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Straight Cheese Week 24 Streaming Starting Pitchers – Lauer, Erlin, Bieber

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Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians

Cleveland Indians Shane “Don’t Call Me Justin” Bieber baffled the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday in 6-2/3 of shutout ball. Chris picks him as a prime streaming option this weekend facing the Detroit Tigers on Sunday.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for week 24 streaming starting pitchers, let’s take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 23 Review

Warning: the summary below may be disturbing to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.

NameDateGSIPERHBBKDecERAWHIP
Anthony DeSclafini CIN9/7 vs SDP14.004803 – 9.002.00
Vince Velasquez PHI9/9 @ NYM14.005714L11.252.00
Trevor Cahill OAK9/9 vs TEX12.673261 – 10.133.00
Total for Week 310.671217781-210.132.25
Running Total 67381.6715033012737031-163.541.20

Wow and I thought the week before last was bad. Utter failure all the way around. I think what we are witnessing is some tragic regression with the Stream-O-Matic 2000. The July and August success was too much to sustain. Well, there is only one thing to do: PANIC! I’m giving you my last four pitchers to stream this week in a dire attempt to bring my September numbers back to something close to respectable.

Week 24 Streaming Starting Pitchers

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Wednesday Friday (The Padres reshuffled their starting pitchers after this article posted on Thursday). Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Tuesday, September 11th.

LHP Eric Lauer, SDP
Owned Y2%/E2% · vs Texas Rangers – Friday Saturday, September 15th

Listen, there is a reason Lauer is sitting out on your waiver wire. He’s struggling a bit in his rookie season. Struggling to the tune of a 4.80 era (4.51 xFIP), 1.62 whip, 19.5 k% and 8.00 k/9 in 95 2/3 innings.

So why am I bringing him up here? Well, he’s facing the Rangers. I’ve been screaming from the mountaintops all season about the benefits of streaming against the Rangers when on the road. Against LHP on the road they have a 0.270 wOBA (29th), a 0.109 iso (29th) and strike out 26.1% of the time (last in mlb). I’m the least confident in Lauer of the four pitchers I’m suggesting this week but I’m tossing the dice a bit in hopes of avoiding snake eyes.

RHP Vince Velasquez, PHI
Owned Y39%/E30% · vs Miami Marlins – Saturday, September 15th

Vince was not kind to me last week when I targeted him on the road versus the Mets. I’m willing to forgive and forget this weekend as he faces the Marlins at home. He comes into the matchup with a 4.30 era (4.06 xFIP), 1.28 whip, 26.0 k% and 9.91 k/9 in 138 innings. The Marlins come in with a 0.298 wOBA (23rd), 0.144 iso (26th) and striking out 24.6% of the time (23rd). I’m looking (hoping) that Vince rebounds this weekend in this favorable matchup.

LHP Robbie Erlin, SDP
Owned Y3%/E1% · vs Texas Rangers – Sunday Friday, September 14th

Take everything I said about the Rangers on the road versus southpaws and apply to Erlin’s matchup on Friday. The difference is that Erlin has something Lauer didn’t: better home splits. Overall Lauer has a 4.42 era (3.47 xFIP), 1.14 whip, 20.0 k% and 7.21 k/9 in 93 2/3 innings. At home his numbers look like this: 2.92 era (3.54 xFIP), 0.95 whip, 19.8 k% and 6.75 k/9 in 49 1/3 innings. The strikeouts go down but the free swinging Rangers should give him a bump in that department.

RHP Shane Bieber, CLE
Owned Y37%/E41% · vs Detroit Tigers – Sunday, September 16th

Shane “Don’t Call Me Justin” Bieber currently has a 4.32 era (3.27 xFIP), 1.33 whip, 25.1 k% and 9.55 k/9 in 98 innings. Even with the high era and whip you can make the argument for rostering him for his strikeouts. His reasonable 3.27 xFIP (or what I like to call “true era”) indicates that he may have been unlucky and could be due for better days. Well, his last outing may be an indication that those better days are here. On Tuesday he baffled the Rays to the tune of 11 strikeouts, 3 hits and 3 walks in 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball.

This weekend he faces the Tigers and their 0.286 wOBA (last in mlb), 0.136 iso (28th) and 24.6 k% (22nd). Roll Bieber out there and thank me later.

Remember, these suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Monday September 10

