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Thoughts for Final Week of Fantasy Football Drafts

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Peyton Barber

I recommend drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber given his current fantasy football draft cost

And just like that we are into the final week of fantasy football drafts. As I posted over at the FF Today Forums this morning, announcing our latest Draft Buddy projections update, today I am going to sign up for some more online drafts.

Then, I will surely be kicking myself later with all of the time required for in-season management thanks to being in too many leagues! Ah, but I love to draft! Best ball?

Here are some notes, updates and random thoughts for your fantasy football draft before we get into real football starting in exactly one week!

Draft Buddy Projections Update

This morning we updated the FF Today projections, rankings, ADP and depth charts in Draft Buddy. Here are the projection highlights:

  • Alshon Jeffery down
  • Dallas Goedert up
  • Sammy Watkins down
  • Chris Hogan up
  • Slight bumps for Bilal Powell, James White and Peyton Barber
  • Slight bump down for Carson Wentz

A tip I mentioned on Twitter… if you have keepers and/or draft pick trades in Draft Buddy, on the action tab change both reset options to “no” before hitting Update Projections.

Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy, and good luck to everyone still drafting!

Recent Draft Results

Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #2 (12th pick)
Scout Fantasy Online Champ. #1 (10th pick)
FFPC Best Ball (8th pick)
Dirty Dozen (3-player keeper, 12th pick)
FanEx (8th pick)
Scott Fish Bowl (12th pick)

Here are rosters from six of my drafts (yes, there are more) to help me pick out some trends to hopefully provide some insight for your remaining drafts.

Apparently I have zero luck getting a Top 6 pick this year. The Dirty Dozen was set by prior year finish, but three times picking 12th, two 8th and one 10th. C’mon man.

Quarterback

While I went with a top QB a couple times, I definitely lean more to the wait. There is a big group of players with similar expectations. Jared Goff and Derek Carr represent a great combination of low cost and upside in my opinion.

I was not even dreaming of drafting Jameis Winston at the start of the preseason, but he’s looked great and Bucs offense has numerous weapons. I wouldn’t normally hold a third QB but between Winston, who could perform as a Top 6 QB upon his return, over throwing another dart at a bench RB or WR, it feels worth the wait for a draft cost of next to nothing.

Running Back

These drafts are in order from most recent to oldest, left to right first row then second row. Note the last four drafts I took Kenyan Drake. He is getting a little more expensive now as people are seeing the opportunity available to him.

Clearly I was searching for value at RB from the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts backfields throughout draft season. I still think Ty Montgomery will be passable fantasy contributor (all of these drafts are PPR) but I am pretty much fading the three Packers backs now.

On the Colts, I will still take a shot on Jordan Wilkins because there are Nyheim Hines believers out there, keeping Wilkins cost pretty low.

Wide Receiver

At WR, wish I had a little less Demaryius Thomas, as he is sliding in drafts now, and wish I had more Cooper Kupp. He will be a sweet security blanket for Goff, and is used in the red zone.

I tried to make a point of grabbing Marquise Goodwin before the market caught up with him, but then you can see with the two most recent drafts I switched gears to the now cheaper Pierre Garcon. At the end of the day, I want a piece of the San Francisco 49ers passing game, and preferably (as with all picks) at a reasonable cost.

Tight End

Top TE hasn’t worked out from a value standpoint the last couple drafts, and I’ve become more interested in Indianapolis Colts Jack Doyle. I have a little apprehension about the potential slice of receptions going to Eric Ebron over Doyle.

Ricky Seals-Jones has a nice opportunity for himself and is really cheap. I’m in, obviously, but realizing how unreliable he very well could be, I opted for Ben Watson in my last draft over Seals-Jones. I may take a third TE in that league (still drafting), RSJ or rookie Dallas Goedert, to see how each start the season under my team control rather than taking a chance leaving them on waivers.

Draft Peyton Barber

In the interest of time I’ll post my tweets about drafting Peyton Barber.

Yikes, that is a lot of RB to name below Barber when I was originally throwing out an estimate of 10. Will definitely need to revisit this one later.

Good Luck Champ!

Darren Summer

Two-time Fantasy Football World Champion and long-time Draft Buddy member, Darren Summer

Crazy I didn’t piece this together years go, but we have a pseudo-celebrity among our Draft Buddy members. Or maybe better to say A-level celebrity (in fantasy football circles). Darren Summer, who has used Draft Buddy for years and years, we’ve emailed back and forth pretty much every season, and I knew he played in the higher stakes leagues online and in Las Vegas.

Darren is the 2018 Scout Fantasy, Fantasy Football World Champion. And… he also won it in 2016! Two-time champ! Draft Buddy user. Awesome stuff Darren, and good luck again this year!

