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Oakland Raiders Team Report

August 21, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Coming at you! Oakland Raiders RB Latavius Murray is an obvious choice for a fantasy breakout candidate. Can he seize the opportunity and become a workhorse back?

Coming at you! Oakland Raiders RB Latavius Murray is an obvious choice for a fantasy breakout candidate. Can he seize the opportunity and become a workhorse back?

QB Derek Carr

Taken in the 2nd round of last year’s NFL Draft, Carr unexpectedly supplanted Matt Schaub in training camp to earn the starting role and played well enough to provide the Raiders with confidence that he is their long term answer at the quarterback position. Despite playing with wide receivers and tight ends that would rank amongst the worst depth charts at those positions in the league, Carr managed to throw for 3,270 yards with 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. However, much of that production came in garbage time (which certainly helped to inflate his touchdown pass total) and Carr managed to complete just 58.1% of his passes despite ranking near the bottom of the league in yards per attempt and yards per completion. While Carr has a strong arm, he will need to avoid the check down mentality that he displayed as a rookie as well as improve his accuracy if he is to emerge as a quality starter and decent fantasy option. Since we view some of the issues arising from his rookie season as the result of playing with inferior skill position players, Carr has the potential to emerge as a mid-tier QB2 in his second season due to the additions of Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, as well as the return to health of Rod Streater.

RB Latavius Murray

Proving why the Raiders are the Raiders, they kept Murray nailed to the bench for the first 11 weeks of last season behind veteran journeymen Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden before unleashing him on the league for the final five games of the season. During that stretch, Murray ran for 370 yards and a pair of touchdowns while producing another 108 yards as a receiver. Possessed with outstanding athletic ability, the 2013 6th round pick is an obvious breakout candidate in 2015. At 6’2” and 223 pounds, Murray has the size to handle a workhorse role and given the competition he will face in training camp from Roy Helu and Trent Richardson, he could be in line for 300 touches. The only negatives with Murray are his uneven skills as a receiver as well as a Raiders offense that figures to rate in the bottom third of the league. Murray is a lower-tier RB2 with upside.

RB Roy Helu

After showing plenty of promise as a rookie 4th round pick in 2011, gaining 640 yards on the ground while catching 49 passes for 379 yards, Helu emerged as nothing more than a 3rd down, change of pace back during his final three years in Washington. In 2015, he joins a Raiders rushing attack that will feature Latavius Murray with Trent Richardson and Marcel Reece also competing for touches. An underrated receiver out of the backfield, Helu has caught 122 passes for 1,107 yards in his career excluding 2012 in which he only appeared in 3 games. However, despite having solid agility and better than average speed, Helu has just three receiving touchdowns during his career despite averaging 8.9 yards per reception. That makes him little more than Murray’s handcuff this season although we wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders went with a committee approach if injury strikes down their starter.

RB Trent Richardson

Just two years after amassing 950 rushing yards, 367 receiving yards and scoring 12 touchdowns as a rookie despite playing much of the season with rib and knee injuries, Trent Richardson is well on his way to establishing himself as one of the biggest running back draft busts of his era. A total flop in Indianapolis after being traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Colts early in the 2013 season, Richardson had fallen behind Ahmad Bradshaw, Dan Herron and Zurlon Tipton before his days in Indy came to an end. Signed by the Raiders in the offseason, Richardson will battle Roy Helu, rookie undrafted free agent Michael Dyer and Marcel Reece for playing time behind Latavius Murray. Given his inability to gain yards on the ground (career yards per carry average of 3.3), lack of explosiveness and rumored weight issues in Indy, we aren’t banking on this reclamation project having a happy ending.

RB Marcel Reece

While Reece is a solid fullback and a capable fill in at running back (he has two 100 yards games to his career), the Raiders have chosen to only use him as a tailback when their hand has been forced. However, with Roy Helu and Trent Richardson joining him on the depth chart behind Latavius Murray, it is unlikely that Reece will see much time at tailback this season. And with Helu signed mainly for his receiving abilities out of the backfield, we don’t expect Reece will haul in many passes in 2015. His days as a late round flier in larger PPR leagues should be over.

