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Stack #2

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Stack #3

Stacking is a well-known DFS strategy. In an effort to identify stack worthy lineups I’ve been tinkering with the idea of looking at the opposing pitcher’s DFS points allowed. Similar to in fantasy football looking at the opposing defense’s fantasy points allowed to running backs to determine which one to start.
My approach is to look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS points per plate appearance. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production. It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
How to Read the Charts
The Cleveland Indians are facing a RHP at home and in that situation they are currently putting up 2.65 FanDuel and 1.99 DraftKings points per plate appearance or ppa. The opposing pitcher is RHP Paul Blackburn OAK who after facing 99 batters is currently allowing 118% more ppa in FanDuel and 117% more ppa in DraftKings than the current MLB average (2.102 on FanDuel and 1.603 on DraftKings). The modified ppa is simply 2.65 x 118% in FanDuel and 1.99 x 117% in DraftKings.
FANDUEL
MLB FanDuel average is 2.102 through yesterday
Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Batters Faced | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stack | CLE | RHP at home | 2.65 | Paul Blackburn OAK | 99 | 118% | 3.13 | 0.48 |
Stack | BOS | RHP on road | 2.26 | Jason Hammel KCR | 454 | 118% | 2.67 | 0.40 |
Stack | DET | RHP at home | 2.05 | Bartolo Colon TEX | 387 | 115% | 2.35 | 0.30 |
Stack | SEA | RHP at home | 2.09 | German Marquez COL | 404 | 114% | 2.39 | 0.30 |
Stack | TOR | RHP at home | 2.30 | Sonny Gray NYY | 394 | 111% | 2.55 | 0.25 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Avoid | MIL | RHP at home | 2.24 | Mike Foltynewicz ATL | 363 | 74% | 1.66 | -0.58 |
Avoid | TBR | RHP on road | 1.81 | Jacob deGrom NYM | 426 | 66% | 1.20 | -0.61 |
Avoid | ATL | RHP on road | 2.21 | Freddy Peralta MIL | 106 | 63% | 1.39 | -0.82 |
DRAFTKINGS
MLB DraftKings average is 1.603 through yesterday
Advice | Lineup | Situation | Situational ppa | Pitcher | Batters Faced | Pitcher’s Effect | Modified ppa | Diff |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stack | CLE | RHP at home | 1.99 | Paul Blackburn OAK | 99 | 117% | 2.32 | 0.33 |
Stack | BOS | RHP on road | 1.72 | Jason Hammel KCR | 454 | 118% | 2.03 | 0.30 |
Stack | DET | RHP at home | 1.57 | Bartolo Colon TEX | 387 | 116% | 1.82 | 0.25 |
Stack | SEA | RHP at home | 1.62 | German Marquez COL | 404 | 114% | 1.84 | 0.22 |
Stack | TOR | RHP at home | 1.74 | Sonny Gray NYY | 394 | 110% | 1.91 | 0.17 |
— | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Avoid | MIL | RHP at home | 1.70 | Mike Foltynewicz ATL | 363 | 75% | 1.27 | -0.43 |
Avoid | TBR | RHP on road | 1.41 | Jacob deGrom NYM | 426 | 69% | 0.97 | -0.44 |
Avoid | ATL | RHP on road | 1.68 | Freddy Peralta MIL | 106 | 61% | 1.02 | -0.66 |