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Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy v.2.0 and Steamer Playing Time Adjustments

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Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs

How many projected plate appearances for Chicago Cubs SS Javier Baez in 2019? Steamer had 602, giving us a $20 player, but adjusting to 675 pushes Baez to $25, more in line with his late-1st round pick ADP.

In case you missed the note on Facebook and Twitter earlier this week, we have a version 2.0 of fantasy baseball Draft Buddy ready to download.

The reason for the changes include some minor fixes:

  • drafting players with multiple positions listed on ADP tab did not copy to draft report tab properly
  • team target percentage totals were not flowing correctly from roto tab to hitters-tp and pitchers-tp tabs
  • formula fixes on roto tabs that impacted large leagues
  • a handful of pitchers were on the hitters data tab instead of the pitchers data tab

That was it, not too much, but the last one, a significant enough change in our Draft Buddy player pool for either the hitters or pitchers means it is better to roll out a brand new version to help future projection updates. So, if you already have version 1.0, then please download and replace it with version 2.0.

Oh, and I updated the download page for 2019 to include a tentative projections update schedule. Next update is Thursday this week, and every two weeks through February and every week after that. Plus unscheduled updates as necessary for major news. In case you haven’t heard, there are a couple of key free agents still unsigned.

Copying Data From Version 1.0 to 2.0

Here is a tip if you are mid-draft and want to update versions. Download and set up version 2.0 for your league the same as you currently have for 1.0 so the draft report tabs are identical rounds and picks in each. Then with both files open in Excel, copy just the yellow highlighted cells in your 1.0 and paste them (usually best to paste special > as values) into the same spot on the draft or auction report tab in 2.0.

If that fails – like, you are sure you are hitting Copy (CTRL-C) but the Paste (CTRL-V) just won’t register on the 2.0 side, then close both files, open them again but disable macros. Now the copy should work. Save, close both, re-open 2.0 and enable macros, as you normally would. I have some programming that triggers when to calculate and when to not calculate, to speed up Draft Buddy. This can impact copy-paste from tab to tab, or file to file.

Now lets talk about a bigger change…

Steamer Playing Time Adjustments

We’ve used Steamer projections for a number of years in Draft Buddy and over this time they’ve grown in reputation as a top resource of projected player stats. They are a great start from which to help calculate our fantasy baseball player values.

Steamer uses an algorithm based on prior performance metrics to assess the projected output for all players. However, many players with known – or anticipated – differences in their projected playing time may have projections that are inconsistent with their likely (within a range) innings pitched or plate appearances.

In the past, we relied on Fangraphs for playing time adjustments, the playing time submitted by their large audience of users. As I’ve taken a harder look at the numbers this year, these may not be the best option for us. I noticed a number of outliers in the rankings created by Draft Buddy or Last Player Picked, based on the Steamer projections, and I believe it is a result of the projected playing time.

Javier Baez

$ PA R HR RBI SB AVG
20 602 76 28 88 17 .269
$ PA R HR RBI SB AVG
25 675 85 31 99 19 .269

The top table is Javier Baez dollar value from Last Player Picked using Steamer projections straight from Fangraphs, the last time I pulled those on January 17. A $20 player is a top 30-35 hitter, but not top 15 where he is currently being drafted in the NFBC.

The problem? His plate appearances are only 602. A check of a couple sources project Baez for 675 PA at Roster Resource and 667 PA at Razzball. When I adjust the PA to 675, now he is a $25 player, a value more in line with his ADP.

Brandon Morrow

$ IP W SV K ERA WHIP
8 65 4 36 69 3.46 1.21
$ IP W SV K ERA WHIP
1 36 2 20 38 3.50 1.22

Former Blue Jay Brandon Morrow really stuck out for me because of name recognition, in part, but mostly because at $8 based on the initial Steamer projections he ranked in the top 10 relievers in Draft Buddy. Those projections are with 65 innings of work.

Problem? Morrow hasn’t pitched 65 innings since he was a starter back in 2012. He is expected to miss Opening Day and that was reported way back in early December. Even if he only misses the first month of the season (latest news), the Cubs should manage his innings appropriately. Ratcheting the IP down to just over half to 36 produces a $1 player as shown in the second table.

As you can see, playing time plays a big factor in the projections, and in turn the dollar value output we are getting from Draft Buddy or Last Player Picked which form our rankings. We will discuss playing time projections in more detail through February and March leading up to Opening Day.

MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

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Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds

Andy is back with Round 2 of his do-over fantasy baseball draft. One of the surprises is Cincinnati Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez taken with the 14th overall pick.

Last week I traveled back in time (not literally) to change my draft. In essence, a well-deserved do-over fantasy baseball mock draft round 1.

