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Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC East

June 19, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB in 2014. Can he continue the trend?

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB in 2014. Can he continue the trend?

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Buffalo Bills

  • Matt Cassel is so average to below average, but we just don’t see E.J. Manuel being good enough to take the job away from him, unless it is due to injury. Rex Ryan is setting high expectations early in Buffalo, so backing the veteran is the smart move.
  • LeSean McCoy’s points per game were the lowest of his career in 2014 since his rookie season. He had his second most rushing attempts at 312 (vs. 314 in 2013), but he was far less effective than usual with them, and his targets dropped by about 30 off his norm. Here is hoping the Bills ratchet up his role in the passing game. We’ve got 300 carries, 70 targets. Tough to pull his yards per carry higher than 4.2 but that will clearly make a huge difference how much fantasy bang for you buck you get. At any rate, the coaching staff appears very likely to marginalize the remaining backs on the roster. McCoy or bust.
  • Sammy Watkins might hit 1,000 yards, who knows what Percy Harvin is going to bring to the table and Robert Woods appears settled as a ho-hum third receiver. As long as the defense performs as Ryan would like, no reason for the passing game to open it up even if they were capable with Cassel or Manuel at the helm. As an aside, if Watkins doesn’t crack 1,000 with some vigor then dynasty owners who picked him last season are going to sour on him.
  • The last time the Bills had an exceptionally fantasy relevant tight end? I don’t know, Jay Riemersma? Pete Metzelaars? Maybe best to just go with never, but they aggressively signed Charles Clay which is weird. I’m intrigued and hopeful, but not overly optimistic.

Miami Dolphins

  • Ryan Tannehill steadily improved three straight seasons to the point he completed over 66% of his passes and landed in the top 10 in fantasy points at QB last season. And now departed Mike Wallace probably wasn’t the easiest WR to play with. We see the upward trend continuing for Tanny, and who doesn’t love a projection with their QB throwing 600 passes?
  • Lamar Miller doesn’t wow us but he gets the job done, and doesn’t seem to have an immediate threat to his primary rushing role from rookie Jay Ajayi. Not many backs get this percentage of the workload, and by many accounts the team is improved, especially on defense. There is room for upside in these numbers.
  • The Dolphins can’t afford a sophomore slump from Jarvis Landry. There is dissenting opinion on how good Kenny Stills really is, coming from the Saints and perhaps being a product of the system and QB Drew Brees. I still thought he looked pretty good. Rookie DeVante Parker is currently out due to foot surgery. Jordan Cameron hasn’t been a pillar of health. While we believe the receiving corps is improved overall, there is definitely some risk here.

New England Patriots

  • How many games will Tom Brady ultimately be suspended? We have to assume four at this point pending the outcome of the appeal, so roughly a 25% decline across the board is factored into his projections.
  • As good as LeGarette Blount has looked at times (mostly versus the Indianapolis Colts), I have a hard time believing Bill Belichick is going to give him enough carries to be a reliable fantasy starter week in and week out. Certainly much harder to support the guys behind him on the depth chart though. Oh, and Blount misses Week 1.
  • Each of the main receivers have enough of an NFL career to reference, and not much changing around them, to anticipate major changes in their output. Rob Gronkowski is the lead dog. Julian Edelman the underneath high catch, low TD guy. Dave opened my eyes Brandon LaFell was more effective last season than I thought. Danny Amendola never saw the inside of a trainer’s room he didn’t like.