FanEx FAD Experts League Fantasy Football Draft Recap Continued

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QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

The face of the San Francisco 49ers, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, doesn’t have much in the way of playing experience entering his 5th NFL season, but he is my QB1 in the FanEx FAD fantasy football draft.

The FanEx Fantasy Analysis Draft (FAD) is a 12-team, 20-round draftmasters (best ball) PPR scoring fantasy football draft that requires each participant to write analysis for their picks. I drew the sixth overall pick, and described the league and comments for Rounds 1 to 5 last week.

Draft Buddy MFL Integration

Before we dive into my next picks, here is a new video for Draft Buddy I created from this draft that shows how the integration with MyFantasyLeague.com works to pull in franchise names and, even better, draft results. It makes it so much faster to update Draft Buddy at the press of a button.

Here is part two, my picks and commentary for Rounds 6 through 12.

Rounds 6 to 12 (June 18-23)

WR Michael Crabtree, BAL

Michael Crabtree was not really on my radar very much, even though I was leaning WR with this pick – too early for a QB, no top TE remaining, RB none too exciting at this point. Looking at players such as Pierre Garcon as the main target on the 49ers, or Devante Parker as a potential breakout candidate (yet again), a review of current ADP indicated I could wait on either of those guys. Which brought me to Crabtree. Veteran savvy WR joins veteran QB in a not very talented receiving group. Joe Flacco may be a fantasy pariah, but he isn’t stupid, already stating out of OTAs, “(Crabtree’s) the guy.” Crabtree should have numerous 10+ target games, making him a quality WR3.

RB Marlon Mack, IND

Seven rounds, starter spots filled at RB, WR and TE, but not QB or the flex spot. With 8 non-QB starters, unless a top QB comes at really good value, I am happy to wait longer. In all likelihood, my flex starter will be a WR most of the time. However, a review of available players, running backs with projected decent touches are getting thinner than wide receivers with projected decent targets. Marlon Mack, come on down!

Mack is coming off a so-so rookie season and offseason shoulder surgery, but has a good opportunity with the departure of Frank Gore. He had positive runs and miserable negative yardage plays. Here is to his first year experience, and new HC Frank Reich, helping make Mack a more effective runner. Not counting on it at this point but the return of Andrew Luck (early reports are good) would be a huge boost for the whole offense.

WR Pierre Garcon, SF

Now I get my WR target I was keen for two rounds ago. I was slightly shocked to see 49ers Marquise Goodwin get drafted back in the early 7th round, and realize I might be somewhat lonely supporting the Haitian as I did this time a year ago. What it ultimately means is, he is going to be on a lot of my fantasy teams this year. Last year he got injured, but he returned good PPR value for his low draft cost – 40 catches for 500 yards in 8 games without Jimmy Garoppolo (or a team win for that matter). Kyle Shanahan is a positive influence for his WR1. Better QB. Returning from neck injury which is scary but all signs are good, and Garcon hadn’t missed a game prior to last season since 2012. As the 40th WR off the board (Goodwin was 32nd), we shall see who becomes the more consistent contributor. I like my chances with the taller, bigger, more experienced guy.

QB Jimmy Garoppolo, SF

At this point I would love to wait longer for my first QB. Note I said, “first”, not, “starter”. We are looking at a committee approach to QB for my team at this point which is ideal for a best ball league. Whomever fills the first and second QB spots we hope provide the right amount of volatility week-to-week to score one of the top collective starters at the position. Mine is the 10th different team to draft a QB and Garoppolo represents QB12 off the board (Dolfi/Walls already paired Drew Brees and Jared Goff). If I did wait longer, then I am risking not having much choice in who I select, since teams are grabbing their second. So, Jimmy G. …

Even though there are options available considered more likely to finish in the top 10-12 in season scoring (because they’ve done it before), like Philip Rivers, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Alex Smith, drafting for top 12 is a zero-sum gain at this point. Why not draft a guy with upside who could surprise with a top 6 finish? All of his main skill players are already drafted so clearly fantasy players are high on the 49ers offense. We caught a glimpse what Garoppolo is capable of late last season. The prior four QB don’t excite me. This pick does.

QB Patrick Mahomes, KC

The writeup for this pick shouldn’t be vastly different from my prior pick, except Patrick Mahomes is clearly more risky, having made one career NFL start in a meaningless Week 17 game last season. Love the weapons on the Kansas City Chiefs. Would Andy Reid really be so careless as to hand the reigns of a competitive team over to someone with such little experience? I don’t think so. Mahomes is actually projected QB12 in this scoring by FF Today’s Mike Krueger. MK is from Kansas City and usually has a good read on the Chiefs. He clearly likes the upside of Mahomes and I do too. Happy to take the risk here over the group of QB still available – Blake Bortles, Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota – who don’t have nearly the dynamic skill players that Mahomes does.

