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Fantasy Baseball Journal—Trade Offer for David Price

April 29, 2010 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

I’ve been spending all of my FBJ (that’s Fantasy Baseball Journal) time on my 15-team, 5X5 mixed weekly transaction league so far, but I received a trade in the 13-team, 6X6 mixed daily transaction league I need to breakdown and decide what to do with.

The trade offer came from Eno over at Fantasy Lounge and FanGraphs, who from what I can tell lives and breathes fantasy baseball, so although his team is off to a rough start in this league, I need to be on my toes with this one. The offer is:

I Give I Get
SP David Price SP Mat Latos
SP Brad Penny

Eno’s note to me accompanying the trade is, “Facing a roster crunch with Lilly coming back.” Right, but I think I am too since I dropped Aaron Harang to pull Brian Fuentes off of the DL. I still have George Sherrill, who I’d be happy to drop but I still need someone to help me with Holds.

I spoke with Rick before about David Price, in which I indicated I thought he was a good upside pick for this season, and Rick still felt (more or less) he was a year away. His reasoning was that sometimes a pitcher in Price’s position will come in, do well early until hitters figure him out a little. That leads to a downtick adjustment period, after which the guy either has it, or he doesn’t.

I more or less agree with that, not only with pitchers, but young players in lots of sports. It is probably more pronounced in baseball though where the man-vs.-man, pitcher-vs.-hitter battle prevents players from, using a hockey phrase, “being a passenger”, essentially going along for the ride allowing team mates to compensate and cover up the player’s deficiencies.

In baseball, the pitcher and hitter are on an island. Players can adjust facing a particular individual, and performances are more easily identifiable as the individual player is doing well or struggling.

So, while I do agree with Rick that Price could be in line for a correction—a.k.a., he’s currently overvalued for fantasy—is now the time to give him up? It is still early, and because it is early and he hasn’t really proven anything so far in his career to support this production, people can and will target him from you using otherwise middle level veteran players, also known as players without a lot of pizzazz.

How do they justify that? Well, what has he proven to justify more in a trade? What indeed.

It is a tough spot to be in. You can’t sell him for what you think is appropriate value, but at the same time, you think he will probably lose value if you hold him.

Ultimately, after getting Rick’s second opinion, I decided to hang on to Price. He’s been really hot, and unless you are blown away with an offer, I don’t want to sell him and watch him continue down the same path of dominance all the while expecting him to maybe fall off a bit… sometime… maybe.

I guess the old adage applies here too. If you are giving up the best single player in the deal, then you are probably on the wrong end of the deal. It happens a lot that you just can’t get enough in return to justify trading away a player with premium qualities.

Quality over quantity will get you closer to winning a fantasy championship many more times than not.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Journal—Pitching Staff Review

April 26, 2010 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

After taking two days to review the hitters for my fantasy team in the 15-team, 5X5 roto mixed league, it is time to take a look at my pitching staff.

The pitchers have been better than the hitters, that much is clear, but still not stellar. Early on my ERA and WHIP were miniscule, but John Lackey got roughed up in his last start, Dan Haren’s ERA is up over 5.00 and Chris Perez got roughed up by the Tigers back on April 11th.

As of writing this, my overall pitching is 6th in the league, and fairly consistent in the categories across the board—6th in W and WHIP, 7th in Saves and ERA, and 8th in K.

We start 9 pitchers in this league, with no restrictions on starters versus relievers. The first reliever I drafted was Heath Bell in the 8th round, and then I pretty much avoided relievers until late, so I’ve got a bunch of starters, a couple closers and a couple of middle relievers. I’ll comment on the starters first.

Dan Haren—I chuckle at the most recent CBS (where the league is hosted) player note on Haren, saying, “Haren batting better than pitching.” Funny, or… not, for my ace I drafted in the 3rd round. The comment came on the heels of Haren getting 4 hits in a game against the Cardinals. He gave up 7 runs and 9 hits through 6 innings, so the tagline fits.

Haren started the season with a solid 7 inning performance, 1 ER, 3 H and no walks for the win, but only 4 K. His next three starts the K numbers are there—9, 7 and 8—but the ERA and WHIP are notably worse than expectations, including 5 HR allowed in those 3 games.

No doubt he continues to start for me, but he’s raised a eyebrow of concern at this point.

John Lackey—Lackey started the season better than team mates Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, but took it on the chin in his third start against the Rays, which was the final game of the Sox’ recent five game losing streak. Lackey lasted just 3-1/3 innings, giving up 8 runs on 9 hits and a walk, causing his, and my, ERA and WHIP to skyrocket.

This one also gets chalked up as hopefully a blip, facing a hot Rays team at the time. Based on the projected pitchers, it looks like Lackey will skip the Toronto series giving him a fair bit of rest to face the Orioles in their series opener. That should be a decent matchup for him.

