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FPC Draft Recap and Observations Drafting From 5th Pick

August 31, 2015 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Last night I took part in the third of three leagues I signed up for in the Footballguys Players Championship (FPC) hosted by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). I know, confusingly similar acronyms, but on the plus side, there is a $300,000 grand prize in the overall championship. Not that I expect to win the top prize among 7,500 teams, but I do expect to win at least one of these three leagues that awards $1,500 for first place. Two of three would be dandy.

In the previous two drafts, I had the 12th pick and the 2nd pick. This time the 5th pick, which is pretty good in my humble opinion. Here are some of my takes from the draft. Note for Draft Buddy customers, you can download each of the completed Draft Buddy files I used in these drafts so you can review the entire draft.

Let me start by saying that even though we have Adrian Peterson as the top RB on our board, I already got him in the draft where I had the second overall pick, so I felt perhaps I would diversify with this league. Leaving AP outside my Top 5 for this draft, I made a short list of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski for my first pick.

It turned out Julio Jones went 1.04 (I like it) leaving me Charles and Gronk to choose from. While many experts love Gronk in the first round, I’m not as much in that camp. I think it is doable. I think in this league in particular with 1.5 points-per-reception (PPR) for TE compared to 1 PPR for RB and WR, it makes sense mathematically, but I just don’t love taking a player first round in a spot where I only have to fill one starter.

Many experts are very much in support of the Upside Down drafting, or later called Zero-RB drafting methodology, forgoing RB in the first, even early rounds, for stud wide receivers instead and stockpiling middle round RB later. The first I read about it is from buddy Matt Waldman (2011), giving credit where credit is due. However, without getting into a lot of detail today, I disagree with that approach. I’ve always found a more balanced approach is best, RB-WR or WR-RB to open things up and leave you best set up to take advantage of players that unexpectedly fall in the draft, no matter what position they are.

First pick, I took Jamaal Charles.

When the second pick came around to me, DeMarco Murray – maybe Lamar Miller – were the only two RB remaining I really loved enough before seeing a big gap between them and the next group at RB. At WR, the current tier of Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and even Brandin Cooks was deeper. If I took a WR, Miller might make it back to me. If I took Murray, one of those WR – or Jimmy Graham – was much more likely to make it back to me. So, I took Murray.

Third round, one pick away and a bit surprisingly, Graham and Jeffery were both available, thanks in part to Joseph Randle going 3.01. The team in the 4 spot took Graham, leaving me Jeffery.

After three rounds I’ve got two star running backs, and Alshon Jeffery. I’m happy with that. Lets keep in mind it is a PPR league and I really do want a strong WR corps, so I think given my early picks I have less need to stockpile middle round RB and more emphasis at wideout. Also, keeping in mind TE do earn 1.5 PPR so need to constantly assess where a good one can be had, preferably at good draft value. Two are already off the board, and likely more before the draft gets back to me in the 4th round.

From here, maybe I’ll make some quicker bullet points by round. You can see how my roster took shape in the image above, and again, Draft Buddy users can download my completed Draft Buddy from last night’s draft.

Rounds 1 and 2

  • Nothing too out of the ordinary Round 1. Owners in the 4th, 11th and 12th spots all started WR-WR. Interesting that Randall Cobb (2.02) didn’t really get downgraded at all for his shoulder injury. Surprise pick: Brandin Cooks (2.09) but even more surprising: Mark Ingram (2.03). I’ve never seen Ingram go that high. In that owner’s shoes I would have risked he would get back to me in the 3rd, but I don’t have a problem with it, as he may very well could have missed out on him by waiting.

Round 3

  • Joseph Randle (3.01) seems quite high given very recent news item about full-blown RBBC in Dallas, and Darren McFadden looked better than Randle in the last preseason game.
  • Not surprisingly, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce (who I really like, but maybe not in this league since I already have Charles) and Martellus Bennett all went this round after Graham went.
  • First QB taken, Andrew Luck at 3.07. Still too early for me with all of the non-QB starter spots to fill.

Rounds 4 and 5

  • These rounds make me happy I went RB-RB to start. While there are certainly going to be some RB that pan out, you are still picking through many, “geez, I don’t know” options. Melvin Gordon (4.09) – maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. Todd Gurley (5.03) – seems really optimistic for this year. C.J. Spiller (5.11) – already sidelined, think very early bullish forecasts on Spiller are still causing him to get drafted high for my taste.
  • I took Davante Adams 4.08. Great offense, great QB, their best not injured WR right now. Definitely prefer to run with a less proven Adams in his situation than injured Emmanuel Sanders (4.04) or injured likely out Week 1, and doesn’t find the end zone much anyway, Julian Edelman (4.12).
  • My 5th round pick was a tough one. Jarvis Landry – high receptions but limited big plays and strong supporting cast to share with, good offense and QB – vs. Sammy Watkins – super talent, bad offense and QB. I said to my wife Sarah, “Bills WR?” to which she turned up her nose, and I knew she would do that so a bit of a leading question. It was more likely Watkins might make it back to me in the 6th round, so I took Landry, who I seem to like more than most.

