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So Who Are We Starting This Week? Fantasy Baseball Rankings Week 3

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Custom MLB Standings Board

While not really related to the topic at hand – fantasy baseball rankings Week 3 – this custom MLB standings board someone made is pretty cool.

We are on the cusp of Week 3 of fantasy baseball season, and continuing from my Who Do I Start Week 1 post, and an update from a recent members newsletter, I am working towards a regular weekly fantasy baseball rankings feature.

This is some work but I am making progress. To be the most effective, I feel the end product should be a combination of:

  1. fantasy baseball rankings landing page, similar to our season-long draft rankings, and
  2. post with an overview of the week ahead and big picture thoughts about the rankings

Here is the fantasy baseball weekly rankings page. It shows rankings for each hitter position, each player’s upcoming schedule and probable pitcher they are facing, injury status and comments. Once a player’s game is underway, then his stats are shown below the starting pitcher’s name.

Although I feel it is pretty useful resource currently, I am continuing to revise this page as time allows because I am not entirely happy with it. It is a bit slow due to all of the data it is pulling in. That is something to improve. Combined player stats from the past two to three weeks would be a nice addition, to get an idea if a player is hot or cold recently. It is only hitters at this time but need to add pitchers, too.

There is a lot of potential with a feature like this. As I said, this will be an ongoing work-in-progress, but stick with us and we’ll get there. As for the rankings themselves, they are still predominantly based on average draft position prior to the start of the season. There is some movement for injuries and a few additions for players not captured from the ADP.

If anyone would like to contribute their fantasy baseball expertise and time to help keep the rankings updated, then please contact me and we can discuss getting you set up. Others feel free to comment below with additional feedback and rankings discussion.

Preparing For 12-Team Head-to-Head Fantasy Points League

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Draft Buddy Fantasy Baseball Draft Software

Whether I am in a roto scoring or a fantasy points scoring fantasy baseball league, the first thing I do for my draft prep is set up Draft Buddy.

Going to go a bit outside the box today describing how I am going to prepare for the Draft Buddy Head-to-Head Weekly Fantasy Baseball Points League. We really need a snappier name for this league.

The outside-the-box part is that this is a living (changing) document, with updates through today and the weekend describing what I am doing to prepare for the draft on Monday. I guess you could say the questionable part of this, is one would not normally publish their draft preparation in advance of a draft for their competitors to see.

Oh well. It’s fine. For the fantasy baseball community, for the greater good!

Fantasy Baseball Points League Draft Prep

Friday, 11:28am

Pi Day PizzaHaven’t accomplished much so far this morning, unless you include making a Pi pizza for my son to take to school, donating blood, and reading an article about an incredible theft of Star Wars collectibles.

Obviously, I am going to turn to Draft Buddy first to start my draft prep. I so often run Draft Buddy for roto scoring leagues this will be a good refresher doing it for a fantasy points league. Let me work up a YouTube video setting up Draft Buddy and post that.

Set Up Draft Buddy Demo Video

Friday, 2:35pm

Wow, that takes a while. Lunch was in there too, but recording the demo, processing the video and uploading to YouTube all add up in time. I didn’t even listen to or edit it, so hopefully, you find it useful. How to set up Draft Buddy for a fantasy points league video…

Review Overall Rankings For Position Values

Friday, 3:10pm

Normally when I am in a new fantasy league with unfamiliar scoring or format (number of teams, starting lineup, etc.), I will jump to review the overall results in Draft Buddy. This helped me immensely in two fantasy football leagues in the past two years. I took advantage of some odd scoring in each that most of the other participants did not realize had a major impact on player values. They wrongly assumed the fantasy scoring was close enough to standard performance or point-per-reception (PPR).

This is my first time in a long time doing a fantasy baseball points league, and first time on Fantrax using their default scoring. Earlier this week I input scoring for various league managers (CBS, ESPN, Fantrax, Yahoo) in our database to allow for custom scoring player stats, projections and player pages. I noticed there is quite a difference in default scoring from site to site, so especially in fantasy baseball always check your league scoring.

Fantasy baseball points league overall cheatsheetOkay, so the Draft Buddy overall results… half of the Top 12 players are starting pitchers. Another five starting pitchers make up the players ranked 13th to 24th overall. This I did not expect. Its unfortunate for me personally, because I love to draft hitters over stockpiling pitchers. Maybe I would have altered the scoring!

To make sure I did this correctly I am going to run the numbers through Last Player Picked, fantasy points version. You knew that was a thing, right?

The numbers all match, except for pitchers LPP does not have quality starts as an option. Checking the projections and quality start scoring, everything looks accurate from Draft Buddy. Starting pitchers are very valuable. Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper and J.D. Martinez are in the Top 10, while Trea Turner, Ronald Acuna and Jose Altuve are 20th and lower. Why?

