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Miami Dolphins Team Report

June 20, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Miami Dolphins RB Lamar Miller doesn't have a lot of competition for touches behind him. Or does he, from rookie Jay Ajayi, and can Miller handle a bigger workload?

Miami Dolphins RB Lamar Miller doesn’t have a lot of competition for touches behind him. Or does he, from rookie Jay Ajayi, and can Miller handle a bigger workload?

Ryan Tannehill

The Dolphins said they viewed Tannehill as an ascending talent when they announced his six-year, $95.3-million contract extension and fantasy minds want to know whether that applies to his fantasy prospects. Hey, why not? Tannehill has improved in almost every major offensive category since entering the league as a 1st round pick in 2012, finishing last season with career highs in completions (392), yards (4,045), touchdown passes (27) and rushing yards (317) while throwing for just 12 interceptions. He clearly adapted well to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s system and should show continued improvement in 2015. Helping matters is the offensive talent that surrounds him, with the Dolphins revamping their group of wide receivers to feature Jarvis Landry, Kenny Stills, 1st round pick Devante Parker and veteran Greg Jennings, as well as signing tight end Jordan Cameron in free agency. The one wart in Tannehill’s game has been his inability to connect on deep passes. We rate him as a mid-tier QB1 with upside.

RB Lamar Miller

Three seasons into his career with the Dolphins, Miller has increased his rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receptions and reception yards in every season. Last season, he finished the year as the 9th ranked fantasy running back with 1,099 rushing yards, 275 receiving yards and nine total touchdowns. Looking forward to 2015, the question is whether Miami will increase his usage which would also increase his chances of emerging as an elite fantasy option. Rookie 5th round pick Jay Ajayi seems like the only option on the depth chart likely to challenge Miller for touches in a meaningful way, but it’s worth remembering that journeyman Daniel Thomas and youngster Damien Williams were Miller’s major challengers for touches last season when he averaged 15.9 touches per game and never had 20 carries in a game. While offseason reports indicate that Miller has gained weight in order to handle a bigger workload, we don’t expect that he will surpass 300 touches and given his inability to bust many big plays despite his outstanding speed, Miller rates as a mid to upper tier RB2 next season.

RB Jay Ajayi

With Lamar Miller entering a contract year and little depth at running back, the Dolphins used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft to acquire Jay Ajayi. Most draft observers felt that he was a steal at that point in the draft and with little competition for touches behind Miller, Ajayi should earn some type of meaningful role as a rookie in 2015. How big will the role be? Since Miller has earned the lead back role, Ajayi will likely spell him with 8-10 touches per game and there is a chance that he could emerge as the team’s goal line back. He rates as a solid handcuff in 2015 and is a mid to upper tier prospect for dynasty purposes.

WR DeVante Parker

Having had enough of the Mike Wallace show, the Dolphins chose Louisville product DeVante Parker with the 14th overall selection in this year’s NFL Draft. At 6’3″ and 208 pounds and blessed with outstanding speed, Parker has the talent to emerge as one of the league’s leading wide receivers. In Miami, he rates as the only player on the team’s depth chart who has that type of potential so after the draft, we were expecting the Dolphins to make him a big part of their offensive package early in his rookie season. However, offseason foot surgery has put a damper on those expectations as well as the Dolphins plans for him in 2015. While they still expect that he will be ready for training camp, the truth is that Parker isn’t quite polished enough to emerge as a consistent threat early as a rookie after missing time in the offseason. While we rate him as an elite dynasty prospect, for re-draft purposes he is an intriguing WR4/5 who could supply solid production over the last half of the season. The only caveat here is quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s lack of touch on the deep ball.