Rounds 6 and 7

  • I was thinking Watkins obviously. Or Charles Johnson as a potential breakout candidate. I was thinking Arian Foster as I loved my start and at this point if he comes back in the Week 4-6 range, could be a huge boom to the bottom line. None made it to my 6.08 pick. Johnson actually went late-5th. Watkins was close, at 6.05.
  • In the meanwhile, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph both went, driving down the available good tight ends, and only one of the first four teams drafting after me had a TE at this point, so I added Delanie Walker (6.08).
  • Only QB I mentioned so far is Andrew Luck, but Aaron Rodgers also went in the 3rd, Ben Roethlisberger in the 6th, then Matt Ryan (7.01) and Drew Brees (7.04). Ultimately, this turned out to be one of the oddest order of QB I’ve seen drafted this year. Five QB are gone but Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still available? I would not normally take a QB this early but since no players were really standing out for me as must-haves, and Wilson looks like exceptional value, I tag Wilson.
  • Although Martavis Bryant getting drafted two spots later I may have strongly considered had I thought of him. He was down my cheatsheet given the most recent projection update.
  • More proof I’m glad I went RB early as Giovani Bernard and Danny Woodhead are getting drafted. I’d rather set my team apart at this stage with a Walker, Wilson, or regularly contributing WR, than be scraping together points from low-use RB who can be very good in short spurts but be tough to rely on them over the course of the season.

Rounds 8, 9 and 10

  • QB curiosity continued. Peyton went at 8.12, but Sam Bradford (9.03) and Teddy Bridgewater (9.07) went within spitting distance of him. Cam Newton still hasn’t been drafted and ultimately went QB16 at the top of the 14th round. Pretty baffling. Since I had Wilson I was determined to not spend very much at all on a second QB, but some great values there. All the more reason to not spend a 3rd round pick on Luck or Rodgers.
  • Still some good WR picks in here – Steve Smith, Roddy White (although getting a bit skeptical of him) – and RB picks are sketchy. LeGarrette Blount, who I’ve drafted numerous times already this year, could be good but could also be extremely frustrating to try to figure out what weeks to start him (after his suspension).
  • Given importance of the position and limited options with true upside, took Julius Thomas. He seems below the radar now since we haven’t heard much about him lately, but Jaguars offense seems to be clicking and JT appears in line to return Week 1.
  • At this point, I still only have 2 RB, so time to add some depth. DeMarco’s backup Ryan Mathews went 8.09 immediately after I took Thomas, so hitting on a starter at this point will be tough. Darren McFadden is available, every Cleveland RB is available. What if Arian Foster isn’t back as optimistically as recent news reports? What if he comes back and gets hurt again? I do think Alfred Blue is the clear guy to own over Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk, so I tag Blue who should start first part of the season and gives me time to work the waiver wire for other RB options to emerge.

I guess I will cut it off there for the commentary. While not an optimal high stakes, win the big overall prize strategy, I did handcuff Jamaal drafting Knile Davis in the 11th round. I feel good about the team, I might as well take out a little insurance on my top RB.

As usual, got sniped by a pick or two on a few guys, but its always going to feel that way. What I’ve learned is you can’t have every player you want, there are only so many roster spots available. I think I got some underrated, quality upside depth at decent value, and this team has a good shot to compete for the league championship, and maybe more!

Filed Under: Fantasy Football, Fantasy Football Draft Buddy

Preseason Week 2 Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 19, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Benjamin about to be carted off. Left knee. pic.twitter.com/EBWly497EL

— Joe Person (@josephperson) August 19, 2015

Here is a recap of up to the minute (Kelvin Benjamin!) NFL news and notes since our last update before Week 1 of preseason. We are still a day away from more game action but we’ll call it Preseason Week 2 news and notes. These will factor into our next projections and rankings changes, later today or tomorrow.

