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The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational Draft Recap #TGFBI

March 3, 2019 By Chris Spencer 2 Comments

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational

Who will bring home the coveted TGFBI crown in 2019?

During the 2018 offseason, Justin Mason of FanGraphs, Friends With Fantasy Benefits and Fantasy Alarm organized a new industry league, The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. TGFBI is a series of 5X5 15-team mixed leagues using the standard NFBC lineup: 14 hitters (including 2 catchers), 9 pitchers and 7 bench spots; no disabled list / injured list.

Last year there were 195 fantasy baseball writers distributed into 13 different leagues. Similar to the NFBC Main Event, Mason included an overall competition component to the event. The overall standings were compiled from 195 points to 1 point for each of the ten fantasy categories. Clay Link of RotoWire emerged as the overall champ last season.

TGFBI grew significantly for 2019! There are 315 writers forming 21 leagues. Yours truly made it in just before the cutoff and was assigned to League 21. The slow draft started on Sunday, February 24th. Gather around kids and listen to the tale of my draft, so far.

Pre-Draft Prep

  • I pick from the 10th slot. You can follow along checking the online draft board.
  • I set up Draft Buddy choosing the ATC projections. Ariel Cohen’s approach is the way I would compile average projections if I did them.
  • I refer to my Target Percentages philosophy / method in this draft recap.

Using last season’s data I determined the target levels needed for hitting are 294 homeruns, 1,051 runs, 1,011 RBI, 137 stolen bases and a .263 batting average. For pitching 93 wins, 79 saves, 1,440 strike outs, a 3.57 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. These are an average of 3rd and 4th place in each category. Hitting these target numbers should get me about 125 roto points and enough to win my league.

Now, on to the draft picks.

Pick 1.10, 10th overall – SP Chris Sale

With the 10th pick I knew that Trout, Betts, Scherzer, Ramirez, Martinez, Arenado, Yelich and Acuna would be gone. If one of them happened to fall to me I would pounce like a dog on a bone. So, in my head this pick is between Trea Turner, Jake deGrom and Chris Sale.

First, choosing between deGrom and Sale. Although deGrom is going before Sale in most drafts, I am firmly in the Sale camp. Here’s why: Sale gives you a much better edge in WHIP than deGrom (or any other pitcher for that matter). Also, deGrom was lucky last season so, while still a very good pitcher, I am cautious drafting him this season.

Pitcher W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
deGrom 16% 0% 17% 3.25 2.75

So it boils down to Sale versus Turner. Maybe it is me, but I’m not as high on Turner as many seem to be. Out of curiosity I wanted to know how he performed with Bryce Harper out of the lineup (because you may have heard that Harper ain’t coming back to the Nation’s capital).

Over the past two seasons there were 35 games Turner played while Harper was not in the lineup. In those games he hit .267/.327/.445 with 4 HR, 16 RBI and 9 stolen bases. Compare that to what ATC is projecting:

Name G R HR RBI SB AVG
w/o Harper (prorated) 151 99 17 69 39 0.267
ATC Projection 151 98 19 73 43 0.282

More or less the same outside of batting average. Well, this is enough to give me pause. I changed Turner’s projections to match the prorated numbers and re-compiled Draft Buddy to see the effect it would have on his value. He went down from $24 to $21. Welcome to the team, Chris Sale!

Pick 2.06, 21st overall – 1B Freddie Freeman

With pitching out of the way, I need a bat. The next group of batters and their target percentage contributions from Draft Buddy:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Stanton 14% 9% 11% 3% 0.25
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Goldschmidt 11% 9% 10% 7% 2.00
Machado 12% 8% 10% 8% 1.75
Blackmon 9% 10% 7% 7% 2.75
Benintendi 6% 9% 8% 15% 1.75
Merrifield 4% 8% 7% 27% 1.75

With my first batter I want someone who can contribute to all 5 categories. In target percentage terms that means anything 7% and over (100% divided by 14 hitters = 7.14%) and a positive batting average. That being said, Benintendi and Merrifield are eliminated from consideration. Now, Freeman has that 6% in steals that normally would eliminate him from my decision. What he lacks in steals he more than makes up for in batting average.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before but the ratio categories are harder to catch up late in the draft and even harder from the waiver wire. Over the years I’ve realized that the best strategy is to build up a surplus in the ratios and withdraw from it later in the draft to catch up in the counting stats.

