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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups to Stack / Avoid Friday July 6

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Stack #1
Indians
·
Stack #2
Red Sox
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Stack #3
Tigers

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.

My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

How to Read the Charts
The Cleveland Indians are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.65 FanDuel and 1.99 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Paul Blackburn OAK who after facing 99 batters is currently allowing 118% more ppa in FanDuel and 117% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.102 on FanDuel and 1.603 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.65 x 118% in FanDuel and 1.99 x 117% in DraftKings.

FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.102 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack CLE RHP at home 2.65 Paul Blackburn OAK 99 118% 3.13 0.48
Stack BOS RHP on road 2.26 Jason Hammel KCR 454 118% 2.67 0.40
Stack DET RHP at home 2.05 Bartolo Colon TEX 387 115% 2.35 0.30
Stack SEA RHP at home 2.09 German Marquez COL 404 114% 2.39 0.30
Stack TOR RHP at home 2.30 Sonny Gray NYY 394 111% 2.55 0.25
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid MIL RHP at home 2.24 Mike Foltynewicz ATL 363 74% 1.66 -0.58
Avoid TBR RHP on road 1.81 Jacob deGrom NYM 426 66% 1.20 -0.61
Avoid ATL RHP on road 2.21 Freddy Peralta MIL 106 63% 1.39 -0.82

DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.603 through yesterday

Advice Lineup Situation Situational ppa Pitcher Batters Faced Pitcher’s Effect Modified ppa Diff
Stack CLE RHP at home 1.99 Paul Blackburn OAK 99 117% 2.32 0.33
Stack BOS RHP on road 1.72 Jason Hammel KCR 454 118% 2.03 0.30
Stack DET RHP at home 1.57 Bartolo Colon TEX 387 116% 1.82 0.25
Stack SEA RHP at home 1.62 German Marquez COL 404 114% 1.84 0.22
Stack TOR RHP at home 1.74 Sonny Gray NYY 394 110% 1.91 0.17
— — — — — — — — —
Avoid MIL RHP at home 1.70 Mike Foltynewicz ATL 363 75% 1.27 -0.43
Avoid TBR RHP on road 1.41 Jacob deGrom NYM 426 69% 0.97 -0.44
Avoid ATL RHP on road 1.68 Freddy Peralta MIL 106 61% 1.02 -0.66

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 12 – Estrada, Nova, Covey

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Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays

Rick says strike while the iron is hot, and if you are looking for a pitcher to stream grab Toronto Blue Jays Marco Estrada off three straight quality starts, facing the Los Angeles Angels Friday.

Apparently I am taking this fantasy baseball thing a little too seriously. Just like my team, I am now on the DL. I have been battling vertigo since Sunday, and mostly losing. I hope this explains why this is a bit short.

We are searching for streaming starting pitchers, which often can look like the ramblings of a man who has lost his mind. So if you feel that is the case, blame the vertigo.

Streaming Starting Pitchers Week 12

Marco Estrada, TOR – at LAA · Fri Jun 22

Marco Estrada has somehow figured out how to pitch in the last two weeks. In those three starts, he has allowed 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings while striking out 19 and walking only 3 batters. Though one was against the lowly Baltimore Orioles, the other two were against the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals. Can this be true? Amazingly yes. A road trip to play the Los Angeles Angels awaits him on Friday, so grab a ride on that train while it’s rolling.

Ivan Nova, PIT – vs. ARI · Thu Jun 21

A guy I picked last week and feel that he can help you this week too is Ivan Nova. Since going on the DL, fantasy owners have avoided Nova like the sorority chick with the open cold sore. The Pirates host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday and this is the type of matchup where he can give you 5-6 good innings, a bunch of punch outs, and maybe even a win.

Dylan Covey, CWS – vs. OAK · Sat Jun 23

Dylan Covey is a bit of a roll of the dice. He’s carrying a 2.90 ERA right now and the swinging Oakland A’s are coming to town on Saturday. Covey isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but the Athletics have a way of making everyone look like a strikeout pitcher. Covey ditched his 4-seam fastball and the new sinker approach has really helped his ground ball rate. This looks like a good play for the truly desperate.

Dereck Rodriguez, SF – vs. SD · Sun Jun 24

Here’s another guy I picked last week and feel that he can help you this week too. San Francisco’s Dereck Rodriguez is pitching pretty well since being inserted in the Giants rotation. The San Diego Padres come to town for a Sunday afternoon tilt, which bodes well for a half dozen K’s, good ratios and maybe even a win.

Paul Blackburn, OAK – at CWS · Sun Jun 24

Oakland’s Paul Blackburn isn’t as good as his 1.50 ERA suggests, but that’s what you get when you have only pitched in one game this season and you pitched well. He draws the White Sox on Sunday on Chicago’s South Side, both advantages go to Blackburn. He won’t rack up the K’s, but should give you good ratios and a good shot at the W.

German Marquez, COL – vs. MIA · Sun Jun 24

I don’t usually like Rockies pitchers at home, but the Miami Marlins are coming to town this weekend. Like most Colorado pitchers, German Marquez puts up much better ratios on the road, but how can you turn your back on a game against the anemic fish from Florida for a Sunday matchup? Marquez is striking out better than a batter per inning and has been a bit unlucky on batted balls in play and his strand rate, so he’s not as bad as his 5.13 ERA suggests. He likely won’t do your ratios any good, but K’s and a W are your target here.