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MLB Opening Day Excitement, Sage Fantasy Baseball Advice for the Season Ahead

March 28, 2019 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

Dr. A. Bartlett Giamatti

Former MLB Commissioner Dr. A. Bartlett Giamatti (WikiPedia; New York Times)

“It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.” – A. Bartlett Giamatti

Opening Day Excitement

  • 2009 Indians – Coming off a 81-81 record with reigning AL Cy Young Winner, Cliff Lee, many were picking the Indians to come out of the AL Central.
  • 2010 Mariners – Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Junior Griffey and Ichiro. Everyone was predicting them to win the AL West.
  • 2011 Twins – coming off a 94 win season while winning the AL Central and getting Joe Nathan back, things were looking good for a run at the postseason.
  • 2012 Red Sox – coming off a historic collapse in 2011, Boston was favored to win the AL Pennant.
  • 2013 White Sox – coming off 85 wins and just missing the playoffs with Chris Sale and Jake Peavy many were picking them to contend in the AL Central.
  • 2014 Rangers – after winning 90+ games four seasons in a row, many were predicting Texas to be right in the thick of things.
  • 2015 Athletics – coming off an 88 win season and losing a heartbreaking 1-0 Wild Card game to the Royals, some were expecting them to be a factor in the AL West.
  • 2016 Diamondbacks – Adding Zack Greinke to a 79 win team had many predicting Arizona to make a move in the AL West.
  • 2017 Giants – coming off three straight season with 84+ wins and a rotation with Bumgarner, Cueto and Samardzija everyone was penciling them in for the playoffs.

All of the teams listed above* were expecting big things heading into the season. All of them finished with less than 70 wins. This goes to show you that Mr. Giamatti was right, baseball will break your heart. Many things will happen from now until the regular season ends on the last Sunday in September. I’m here to help you prepare with some fantasy baseball advice for the long road ahead.

* You are probably asking why there is no representative for 2018. There were eight teams with less than 70 wins last year (Orioles, Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Rangers, Marlins, Reds and Padres). None of them were expected to be much better than they actually were.

Fantasy Baseball Advice

Roster Evaluation

When preparing for your fantasy baseball draft you evaluate players and what they are projected to do, at that particular point in time, for the upcoming season. Once the games begin, things will change. Injuries. Benchings. Trades. You get the picture. Loose screws fall out all the time; the world is an imperfect place. The roster you end up with in Autumn will not be the same one you drafted in the Spring.

I like to look over my roster daily and evaluate each of the starters by asking myself, “Is he a starter and is he a top starter?” What do I mean by that? A true starter in your fanasy baseball league should be one of the top N players at his position, where N is the number of teams in your league. For example, if you are in a 12 team league then your shortstop should be one of the top 12 shortstops. Otherwise you’re already in a hole.

For your corner, middle and utility slots you ultimately want to have players that are ranking as top N at their primary position. For example, if your corner infielder is evaluated as the 11th best 3B then you are taking that possible starter away from another team, making them weaker than yours.

A top starter is, not only top N but, in the top half. Using the same 12 team league again, in a perfect world you want a top 6 shortstop. In fact you want to be in the top half for all of your positions.

For outfield and pitching, where you start more than one typically, I tier them into SP1, SP2, SP3, etc. I then try and have a player in the top half of each tier, at a minimum. Ideally you would like to have your #2 SP evaluated as an SP1, or your #3 OF as an OF2. This gives you a nice advantage over many teams.

Turnover Your Bench

If you feel that all of your current starters are in the top half at their position then turn your attention to your bench. If you feel that you have a surplus of talent, look to make a trade with another team to shore up a spot where you feel you are weak.

My bench is typically fluid throughout the season. I’m constantly moving players in and out. I’m rostering latest callups to see if they produce. I’m rostering players that I evaluate as starters and should be rostered but are not currently. Again, this is weakening other teams, thereby making yours stronger.

Don’t fall into the trap that your roster is perfect the way it is… evaluate constantly.

When To Let Go

Early in the season, you must work to fix the mistakes you made in your draft. Trust me, you made some mistakes. Just don’t discover them too late.

Sometimes it is obvious like injury, benching or demotion when to drop a player. What about that underperformer that still gets playing time but just isn’t living up to his projections?

There is no hard or fast rule on when to “cut bait” on those guys. Your early draft picks you’re going to want to hang on to longer than your late round flyers. My general rule of thumb is to hand them their walking papers after X number of weeks; where X equals 24 minus the round the player was drafted. For example, you drafted an outfielder in the 17th round. Come week seven (24-17), I would look to replace him with someone better.

Trading

Theoretically, after your draft the players out on the wire are there for a reason. They were not “draft worthy.” That means that the best way to improve your team early in the season is with trades as you are hoping to obtain other “draft worthy” talent. Unfortunately, most owners are attached to the players they drafted and overestimate the worth of their players while underestimating the value of yours. As the season goes on and owners distance themselves from the draft they tend to more reasonably value their drafted players.