WR Kenny Golladay, DET

Clearly third in the pecking order on the Detroit Lions, Golladay isn’t exactly your ideal high projected target-reception guy to expect any degree of consistency from. However when veteran teammates say glowing things about a young player who flashed as a rookie last season, I take notice. From Golden Tate, “this guy can be dominant. He’s a WR1 kind of guy.” Plus, Eric Ebron is gone and there isn’t much receiving talent at TE.

RB James White, NE

“Mr. Playoffs” is still around in a very crowded backfield in New England. Dion Lewis is gone but rookie Sony Michel is aboard plus Jeremy Hill joining holdovers Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Michel should be involved – perhaps heavily – but I am okay betting against that given the rookie + Pats learning curve he has to overcome. Hill and Gillislee won’t both make the final roster, perhaps neither. White is a very good pass catcher and has the trust of the coaching staff and Tom Brady.

Final Rounds

The draft is 20 rounds but with the remaining used for kickers, defenses and depth, we will close here, but I will post my copy of Draft Buddy to the member download page so you can review all of the rosters, draft report and more. I find the positions tab particularly useful post-draft to review the rank each player was drafted at their position. For example, Jimmy Garoppolo was the 12th QB drafted in this draft, and Patrick Mahomes, QB17.

Fantasy Football Rankings Update – Rob Gronkowski, Todd Gurley and Young Upside Wide Receivers

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Tyler Boyd

Who is this guy? Someone you should consider taking a chance on drafting before Brandon LaFell and a host of other veteran receivers who aren’t going to help you win your fantasy championship.

We are right in the thick of fantasy football draft season, with this upcoming weekend being perhaps the busiest one of all. Making sure I have a quick turn around answering questions from Draft Buddy customers is putting pressure on my ability to update my player rankings.

This morning I did manage an update however, which you can see all at once on the one-page cheatsheet. Quite a few changes based on recent news, including:

  • New England Patriots RB Dion Lewis requiring a second surgery on his knee
  • positive reports for Carolina Panthers WR Devin Funchess
  • positive vibes for Cleveland Browns offense including QB Robert Griffin III – say what?
  • Denver Broncos QB situation a complete mess to figure out

And numerous other things from the last week. Plus, some of the bigger changes to my rankings are as a result of impressions and strategy considerations from drafting my own leagues the last few weeks. Here goes:

Rob Gronkowski is no longer in Tier 1 at TE by himself
The feeling here is, I am probably not drafting Gronk this season, and I hope showing him in the same tier as the next three – Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed and Travis Kelce – indicates that recommendation to not draft him. Not for a first round or early second round pick. He is dinged up currently, apparently not serious, but it gives us a small reminder he does carry some more injury risk than most with the pounding he takes. He is obviously great when going full steam, but I worry the risk-reward just isn’t worth it to grab Gronk where you need to for his services. Give me one of my other Tier 1 tight ends at a decent discount off the Gronk rate.

Todd Gurley is no longer in Tier 1 at RB by himself
Kicking myself a little here this was even necessary. Originally, it was Gurley plus Le’Veon Bell. Okay, so Bell gets suspended four games (now three), so he drops out of Tier 1. I did feel each of the other closely ranked RB had some small warts, such as Adrian Peterson (age, wear and tear), David Johnson (partial season), Lamar Miller (limited prior workload), but doesn’t Gurley too? His team is going to be starting Case Keenum and a rookie Jared Goff this season, the receivers are dismal, so how much can we expect this guy to do? Lots of carries is great but highly efficient carries are better. I still have him number one, but am I so convinced he is deserving Tier 1 treatment alone versus the other three? No. Lets put them all in Tier 1, which goes to the nature of running the football in today’s NFL anyway, the position is devalued.

More emphasis on young, potential breakout WR in the later tiers
While I’ve always believed this, to draft young, upside wide receivers late in drafts as the fourth, fifth and sixth wideout spots on your roster, I thought my rankings were a bit off in this regard. Perhaps the rankings are supposed to reflect where a player will finish the season, and in that case it makes some sense to rank a veteran player who is mostly ho-hum, like Pierre Garcon, Robert Woods and Cincinnati Bengals “starter” Brandon LaFell (ugh) above Bengals rookie Tyler Boyd or projected San Francisco 49ers slot receiver Bruce Ellington.

For drafting purposes though, and especially drafting this late, lets go for upside. A host of players have it at wide receiver – Boyd, Ellington, Tajae Sharpe, Jaelen Strong, etc. If they work out, great! If they don’t, it cost you little and you can throw them back. Put it this way, are you going to win your fantasy football league championship with Brandon LaFell on your roster? Maybe, but I think the odds are extremely low he contributes to help you get there.

Thanks for reading. Please feel free to post your own comments agreeing or constructively disagreeing with these opinions or any of the rankings. There is a scheduled update for Draft Buddy late tonight, available tomorrow morning. Happy drafting!