WR Jarvis Landry

Taken in the 2nd round of the 2014 NFL Draft, Landry seemed to be a reach given his lack of size (5’11” and 205 pounds) and decent but not explosive speed (40 yard time of 4.51). Sure enough, he put up solid, yet pedestrian production as a rookie, hauling in 84 of his 112 targets (impressive) for 758 yards (YPR of 9.0, not impressive) and five touchdowns (marginally impressive). While Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson won’t return, they have been replaced by Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and 1st round pick DeVante Parker, all threats on the outside. That means Landry will operate out of the slot once again in 2015 except his competition for touches there will now come from tight end Jordan Cameron, a clear upgrade over Charles Clay. Consider Landry an uninspiring WR4 with little upside in redraft formats and a middling dynasty prospect at best.

WR Kenny Stills

Two years into his career, the question with Stills is whether he has the ability to develop into a solid all around wide receiver or if he is little more than a deep threat. We know what the Saints view is since they traded him after two productive seasons during which he totaled 95 receptions for 1,572 yards and eight touchdowns, including 931 yards last season, for a 3rd round pick and a linebacker who was likely going to be released in Dannell Ellerbe. In Miami, Stills figures to fulfill much the same role that he did during his stay in New Orleans as an intermediate and deep threat. While we like Stills and what he did at the conclusion of last season (32 receptions on 41 targets for 500 yards and a score during his final six games), he faces an uphill battle to garner enough touches to breakout given the presence of Jarvis Landry, 1st round pick DeVante Parker and tight end Jordan Cameron. He rates as a mid-tier WR4 with upside.

WR Greg Jennings

Just two years after signing Greg Jennings to a five-year, $45-million contract with the Vikings, Minnesota released the 31-year old wide receiver due to his lack of production and large salary cap figure for the 2015 season. With few suitors in free agency, Jennings was left to sign with the Dolphins to provide insurance and veteran leadership to a young group of wide receivers. While Jennings may open the season in the starting line-up, it is only a matter of times before his targets dry up in favor of more explosive options such as Kenny Stills, rookie 1st round pick DeVante Parker and solid, 2nd year slot receiver Jarvis Landry.

TE Jordan Cameron

After a four-year stay in Cleveland that produced just one solid season, Cameron joins the Dolphins in 2015 hoping to replicate his career season from 2013 when he caught 80 passes for 917 yards and seven touchdowns. He suffered through an injury-plagued, unproductive season a year ago, appearing in just 10 games and catching 24 passes for 424 yards and a pair of touchdowns. At his best, Cameron is a 6’5″, 245 pound seam stretching tight end capable of producing big plays. However, he hasn’t been a consistent producer due to injuries, mainly concussions. In Miami, he seems to be an ideal fit in a passing attack that features a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill who is capable of hitting short and intermediate passes but who struggles on deep throws. If Cameron can stay healthy, he rates as a mid-tier TE1 with upside. But if you nab him in your fantasy draft, make sure to acquire an upper tier TE2 as insurance.

Also see: Miami Dolphins IDP Team Report | New York Jets

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Minnesota Vikings Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

June 27, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (84) in action during a football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. December 22, 2013; Photographer: MSA/Icon Sportswire

Can Norv Turner do for Cordarrelle Patterson what he helped do for Josh Gordon last season? Patterson remains a raw product but has major upside. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player Tier · Rank Passing Rushing Receiving FPts
QB T. Bridgewater
8 · 29th
240-415-3,000 14 TD 13 INT
35-125 1 TD
–
224.5
QB M. Cassel
9 · 35th
65-110-750 3 TD 3 INT
4-20 0 TD
–
51.5
RB A. Peterson
1 · 3rd –
305-1,445 10 TD
50-420 2 TD
258.5
RB J. McKinnon
NR –
20-80 0 TD
9-80 0 TD
16.0
RB M. Asiata
NR –
50-175 0 TD
6-35 0 TD
21.0
WR C. Patterson
3 · 15th – –
65-870 6 TD
123.0
WR G. Jennings
8 · 44th – –
62-765 3 TD
94.5
WR J. Simpson
NR – –
35-535 2 TD
65.5
WR J. Wright
NR – –
18-250 1 TD
31.0
TE K. Rudolph
4 · 17th – –
50-550 4 TD
79.0
TE R. Ellison
NR – –
9-90 0 TD
9.0