On the pitchers side, they get 1 point for an inning pitched, 10 for a win and 3 for a quality start. That is pretty significant for a starting pitcher expected to log 190-200 innings. For hitters, no penalty for strikouts, and homers are worth 4 each, +1 for a run and +1 for an RBI. The 30-40 projected home run crowd has an advantage over players like Turner and Altuve who are each projected for fewer than 20.

Going to do some more detailed review before I return to discuss next steps in my fantasy baseball draft prep.

Friday, 4:50pm

The end of the day is near, so I will wrap for today with a couple thoughts. First, I need to set the 12-team schedule for our league’s regular season and playoffs. We are trying to find something fair and balanced. For regular seaosn, we hope to reduce schedule luck, while not diminishing the competitiveness of head-to-head format. Ideally, we will not use divisions. Every team plays every other team the same number of times.

For playoffs, we want it to be challenging to make the playoffs, so likely four of twelve advance. Debating a one week semi-finals, one week championship one-and-done format, or a multi-week combined total points among playoff teams format.

Listening to Craig Mish on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio this morning, he mentioned how spring training stats can, in some cases, help identify undervalued players who are raking in March and continue that into April. That got me thinking that we actually have access to spring training stats from our provider, Reliant Stats. I will see how difficult it is to add these to the website, so maybe we can do our own research to help identify the next… what was one example he gave… oh right, Whit Merrifield.

Victory Points

Saturday, 1:35pm

Late last night after returning from indoor soccer, I set the weekly schedule and randomizes the draft order. The schedule is indeed a 22-week regular season. Every team will play every other team twice. Plus, every team will play against the weekly average score for the week.

This is called victory points format. If a team beats their “real” opponent, then they get a win. If a team beats the average score, then they get a win. Each week a team will finish 2-0, 1-1 or 0-2. As mentioned above, this should be a nice balance to reduce schedule luck from pure head-to-head, while still enjoying head-to-head competition that gets lost a bit in an all-play format.

The playoffs are the remaining MLB schedule after the first 22 weeks (including the short opening week and All-Star Game week merged with their subsequent week in the calendar. The single long playoff period is a total points competition between the top four teams based on won-loss record from the regular season. Should be a real slugfest at that point.

Drafting From The Wheel

Saturday, 1:55pm

Now for the draft order, I drew the… drumroll please… 12th pick in the draft. Yep, dead last. “The Wheel” as they call it. This season is actually the first time I’ve ever heard that term for drafting on the end, but drafting from The Wheel I am.

Not a bad spot really. I am sure many would like that spot since there seems to be a lot of different opinions between players drafted three through eight or ten. It is possible a pair of those top players falls to 12 and 13. Personally, I prefer an earlier draft pick because of the benefit of the early third round pick, outweighing the benefit of the early second round pick.

I also usually like being a spot or two off either end of a draft, because then one can try to take better advantage of tiering and position needs of the team(s) drafting after you on the short turn. Drafting on the end, I may be more inclined to grab a pair of players at the same position. This helps incent the start of runs, like pitchers, instead of waiting and getting caught because a run started at the other end of the draft board.

In this case with our points league, I wonder if drafters will follow average draft position that is readily available and based more on roto leagues. If they do without adjusting for the points scoring, a player who rightfully deserves a spot in our Top 10 could easily fall to me at the 12th and 13th picks. An example might be Giancarlo Stanton, a projected Top 5 hitter but normally drafted about 21st.

Or, the aforementioned starting pitchers with their high valuations. Surely Max Scherzer will still be drafted Top 5 regardless of format, but will all of Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander get drafted before my first pick? Do I take a pair of pitchers this early and worry about hitters later? It will be a tough decision given the uncertainty what options I’ll have coming back, another 22 picks later.

Spring Training Stats

Saturday, 3:10pm

Hey check it, we have MLB spring training stats. There may be some players missing if they weren’t in our database previously, but I will investigate that and add them as needed.

No roto values available but you can change the fantasy points scoring system to any of the major fantasy league managers or DFS sites using the Switch link in the upper-right.

Benefits of a Slow Draft

Sunday, 11:30am

I realize this is turning into one of the oddest how to prep for a fantasy baseball draft posts you’ve likely read in a while. As usual, things are hectic around here as I am juggling family obligations with website stuff and prepping for the draft is taking a bit of a backseat.

Thankfully, it is a slow draft with a 6-hour timer, not a live draft with a minute per pick. This draft had better not average 6 hours per pick, but it will span over days. This flexibility allows me to be a bit more casual prepping because I can research while the draft is underway.