Although, Stanton’s bombs and RBI are appealing, the lack of average would put me in a bad spot. So, he is out. Blackmon is an outfielder, so I removed him from my decision based on position scarcity. I can find outfielders later.

Machado or one of the first baseman. First, Freeman or Goldschmidt? They are very close. Freeman nearly doubles up Goldy in average which makes up for the home run and stolen base difference. So, Freeman versus Machado. Maybe it was the thought of Machado in San Diego surrounded by that so-so lineup or maybe it is because I’m a Braves fan. Either way, I went with Freeman.

Pick 3.10, 40th overall – OF Starling Marte

With Sale in the 1st I am comfortable focusing on getting another batter.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
K.Davis 14% 9% 11% 1% -1.25
Rizzo 10% 8% 10% 4% 1.25
Bellinger 11% 8% 9% 9% 0.00
Hoskins 13% 9% 10% 3% -0.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Rendon 9% 8% 9% 3% 2.25

Even though I just mentioned I have a nice surplus of batting average from drafting Freeman, I’m not quite ready to start making withdrawals. For that reason, I’m passing on Davis and Hoskins here. At the same time, I’m admitting to myself that I’ll be chasing home runs later in the draft.

Some may disagree with this approach but I am going to pass on Rizzo since I don’t need another 1B and don’t want to fill my corner infield spot right now.

So Bellinger, Marte or Rendon. As much as I would love to take Bellinger and his 11% dingers, he neither hurts nor helps me in average and my strategy is always to bank the ratios early. I have to pass. I ultimately went with Marte solely for the stolen bases. He’s the only player out there that gets you nearly 25% of your steals and doesn’t handicap you in the other categories.

Name (ADP) HR R RBI SB AVG
Marte (37) 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Villar (82) 5% 6% 5% 31% -0.25
M.Smith (99) 2% 7% 4% 30% 0.75
D.Gordon (109) 1% 7% 4% 28% 1.00
Hamilton (164) 1% 6% 3% 29% -1.25

So with Freeman and Marte:

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Freeman 9% 9% 10% 6% 3.50
Marte 6% 8% 7% 24% 1.25
Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75

Pick 4.06, 51st overall – SS Xander Bogaerts

I probably should take another pitcher but there is player available that is too good to pass up – Bogaerts.

I mentioned early when I selected Freeman about trying to get a player that helps me in all 5 categories. I call them the 5-star players. Well, the last 5-star player is still out there. I noticed that his ADP 48 put him just before where I would be picking in the 4th round but I didn’t want to reach for him back in the 3rd. I don’t hesitate and snag him quickly here.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 15% 17% 17% 30% 4.75
Bogaerts 7% 8% 9% 8% 1.75
New Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50

Pick 5.10, 70th overall – RP Kenley Jansen

I’m predicting a #closerrun so I decide to grab Jansen who is number two overall on my sheet.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Sale 16% 0% 17% 3.00 4.00
Jansen 3% 48% 6% 0.75 1.25
Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25

Pick 6.06, 81st overall – OF Eddie Rosario

I was wrong on the closer run, only two were drafted after I picked Jansen. Nothing really appeals to me on the pitching side, so I take Rosario whom I picked over Castellanos due to the slight advantage in steals.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 22% 25% 26% 38% 6.50
Rosario 9% 8% 8% 7% 1.25
New Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75

Pick 7.10, 100th overall – SP Charlie Morton

I was off by one round on the closer run, five went off the board since my last pick. Time to take another starting pitcher.

Name W SV K ERA WHIP
Previous Pitching Total 19% 48% 23% 3.75 5.25
Morton 13% 0% 12% 0.00 -0.50
New Pitching Total 32% 48% 35% 3.75 4.75

Pick 8.06, 111th overall – 1B Matt Olson

Time to get some home runs. Using the “Top 25” tab in Draft Buddy, I see that Olson is at top of the list of undrafted hitters for HR and RBI. He’s also second in Runs. It is time to make a withdrawal from the batting average surplus.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 31% 33% 34% 45% 7.75
Olson 11% 8% 9% 1% -1.00
New Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75

Pick 9.10, 130th overall – 2B Brian Dozier

Time to grab my second baseman. Again, since I am +6.75 in AVG, I can afford to take the -1.50 hit from the highest rated 2B left on my board.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 42% 41% 43% 46% 6.75
Dozier 9% 8% 8% 9% -1.50
New Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25

Pick 10.06, 141st overall – SS Tim Anderson

There were a few pitchers I was hoping would fall to me here. Unfortunately, Darvish, Hendricks and Tanaka were all selected so I turned my attention towards a bat.