Data as of June 26 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Matt Cassel

If he isn’t ready then the Vikings won’t rush Teddy Bridgewater, the team’s 1st round pick in this year’s draft, into the starting lineup, leaving Cassel the likely starter on opening day. It’s anyone’s guess as to how long he will hold onto the job. However, with the Vikings a near consensus pick to finish 4th in the NFC North, it seems likely Bridgewater will take over under center by the season’s midpoint. If Cassel hasn’t already proven that he has little fantasy value, Bridgewater’s presence should end that debate.

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Taken in the 1st round of this year’s NFL Draft, Bridgewater clearly represents the future for the Vikings at quarterback. The only question is how quickly the future arrives. Considered a potential top five pick in the NFL, Bridgewater’s status plummeted after a poor pro day, allowing Minnesota to draft him with the last pick of the 1st round. The Louisville product has decent size and escape ability, but needs to work on his accuracy and lacks elite arm strength. Nonetheless, he represents a clear upgrade over incumbents Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder. With a solid yet unspectacular cast of receiving options, and Adrian Peterson in the backfield, Bridgewater doesn’t rank as roster worthy even if he opens the season in the starting lineup. He does rank as a solid prospect in dynasty formats.

RB Adrian Peterson

One year after nearly breaking Eric Dickerson’s NFL single season rushing record, Adrian Peterson’s perceived fantasy value has taken a huge hit. Despite averaging over 100 total yards per game and finding pay dirt 11 times in 14 games, fantasy pundits seem to be expressing plenty of concern about his durability and ability to bounce back from an “off” season. It says here that reports of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. First off, Peterson posted 1,266 rushing yards and 171 receiving yards in what amounted to 12 games and parts of two others (he had just 22 touches combined in those two games). Secondly, hamstring, groin and foot injuries limited his effectiveness in several games last season. While offseason groin surgery is concerning, his performance in 2012 after suffering a torn ACL provides plenty of assurance regarding his body’s ability to return from injury. New offensive coordinator Norv Turner knows how to get the most out of a running back so look for Peterson to have a big year in 2014, with increased production in the passing game. Turner has stated that he wants to get Peterson the ball in space so look for him to catch at least 40 passes (his career high was 43 set back in 2009). While there might be plenty of talk about Peterson’s potential demise, it’s hard to forecast him being taken later than the 3rd overall pick in many fantasy drafts.

RB Matt Asiata

Although the Vikings used a 3rd round pick on Jerick McKinnon, Asiata is more likely to assume a heavy workload if Adrian Peterson were to be lost to injury given his bigger size. He was respectable subbing in for AP during Weeks 15 and 17 last year, totaling 44 carries for 166 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, Asiata has an extremely limited upside and brings little playmaking ability to the table. At best, you could say he gets what is blocked. The truth is that he isn’t good enough to attract attention from opposing defenses and that likely helps his fantasy value as a handcuff. With Asiata in the lead to back up Peterson, AP owners should grab him with a late round pick on draft day.

RB Jerick McKinnon

The Vikings used a late 3rd round pick to acquire McKinnon and it seems that was a bit of a reach. While McKinnon clocked in at 4.41 in the 40 at the combine, he is on the small size at 5’9” and 209 pounds and wasn’t great at making tacklers miss during his career at Georgia Southern. He also failed to catch many passes in college, totaling just 10. As a rookie, McKinnon will compete with Matt Asiata for the crumbs that Adrian Peterson leaves behind. If he wins that battle, AP owners will want to add him to their rosters late in their drafts.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Taken in the 1st round of the 2012 draft, Patterson contributed little during the Vikings first 12 games before filling up the stat sheet during their final four contests with 215 receiving yards, three receiving touchdowns, 129 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Patterson’s obvious playmaking ability and his lack of competition for targets amongst Minnesota’s receivers makes him an obvious breakout candidate but there are no guarantees that will happen in 2013. There are some red flags to be sure. First off, Patterson will be learning a new offense with Norv Turner now in Minnesota. While he may be a good fit in Turner’s offense given his size and speed, Patterson remains a raw product, having caught just 45 of his 78 targets last season despite a high proportion of them coming on short and intermediate routes. And we haven’t even gotten to the Vikings quarterback situation. Consider Patterson a mid-tier WR3 with major upside but keep in mind that he is going to have weeks that are going to hurt your fantasy squad given that a decent portion of his fantasy production comes on running plays.