Later in the season I’ve found that most trades are for particular stats to help you move up in the standings. You might be low in stolen bases or steals but high in ERA and WHIP so you swap a pitcher for a closer or speed merchant. In keeper leagues, be on the lookout for the fire sale when an owner gives up on his team and tries to trade away all of his players for future assets.

My best trade advice is to always look at your offer from both sides. Ask yourself if the other owner would make the trade. How does it help them? The best trades are those that help both teams. Don’t offer three players that can be found on the wire for one stud player. Would you trade away one of your studs for three guys that you could find on the wire? Why would you expect anyone else to do it?

The Wire

Making a trade that benefits both teams can be hard to accomplish. More often than not you will be forced to improve your team via the waiver wire. Relying on the players you drafted isn’t enough.

Below is the analysis I did on two leagues from last season. I determined the percentage of total stats that came from drafted players vs. players found on the wire.

Both leagues are 12 team, standard 5×5 roto with 13 hitters using 1 catcher and 5 outfielders, 9 pitchers and 3 bench spots (Razzball) or 4 bench spots (RotoBaller).

Hitting Razzball Drafted Razzball Wire RotoBaller Drafted RotoBall Wire Both Drafted Both Wire
At Bats 72% 28% 72% 28% 72% 28%
Runs 75% 25% 74% 26% 74% 26%
Home Runs 74% 26% 75% 25% 75% 25%
RBI 74% 26% 73% 27% 74% 26%
Steals 84% 16% 78% 22% 81% 19%
AVG .265 .252 .265 .250 .265 .251
Pitching Razzball Drafted Razzball Wire RotoBaller Drafted RotoBall Wire Both Drafted Both Wire
Innings 71% 29% 71% 29% 71% 29%
Wins 75% 25% 74% 26% 75% 25%
Saves 73% 27% 71% 29% 72% 28%
Strikeouts 73% 27% 72% 28% 73% 27%
ERA 3.49 4.29 3.55 4.15 3.52 4.22
WHIP 1.17 1.32 1.19 1.28 1.18 1.30

Now, the first thing you should’ve noticed (I did) was that the ratio stats are quite a bit better from the drafted players as they are from those found on the wire.

Where the wire can really help you is the counting stats. For all but stolen bases you can find anywhere from 25-29% of what you’ll need on the wire. What you can’t see here are the raw numbers, but let’s look at runs. In the Razzball league there were 11,257 runs counted and 2,861 came from the wire. The difference between 1st place in runs and last place was 439 runs. You can make up ground in those counting stats… at the expense of your ratios.

The hardest counting stat to find on the wire is stolen bases. There are some out there but you will have to be quick as they are a very desired commodity. In fact, stolen base attempts has been declining every year over the past five seasons.
Drafting your ratios and steals becomes all the more clearer with this analysis.

Conclusion

Constantly evaluate and look for opportunities to improve your team. It is exciting today is Opening Day! Don’t let that excitement dissuade you from the marathon ahead. If you don’t put in the time, then baseball, and your fantasy baseball team, will surely break your heart.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

Buy and Sell Advice for Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton, Javier Baez, Justin Verlander

April 2, 2018 By Giles Clasen 1 Comment

Byron Buxton

It is early but Giles advice is sell Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton. He will not get enough plate appearances batting in the bottom of the order to make the fantasy impact expected of a Top 75 draft pick.

Josh Donaldson, TOR

Toronto is paying more to players sitting in the hospital or on the bench than some smaller market clubs are paying their entire team. This has created some interesting fantasy options, if you navigate it correctly. Troy Tulowitzki is on the 60-day DL and Josh Donaldson can’t throw a ball due to the ominous sounding injury – dead arm.

Your reminder: This corner belongs to @BringerOfRain20. #BlueJays pic.twitter.com/YBDiNWfElN

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) March 29, 2018

Dead arm is a shoulder ailment usually associated with pitchers not fielders. This injury has been nagging Donaldson throughout spring training, although it really came to light Opening Day, and it is worrisome that he hasn’t been able recover.

Donaldson is a major concern because he was drafted in the third round and is already hurt. I often wish in a case like this the team would put the player on the DL and let him heal. Long term that would give you better fantasy numbers. Instead Toronto moved Donaldson to DH.

Fantasy Advice – Hold
I would hold on to Donaldson for now and hope he recovers and gives you the season you invested in. If you try and sell you are going to get pennies on the dollar. I wouldn’t look to buy either, as I don’t have faith Donaldson will rebound over the short term and I am unsure of his long term prognosis.

Yangervis Solarte, TOR

The big winner as a result of the injury troubles in Toronto is Yangervis Solarte. Solarte has always been a better real baseball player than a fantasy option, but he showed promise in San Diego in 2016 slashing .286/.341/.467.

An oblique injury in 2017 sidelined him for a month and slowed his growth. Solarte also struggled to get the ball over the fence in Petco Park, one of the worst batters parks out there. I was intrigued when the Blue Jays gave up two valuable prospects to acquire Solarte. With all the injuries Solarte will likely bat cleanup and offers multi-position flexibility.

