I’ve been spending all of my FBJ (that’s Fantasy Baseball Journal) time on my 15-team, 5X5 mixed weekly transaction league so far, but I received a trade in the 13-team, 6X6 mixed daily transaction league I need to breakdown and decide what to do with.
The trade offer came from Eno over at Fantasy Lounge and FanGraphs, who from what I can tell lives and breathes fantasy baseball, so although his team is off to a rough start in this league, I need to be on my toes with this one. The offer is:
|I Give||I Get|
|SP David Price||SP Mat Latos
SP Brad Penny
Eno’s note to me accompanying the trade is, “Facing a roster crunch with Lilly coming back.” Right, but I think I am too since I dropped Aaron Harang to pull Brian Fuentes off of the DL. I still have George Sherrill, who I’d be happy to drop but I still need someone to help me with Holds.
I spoke with Rick before about David Price, in which I indicated I thought he was a good upside pick for this season, and Rick still felt (more or less) he was a year away. His reasoning was that sometimes a pitcher in Price’s position will come in, do well early until hitters figure him out a little. That leads to a downtick adjustment period, after which the guy either has it, or he doesn’t.
I more or less agree with that, not only with pitchers, but young players in lots of sports. It is probably more pronounced in baseball though where the man-vs.-man, pitcher-vs.-hitter battle prevents players from, using a hockey phrase, “being a passenger”, essentially going along for the ride allowing team mates to compensate and cover up the player’s deficiencies.
In baseball, the pitcher and hitter are on an island. Players can adjust facing a particular individual, and performances are more easily identifiable as the individual player is doing well or struggling.
So, while I do agree with Rick that Price could be in line for a correction—a.k.a., he’s currently overvalued for fantasy—is now the time to give him up? It is still early, and because it is early and he hasn’t really proven anything so far in his career to support this production, people can and will target him from you using otherwise middle level veteran players, also known as players without a lot of pizzazz.
How do they justify that? Well, what has he proven to justify more in a trade? What indeed.
It is a tough spot to be in. You can’t sell him for what you think is appropriate value, but at the same time, you think he will probably lose value if you hold him.
Ultimately, after getting Rick’s second opinion, I decided to hang on to Price. He’s been really hot, and unless you are blown away with an offer, I don’t want to sell him and watch him continue down the same path of dominance all the while expecting him to maybe fall off a bit… sometime… maybe.
I guess the old adage applies here too. If you are giving up the best single player in the deal, then you are probably on the wrong end of the deal. It happens a lot that you just can’t get enough in return to justify trading away a player with premium qualities.
Quality over quantity will get you closer to winning a fantasy championship many more times than not.