WR Greg Jennings

After moving from the Green Bay Packers to the division rival Vikings, Jennings had an uneven season during his first year in Minnesota. Expected to assume the number one wide receiver position, Jennings caught 68 passes for just 804 yards and four touchdowns. At 30 years of age (31 in September), Jennings has now failed to top 1,000 receiving yards for three straight seasons and is unlikely to hit that milestone in 2014. While the Vikings subpar play at quarterback can be blamed for some of his troubles, that situation isn’t expected to see drastic improvement this season and it is worth noting that 43.5 of Jennings 104.4 fantasy points came in two games last season. In his other 13 games, he amassed just 549 yards and one touchdown. Given that Jennings lacks the size that new offensive coordinator Norv Turner prefers in his receiver, it won’t be a surprise if this is his last year as a Viking. Consider him a low end WR4.

WR Jerome Simpson

The quintessential one-trick pony, Simpson is purely a deep threat capable of stretching defenses with his speed. In his 2nd season in Minnesota, he posted respectable numbers, catching 48 passes for 726 yards and one score, although it took him 100 targets to get there. That’s not very efficient, folks. But that shouldn’t come as a surprise since Simpson has failed to catch more than 50% of his targets for three consecutive years. It’s also worth noting that, despite his outstanding speed, Simpson has just five touchdowns out of his 124 receptions over the past three years. With Cordarrelle Patterson ascending to the starting line up and Greg Jennings lining up opposite him, Simpson figures to see a reduction in usage in 2014, rendering him more or less useless from a fantasy perspective.

WR Jarius Wright

Having traded Percy Harvin to the Seahawks, Wright seemed destined for a larger role in 2013 working out of the slot. Unfortunately, the 5’10”, 182 pound 2012 4th round pick only saw a minimal increase in his targets with 43 compared to 36 during his rookie season. Although Wright has hauled in 48 of his 79 targets (a respectable completion rate of 60.8%) for 744 yards (averaging a solid 15.5 yards per reception) and five touchdowns, he hasn’t been given a larger role even with Greg Jennings and Jerome Simpson having their struggles in 2013. New offensive coordinator Norv Turner doesn’t have a reputation of making diminutive slot receivers key cogs in his offense which limits Wright’s upside. He isn’t worth owning in redraft formats.

TE Kyle Rudolph

Will Rudolph’s name be added to the long list of tight ends that have flourished in Norv Turner’s offense? Good question. On the one hand, Jay Novacek caught balls from Troy Aikman and Antonio Gates had Philip Rivers at quarterback. On the other, Jordan Cameron was productive during Turner’s only season in Cleveland with a cast of journeyman quarterbacks. The Cameron situation more closely approximates Rudolph’s although it would be foolhardy to suggest that his ability as a receiver matches Cameron’s. If you’re reading the tea leaves here, you can see where we’re headed. While Rudolph is clearly worth taking a flier on as your TE2, we’re not predicting a breakout season for him or even TE1 status. Keep in mind that this is a player that has never topped 500 receiving yards during his three years in the league.

Also see: Chicago Bears | Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers
 

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Week 8 Buy Low, Sell High

October 29, 2009 By Dave 2 Comments

Hey, we’ve got a new category this week and it’s Sell Now. And it’s reserved for a special guy – Larry Johnson of the Chiefs – because special guys like him deserve special categories. Maybe the category should be called Some People Never Learn. Or perhaps Is This Guy Living In The 20th Century? I could go on…

Great opportunities this week and with league trade deadlines now getting closer, it’s time to jump in. As they say in real estate, it’s better to set the market than to chase it, especially in dynasty leagues. Giddy up.