WR Amari Cooper

With one of the worst group of wide receivers in the league last season, the Raiders were desperate for an upgrade at the position heading into 2015. Needing to address the position in order to give second year quarterback Derek Carr a better opportunity to succeed, and provide the offense with more playmaking ability, Oakland used the 4th overall selection in the draft to acquire Alabama product Amari Cooper. While Cooper lacks ideal size at 6’1” and 210 pounds, he has outstanding speed and displayed solid playmaking ability in college. In Oakland, he will be paired with Carr, who needs to attack the field vertically in order to progress as an NFL quarterback. However, with Cooper excelling on short and intermediate routes in college and Carr having shown a propensity for making those types of passes as a rookie, Cooper should receive a ton of targets and catch plenty of passes in 2015. The issue is whether he will be able to turn those receptions into big plays and how often he will be able to find the end zone on an Oakland offense that figures to finish in the bottom third in the league. Since Carr seems another year away from establishing himself as a true quality starter, a season with 900-1,000 yards and between five and seven touchdowns seems likely for Cooper making him a lower tier WR3 in his rookie season.

WR Michael Crabtree

After failing to live up to his promise after being taken by the 49ers with the 10th pick in the 2009 draft, Michael Crabtree joins the Raiders in 2015 where he is expected to start opposite rookie Amari Cooper. After catching 85 passes for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns during the 2012 season, Crabtree suffered through an injury plagued 2013 before being relegated to a more secondary role last season, catching 68 of his 108 targets for 698 yards and four touchdowns. In Oakland, Crabtree has the potential to emerge as the team’s top receiving option depending on how quickly Cooper adapts to the pro game. While we don’t expect that to happen, reports out of the Raiders training camp indicate that Crabtree is rejuvenated and motivated to prove the 49ers were wrong to reduce his role leading to his exit from San Francisco. With conservative Derek Carr at quarterback and Crabtree showing little explosiveness last season averaging a career-low 10.3 yards per carry, it is difficult to predict a solid comeback season from Crabtree no matter how glowing the training camp reports are. We rate him as a lower tier WR4 although one of the more intriguing options in that tier.

WR Rod Streater

Poised to possibly emerge as the Raiders top receiving option last season after catching 60 passes for 888 yards and four touchdowns during his second year in the league, Streater suffered a foot fracture in Week 3 that ended his season. And the Raiders moved on, adding Amari Cooper with the 4th pick in this year’s draft and signing free agent Michael Crabtree. Their additions all but ensure that Streater will assume a role as a low volume, possession receiver this year in Oakland. Possessing decent size at 6’3” and 200 pounds but with middling speed, Streater could produce some decent stats in that role given the Raiders murky outlook at the tight end position. However, until he strings together a couple of solid games, Streater is waiver wire material entering 2015.

WR Andre Holmes

A former undrafted free agent, Holmes was slowly emerging as a decent receiving option for the Raiders, gaining 693 yards and four touchdowns on 47 receptions last season after catching 25 passes for 431 yards and a touchdown in 2013. However, his path to the starting lineup is blocked in 2015 by Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. That leaves Holmes fighting with Rod Streater, Brice Butler and Kenbrell Thompkins for targets. Since Holmes has displayed solid playmaking ability during his stay in Oakland, we won’t be surprised if he wins the battle to emerge as the team’s backup. However, we still don’t like his fantasy prospects in 2015.

TE Mychal Rivera

On first glance, it appears that Rivera’s career is on the upswing. After catching 38 passes for 407 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie, he improved to 58 receptions for 534 yards and four touchdowns last season. However, a closer look reveals that, while Rivera may have posted marginally better production, he wasn’t really all that much better as a sophomore than he was as a rookie. First off, he failed to top 40 receiving yards in 12 games. Secondly, despite averaging a lowly 9.2 yards per reception, he managed to catch just 58% of his targets, a decline from his reception to target ratio of 63.3% in 2013. Finally, the Raiders added two players to the tight end depth chart in the offseason, blocking specialist Lee Smith and rookie 3rd round pick Clive Walford. With a reduced snap count likely, we don’t like Rivera’s fantasy prospects in 2015.

Also see: Oakland Raiders IDP Team Report · Denver Broncos Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Oakland Raiders IDP Team Report

August 21, 2015 By IDPManor Leave a Comment

The Raiders were very aggressive in adding defensive pieces via free agency last year, only to see their revamped defense perform much like the old one – poorly. Now, in addition to some more new faces, there’s also a new head honcho in Jack Del Rio. But will the results be the same?

Defensive Linemen

One of those free agent additions the Raiders made last year was defensive end Justin Tuck, who experienced a career renaissance with the New York Giants in 2013. That resurgence was short-lived, but despite only 43 tackles and five sacks last season Del Rio told Doug Williams of NBC Bay Area the 32-year-old remains a key contributor.