The first round was not really out of the ordinary but it did have some shakeups compared to Average Draft Position (ADP) from the beginning of the year. The second round has even more surprises.

This is a 12-team snake draft, standard 5×5 roto fantasy baseball league. I include ADP from the start of the year and the first round pick for each slot, after the player I would draft now if I could do it all over again.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

13. Chris Sale Preseason ADP #13, Corey Kluber · 1st Round Pick, Corey Kluber

I could have easily picked an offensive player but the chance of grabbing two stud starting pitchers back-to-back was too good to pass up. Kluber the first choice because of his divisional opponents and his ability to pad stats. Sale this time because he’s a stud, pure and simple. Yes, he does face the AL East, specifically the Yankees, plenty but otherwise dominates on the mound.

14. Eugenio Suarez Preseason ADP #14, Carlos Correa · 1st Round Pick, Aaron Judge

I said this would have some surprises. Going with Judge in the first round really assured me a building block in the outfield. Suarez allows me to do the same in the infield. He’s currently hitting .315 with 19 home runs and 68 RBI’s for a Reds team that is in last place (although if they played the Cubs a little more they might be in first place).

Correa is a popular pick but I am reminded of last year when the Astros didn’t have one hitter with over 100 RBI, and Correa’s numbers weren’t that off the charts. He had 24 home runs and drove in 84 but only stole two bases. Suarez currently is on pace to blow by Correa’s numbers from last year.

15. Paul Goldschmidt Preseason ADP #15, Kris Bryant · 1st Round Pick, Max Scherzer

At this pick I have my stud pitcher with Scherzer and now have a potential steal with the 15th overall pick in Goldschmidt. Goldy is starting to heat up as the D-Backs are finally getting healthy. He’s been on fire this month upping his home runs total to 20 while driving in 51. He’s got a ways to go to match his numbers from last year but he’s on the right track. The thing that makes Goldschmidt such a steal with this pick is the potential for Goldy to steal double digit bags as a first baseman. He needs to run more to make this happen but I’m happy with him at 15.

16. Freddie Freeman Preseason ADP #16, Manny Machado · 1st Round Pick, Luis Severino

The Braves are supposed to win next year, not lead the NL East in 2018. Freeman is a known commodity in fantasy baseball and to the diehard fan but the casual baseball fan may not be familiar with his talents. He’s hitting .315 with 16 home runs and 59 RBI. He also has eligibility at third base which is a big plus as well.

17. Justin Verlander Preseason ADP #17, Joey Votto · 1st Round Pick, Francisco Lindor

OK, I get it – enough pitching already. My strategy is usually to get a top of the line starter in the first two rounds. This year saw a lot of borderline number ones to get gobbled up early and often. Verlander is the pick for me at 17. He’s cooled off a little bit since his blistering start but he still has a 2.05 ERA and 160 punch outs. The nice thing about Verlander is that he’s going to get wins with the Astros and that for me puts him inside the Top 20.

18. Jacob deGrom Preseason ADP #18, Aaron Judge · 1st Round Pick, J.D. Martinez

I can’t be too hypocritical with this pick but having Martinez anchoring my outfield, this would be the best time to get a top of the rotation starter. deGrom is having a 2010 Felix Hernandez, Cy Young-type season. In that season, King Felix was 13-12 for the M’s with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts. deGrom is in a similar situation with the Mets. He’s currently 5-4 with a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The question is, will the Mets trade deGrom to a contending team? If he does, his wins will undoubtedly rise. If he doesn’t, he is still worth drafting in the mid-second round.

19. Javier Baez Preseason ADP #19, Freddie Freeman · 1st Round Pick, Jose Ramirez

I’ll be the first to admit, I never thought I’d be typing Javier Baez as a 19th overall pick in a fantasy baseball draft. I’m not a Javier Baez fan in the least bit. However, I need to put my subjectivity aside and look at the numbers he’s putting up this year.

Baez is clearly the Cubs’ offensive MVP with a stat line of: .291 avg, 17 jacks, 65 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He’s also in the top 20 in runs scored. These numbers make him a solid pick at this point of the draft.

20. Clayton Kershaw Preseason ADP #20, Francisco Lindor · 1st Round Pick, Manny Machado

This pick may surprise some but I can’t in good conscious let Kershaw fall any further. I didn’t like him in the pre-season draft because of his proneness to injury (back). The same verse has been sung again this year. Kershaw missed time due to back issues and therefore won’t make 30 starts again. However, he’s still one of the top 8 starting pitchers in the league and even five months of Kershaw is better than no months at all.

