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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Tuesday August 7

August 7, 2018 By Chris Spencer Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Los Angeles Angels are facing a RHP at home (Jacob Turner DET who has faced 35 batters). On FanDuel the Angels are currently putting up 2.37 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Jacob Turner is currently allowing 196% more PPA than the MLB average (2.114 PPA). Their modified PPA is 4.64 (2.37 x 196%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.114 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.613
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Angels RHP at home Jacob Turner DET 35 2.37 x 196% 4.64 +2.27 1.79 x 188% 3.36 +1.57
Reds LHP on road Jason Vargas NYM 223 2.09 x 146% 3.06 +0.97 1.63 x 144% 2.35 +0.72
Blue Jays LHP at home Drew Pomeranz BOS 219 2.09 x 133% 2.78 +0.69 1.60 x 130% 2.08 +0.48
Red Sox RHP on road Marcus Stroman TOR 371 2.33 x 113% 2.63 +0.30 1.77 x 112% 1.98 +0.21
Rays RHP at home Alex Cobb BAL 493 2.01 x 128% 2.57 +0.56 1.55 x 127% 1.97 +0.42
Rangers RHP at home Felix Hernandez SEA 522 2.28 x 115% 2.62 +0.34 1.71 x 113% 1.93 +0.23
Mariners RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 522 2.10 x 118% 2.48 +0.38 1.62 x 119% 1.92 +0.31
Pirates RHP on road Chad Bettis COL 409 2.18 x 112% 2.44 +0.26 1.67 x 111% 1.85 +0.18
Cardinals RHP on road Pablo Lopez MIA 142 2.14 x 108% 2.31 +0.17 1.63 x 108% 1.76 +0.13
Yankees RHP on road Reynaldo Lopez CHW 557 2.17 x 107% 2.33 +0.16 1.64 x 106% 1.74 +0.10
Brewers LHP at home Clayton Richard SDP 586 2.11 x 107% 2.26 +0.15 1.60 x 105% 1.68 +0.08
Diamondbacks RHP at home Nick Pivetta PHI 483 2.10 x 107% 2.24 +0.14 1.59 x 106% 1.69 +0.10
Rockies RHP at home Jameson Taillon PIT 522 2.34 x 92% 2.16 -0.18 1.78 x 94% 1.67 -0.11
Mets RHP at home Sal Romano CIN 511 1.81 x 115% 2.07 +0.27 1.39 x 114% 1.59 +0.20
Nationals LHP at home Sean Newcomb ATL 490 2.30 x 87% 1.99 -0.30 1.74 x 86% 1.49 -0.24
Twins RHP on road Carlos Carrasco CLE 497 2.06 x 94% 1.94 -0.12 1.56 x 95% 1.49 -0.07
Tigers LHP on road Andrew Heaney LAA 505 2.01 x 96% 1.93 -0.07 1.54 x 96% 1.48 -0.06
Orioles RHP on road Tyler Glasnow TBR 254 1.94 x 100% 1.95 +0.01 1.49 x 98% 1.46 -0.03
Athletics LHP at home Rich Hill LAD 319 1.96 x 97% 1.90 -0.06 1.49 x 98% 1.45 -0.04
Cubs RHP on road Brad Keller KCR 344 2.24 x 84% 1.88 -0.36 1.71 x 85% 1.46 -0.25
Indians LHP at home Adalberto Mejia MIN 74 2.42 x 73% 1.77 -0.65 1.83 x 76% 1.40 -0.43
White Sox LHP at home CC Sabathia NYY 470 1.74 x 99% 1.73 -0.01 1.36 x 100% 1.36 +0.00
Phillies RHP on road Zack Greinke ARI 571 2.00 x 85% 1.70 -0.30 1.53 x 87% 1.34 -0.19
Padres RHP on road Chase Anderson MIL 488 1.76 x 97% 1.70 -0.06 1.37 x 96% 1.32 -0.05
Dodgers LHP on road Sean Manaea OAK 569 1.94 x 87% 1.68 -0.26 1.47 x 88% 1.29 -0.18
Royals LHP at home Mike Montgomery CHC 394 1.77 x 92% 1.63 -0.14 1.39 x 94% 1.31 -0.09
Braves RHP on road Max Scherzer WSN 606 2.19 x 76% 1.66 -0.53 1.67 x 77% 1.28 -0.39
Marlins RHP at home Miles Mikolas STL 554 1.86 x 76% 1.42 -0.44 1.45 x 79% 1.15 -0.30

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

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