Aaron Harang—Now here is a guy, also invested with a not insignificant pick in the draft, 13th round, but his performance has my patience wearing thin. In fact, he rode the bench this past week for me and it is a good thing considering his last start against Florida resulted in 6 ER, 10 H, 2 BB and only 2 K in 5 -2/3 innings. Yes, he got the loss.

Now reports indicate the Reds might skip Harang’s next start, presumably because they don’t know what to do with him either. Harang is a drop to waivers candidate for me this week unless I have other better candidates (or not enough quality targets), in which case Harang can hang around on my bench for a little bit while he tries to work out his issues.

Tim Hudson—I’ve been pretty happy with Hudson, drafted in the round following Harang, even though his record is just 1-1 so far. His last start he only gave up 2 runs but faced off against Roy Halladay who pitched a shutout. Similarly in his first start, Hudson allowed just 2 R, but Billy Wagner blew the save in the ninth.

Hudson isn’t going to help my K numbers but if he can stay efficient the wins will come along with a healthy ERA and WHIP.

Andy Pettitte—Here is another pitcher where I catch myself on draft day saying, “Really? I’m drafting Andy Pettitte?” Yes I am. Pettitte is 2-0 through 3 starts with 14 K, a 1.35 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Nothing to argue about there, especially from an 18th round draft pick. He’s older than I am by a few months, so yes, I need to keep in my mind not to expect numbers this good all season. Right now I’ll take it though.

Shaun Marcum—I targeted Marcum in the draft, and yes, most of that had to do with the Blue Jays fan in me rather than an unbiased fantasy view. I thought I hit gold after his first start which was solid even though he got a no decision. My enthusiasm is now tempered a bit as he’s given up more hits in his next three starts, and remains winless. He still looks pretty good though. A little more run support when he is on the mound would be a welcome sight.

Justin Duchscherer—As I go on here it would seem my later drafted starting pitchers are outperforming my earlier drafted pitchers by a fair bit. That is just a little more anecdotal evidence to not draft pitchers early.

Duchscherer (or Duch, since typing his full name feels like my fingers have a stutter), gave up 5 ER in his first start but came back with two consecutive games allowing no ER, earning one win and one no decision. His ERA is 2.41 and WHIP down at 1.18. I’m happy with that. I’m not predicting return to All-Star status for Duch just yet, but I’m happy.

C.J. Wilson—I dropped Jon Garland after the first week to acquire Wilson, based on advice from Razzball.com, a highly recommended website for equal parts baseball insight and entertainment, which is a hard combination to find these days.

Wilson earned me a win with his 6 2/3, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K, shutout performance against the Red Sox. He’s had 3 solid starts on the season. That is the kind of surprise undrafted player why we shouldn’t fall asleep at the wheel early in the season, so we can grab him before another team does. Thanks Razzball.

Heath Bell—Now on to the closers. Bell is doing what is expected of him, earning his 4th save of the year Tuesday in 6 appearances. The Padres don’t have a lot of pop in their bat, giving Bell the opportunities with close games, but not much room for error.

He’s given up 1 ER in two of his appearances, one of them resulting in a blown save. His ERA is an even 3.00 and WHIP 1.67, plus he picked up a W along the way. Considering my lack of depth at closer, I’ve got to keep my fingers crossed Bell is in for the long haul.

Chris Perez—Perez earned the closer spot earlier than expected due to an injury to Kerry Wood. I grabbed Perez in the 15th round of the draft, which was probably a bit early. It was one I was confident in though because I owned Wood last year, and didn’t like what I saw (or remembered?). Given the positive reports on Perez, I felt good even before the injury to Wood that Perez would become the guy.

Now, it may have in fact been more beneficial for Perez’ development if he didn’t have to start closing games so soon this season. He had a rough game to the point reports indicated Perez was on a short leash. Luckily, he bounced back nicely from that and it up to 4 Saves, with a 4.76 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.

There is still no definitive timetable when Wood is coming back, but I need to troll for saves regardless of losing Perez in that role or not.

George Sherrill—Sherrill has been terrible. I would have been better off with an open spot in my starting lineup than having Sherrill in there, and fortunately, Sherrill hasn’t been in the starting lineup for this league. The other league where we value Holds is another story, unfortunately.

Sherrill could be replaced in the setup role by Ramon Troncoso. The only reason to hold Sherrill, or grab Troncoso, would be as a lottery ticket in case the Dodgers’ closer Jonathan Broxton goes down with injury. Put money on the fact Sherrill will be hitting the skids in our next FAAB.

Sergio Romo—Romo was a near last round draft pick who hasn’t been inserted in the starting lineup yet, and probably won’t be anytime soon. Another waiver candidate if I can find a better upside replacement for his roster spot.

