t overbid.

51. Kevin Slowey, MIN (211)—Scott Baker v2.0. Or maybe version 0.9. Do the Twins have a factory for these guys or what?

52. Ben Sheets, OAK (222)—I think Sheets is more talented than some of the other guys in this Tier, but you know the deal with him—he’s injury prone. I think he’s an interesting gamble for the A’s, though, and I like him this year.

53. Carlos Zambrano, CHC (167)—He looked awful at the end of the year with his fastball having zero zip and Zambrano looking like he didn’t really care. I hope he can get back to being the greatly overrated yet still useful pitcher he’s always been, but we’ll see. I don’t anticipate much better than 4.0 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.

54. David Price, TB (171)—Price is disappointing on two fronts—both control as well as strikeout ability. If just one or the other were not so great, I’d be more apt to be excited about him. But when both of those categories are struggling, it’s hard to give a heavy endorsement on a guy. Do I like Price’s stuff? Sure. Would I look for improvement in one of the two categories in 2010 (probably strikeout rate)? Absolutely. But do I think Price can put it all together this year? Not really. The odds of him harnessing both of those cats is pretty low, and he’s also got the innings pitched problem to consider (he’s unlikely to go over 180).

55. Joe Blanton, PHI (275)—Let me get this straight. The Phils could have kept Cliff Lee for this season and dealt Blanton, but they dealt Lee and signed Blanton to an extension? I think Cupcake v1.0 is as good a 3rd/4th starter as any in baseball, but really? Really?! Anyway, rant over. So Blanton’s not a bad pitcher at all. He won’t really hurt you in any category in all likelihood, and if he can keep his strikeout rate up above 7, that’d be pretty swell. But I don’t expect him to do that. I’d calculate numbers like 4ish ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, and 145 K’s and be happy with it. (On ADP: Not too many believers around the drafting world, so I think there’s real value to be found here.)


Tier 7—The Best of the Rest

Guys who are probable to earn positive value

56. Andy Pettitte, NYY (201)—He who crawled through a river of roid-smelling foulness and came out clean on the other side. But you’ll always be ugly, Andy. Always.

57. Jeff Niemann, TB (212)—It was nice to see him succeed at the big league level after watching him pitch for a couple years in Durham. Still, he’s due for some regression as he was really lucky in terms of homers given up last year. I think he can improve a little in the strikeout department, but it won’t offset the likely uptick in homers coming his way. In other words, don’t expect quite as good of a sophomore season.

58. Derek Lowe, ATL (303)—You can probably bank on a near 4ish ERA, but the Braves don’t have a good infield defense, and that’s kindof a death knell for the likes of the groundball dominant Lowe. There’s some upside here to last year’s disaster, but he’s getting old and I’m not sure Frank Wren is smart enough to know how to surround a guy like Lowe. I am intrigued to see who wears out the infield defense first—Lowe or Hudson.

59. Ervin Santana, LAA (227)—The best example of why you can’t be too sure that a velocity spike will be sustainable from one year to the next. I like him for strikeouts, but I think anyone expecting a return to 2008 levels will probably be disappointed.

60. Jorge de la Rosa, COL (183)—Jesus Hairy Christ, when did the Rockies get so many interesting pitchers?! Why are they making me go against my No Coor’s Never rule? It was such a simple rule, and I do like my simple pleasures. De la Rosa is almost the pitching equivalent of a slugger who hits .240. Sure, you want the HR’s/K’s, but can you handle the sink in AVG/WHIP?

61. Joba Chamberlain, NYY (195)—Who knows. Can he up the velo now that he’s used to the rotation? Or will the Yankees just jerk him around at this point? Your guess is as good as mine (and maybe better). In my opinion, I believe he’s probably better suited to start than Hughes at this point. So if you have to pick between them on draft day, I’d probably lean towards Joba.

62. Jonathan Sanchez, SF (225)—He’s shown sustained skills for a few years now, so even if he doesn’t have the big breakout, he’s a useful pitcher in almost any format just for those K’s and 4ish ERA. But if he can figure things out for a full year like he did for most of the last two months of ’09… you’re gonna see some serious sh*t.

63. Johnny Cueto, CIN (218)—Cueto simply wasn’t the same pitcher in ’09 as he was in his rookie campaign. His fastball wasn’t quite as electric. His slider didn’t quite bite as hard. And upon notice of Satan to Pitchers in the dugout, I have concerns about Cueto’s frame and durability (and his hopefully Baker-proof insurance plan including mental health coverage, too). A part of me can already see Baker’s influence, and I want to run away. But a part of me remembers the arm I saw in 2009, and I just can’t let it go. Buy at your own Baker-risk threshold.