Name HR R RBI SB AVG
Previous Batting Total 51% 49% 51% 55% 5.25
Anderson 6% 7% 6% 18% -0.75
New Batting Total 57% 56% 57% 73% 4.50

After 10 rounds I’m more than halfway towards my target levels in all hitting categories and my average is positive. This is good because, I will need to continue to chip into that batting average surplus in the later rounds.

As for pitching, I’ve got some work ahead of me but I am in good shape. Much like batting average, I’ll be siphoning off of my ERA and WHIP surplus as I continue to add arms throughout the last 20 rounds.

Make sure to cheer me on for the League 21 and overall title in TGFBI!

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Draft Buddy

MLB All-Star Break Re-Do Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

July 18, 2018 By avanfossan Leave a Comment

Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds

Andy is back with Round 2 of his do-over fantasy baseball draft. One of the surprises is Cincinnati Reds 3B Eugenio Suarez taken with the 14th overall pick.

Last week I traveled back in time (not literally) to change my draft. In essence, a well-deserved do-over fantasy baseball mock draft round 1.

The first round was not really out of the ordinary but it did have some shakeups compared to Average Draft Position (ADP) from the beginning of the year. The second round has even more surprises.

This is a 12-team snake draft, standard 5×5 roto fantasy baseball league. I include ADP from the start of the year and the first round pick for each slot, after the player I would draft now if I could do it all over again.

Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Round 2

13. Chris Sale Preseason ADP #13, Corey Kluber · 1st Round Pick, Corey Kluber

I could have easily picked an offensive player but the chance of grabbing two stud starting pitchers back-to-back was too good to pass up. Kluber the first choice because of his divisional opponents and his ability to pad stats. Sale this time because he’s a stud, pure and simple. Yes, he does face the AL East, specifically the Yankees, plenty but otherwise dominates on the mound.

14. Eugenio Suarez Preseason ADP #14, Carlos Correa · 1st Round Pick, Aaron Judge

I said this would have some surprises. Going with Judge in the first round really assured me a building block in the outfield. Suarez allows me to do the same in the infield. He’s currently hitting .315 with 19 home runs and 68 RBI’s for a Reds team that is in last place (although if they played the Cubs a little more they might be in first place).

Correa is a popular pick but I am reminded of last year when the Astros didn’t have one hitter with over 100 RBI, and Correa’s numbers weren’t that off the charts. He had 24 home runs and drove in 84 but only stole two bases. Suarez currently is on pace to blow by Correa’s numbers from last year.

15. Paul Goldschmidt Preseason ADP #15, Kris Bryant · 1st Round Pick, Max Scherzer

At this pick I have my stud pitcher with Scherzer and now have a potential steal with the 15th overall pick in Goldschmidt. Goldy is starting to heat up as the D-Backs are finally getting healthy. He’s been on fire this month upping his home runs total to 20 while driving in 51. He’s got a ways to go to match his numbers from last year but he’s on the right track. The thing that makes Goldschmidt such a steal with this pick is the potential for Goldy to steal double digit bags as a first baseman. He needs to run more to make this happen but I’m happy with him at 15.

16. Freddie Freeman Preseason ADP #16, Manny Machado · 1st Round Pick, Luis Severino

The Braves are supposed to win next year, not lead the NL East in 2018. Freeman is a known commodity in fantasy baseball and to the diehard fan but the casual baseball fan may not be familiar with his talents. He’s hitting .315 with 16 home runs and 59 RBI. He also has eligibility at third base which is a big plus as well.