Mark Hendrickson—Ditto Romo, except Hendrickson was my final round draft pick. I should have gone with some more hitters in the draft.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Baseball Journal—Waiting On Markakis, Pence

April 22, 2010 By Draft Buddy 1 Comment

Last time I started a review of my team in my 15-team 5X5 roto league, with weekly transactions and no trading. The review started with the infielders. Now I’ll tackle the outfielders. Putting them together, we should be able to see why my hitting numbers are so pitiful through the first two weeks of the season.

In fact, before I get to the players in question, let’s look at those numbers. Through the end of the second week, after all games played on Tuesday April 20, I’ve accumulated 47 out of a possible 75 roto points for my pitching staff, but just 30.5 roto points for hitting. 30.5! That is terrible.

The pitching numbers aren’t good either, and I’ll get to that next time, but first we’ll concentrate on hitting.

The gory details include 13th place in BA (.253), tied for 5th in HR (24), 14th in R (74), 5th in RBI (96) and 13th in SB (10).

The infield review showed that with Brian Roberts out, SB have been hard to come by, but more importantly, these guys just aren’t hitting for a good average. Mark Reynolds and Alexei Ramirez have been hitting well under .200 most of the short season so far, plus Mike Napoli when he’s played.

I need some guys hitting closer to the top of the order, who are getting on base and getting driven in by the middle of the order to help in the runs.

Well, let’s take a look at the outfield and see what has worked and what hasn’t. This league starts 5 OF, so by the time the draft hit the latter half and teams were looking to fill their 4th and 5th starter positions, it was getting kind of grim.

Nick Markakis—Another sub-.250 hitter, Markakis is coming around but is just .222 on the season. Our preseason projections indicated he stay pretty much in line with his numbers from the past three years, with a moderate bump in HR, R and RBI over 2009. Right now we’ll take the 2009 numbers with no bump and be happy about it. This is one where we chalk it up as Markakis taking a little time to get going. Stay the course.

Shin-Soo Choo—Choo is one of the hottest bats going right now, winning AL Player of the Week for last week. Hey, between him and Miguel Cabrera my players have won AL Player of the Week both weeks! Who’s next? While I can’t expect Choo and Cabrera to keep up this torrid pace, at least they are helping me through the rough patches by their fantasy team mates.

Hunter Pence—This is where things really take a turn for the worse. Pence was my third drafted OF, taken in the 6th round. He’s still batting under .200 for the season showing just modest improvement from starting the season 0 for 12 before getting a hit in his first at-bat in the Astros’ fourth game. The last seven days he’s hitting .260, and the return of Lance Berkman who started Tuesday, should help. Another hold, wait and see situation.

Corey Hart—Not an everyday player. Ouch. That hurts as your fourth outfielder of five starters, with a small bench and weekly lineups, because it isn’t like I can switch him in and out at a moments notice. Given my other options, he continues to start. He is getting the majority of time in right field but not really making the most of it. The recurring theme of my team continues; Hart is hitting just .242 to date.

Reports indicate after a poor spring training (.172 BA), he’s turned a corner. We’ll see. The “turned a corner” report also seems to be a recurring theme for hitters that are supposed to be in their prime but are starting the season slow.

Jim Edmonds is the guy who surprisingly started in place of Hart for two of three games in the opening series, and Edmonds continues to get regular playing time backing up Hart and CF Carlos Gomez.

Luke Scott—Yet another low average hitter, Scott is under .200. Check the year-to-date BA for my first five OF, from best to worst: .312, .242, .222, .187, .186. Kind of explains my fantasy team’s struggles on this side of the ledger, doesn’t it?

Scott has a couple homers, but hasn’t hit safely twice in a game yet. As a result, he isn’t playing everyday either, switching off with Lou Montanez while Nolan Reimold is the DH. The Orioles are struggling and I’ve got two pieces from their OF. If I can move Scott to the bench while he works out his issues, that would be ideal.

Lastings Milledge—Milledge is a guy about running out of chances with fantasy owners. I took a flier on him late in the draft, but with the Roberts injury and a thin bench, he’s currently manning my UT starting spot. Fortunately, he’s been pretty decent, hitting .270 with 6 RBI and a SB. Nothing earth shattering but if he can up his SB numbers, and I’m not expecting much in the power department, he’ll be worth the small price I paid for him.

Okay, so that is a rundown on the outfield. Unless Hart and Scott turn things around soon, I need to make some moves here. I’m not worried about Markakis, only slightly worried about Pence, but Hart and Scott are better upside bench options at this point. That is, if I can find a suitable replacement, keeping in mind this is a deep league.

I’ll look at the pitchers next, but my early take is I need to drop a catcher, thin out the pitchers a bit to make room for more bench spots for the hitters. Perhaps a shotgun approach grabbing a couple upside options and hope one of them pans out.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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