64. Stephen Strasburg, WAS (260)—If there’s one pitcher you want to pay top dollar for, it’s Tim Lincecum. Not Stephen Strasburg. But I can’t wait to see him pitch, and based on all the scouting reports, he’s going to be very very good. I’m just not sure you want a guy like this in Year 1 when you’re going to have to overpay from the get-go despite having no clue when he’ll be up or what exactly he will offer this year.

65. Clay Buchholz, BOS (192)—Upside in almost every peripheral category and one of the best defenses in baseball behind him… hrm, let’s just say I’d go the extra buck on Buchholz. I’m still a big believer. Even if he doesn’t become an ace, he’s still got very solid #2/#3 starter potential.

66. Wade Davis, TB (290)—Yes, he’s good. Yes, I’m surprised. I missed him every time I went to Durham to see the Bulls play, and I wasn’t very impressed with his minors stats. So when I finally got to watch him in Tampa, he definitely shocked me a bit.

67. Kyle Lohse, STL (ND)—Another low upside but low risk guy. He and Guthrie have a lot of similarities in what they bring to the table. If that’s the type of pitcher your roster needs near the end, don’t hesitate.

68. Phil Hughes, NYY (307)—It’s amazing how sexy awesome a pitcher can look in a bullpen role. And then we all expect them to be nearly the same as a starter (even the smartest of us), and we’re almost always wrong. It goes to show how crazy different Johan Santana really was from the rest of the crowd. I like both Hughes and Chamberlain, but despite Hughes looking better in his given role last year, I think he’s probably the weaker play in 2010. Whoever wins the final spot obviously has the higher chance of performing up to the rankings in the Tiers.

69. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS (184)—Things just keep spiraling downward for Matsuzaka. His injury cascades are getting out of control at this point, and I don’t think he’s capable of putting up more than 150 innings at this point. Still, being in Boston affords him enough wins and he strikes out enough guys to be worthy of a cautious investment. UPDATE: Yeah, more news of injuries. Down down down goes Daisuke.

70. Kevin Correia, SD (263)—Anyone remember the, ahem, plump fairy from Legend of Zelda: Link to the Past who always upgrades your weapons and gives you magic potion for free when you toss your things into her fountain? Yeah, that’s Petco Park.

71. Jon Garland, SD (402)—I want to hate this guy, but in Petco, it’s hard to abhor any pitcher.

72. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL (347)—A solid if unspectacular low-dollar investment in most league formats.

73. Rick Porcello, DET (197)—See what I mean about him not throwing K’s? When are the strikeouts going to come? Right now, he’s like Aaron Cook, except with a sexy mask on so you don’t notice until the end of the season when Scooby Doo pulls it back to reveal Old Man Cook who’s been out to destroy your fantasy budget all along!

74. Joel Pineiro, LAA (259)—I can’t wait till he faces the Mariners and shuts us out for 8 innings. But he’s still not someone I’d recommend too highly on draft day because 1) he doesn’t throw strikeouts at all anymore, 2) the M’s offense is meager, and 3) Pineiro did not pack Dave Duncan in his suitcase like his agent recommended.

75. J.A. Happ, PHI (228)—A flyball pitcher in Philly who outperformed his FIP by nearly a run and a half? And somehow he’s the talk of the town? I just don’t buy it. He needs to do a lot more to really be a solid investment, and I don’t see him making that kind of leap this season. He’s going to cost way way more than he will probably deliver, in my opinion.

76. Brian Matusz, BAL (294)—I want to hate young pitchers, because they’re very unpredictable. But Matusz looked awfully poised out there in his late 2009 stint. Temper expectations due to his flyball tendencies, but I think he could be a pretty solid help to AL Only teams. A low 4 ERA and a WHIP nearing 1.35 aren’t really out of the question.

77. Mat Latos, SD (324)—I was really enamored with him during his short stint with the big club last year. His stuff and mound poise were both better than most reports I had read. I think he was rushed a bit, and I hope he gets a chance to start in Triple-A this year. But he should be back soon, and I’m optimistic he can be an asset in deeper leagues almost immediately. I’m buying.

78. Gil Meche, KC (266)—The Royals are run by people who have the mental acuity of a retarded T-Rex. They took a knowingly fragile pitcher and essentially told him to man-up. Good plan, guys! I like Meche, but I don’t trust the organization. Like at all.