“Tuck has that experience and brings some of that wisdom to the group, so I think that’s very important,” Del Rio said. “A guy that’s been there at the highest level understands what it takes. So a guy like that, that’s buying into your message and doing the things that need to be done and helping others, that’s a positive factor for you.”

That might be, but from an IDP standpoint Tuck’s little more than a late-draft dart throw. Likewise for rookie Mario Edwards. The former Florida State standout has loads of talent and not a whole lot in front of him on the depth chart, but his inconsistency in college doesn’t bode well for Edwards’ odds of making a fantasy impact in Year 1.

Linebackers

The Raiders also brought in a new defensive coordinator in Ken Norton Jr., who told Eddie Paskal of the team’s website he can’t wait to work with second-year sensation Khalil Mack. “Khalil is special,” Norton said. “There are a lot of players that might be similar, but he’s in a class of his own. [Defensive end] Bruce Irvin in Seattle was similar, but at the same time, Khalil’s built. He’s athletic. He’s talented. He’s smart and he’s relentless. He’s amazing and he’s the type of guy that you want to surround him with good football players.”

Norton also praised middle linebacker Curtis Lofton, who joined the Raiders in free agency after being released by the New Orleans Saints. “When you have a former middle linebacker as your coordinator,” Norton said, “and a former middle linebacker as your head coach, that position becomes very important. You look at Curtis’ background, he’s played a lot of football for a long time and hasn’t missed any games. He’s very, very productive, very smart, knows how to play ball and knows how to run the defense. I’m glad we have him.”

Both linebackers have more than a little upside as three-down players. Lofton will likely be the steadier IDP LB2/3 with a higher floor, while Mack may be a bit more up-and-down but possesses a much higher fantasy ceiling.

It appeared the Raiders had another up-and-coming youngster in weak-side linebacker Sio Moore, but after the team signed veteran Malcolm Smith it appears they aren’t so sure. It’s a camp battle to watch, but with snaps (much less subpackage snaps) no sure bet for either player the pair are at best a speculative pick and at worst a wasted one.

Defensive Backs

It’s an annual rite of passage in IDP leagues. Every year, we write off safety Charles Woodson as being just too danged old to make a fantasy dent. And every year, not only does Woodson make a dent, but he thrives. And last year’s fourth-ranked IDP defensive back (and the NFL’s oldest defensive player) told Marty James of The Napa Valley Register he isn’t ready to be put out to pasture just yet.

“I just want to help this team turn it around,” Woodson. “This team has not been where it wants to be for quite some time now, and I want to be a part of the turnaround. I’m looking forward to a very positive season. I think we’ll compete this season with anybody that we play.”

There is of course risk involved with drafting a player who’s much closer to 40 than 30, but at this point we wouldn’t bet against him, either.

Also see: Oakland Raiders Team Report · Denver Broncos IDP Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football IDP

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC West

June 2, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Are the Denver Broncos going more conservative on us? More rushing? Fewer offensive plays? This is one fantasy owners are going to debate and question all summer.

Are the Denver Broncos going more conservative on us? More rushing? Fewer offensive plays? This is one fantasy owners are going to debate and question all summer.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1 (Draft Buddy coming soon!). To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Denver Broncos

  • Since we put together our initial projections, two potentially key news items out of Denver. One, LT Ryan Clady tore his ACL and is out for the season. Two, Emmanuel Sanders claims, “my goal is really to try to get a 1,000 yards,” describing the new, more balanced offense under HC Gary Kubiak. Both indicate we should temper our expectations with Denver, starting with Peyton Manning. We have a 20% decline in touchdowns from his 3-year average, but perhaps not enough in the yardage, current projections 410-600-4,900.
  • C.J. Anderson vs. Montee Ball, who do you like? We think Anderson did more than enough (and Ball has done little) to give him the benefit of the doubt he will lead the team in carries, even under a new coaching staff. That said, he has the lowest projected carries at 225 (tied with Frank Gore) of our Top 15 running backs. It is the receptions that push him up the rankings, at 45 on almost 60 targets, which makes some sense with the departure of and lack of decent replacement for Julius Thomas. Recognizing Ball can carve out a good role for himself, he is projected for 155 carries.
  • Regardless of Sanders’ comment above, with such a big gap between Demaryius Thomas and Sanders relative to the rest of the receivers, it is difficult to not project them each with similar targets, receptions and yards as last season. Keep in mind the Broncos did reel it in somewhat the second half of 2014 to compensate for Manning’s at the time unknown torn quad muscle injury.
  • On one hand, sure, lets lower expectations and adjust these projections down, either increasing the run to pass mix, reducing the total number of offensive plays, or both. On the other hand, wouldn’t you still rank Manning and company fairly high based on talent and their ability to put up points when they need to relative to other teams? We’re going to leave the projections as-is for now, but schedule further analysis and discussion soon.