New York Jets

  • There should be some good battles between the Jets and Bills this season as they somewhat mirror one another right now. Strong defense, improved at the offensive skill positions, and haven’t a clue what they are going to get from their quarterback. In the Jets case, looks like the veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick sits and Geno Smith gets another chance to make a good impression.
  • We currently have Fitzpatrick projected like the more regular starter. It is anybody’s guess how long the leash will be on Smith, assuming he starts Week 1. Maybe best to split the attempts about 50-50 for the season at this point, but certainly, no recommendation to draft either one.
  • It would be nice to see the old Stevan Ridley from 2012 who scored 12 touchdowns, but it doesn’t seem in the cards. The Chris Johnson experiment is one and done, and likely his career. Chris Ivory is the probable starter. He was two shy of 200 carries last season, the first 16-game season of his NFL career. Not a confident projection but tough to allocate more carries elsewhere given Ivory’s projected role.
  • Can Brandon Marshall motivate Geno Smith to force feed him the ball like Jay Cutler? Maybe. That could get him to 1,000 yards but a painfully low yards per catch, and touchdowns will be tough to come by. If its bad for Marshall, its likely worse for Eric Decker, even though he’s had a year with Smith. Devin Smith is a burner. Jace Amaro showed some promise but there is such a logjam at tight end after the top guys, no need to reach for him.
  • Overall, not a bad group of skill players, but Marshall is on the downside, a decent committee but no world beaters at running back, and we don’t think Smith or Fitzpatrick are capable of elevating these guys for a prolonged period.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Buffalo Bills Team Report

June 17, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

LeSean McCoy, along with Rex Ryan, bring big expectations to the Buffalo Bills.

RB LeSean McCoy, along with new head coach Rex Ryan, bring big expectations to the Buffalo Bills, but quarterback continues to be an issue for the team.

QB Matt Cassel

Entering his 11th year in the league, Cassel is at that point of his career where he enters every year as either a stopgap starter or veteran insurance for an unproven young player. While he has a solid chance to hold 3rd year player E.J. Manuel off and win the Bills starting quarterback position, we don’t like his odds of producing a solid fantasy season in 2015. Never an accurate passer (reaching a 60% completion rate just once in the last six years), he isn’t a solid fit in a Bills offense that will feature plenty of runs and play action passes. You can do much better on draft day.

QB E.J. Manuel

Just two years into his career, Manuel is well on his way to being a failed 1st round pick. Benched in favor of veteran journeyman Kyle Orton last season, Manuel will enter training camp in a dogfight with veteran Matt Cassel to win the starting job. Given his lack of instincts and poor accuracy, we don’t expect Manuel to win that battle. If he does, he could prove to be a decent QB2 given the strong skill position players that management has accumulated, but we don’t see any reason for adding him to your fantasy roster until he strings together a few solid performances.

RB LeSean McCoy

After setting career highs in rushing yards with 1,607 and total yards with 2,147 in 2013, McCoy struggled last season in Philly, averaging just 4.2 yards per carry and 5.5 yards per reception as he lost goal line work and caught the fewest passes of his career with just 28. His reduced effectiveness (at least part of which could be placed on an injury-plagued, inconsistent offensive line) coupled with his desire for a new contract paved his way out of Philadelphia, and he was traded to the Bills in a shocking offseason move. In Buffalo, McCoy will take over as the Bills leading running back and figures to earn 350-375 touches in offensive coordinator Mark Roman’s run heavy offensive attack. The Bills quarterback issues will likely limit McCoy’s touchdown opportunities but he rates as a solid mid to lower tier RB1 given his expected workload.

RB Fred Jackson

Since earning a consistent role with the Bills in 2008, FJax has seemingly finished every year with a larger role than was expected of him entering the season. However, at 34 years of age and with the addition of LeSean McCoy to the Bills offense, he figures to assume the role of a pure backup in 2015. Bills management and coaches have indicated that Jackson will spell McCoy to give him a break as well as split the pass receiving role, a role that limits Jackson to little more than a handcuff for McCoy owners.

WR Sammy Watkins

Taken with the 4th pick in last year’s NFL Draft, Watkins proved to be a dynamic addition to the Bills offense over the first eight games of the season, catching 38 of his 67 targets for 590 yards and five touchdowns. He stumbled after that, however, hauling in just 27 of 61 targets for 392 yards and one touchdown. While Watkins has a bright long term future in the league, his immediate fantasy prospects aren’t nearly as solid, as the Bills quarterbacking situation is unlikely to improve over last year. Also, Percy Harvin was added to supplement the team’s group of wide receivers and the team is expected to feature its rushing attack more often, as has been Rex Ryan’s raison d’être on offense during his entire coaching career. While it would be easy to predict a huge breakout season for Watkins in his sophomore campaign, that’s not how we are reading the tea leaves. He rates as a mid to lower WR2, albeit one with a huge upside.