17. Justin Verlander Preseason ADP #17, Joey Votto · 1st Round Pick, Francisco Lindor

OK, I get it – enough pitching already. My strategy is usually to get a top of the line starter in the first two rounds. This year saw a lot of borderline number ones to get gobbled up early and often. Verlander is the pick for me at 17. He’s cooled off a little bit since his blistering start but he still has a 2.05 ERA and 160 punch outs. The nice thing about Verlander is that he’s going to get wins with the Astros and that for me puts him inside the Top 20.

18. Jacob deGrom Preseason ADP #18, Aaron Judge · 1st Round Pick, J.D. Martinez

I can’t be too hypocritical with this pick but having Martinez anchoring my outfield, this would be the best time to get a top of the rotation starter. deGrom is having a 2010 Felix Hernandez, Cy Young-type season. In that season, King Felix was 13-12 for the M’s with a 2.27 ERA and 232 strikeouts. deGrom is in a similar situation with the Mets. He’s currently 5-4 with a sparkling 1.79 ERA and 142 strikeouts. The question is, will the Mets trade deGrom to a contending team? If he does, his wins will undoubtedly rise. If he doesn’t, he is still worth drafting in the mid-second round.

19. Javier Baez Preseason ADP #19, Freddie Freeman · 1st Round Pick, Jose Ramirez

I’ll be the first to admit, I never thought I’d be typing Javier Baez as a 19th overall pick in a fantasy baseball draft. I’m not a Javier Baez fan in the least bit. However, I need to put my subjectivity aside and look at the numbers he’s putting up this year.

Baez is clearly the Cubs’ offensive MVP with a stat line of: .291 avg, 17 jacks, 65 RBI and 17 stolen bases. He’s also in the top 20 in runs scored. These numbers make him a solid pick at this point of the draft.

20. Clayton Kershaw Preseason ADP #20, Francisco Lindor · 1st Round Pick, Manny Machado

This pick may surprise some but I can’t in good conscious let Kershaw fall any further. I didn’t like him in the pre-season draft because of his proneness to injury (back). The same verse has been sung again this year. Kershaw missed time due to back issues and therefore won’t make 30 starts again. However, he’s still one of the top 8 starting pitchers in the league and even five months of Kershaw is better than no months at all.

21. Carlos Correa Preseason ADP #21, Anthony Rizzo · 1st Round Pick, Nolan Arenado

Along the same lines of Kershaw, I couldn’t let Correa slide any further. He’s a top three offensive shortstop when healthy and plays on a top team. He’s going to fill at least four of the five offensive categories (maybe not so much stolen bases). This year, he’s been on the DL with back stiffness and according to manager AJ Hinch, won’t be back before the All-Star break (https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Astros-Carlos-Correa-return-to-action-up-in-the-13058029.php). He’s a complete steal at pick 21.

22. Charlie Blackmon Preseason ADP #22, Jose Ramirez · 1st Round Pick, Jose Altuve

A potential 1st round pick last year, Blackmon hasn’t been his off the charts self this year. Although selected for the All-Star Game, his average is down considerably since last year (currently .277) and he’s not running much (five stolen bases). However, he does have 17 home runs and is still scoring a lot of runs. Having him at 22 is definite value and matching with Altuve should have this fantasy team near the top in runs scored.

23. Andrew Benintendi Preseason ADP #23, J.D. Martinez · 1st Round Pick, Mookie Betts

Pairing Benintendi with Betts wasn’t planned in the least bit but looking at what was available for value near the turn, I’m happy with this pick. I looked at Rizzo and Bryant and for a potential five category player, Benintendi was too good to pass up. Picking him allows me to not worry about the outfield for a little while.

24. Bryce Harper Preseason ADP #24, Gary Sanchez · 1st Round Pick, Mike Trout

I didn’t think it would end up like this but two of the young stars of baseball will end up on the same team in this do-over draft. Harper started out on fire but has turned ice cold since May. He’s hitting below .200 and isn’t doing a lot to help himself in his free agent year. However, he is among the league leaders in home runs and is near the top of baseball in walks.

So there you have it. The 12 team snake draft do-over. I will have to admit, I really enjoyed doing this a second time and like any good educator, learned from my mistakes from the first draft.

Extra Innings

There are a lot of “snubs” that always come up during the MLB All-Star Game selection process, but I’m not sure there is anything we can do about it. When the All-Star Game is played, you are rewarding players for the first half of the season, or sometimes on name recognition if they are established players and off to a slower than normal start.

