My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Los Angeles Angels are facing a RHP at home (Jacob Turner DET who has faced 35 batters). On FanDuel the Angels are currently putting up 2.37 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Jacob Turner is currently allowing 196% more PPA than the MLB average (2.114 PPA). Their modified PPA is 4.64 (2.37 x 196%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.114 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.613 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP at home | Jacob Turner DET | 35 | 2.37 x 196% | 4.64 | +2.27 | 1.79 x 188% | 3.36 | +1.57 |
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LHP on road | Jason Vargas NYM | 223 | 2.09 x 146% | 3.06 | +0.97 | 1.63 x 144% | 2.35 | +0.72 |
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LHP at home | Drew Pomeranz BOS | 219 | 2.09 x 133% | 2.78 | +0.69 | 1.60 x 130% | 2.08 | +0.48 |
 |
RHP on road | Marcus Stroman TOR | 371 | 2.33 x 113% | 2.63 | +0.30 | 1.77 x 112% | 1.98 | +0.21 |
 |
RHP at home | Alex Cobb BAL | 493 | 2.01 x 128% | 2.57 | +0.56 | 1.55 x 127% | 1.97 | +0.42 |
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RHP at home | Felix Hernandez SEA | 522 | 2.28 x 115% | 2.62 | +0.34 | 1.71 x 113% | 1.93 | +0.23 |
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RHP on road | Bartolo Colon TEX | 522 | 2.10 x 118% | 2.48 | +0.38 | 1.62 x 119% | 1.92 | +0.31 |
 |
RHP on road | Chad Bettis COL | 409 | 2.18 x 112% | 2.44 | +0.26 | 1.67 x 111% | 1.85 | +0.18 |
 |
RHP on road | Pablo Lopez MIA | 142 | 2.14 x 108% | 2.31 | +0.17 | 1.63 x 108% | 1.76 | +0.13 |
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RHP on road | Reynaldo Lopez CHW | 557 | 2.17 x 107% | 2.33 | +0.16 | 1.64 x 106% | 1.74 | +0.10 |
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LHP at home | Clayton Richard SDP | 586 | 2.11 x 107% | 2.26 | +0.15 | 1.60 x 105% | 1.68 | +0.08 |
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RHP at home | Nick Pivetta PHI | 483 | 2.10 x 107% | 2.24 | +0.14 | 1.59 x 106% | 1.69 | +0.10 |
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RHP at home | Jameson Taillon PIT | 522 | 2.34 x 92% | 2.16 | -0.18 | 1.78 x 94% | 1.67 | -0.11 |
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RHP at home | Sal Romano CIN | 511 | 1.81 x 115% | 2.07 | +0.27 | 1.39 x 114% | 1.59 | +0.20 |
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LHP at home | Sean Newcomb ATL | 490 | 2.30 x 87% | 1.99 | -0.30 | 1.74 x 86% | 1.49 | -0.24 |
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RHP on road | Carlos Carrasco CLE | 497 | 2.06 x 94% | 1.94 | -0.12 | 1.56 x 95% | 1.49 | -0.07 |
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LHP on road | Andrew Heaney LAA | 505 | 2.01 x 96% | 1.93 | -0.07 | 1.54 x 96% | 1.48 | -0.06 |
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RHP on road | Tyler Glasnow TBR | 254 | 1.94 x 100% | 1.95 | +0.01 | 1.49 x 98% | 1.46 | -0.03 |
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LHP at home | Rich Hill LAD | 319 | 1.96 x 97% | 1.90 | -0.06 | 1.49 x 98% | 1.45 | -0.04 |
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RHP on road | Brad Keller KCR | 344 | 2.24 x 84% | 1.88 | -0.36 | 1.71 x 85% | 1.46 | -0.25 |
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LHP at home | Adalberto Mejia MIN | 74 | 2.42 x 73% | 1.77 | -0.65 | 1.83 x 76% | 1.40 | -0.43 |
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LHP at home | CC Sabathia NYY | 470 | 1.74 x 99% | 1.73 | -0.01 | 1.36 x 100% | 1.36 | +0.00 |
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RHP on road | Zack Greinke ARI | 571 | 2.00 x 85% | 1.70 | -0.30 | 1.53 x 87% | 1.34 | -0.19 |
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RHP on road | Chase Anderson MIL | 488 | 1.76 x 97% | 1.70 | -0.06 | 1.37 x 96% | 1.32 | -0.05 |
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LHP on road | Sean Manaea OAK | 569 | 1.94 x 87% | 1.68 | -0.26 | 1.47 x 88% | 1.29 | -0.18 |
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LHP at home | Mike Montgomery CHC | 394 | 1.77 x 92% | 1.63 | -0.14 | 1.39 x 94% | 1.31 | -0.09 |
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RHP on road | Max Scherzer WSN | 606 | 2.19 x 76% | 1.66 | -0.53 | 1.67 x 77% | 1.28 | -0.39 |
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RHP at home | Miles Mikolas STL | 554 | 1.86 x 76% | 1.42 | -0.44 | 1.45 x 79% | 1.15 | -0.30 |
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