I try to take a cerebral approach to fantasy drafting, which means intellectual as opposed to overly emotional decision making. And thinking intellectually, there is only so much one person can control in a draft.

In this 12-team league, I have exactly one pick for every 12. Picking 12th, I have zero control over the first 11 picks. To that end, do I need to spend any time – for this draft – deciding between Mike Trout or Mookie Betts? Is Max Scherzer rightfully the consensus number one starting pitcher? No, there is no need. It would be a waste of time.

Tailor your own draft prep to focus on things that will make a difference in your own draft, using all of the available information you have at the time. Maybe you don’t know your draft position until just before the draft starts, so you need to take a more broad approach.

My next step is to update the projections, depth charts and ADP in Draft Buddy, so I have the latest up-to-date information for the start of the draft. Plus, I did promise to take my kids to see Captain Marvel today. I’ll be back in a while with a short Captain Marvel review, and after Draft Buddy is updated.

Captiain Marvel Review

Sunday, 8:30pm

Captain Marvel was awesome! Excellent tribute to Stan Lee in the opening credits and short but respectful cameo of Brie Larson smiling back at him from chance encounter early in the show. The movie kept me highly entertained from start to finish.

The story really helped tie some things together in the Marvel cinematic universe, and did justice to the character showing how powerful and integral she is, and will be moving forward. It was great seeing Coulson and Fury. Highly recommended if you are fan of the Marvel movies.

Now, back to baseball. I am still working on updating the Draft Buddy projections, but most of the update is ready.

Mike Trout

Monday, 10:30am

And we’re off! No surprise Mike Trout went first overall followed by Mookie Betts.

Now seems like a good time to close this post, but start a new one to provide in-draft commentary. I will post the link, or you will find it on the homepage, once I get it set up. Thanks for reading my pre-draft ramblings!

Update: The draft is underway. Here is the link to our points fantasy baseball league draft recap.

MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

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Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds

Andy is back with Round 2 of his do-over fantasy baseball draft. One of the surprises is Cincinnati Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez taken with the 14th overall pick.

Last week I traveled back in time (not literally) to change my draft. In essence, a well-deserved do-over fantasy baseball mock draft round 1.

The first round was not really out of the ordinary but it did have some shakeups compared to Average Draft Position (ADP) from the beginning of the year. The second round has even more surprises.

This is a 12-team snake draft, standard 5×5 roto fantasy baseball league. I include ADP from the start of the year and the first round pick for each slot, after the player I would draft now if I could do it all over again.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

13. Chris Sale Preseason ADP #13, Corey Kluber · 1st Round Pick, Corey Kluber

I could have easily picked an offensive player but the chance of grabbing two stud starting pitchers back-to-back was too good to pass up. Kluber the first choice because of his divisional opponents and his ability to pad stats. Sale this time because he’s a stud, pure and simple. Yes, he does face the AL East, specifically the Yankees, plenty but otherwise dominates on the mound.

14. Eugenio Suarez Preseason ADP #14, Carlos Correa · 1st Round Pick, Aaron Judge

I said this would have some surprises. Going with Judge in the first round really assured me a building block in the outfield. Suarez allows me to do the same in the infield. He’s currently hitting .315 with 19 home runs and 68 RBI’s for a Reds team that is in last place (although if they played the Cubs a little more they might be in first place).

Correa is a popular pick but I am reminded of last year when the Astros didn’t have one hitter with over 100 RBI, and Correa’s numbers weren’t that off the charts. He had 24 home runs and drove in 84 but only stole two bases. Suarez currently is on pace to blow by Correa’s numbers from last year.

15. Paul Goldschmidt Preseason ADP #15, Kris Bryant · 1st Round Pick, Max Scherzer

At this pick I have my stud pitcher with Scherzer and now have a potential steal with the 15th overall pick in Goldschmidt. Goldy is starting to heat up as the D-Backs are finally getting healthy. He’s been on fire this month upping his home runs total to 20 while driving in 51. He’s got a ways to go to match his numbers from last year but he’s on the right track. The thing that makes Goldschmidt such a steal with this pick is the potential for Goldy to steal double digit bags as a first baseman. He needs to run more to make this happen but I’m happy with him at 15.

16. Freddie Freeman Preseason ADP #16, Manny Machado · 1st Round Pick, Luis Severino

The Braves are supposed to win next year, not lead the NL East in 2018. Freeman is a known commodity in fantasy baseball and to the diehard fan but the casual baseball fan may not be familiar with his talents. He’s hitting .315 with 16 home runs and 59 RBI. He also has eligibility at third base which is a big plus as well.