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Holy conservative offense Batman. While the wide receivers were beyond awful last season, Alex Smith is still going to gravitate to keeping a high pass completion percentage and minimizing turnovers. This no-risk style makes him even a sketchy start in a great matchup. We don’t see the addition of Jeremy Maclin radically altering the expected output from Smith.
  • How amazing is Jamaal Charles to keep a 5.0+ yards per carry given the limitations of the passing game? That YPC on 250 carries, plus 50 receptions project him the top RB for fantasy football in 2015.
  • Maclin had an amazing year in 2014 coming off a completely missed 2013 season. He’s a good receiver, but is never going to feel like a WR1 on a team at only 6’0”, 198 lb. We’ve pegged him at closer to an 80-1,000-6 receiver in this offense than the near 1,400 yards, 10 TD he scored last season.
  • Seriously, Jason Avant is the Chiefs’ WR2? Not impressed.
  • If someone is going to challenge to be in the same top TE tier as Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham’s name will come up first, but why not Travis Kelce? Why didn’t the Chiefs use him more last season? We have 7-10% gains in targets, receptions and yardage, and there is potential there for more.

Oakland Raiders

  • We weren’t the only ones impressed with Derek Carr’s under the radar rookie season, were we? Thought he looked pretty good, especially considering what he was working with, and it’s the Raiders. Now they’ve added Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper. That’s got to help. Still a sub-4,000 yard passer but a lot of attempts gets him close plus 24 TD.
  • Having jettisoned Darren McFadden and failed reclamation project Maurice Jones-Drew, maybe the Raiders found a RB they can count on in Latavius Murray. It feels like we might be too bullish out of the gate here on Murray at over 1,100 yards, but one things the Raiders have done well in recent years is run the ball, and the depth chart isn’t nearly as crowded. Backup Roy Helu will primarily catch passes, making him a decent late round pick in PPR leagues.
  • Historically Dave has been pro-Crabtree and I’ve been anti-Crabtree. Things might be changing. Dave projected declines across the board for Crabs while I wonder if the change of scenery allows him to finally showcase some skills stifled under the 49ers conservative offense and sporadic play of Colin Kaepernick. Projecting rookies is never easy, even for a bona fide Day 1 starter like Cooper. How Cooper performs will be a major influence on Crabtree’s results.

San Diego Chargers

  • Philip Rivers is pretty darn consistent. Consistently good at that, and it doesn’t seem to matter too much what specific players are doing around him. If one guy falls off, then he utilizes someone else. Think Antonio Gates in 2013 only scoring 4 TD, and Malcom Floyd out most of the year… here comes Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. Last season Allen slumped and the running game fell on hard times… Floyd returned and use Gates more in the red zone. Not expecting a drop-off based on age just yet, so pencil in another Rivers year with 30 TD.
  • Melvin Gordon. He’s the clear starter who should garner most of the rushing carries on the season, making him worthy of a relatively high draft pick even with the rookie risk factored in. Still, we don’t want to hand out 1,000 yard rushing seasons willy-nilly. How about 900 on 200 carries, 6 TD? Woodhead had a career year in 2013 so lets not target that. More like half.
  • Which Keenan Allen can we expect in 2015? The impressive 2013 rookie, or the middle of the road 2014 sophomore? We are thinking closer to 2013. A sophomore slump is very common. Allen’s catch rate dropped 5% in 2014 from 2013, but bump that up and he’s back at an 80-1,000-6 season with potential for more if the targets go up. Gates has indicated he shouldn’t be utilized between the 20s as much, and the other receivers – Floyd, Stevie Johnson – are not a threat to steal targets from Allen. If anything, they are on the downsides of their respective careers.
  • Gates may want less work to help him stay healthy, but will the Chargers coaching staff comply? It depends on Ladarius Green; it depends on the circumstances at the time. I’d feel more comfortable drafting Gates based on projections of about 80 targets, instead of closer to the 100 he’s averaged the last three years.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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