Basketball and hockey use the same midseason format. Football maybe got it right (one of the few things) by having their Pro Bowl after the end of the regular season. Although that is more out of necessity, and the Pro Bowl is typically the least interesting of the four major sport all-star events. Perhaps there is no perfect way to have a true all-star game.

I would like to see the game reward players for the entire season, not just the first few months. However, baseball is such a grind that finding players who would: 1) play after a 162 game season, 2) play after the World Series, or 3) play in a meaningless game at the beginning of November, seems near impossible. I am open to ideas to improve the All-Star Game, what do you think?

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Francoeur, Bay, Sandoval, Cuddyer

July 9, 2011 By Rick Leave a Comment

Stock Up

Jeff Francoeur, OF, KC – Jeff Francoeur made an appearance here earlier in the season and his renaissance season continues. No, he’s not putting up big numbers like he did in his first few seasons in the league, but he’s earning his pay. Over the last two weeks Frenchy is hitting .318 with three home runs, and 12 RBI while scoring 10 runs and even stealing four bases. There is no way he will continue at this level, but if he can contribute in all five categories, he’s well worth rostering to start the second half.

Jason Bay, OF, NYM – Ever since signing his mega-deal with the Mets, Bay has been a bust with underwhelming play mixed in with a lot of time off due to injuries. Over the last two weeks, he’s put up .326/3/13/8/2. There’s no telling how long this will continue, so enjoy the ride.

Pablo Sandoval, 1B/3B, SF – Sandoval got off to a quick start to his career with a nice splash in 2008 and a big rookie campaign in 2009, but he struggled mightily in 2010 and was often benched during last season’s playoffs since his bat was allergic to baseballs. Panda is a streaky player and he is in the middle of one of those hot streaks right now (.351/3/12/8/1), so grab him and go with it.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL – Freeman isn’t supposed to have a lot of homer power, so the five dingers over the last two weeks is a bit of a surprise. Still, that kind of hot streak is something worth a look to see if it can help your fantasy team before he comes back down to reality.

Danny Valencia, 3B, MIN – Valencia is more of a glove-man at the hot corner than a big stick, but with all the injuries you might be stuck with a try at anyone available. A solid average with no power is the expectation here, but the three homers and 12 RBI over the last two weeks are a great boost to your team. See if this can continue past the break if you are in need of help.

Michael Cuddyer, 1B/2B/3B/OF, MIN – The Twins as a team have been hot, so it is not surprising to see another player on this list. Cuddyer’s position flexibility is reason enough to roster him, but the hot streak is reason to start him anywhere you have an opening. Over the last two weeks, Cuddyer has posted .316/3/10/8 and this is the kind of help that can get you through the tough injuries or cold streaks during a long season.

Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL – Uggla’s average is ugly, but this guy’s game is power. His average may never be what you want, but he’s hit four homers and 10 ribbies over the last two weeks, so ride the power surge as he looks to be figuring it out right now.

 
Stock Down

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS – Zimmerman missed more than two months due to injury and still doesn’t seem to be back to full strength. He’s hitting .229/2/7/3 over the last two weeks, so sit him if you have a better option and hope for better results after some rest during the All Star Break.

Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B, BOS – Youkilis is also struggling right now to the tune of .258/1/5/4 despite the rest of the Red Sox crushing it. In the middle of a high powered offense like the BoSox, he’s likely to catch the fever too, so hang on to him and play him unless you have a much better option to start until Youk gets hot again.

Adam Dunn, 1B, CWS – If you haven’t already done so, cut bait on Dunn. His bat has been awful and doesn’t look to recover.

Derek Jeter, SS, NYY – The excitement of watching just the 23rd player in baseball history get to 3,000 hits is big stuff, but watching Jeter get there is painful. First we had to wait through the injury, now the anemic performances. He’s just 3-for-13 since his return and hopefully you’ve got someone else to play until after the break.

Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL – Weeks is currently struggling (.170/1/2/8/0) and has been wrangled into the Home Run Derby during the All Star festivities. This event is usually detrimental to a player’s game swing for some time after the event, so finding a place on your bench for Weeks over the next few weeks might be a good decision.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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