WR Percy Harvin

The enigmatic Harvin brings his road show to Buffalo in 2015 after suffering through a pair of abysmal seasons in Seattle and New York with the Jets. Sure to bring plenty of off the field drama to go along with his superior athletic skills, it is anyone’s guess as to how Harvin will perform in Buffalo after being forced to sign a one-year, $6-million prove it contract. Just 27 years of age on opening day, Harvin has the potential to turn his career around but we’re not sure that he fits in as a key cog in the Bills offense in 2015. New offensive coordinator Mark Roman will feature a strong rushing attack and exciting 2nd year wide receiver Sammy Watkins figures to key the team’s passing attack. We’re not opposed to adding the talented Harvin to fill one of your bench spots but the price needs to be right given his eccentricities coupled with his inability to stay healthy (just 23 games played in the last three seasons) and the Bills questionable quarterback situation. Remember – this is a player that has never topped 1,000 receiving yards during his six-year career.

WR Robert Woods

After a less than stellar rookie season when he caught just 40 of his 86 targets for 587 yards and three touchdowns, Woods received some healthy praise from Bills management after improving to 65 receptions for 699 yards and five touchdowns in 2014. However, that failed to prevent the team from bringing in Percy Harvin in free agency, sending the former 2nd round pick Woods to a reserve role. The truth is that Woods hasn’t shown a lot of playmaking ability and with the addition of Harvin as well as tight end Charles Clay and running back LeSean McCoy in what figures to be a heavily run based offense, we expect to see his production regress in 2015.

TE Charles Clay

Sometimes teams need to overpay and that was the case this offseason when the Bills signed Clay to a five-year, $38-million contract with $20 million in guarantees. That’s a fair chunk of change for a former 6th round pick who has caught 127 passes for 1,364 yards and nine touchdowns in 30 games over the past two seasons. While it’s hard to fault Clay for taking the money the Bills offered, it’s fair to say that he had a much better chance of having a breakout fantasy season in Miami with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback then he will in Buffalo with either Matt Cassel of E.J. Manuel running the offense. We rank Clay as a mid-tier TE2 who will likely finish with between 600-700 yards and 3-5 touchdowns.

Also see: Buffalo Bills IDP Team Report | New England Patriots

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Fantasy Analysis: New York Jets Trade for WR Brandon Marshall from Chicago Bears

March 16, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

NFL: DEC 15 Bears at BrownsWith a deadline looming to determine the draft pick compensation the New York Jets owe the Seattle Seahawks as part of their trade for Percy Harvin, the Jets traded a 5th round pick in this year’s draft to acquire Brandon Marshall from Chicago.

With the acquisition of Marshall, the Jets will almost certainly release Harvin. Doing so prior to March 19th lowers the draft pick compensation owed to Seattle from a 4th round pick to a 6th round pick in this year’s draft.

In New York, the 30-year old Marshall (turning 31 on March 23rd) will be paired in the starting line up with Eric Decker, giving the team its most formidable pair of starting wide receivers in several years, as the team attempts to surround either Geno Smith or a veteran free agent acquisition with talent at the team’s skill positions. The Jets will assume the remaining three years and $23.7-million of Marshall’s contract, none of which is guaranteed.

The talented yet mercurial Marshall will be joining his fourth team in ten years after previous stints in Denver, Miami and Chicago. During his nine-year career, he has topped 1,000 yards seven times and appeared in five Pro Bowls.

Fantasy Analysis

After topping 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards in seven consecutive seasons, Marshal suffered through a subpar campaign in 2014 as leg and rib injuries, as well as a punctured lung, caused him to miss three games. He finished the season with 61 receptions for 721 yards and eight touchdowns, his worst production since his rookie season in 2006, wearing out his welcome in Chicago along the way.

The team’s new management felt it was addition by subtraction in deciding to move Marshall to the New York Jets for just a 5th round pick.

In Chicago, Marshall won’t have Jay Cutler force-feeding him the ball and it certainly won’t be a surprise if the Jets issues at quarterback lead to another season with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards. In just one season, Marshall moves from being a potential top 10 fantasy wide receiver to no better than an upper-tier WR3 entering 2015.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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