Rogers Centre isn’t known as a great home run park but will be a big step up from Petco. Solarte hit his first home run on Saturday and already drove in a couple of RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
He is 76 percent owned in CBS leagues, but I imagine his owners don’t know what they have. Look to add him for the short term, especially if you need to replace Ian Kinsler or haven’t yet found a viable spot holder for Daniel Murphy.

Byron Buxton, MIN

Byron Buxton is batting 8th right now, and that should worry all Buxton owners. He is batting far lower in the order than any other batter with a Top 75 average draft position. If Buxton doesn’t move up in the order soon then you overpaid for him.

The only way a player can hit home runs, steal bases and drive in runs is to get up to bat. That is opportunity, and opportunity is very valuable for fantasy baseball success.

Guys who bat at the bottom of the order lose plate appearances. Joe Douglas at RotoGraphs calculated that each drop in the order costs a player 14 PA over a season. To realize how much it hurts a player, understand that a player batting eighth loses at least 100 plate appearances during the season when compared to the heart of the lineup.

So Buxton faces a greater uphill battle to fantasy superstardom than just stealing bases and hitting home runs. The only way Buxton moves up in the lineup is to cut his K-rate and increase his on-base percentage

He isn’t off to a great start, striking out 4 times in his first 11 trips to the plate. I think Buxton can do enough to jump Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar in the order, but it is a stretch to assume Buxton will take over leadoff duties this year, an ideal position for someone with Buxton’s speed.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
I would look to sell any shares you have while the optimists look past the looming troubles. If you’re lucky you may be able to trade Buxton for Tommy Pham or Whit Merrifield. Both have lower ceilings than Buxton, but are batting second and have a higher floor.

Javier Baez, CHC

The Cubs played a 17 inning game Friday night. If they do that often enough the Cubs will have enough at-bats for all their players. That is the best hope you have for getting the numbers you expected from Javier Baez. Assuming the Cubs play mostly the more traditional nine inning games then Baez faces the same dilemma as Buxton.

Playing for the Cubs is a blessing and a curse. Baez plays for a very good Cubs team and every guy in the lineup hits and gets on base. By virtue of being a Cub, Baez drove in 75 RBI and scored 75 times in 2017. Baez also showed enough power and speed to hit 23 home runs while swiping 10 bags.

However, I am not sure if Baez can repeat those numbers. The biggest problem Baez faces is plate appearances. The Cubs have too many players deserving of every day at-bats. Joe Maddon did a great job utilizing each player last year, but finding AB for Baez, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, Albert Almora and Jason Heyward isn’t easy.

Happ offers the most potential and will see the most playing time. This really hurts Baez in fantasy, because he loses 20 or more starts this year. He sat on Saturday so Zobrist could get a day at second base. This will be a regular occurrence all season.

Baez further hurts himself with a 28 percent strikeout rate and .276 OBP. On Opening Day Maddon slotted Baez in as the 8th batter and that isn’t likely to change unless he can get on base more regularly. As noted with Buxton, the lower a player bats in the order the fewer PA they receive over a season.

When you combine the position competition with his low place in the order, Baez becomes a guy you don’t want on your team. It isn’t difficult imagining Baez only getting 500 AB. If this happens he could score 15 fewer runs and drive in 15 fewer RBI.

Fantasy Advice – Sell
Baez has strong name recognition and looked good last year, so it isn’t too late to trade him away. It may be a reach, but I would offer Baez for Rich Hill or Trevor Bauer and then pick up the earlier mentioned Solarte or Tim Anderson off the waiver wire to fill your middle infield position. Anderson is off to a quick start and only 50 percent owned in CBS leagues at the time of writing this.

Justin Verlander, HOU

Justin Verlander had a good start on Opening Day. He didn’t allow any runs through six innings of work, while striking out five in a respectable 90 pitches. Several analysts had Verlander slotted as a bust this year. Both SI and Rotoballer cited Verlander’s 2017 xFIP as an omen of things to come. However, recall there was a night and day difference in Verlander’s stats between his Detroit and Houston games last year.

In 2017, Verlander’s first half xFIP was an unattractive 5.03, but his second half dropped to 3.28. Few pitchers improve as the season rolls along, so Verlander’s numbers are notable. Verlander talked often about Houston’s advanced analytics helping him improve, and Houston’s brain trust was hard at work when they used that wild shift against Joey Gallo.

I think we may see Verlander’s best season since 2011. Verlander wasn’t perfect in his first start, but with Houston’s talent backing him up in the field and driving in runs at the plate we may see Verlander’s first 20 win season in 7 years. That will be accompanied with the usual strike outs and a sub-3.50 ERA.

Fantasy Advice – Buy
His price may be higher now than draft day, but if you are looking to trade for an ace then Verlander could still have the lowest price out there. If you own him then hold tight. You can sleep well knowing you acquired a 35-year-old starting pitcher who looks more robot than man these days.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

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