Free Agents of Interest

Ray Rice

Arizona Cardinals

The team signed RB Chris Johnson to a one-year contract with minimal guarantees, heavier on the incentives. We’ll slot him in behind Andre Ellington and rookie David Johnson on the depth chart for now. We aren’t that interested in drafting CJ, unless ridiculously cheap with a roster spot to burn perhaps, but it’s a signal to be even less confident in the entire Cards RB corps.

Baltimore Ravens

WR Breshad Perriman continues to miss practice after practice (12 straight as of Tuesday). Twitter reports say he had an MRI and it came back normal, and the Ravens expect him back in about a week. The missed time does not inspire a lot of confidence Perriman will have a significant fantasy impact this season.

Buffalo Bills

LeSean McCoy limped off the field Tuesday with a hamstring injury. MRI results were negative (or should I say results were positive?), but looks like he’s out for preseason and plans to be ready for a Week 1 return.

Fred Jackson, Anthony Dixon, Bryce Brown and the latest, rookie Karlos Williams, are all missing practice due to injuries. Educated guess is Jackson is still the RB2 to own in this backfield. With all of these injuries Ray Rice’s name keeps popping up as a possible signing.

Listened to a Bills reporter Sal Capaccio on the radio Monday say the QB competition is quickly becoming a two-player race between Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor. E.J. Manuel is a distant third. None are worth drafting except in deep start two QB leagues at this point, of course.

Carolina Panthers

I apparently can’t get this update written fast enough! Kelvin Benjamin went down during practice this morning (Wednesday) with an apparent knee injury. One of those didn’t touch anyone when it happened injuries, which are usually not good. Waiting initial results. Worst case, torn ACL and out for the year. Best case, simple sprain or tweak of the knee. Outcome could have a major impact on rookie WR Devin Funchess (who also tweaked him hamstring, by the way), Cam Newton and Greg Olsen.

Update August 20: Confirmed, Benjamin tore his ACL and is out for the season. We’ll distribute his hefty targets between rookie Devin Funchess, Jerricho Cotchery and Corey (Philly) Brown plus Greg Olsen, with the remainder falling into a generic “other player” bucket (like Ted Ginn, Jr. or Jarrett Boykin). Do not draft Benjamin. Funchess’ ADP will rise sharply. Cam down. Olsen a slight bump perhaps. He was already projected and ranked pretty high.

Chicago Bears

Rookie WR Kevin White is out for an extended period after requiring surgery on his shin due a stress fracture. He’ll go on regular season PUP at a minimum, missing at least the first six games, and his entire rookie season is in jeopardy. Do not draft.

Alshon Jeffery has a calf injury but it isn’t considered serious. There is a little risk here but on the plus side Jeffery’s targets could be off the charts with White out indefinitely.

Dallas Cowboys

RB Darren McFadden was removed from the PUP list this week, but pretty clear this is Joseph Randle’s job to lose at this point because McFadden is so far behind.

Denver Broncos

Reports are there is no clear backup or handcuff pick for starting RB C.J. Anderson between Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Both looked good in the first preseason game. Hard to imagine it will be Hillman when we hit the regular season.

Emmanuel Sanders is missing practice with the injury du jour, a strained hamstring. He is doubtful for their next preseason game.

Houston Texans

Starting QB watch: Brian Hoyer started the first preseason game. Ryan Mallett will start the second. It is still a coin flip call with no timeline on a decision.

Jacksonville Jaguars

WR Marqise Lee continues to miss practice with a hamstring injury. Allen Hurns should start opposite Allen Robinson at the beginning of the regular season.

Miami Dolphins

DeVante Parker appears 2-3 weeks away from returning to the team. He could make an impact this season and is worth the late pick in redraft leagues he currently costs as your second or third bench WR.

Damien Williams, not rookie Jay Ajayi, holds down the backup RB spot to Lamar Miller at this time. Ajayi only recently returned to practice.

Minnesota Vikings

The team lost RT Phil Loadholt to a torn Achilles’. While this didn’t prevent me from taking Adrian Peterson as the second overall pick in a recent moderate stakes redraft league, it isn’t good news for the Vikings running game and I thought worth mentioning.

New Orleans Saints

C.J. Spiller had knee surgery recently, described as a “maintenance” procedure to clean things up, and is expected to be out 2-4 weeks. That puts him in line to return for the start of the season, but it is an ominous sign for a RB with a bit of a track record being dinged up, and getting drafted relatively high on a team with other RB options. Moving down and marking Spiller as an “avoid” in our next rankings update. Khiry Robinson is one to watch, perhaps even target.