21. Carlos Correa Preseason ADP #21, Anthony Rizzo · 1st Round Pick, Nolan Arenado

Along the same lines of Kershaw, I couldn’t let Correa slide any further. He’s a top three offensive shortstop when healthy and plays on a top team. He’s going to fill at least four of the five offensive categories (maybe not so much stolen bases). This year, he’s been on the DL with back stiffness and according to manager AJ Hinch, won’t be back before the All-Star break (https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Carlos-Correa-return-to-action-up-in-the-13058029.php). He’s a complete steal at pick 21.

22. Charlie Blackmon Preseason ADP #22, Jose Ramirez · 1st Round Pick, Jose Altuve

A potential 1st round pick last year, Blackmon hasn’t been his off the charts self this year. Although selected for the All-Star Game, his average is down considerably since last year (currently .277) and he’s not running much (five stolen bases). However, he does have 17 home runs and is still scoring a lot of runs. Having him at 22 is definite value and matching with Altuve should have this fantasy team near the top in runs scored.

23. Andrew Benintendi Preseason ADP #23, J.D. Martinez · 1st Round Pick, Mookie Betts

Pairing Benintendi with Betts wasn’t planned in the least bit but looking at what was available for value near the turn, I’m happy with this pick. I looked at Rizzo and Bryant and for a potential five category player, Benintendi was too good to pass up. Picking him allows me to not worry about the outfield for a little while.

24. Bryce Harper Preseason ADP #24, Gary Sanchez · 1st Round Pick, Mike Trout

I didn’t think it would end up like this but two of the young stars of baseball will end up on the same team in this do-over draft. Harper started out on fire but has turned ice cold since May. He’s hitting below .200 and isn’t doing a lot to help himself in his free agent year. However, he is among the league leaders in home runs and is near the top of baseball in walks.

So there you have it. The 12 team snake draft do-over. I will have to admit, I really enjoyed doing this a second time and like any good educator, learned from my mistakes from the first draft.

Extra Innings

There are a lot of “snubs” that always come up during the MLB All-Star Game selection process, but I’m not sure there is anything we can do about it. When the All-Star Game is played, you are rewarding players for the first half of the season, or sometimes on name recognition if they are established players and off to a slower than normal start.

Basketball and hockey use the same midseason format. Football maybe got it right (one of the few things) by having their Pro Bowl after the end of the regular season. Although that is more out of necessity, and the Pro Bowl is typically the least interesting of the four major sport all-star events. Perhaps there is no perfect way to have a true all-star game.

I would like to see the game reward players for the entire season, not just the first few months. However, baseball is such a grind that finding players who would: 1) play after a 162 game season, 2) play after the World Series, or 3) play in a meaningless game at the beginning of November, seems near impossible. I am open to ideas to improve the All-Star Game, what do you think?

Buy and Sell Advice for Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Javier Baez, Justin Verlander

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Byron Buxton

It is early but Giles advice is sell Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton. He will not get enough plate appearances batting in the bottom of the order to make the fantasy impact expected of a Top 75 draft pick.

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Toronto is paying more to players sitting in the hospital or on the bench than some smaller market clubs are paying their entire team. This has created some interesting fantasy options, if you navigate it correctly. Troy Tulowitzki is on the 60-day DL and Josh Donaldson can’t throw a ball due to the ominous sounding injury – dead arm.

Dead arm is a shoulder ailment usually associated with pitchers not fielders. This injury has been nagging Donaldson throughout spring training, although it really came to light Opening Day, and it is worrisome that he hasn’t been able recover.

Donaldson is a major concern because he was drafted in the third round and is already hurt. I often wish in a case like this the team would put the player on the DL and let him heal. Long term that would give you better fantasy numbers. Instead Toronto moved Donaldson to DH.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold on to Donaldson for now and hope he recovers and gives you the season you invested in. If you try and sell you are going to get pennies on the dollar. I wouldn’t look to buy either, as I don’t have faith Donaldson will rebound over the short term and I am unsure of his long term prognosis.

Yangervis Solarte, TOR

The big winner as a result of the injury troubles in Toronto is Yangervis Solarte. Solarte has always been a better real baseball player than a fantasy option, but he showed promise in San Diego in 2016 slashing .286/.341/.467.

An oblique injury in 2017 sidelined him for a month and slowed his growth. Solarte also struggled to get the ball over the fence in Petco Park, one of the worst batters parks out there. I was intrigued when the Blue Jays gave up two valuable prospects to acquire Solarte. With all the injuries Solarte will likely bat cleanup and offers multi-position flexibility.