79. Ryan Rowland-Smith, SEA (385)—I think Seattle fans are too high on him. Still, there’s a potential profit to be found here for non-Mariner leagues if you’re just looking for Wins, a 4ish ERA, and a WHIP that won’t hurt you too badly. As a southpaw in Safeco with a superb defense behind him, he’s worth a small investment for sure.

80. Justin Duchscherer, OAK (313)—Depressed or not, I want this guy on my team for cheap.

81. Madison Bumgarner, SF (297)—I know he was supposed to be an awesome pitching prospect, but if what we saw at the end of last year in Triple-A as well as in the big leagues is indicative of his true talent level, I’m going on record right now as saying he’s vastly overrated. This is one of those situations where you’re probably not going to listen to me because you’ve already fallen in love with the pre-’09 scouting reports, but I’d caution you to take a good long look at Bumgarner’s stats and velocity from the upper levels last year. If that’s where his stuff is from here on out, there’s a good chance the big leaguers are going to figure that funky delivery out quickly and start hammering away. There’s plenty of time for a bounceback, but just use some common sense in the here and now on Bumgarner.

82. Brett Myers, HOU (331)—After all these years, Myers has simply never figured out how to keep the ball in the park. His career HR/FB rate is an astronomical 15.5% (!!!) and versus righties it’s 16.8% (!!%&*!!). He’s moving to a park that isn’t so massively conducive to HR/FB, so that’s a perk. But it’s pretty apparent that he’s never going to be what most of us statheads would call “normal” in this area (10%, generally). Still, if your team make-up can handle the 4.5ish ERA and high 1.3’s WHIP, his K’s may be worth it, though.

83. Chris Young, SD (327)—He’s a gargantuan presence on the mound, and his deception of delivery is wicked. It’s too bad it looks like he’s never going to be healthy again. Still, I’d spend a buck (or more if it’s a really deep league) to see if he’s still got 150 innings in him. Young was born for Petco, so I hope he can get healthy and go back to pitching well there.

84. Barry Zito, SF (296)—I can’t imagine him being worth too awful much in a mixed league (okay, maybe a few bucks), but he’s back to being not totally sucky in NL leagues at this point. I wonder if Brian Sabean ever lets it get to him that he’s paying Barry Zito $19 million per year to be his 5th starter.

85. Bronson Arroyo, CIN (316)—His BABIP was crazy lucky last year. I think he’ll give more strikeouts to his owner this year, but it’s going to be at a cost of an ERA closer to 4.5 than the 3.8 Arroyo ran last season. I also don’t think he sniffs the 1.2’s in WHIP. In other words, regress regress regress.

86. Erik Bedard, SEA (216)—Seattle’s a perfect place for him to play stats-wise. It’s just too bad nobody has any idea if he’ll come back remotely resembling the Bedard of old. I wouldn’t expect much more than 80 innings out of him due to his injury recovery (they’re saying June now, and it may be longer), although there’s a chance those 80 innings may be better than anybody else available to you in that span. Keep an eye on him.

87. Brad Penny, STL (352)—He’ll be a groundball pitcher in no time with Dave Duncan’s tutelage. And he’ll probably be worth a small investment in NL leagues. Small as in not much.

88. John Maine, NYM (383)—There is no end to the joke that is the New York Mets medical staff. I think Maine could probably have some use in him given the right pitching coach and medical staff. But the Mets don’t instill enough confidence in me to recommend anything other than a good therapist if you own Maine.

89. Marc Rzepczynski, TOR (356)—I’m a fan. Keep him under consideration for cheap in almost all formats.

90. Homer Bailey, CIN (280)—I’m not as high on him as most, but I think there’s some upside here. I liked the velocity spike last year as he finally started throwing as hard as all the scouting reports said he did way back when. But again, keep your arms at Dusty Baker length with a young Reds pitcher.

91. John Lannan, WAS (ND)—You could do worse in deep leagues. He’ll get some Wins and have a 4ish ERA. He reminds me a lot of Kirk Rueter.

92. Luke Hochevar, KC (ND)—My first rule with Kansas City players, especially developing ones, is avoid. Almost exclusively. But I’m so tempted by repeatable skills like improving strikeout rates and walk rates, a solid groundball rate, and a flukey LOB% that I am beside myself in again recommending Luke Hochevar. I’d definitely risk a buck in deeper leagues to see if he can figure out how to put everything together.

93. Kenshin Kawakami, ATL (425)—He had some control issues at the outset, but I liked what I saw of him in the 2nd half enough to say he warrants a small bid.

94. Kevin Millwood, BAL (406)—Have fun in the AL East, Kev!

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