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Philadelphia Phillies are facing a RHP at home (Erick Fedde WSN who has faced 142 batters). On FanDuel the Phillies are currently putting up 2.19 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Erick Fedde is currently allowing 128% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.80 (2.19 x 128%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Phillies RHP at home Erick Fedde WSN 142 2.19 x 128% 2.80 +0.61 1.66 x 128% 2.12 +0.46
Mets RHP at home Jeff Brigham MIA 17 1.84 x 139% 2.56 +0.72 1.41 x 131% 1.85 +0.44
Royals RHP at home Lucas Giolito CHW 675 2.06 x 117% 2.41 +0.35 1.59 x 113% 1.80 +0.21
Rockies RHP at home Zack Godley ARI 699 2.32 x 101% 2.33 +0.01 1.77 x 99% 1.75 -0.01
Brewers LHP on road Jon Lester CHC 665 2.21 x 98% 2.17 -0.04 1.68 x 100% 1.68 -0.01
Pirates RHP on road Adam Wainwright STL 88 2.12 x 103% 2.19 +0.07 1.62 x 102% 1.66 +0.03
Indians TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.15 x 100% 2.15 +0.00 1.64 x 100% 1.64 +0.00
White Sox RHP on road Jakob Junis KCR 659 2.04 x 104% 2.13 +0.09 1.56 x 105% 1.64 +0.08
Nationals RHP on road Jake Arrieta PHI 641 2.12 x 100% 2.11 +0.00 1.61 x 99% 1.60 -0.01
Yankees RHP on road Kyle Gibson MIN 718 2.15 x 97% 2.08 -0.07 1.62 x 96% 1.56 -0.06
Diamondbacks RHP on road German Marquez COL 693 2.03 x 98% 1.99 -0.04 1.54 x 98% 1.51 -0.03
Twins LHP at home J.A. Happ NYY 640 2.04 x 97% 1.98 -0.06 1.57 x 97% 1.51 -0.05
Giants LHP at home Sean Newcomb ATL 635 2.01 x 96% 1.92 -0.09 1.55 x 95% 1.47 -0.08
Rangers RHP on road Jaime Barria LAA 460 2.04 x 92% 1.87 -0.16 1.55 x 94% 1.46 -0.10
Cubs LHP at home Wade Miley MIL 264 2.53 x 74% 1.88 -0.65 1.91 x 76% 1.45 -0.46
Angels LHP at home Mike Minor TEX 568 1.72 x 105% 1.81 +0.09 1.33 x 105% 1.40 +0.06
Cardinals RHP at home Trevor Williams PIT 612 2.02 x 87% 1.76 -0.26 1.54 x 88% 1.36 -0.19
Rays RHP at home Corey Kluber CLE 746 2.12 x 81% 1.72 -0.40 1.62 x 83% 1.35 -0.27
Braves RHP on road Dereck Rodriguez SFG 392 2.15 x 79% 1.69 -0.46 1.64 x 80% 1.31 -0.33
Marlins RHP on road Jacob deGrom NYM 734 1.92 x 64% 1.23 -0.69 1.48 x 67% 1.00 -0.49

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Astros RHP on road Francisco Liriano DET 491 2.35 x 117% 2.76 +0.41 1.77 x 115% 2.04 +0.27
Dodgers LHP on road Cody Reed CIN 106 2.04 x 112% 2.28 +0.24 1.55 x 111% 1.73 +0.18
Reds LHP at home Alex Wood LAD 599 2.38 x 87% 2.07 -0.31 1.79 x 88% 1.57 -0.21
Tigers RHP at home Justin Verlander HOU 739 1.98 x 82% 1.63 -0.35 1.53 x 84% 1.29 -0.24

Straight Cheese Week 23 Streaming Starting Pitchers – DeSclafani, Velasquez, Cahill

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Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds

Rough week last week for streaming pitchers but looking for a rebound this week, going back to the well with right hander Anthony DeSclafani of the Cincinnati Reds, facing the San Diego Padres Friday.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for week 23 streaming starting pitchers, let’s take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 22 Review

NameDateGSIPERHBBKDecERAWHIP
Brad Keller KCR8/31 vs BAL18.002424W2.250.75
Brian Johnson BOS9/2 @ CHW11.334712L27.006.00
Lance Lynn NYY9/2 vs DET13.676916L14.732.73
Total for Week 313.0012204121-28.311.85
Running Total 64371.0013831312036231-153.351.17

To say Sunday blew up in my face is an understatement. Wow, who would have guessed that both starting pitchers from the Red Sox and Yankees would end up completely crapping the bed? I was on a very nice roll there and slammed into a brick wall when the calendar flipped to September. Don’t worry, Hoss. I really like this week’s trio of hurlers and believe we’ll be back on our feet.

Week 23 Streaming Starting Pitchers

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Wednesday morning. Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Tuesday, September 4th.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
Owned Y20%/E19% · vs San Diego Padres – Friday, September 7th

Maybe it is because they are too acclimated to the beautiful San Diego weather? How else can you explain the ineptitude away from Petco Park? Against RHP on the road they are currently posting a 0.285 wOBA (29th), 0.128 iso (last) and striking out 26.3% of the time (also last).

DeSclafani comes into the matchup with a 4.37 era (3.99 xFIP), 1.24 whip and striking out batters 21.0% of the time in 90 2/3 innings (7.84 k/9). He’s slightly better at home with a 4.34 era (3.33 xFIP), 1.24 whip and 24.3 k% (9.00 k/9).

RHP Vince Velasquez, PHI
Owned Y44%/E35% · @ New York Mets – Sunday, September 9th

Through Tuesday the Mets have a 0.283 wOBA (last in mlb), 0.139 iso (26th) and a striking out 22.6% of the time (22nd) when facing RHP at home. Enter Velasquez and his 4.10 era (3.99 xFIP), 1.25 whip and striking out batters 26.3% of the time (9.94 k/9). This is a situation where he should excel.

RHP Trevor Cahill, OAK
Owned Y33%/E30% · vs Texas Rangers – Sunday, September 9th

The Rangers struggle on the road. This is the 10th time I’ve written that this season. The previous 9 times I suggested streaming a pitcher against the Rangers resulted in a 1.94 era, 1.22 whip, 6 wins and 46 strikeouts in 51 innings. Currently versus RHP on the road they have a 0.305 wOBA (20th), 0.162 iso (16th) and strikeout 25.3% of the time (27th).

Cahill currently has a 3.60 era (3.59 xFIP), 1.16 whip and is striking out batters 22.7% of the time (8.28 k/9). Even better are his home numbers: 3.60 era (2.83 xFIP), 0.78 whip and 28.4 k% (9.36 k/9). This is the 3rd time I’m suggesting streaming Cahill. The other two times he pitched absolute gems: 22 strikeouts in 12 scoreless innings. Let’s make it three.

Remember, these suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.