Rogers Centre isn’t known as a great home run park but will be a big step up from Petco. Solarte hit his first home run on Saturday and already drove in a couple of RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
He is 76 percent owned in CBS leagues, but I imagine his owners don’t know what they have. Look to add him for the short term, especially if you need to replace Ian Kinsler or haven’t yet found a viable spot holder for Daniel Murphy.

Byron Buxton, MIN

Byron Buxton is batting 8th right now, and that should worry all Buxton owners. He is batting far lower in the order than any other batter with a Top 75 average draft position. If Buxton doesn’t move up in the order soon then you overpaid for him.

The only way a player can hit home runs, steal bases and drive in runs is to get up to bat. That is opportunity, and opportunity is very valuable for fantasy baseball success.

Guys who bat at the bottom of the order lose plate appearances. Joe Douglas at RotoGraphs calculated that each drop in the order costs a player 14 PA over a season. To realize how much it hurts a player, understand that a player batting eighth loses at least 100 plate appearances during the season when compared to the heart of the lineup.

So Buxton faces a greater uphill battle to fantasy superstardom than just stealing bases and hitting home runs. The only way Buxton moves up in the lineup is to cut his K-rate and increase his on-base percentage

He isn’t off to a great start, striking out 4 times in his first 11 trips to the plate. I think Buxton can do enough to jump Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar in the order, but it is a stretch to assume Buxton will take over leadoff duties this year, an ideal position for someone with Buxton’s speed.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I would look to sell any shares you have while the optimists look past the looming troubles. If you’re lucky you may be able to trade Buxton for Tommy Pham or Whit Merrifield. Both have lower ceilings than Buxton, but are batting second and have a higher floor.

Javier Baez, CHC

The Cubs played a 17 inning game Friday night. If they do that often enough the Cubs will have enough at-bats for all their players. That is the best hope you have for getting the numbers you expected from Javier Baez. Assuming the Cubs play mostly the more traditional nine inning games then Baez faces the same dilemma as Buxton.

Playing for the Cubs is a blessing and a curse. Baez plays for a very good Cubs team and every guy in the lineup hits and gets on base. By virtue of being a Cub, Baez drove in 75 RBI and scored 75 times in 2017. Baez also showed enough power and speed to hit 23 home runs while swiping 10 bags.

However, I am not sure if Baez can repeat those numbers. The biggest problem Baez faces is plate appearances. The Cubs have too many players deserving of every day at-bats. Joe Maddon did a great job utilizing each player last year, but finding AB for Baez, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Albert Almora and Jason Heyward isn’t easy.

Happ offers the most potential and will see the most playing time. This really hurts Baez in fantasy, because he loses 20 or more starts this year. He sat on Saturday so Zobrist could get a day at second base. This will be a regular occurrence all season.

Baez further hurts himself with a 28 percent strikeout rate and .276 OBP. On Opening Day Maddon slotted Baez in as the 8th batter and that isn’t likely to change unless he can get on base more regularly. As noted with Buxton, the lower a player bats in the order the fewer PA they receive over a season.

When you combine the position competition with his low place in the order, Baez becomes a guy you don’t want on your team. It isn’t difficult imagining Baez only getting 500 AB. If this happens he could score 15 fewer runs and drive in 15 fewer RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
Baez has strong name recognition and looked good last year, so it isn’t too late to trade him away. It may be a reach, but I would offer Baez for Rich Hill or Trevor Bauer and then pick up the earlier mentioned Solarte or Tim Anderson off the waiver wire to fill your middle infield position. Anderson is off to a quick start and only 50 percent owned in CBS leagues at the time of writing this.

Justin Verlander, HOU

Justin Verlander had a good start on Opening Day. He didn’t allow any runs through six innings of work, while striking out five in a respectable 90 pitches. Several analysts had Verlander slotted as a bust this year. Both SI and Rotoballer cited Verlander’s 2017 xFIP as an omen of things to come. However, recall there was a night and day difference in Verlander’s stats between his Detroit and Houston games last year.

In 2017, Verlander’s first half xFIP was an unattractive 5.03, but his second half dropped to 3.28. Few pitchers improve as the season rolls along, so Verlander’s numbers are notable. Verlander talked often about Houston’s advanced analytics helping him improve, and Houston’s brain trust was hard at work when they used that wild shift against Joey Gallo.

I think we may see Verlander’s best season since 2011. Verlander wasn’t perfect in his first start, but with Houston’s talent backing him up in the field and driving in runs at the plate we may see Verlander’s first 20 win season in 7 years. That will be accompanied with the usual strike outs and a sub-3.50 ERA.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
His price may be higher now than draft day, but if you are looking to trade for an ace then Verlander could still have the lowest price out there. If you own him then hold tight. You can sleep well knowing you acquired a 35-year-old starting pitcher who looks more robot than man these days.