New York Giants

Rueben Randle is missing practice with knee tendinitis, while reports of Victor Cruz’s recovery continue to be positive. Cruz should be drafted ahead of Randle at this point. If Cruz is healthy enough to start the regular season, and it seems to be trending that way, then might as well leave Randle for the waiver wire in most leagues.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE Zach Ertz required surgery for a sports hernia and will sit out the rest of the preseason. Strangely enough, this happened not long after my last news and notes update in which I expressed buyer’s remorse drafting Ertz. He is expected back for Week 1 (albeit that seems a little optimistic) and we already moved him down our rankings slightly and slapped an “avoid” icon on him.

Washington Redskins

The Redskins TE position is decimated. Niles Paul (ankle) and Logan Paulsen (toe) are both out for the season, while Jordan Reed is, as usual, missing time due to injury (hamstring). Reed is hopeful to play in the team’s third preseason game. He’s a nice late flier pick, but health is a major concern.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Preseason Week 1 Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 13, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Fantasy players couldn't wait for TE Eric Ebron to get drafted last season to showcase his skills in the NFL. After a disappointing rookie season, now he's almost a forgotten man.

Fantasy players couldn’t wait for TE Eric Ebron to get drafted last season to showcase his skills in the NFL. After a disappointing rookie season, now he’s almost a forgotten man.

Here is a recap of key NFL news and notes since our last update a week ago, and to get us ready for Week 1 of preseason games. These items will factor into our latest projections and rankings changes. The starters shouldn’t play a lot in this opening week of preseason, but regardless, fingers crossed no major injuries!

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
RB Pierre Thomas
RB Ray Rice

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals apparently made a contract offer to free agent RB Chris Johnson. They’ve got injuries in the backfield, so this might be a lets get through the preseason signing (if he agrees to sign), or it could be more significant, an indication the team is not that happy with or confident in Andre Ellington?

Buffalo Bills

Karlos Williams is a new name to keep some tabs on out of the Bills backfield. Fred Jackson is banged up and Williams apparently passed Bryce Brown on the depth chart. The Bills are expected to run a lot, and you’ll want to know next man up if Shady isn’t up to that much workload.

Dallas Cowboys

RB Joseph Randle seems more secure in the starting spot than he did a couple of weeks ago, as he’s impressed while Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar are injured. If Randle doesn’t play much in the preseason take it as a good sign the team is saving him for the carries that matter.

Detroit Lions

TE Eric Ebron is getting positive reports out of camp. We’ll see how active he is in the Lions preseason games, but it is interesting to note how excited fantasy players were about this guy as a rookie, and how completely disinterested they are now. I haven’t drafted him yet – not a lot of leagues will there be a need to draft a second or third TE, which is where he’s getting drafted – but smells like a value pick with nice upside potential.

New York Giants

Odell Beckham Jr. (hamstring) is expected to play in the Giants first preseason game, while Victor Cruz (patellar tendon) did more work in a scrimmage versus the Cincinnati Bengals that initially expected, and Rueben Randle (knee tendonitis) is hobbled missing practice and might play in the first preseason game. No projection changes, but a quick update of these key receivers.

New York Jets

A week after we upgrade Geno Smith based on positive reports out of training camp, he gets his jaw broken in the locker room from the fist of a previously unknown linebacker. Ryan Fitzpatrick now takes the season projections and Smith drops down in the rankings to our unranked but still on the fantasy radar section.

Philadelphia Eagles

TE Zach Ertz received a compliment for improved blocking recently, but Brent Celek is still around and more than likely the better of the two, which could once again limit snaps for Ertz. I only really bring this up because I drafted Ertz earlier this week and feel like I reached a bit on him. I took him at TE7 at the top of the 9th round. Buyer’s remorse, I would have been better served going RB or WR there and grabbing Delanie Walker (drafted TE10, bottom of 11th) or Jason Witten (TE11, bottom of 12th). In fact, I did take Witten and wonder now if he’s going to start for me more than Ertz.

Pittsburgh Steelers

K Shaun Suisham is done for the year with a torn ACL from last week’s Hall of Fame game. Former New Orleans Saints K Garrett Hartley was signed. If you are drafting early, especially in a draft-only (no waivers, no roster moves) league, double-check the job security of your targeted kicker before taking one.

St. Louis Rams

On the heels of a handful of “he’s progressing well” reports, the latest on RB Todd Gurley is he won’t be active to start the season, and Tre Mason likely to open the season as their unrivaled starter. This narrative makes a lot more sense given the severity and timing of Gurley’s injury and required rehab. We’ve got them projected with identical carries and we’ll stick with that. Not keen on drafting either guy really. Gurley is going way too high. This news might cool it off a bit, but he’ll continue to go too high for us.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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