Buy Low

  • Steven Jackson, Rams – Jackson has the Lions this week who may be without Calvin Johnson. If the Rams are going to win a game this year, this may be it. Jackson knows it and he’s going to run determined. Expect him to run all over a soft Lions defense. Disclaimer: Rams are my team so there may be some bias here. Anyway, if you like Jackson and the fact he is 4th in the league in total yards per game and can’t possibly keep avoiding the end zone, buy now before he obliterates the Lions.
  • Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, Cardinals – Boldin has a high ankle sprain so he is defiinitely a buy low candidate given the concerns about his availability. However, all Cardinals weapons in the passing game are solid options the rest of the way due to their ridiculously easy schedule. After this week’s game against the league’s top ranked pass defense (Carolina), the Cardinals don’t face a pass defense ranked in the top half of the league. Their schedule during the fantasy playoffs include the 49ers, Lions and Rams. This one’s a no-brainer.
  • Carson Palmer, Bengals – Palmer looked rusty for much of this season until the Bengals blowout win this week over the Bears when he went 20 of 24 for 233 yards and 5 TD. Not a bad days work. If you subscribe to the theory that Palmer’s poor performance over much of his team’s first 6 games was due to rust from missing most of last season and that he’s now back to his Pro Bowl form, then it’s time to buy in. As an added incentive, after this week’s bye the Bengals face 4 pass defenses ranked 21st or lower and don’t have a single game against a top 10 pass defense.
  • Greg Jennings, Packers – Another game, another ho-hum TD-less performance from Jennings, this time against the sad-sack Browns. At this point, he’s on pace to finish the season with 950 receiving yards and just 2 TD. The Packers don’t face a top 10 pass defense the rest of the way so look for the Jennings magic to return soon. Like SJax, if his owner is fixated on the lack of touchdowns, then it’s time to jump into the fray with a below market offer.

Sell High

  • Thomas Jones, Jets – Jones has put up remarkable fantasy points this season courtesy of 7 touchdowns in 7 games. With Leon Washington out for the season and rookie Shonn Greene not able to replace Washington’s pass receiving ability, Jones figures to get increased touches the rest of the way. Heck, even his schedule is favorable so why sell high? Basically, if somebody is willing to sell the farm for Jones under the assumption that things will only get better for him given his situation, then you should be selling. I just don’t see him finishing the season with 1,400-plus yards and averaging a touchdown a game.
  • Tony Romo, Cowboys – After 7 games, Romo has had 3 solid fantasy outings and 3 poor ones. The solid outings were against soft pass defenses – Bucs, Chiefs and Falcons. The duds were against solid pass defenses – Giants, Panthers and Broncos. Between now and the end of the fantasy playoffs, Romo faces 5 top ten pass defenses and of the other 5 games, the lowest ranked pass defense is the 16th ranked Seahawks. Basically, if the Romo formula of bad games against good pass defenses continues, Romo’s going to be putting up some duds the rest of the way. So, are you on the side of history or not?
  • Kyle Orton, Broncos – Orton has been surprisingly effective as a fantasy starter this season but the road ahead isn’t a pretty one. The Broncos face 4 top 10 defenses over the next 9 weeks and the only patsy on the schedule is the Chiefs in week 13 unless you consider the Ravens game this week an easy one. If Orton is your starter, it’s time to package him and a backup WR or RB for a more servicable starter at quarterback.

Sell Now

  • Larry Johnson, Chiefs – He’s been suspended for 2 weeks and it’s highly doubtful that he will play another game for the Chiefs. Basically, this is a case of taking 10 cents on the dollar and being happy about it. If a team desperate for running back help is offering up a WR4 or even less, then take it and be glad you did.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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