17. Justin Verlander Preseason ADP #17, Joey Votto · 1st Round Pick, Francisco Lindor

OK, I get it – enough pitching already. My strategy is usually to get a top of the line starter in the first two rounds. This year saw a lot of borderline number ones to get gobbled up early and often. Verlander is the pick for me at 17. He’s cooled off a little bit since his blistering start but he still has a 2.05 ERA and 160 punch outs. The nice thing about Verlander is that he’s going to get wins with the Astros and that for me puts him inside the Top 20.

18. Jacob deGrom Preseason ADP #18, Aaron Judge · 1st Round Pick, J.D. Martinez

I can’t be too hypocritical with this pick but having Martinez anchoring my outfield, this would be the best time to get a top of the rotation starter. deGrom is having a 2010 Felix Hernandez, Cy Young-type season. In that season, King Felix was 13-12 for the M’s with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts. deGrom is in a similar situation with the Mets. He’s currently 5-4 with a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The question is, will the Mets trade deGrom to a contending team? If he does, his wins will undoubtedly rise. If he doesn’t, he is still worth drafting in the mid-second round.

19. Javier Baez Preseason ADP #19, Freddie Freeman · 1st Round Pick, Jose Ramirez

I’ll be the first to admit, I never thought I’d be typing Javier Baez as a 19th overall pick in a fantasy baseball draft. I’m not a Javier Baez fan in the least bit. However, I need to put my subjectivity aside and look at the numbers he’s putting up this year.

Baez is clearly the Cubs’ offensive MVP with a stat line of: .291 avg, 17 jacks, 65 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He’s also in the top 20 in runs scored. These numbers make him a solid pick at this point of the draft.

20. Clayton Kershaw Preseason ADP #20, Francisco Lindor · 1st Round Pick, Manny Machado

This pick may surprise some but I can’t in good conscious let Kershaw fall any further. I didn’t like him in the pre-season draft because of his proneness to injury (back). The same verse has been sung again this year. Kershaw missed time due to back issues and therefore won’t make 30 starts again. However, he’s still one of the top 8 starting pitchers in the league and even five months of Kershaw is better than no months at all.

21. Carlos Correa Preseason ADP #21, Anthony Rizzo · 1st Round Pick, Nolan Arenado

Along the same lines of Kershaw, I couldn’t let Correa slide any further. He’s a top three offensive shortstop when healthy and plays on a top team. He’s going to fill at least four of the five offensive categories (maybe not so much stolen bases). This year, he’s been on the DL with back stiffness and according to manager AJ Hinch, won’t be back before the All-Star break (https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Carlos-Correa-return-to-action-up-in-the-13058029.php). He’s a complete steal at pick 21.

22. Charlie Blackmon Preseason ADP #22, Jose Ramirez · 1st Round Pick, Jose Altuve

A potential 1st round pick last year, Blackmon hasn’t been his off the charts self this year. Although selected for the All-Star Game, his average is down considerably since last year (currently .277) and he’s not running much (five stolen bases). However, he does have 17 home runs and is still scoring a lot of runs. Having him at 22 is definite value and matching with Altuve should have this fantasy team near the top in runs scored.

23. Andrew Benintendi Preseason ADP #23, J.D. Martinez · 1st Round Pick, Mookie Betts

Pairing Benintendi with Betts wasn’t planned in the least bit but looking at what was available for value near the turn, I’m happy with this pick. I looked at Rizzo and Bryant and for a potential five category player, Benintendi was too good to pass up. Picking him allows me to not worry about the outfield for a little while.

24. Bryce Harper Preseason ADP #24, Gary Sanchez · 1st Round Pick, Mike Trout

I didn’t think it would end up like this but two of the young stars of baseball will end up on the same team in this do-over draft. Harper started out on fire but has turned ice cold since May. He’s hitting below .200 and isn’t doing a lot to help himself in his free agent year. However, he is among the league leaders in home runs and is near the top of baseball in walks.

So there you have it. The 12 team snake draft do-over. I will have to admit, I really enjoyed doing this a second time and like any good educator, learned from my mistakes from the first draft.

Extra Innings

There are a lot of “snubs” that always come up during the MLB All-Star Game selection process, but I’m not sure there is anything we can do about it. When the All-Star Game is played, you are rewarding players for the first half of the season, or sometimes on name recognition if they are established players and off to a slower than normal start.

Basketball and hockey use the same midseason format. Football maybe got it right (one of the few things) by having their Pro Bowl after the end of the regular season. Although that is more out of necessity, and the Pro Bowl is typically the least interesting of the four major sport all-star events. Perhaps there is no perfect way to have a true all-star game.

I would like to see the game reward players for the entire season, not just the first few months. However, baseball is such a grind that finding players who would: 1) play after a 162 game season, 2) play after the World Series, or 3) play in a meaningless game at the beginning of November, seems near impossible. I am open to ideas to improve the All-Star Game, what do you think?