fanex Archives | DraftBuddy.com

FanEx 12-Team Flex PPR Draft Recap, Rounds 6 to 12

August 11, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Can Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams do a complete 180 turn from his rookie season and outperform his average draft position? He cost an 11th round pick in the FanEx 12-team flex PPR draft.

Continuing my FanEx 12-team flex PPR draft recap, drafting a top QB in the 4th round (Aaron Rodgers) and a top TE (Greg Olsen) in the fifth is clearly going to leave your team behind (on paper) at RB and WR.

This is the time to lean on your drafting skills, stockpiling backs and receivers who represent good value. Running back is tougher than wide receiver because the guys with a clearly defined role of significant carries are long gone, but I still won’t pass on a receiver I feel could really outperform his draft position to reach for a running back.

Rounds 6 to 12

6.05 RB Dion Lewis, TEN

Dion Lewis should have a decent role with the Titans. I like Derrick Henry a fair bit but the way things appear to be shaking out in terms of touches, these two should be closer together on draft boards. They want to spread out the offense which would seem to align more with Lewis’ skills. Still, Lewis has a poor injury history prior to last season. I wouldn’t be very interested in a standard league but PPR scoring boosts Lewis to an acceptable, albeit a little risky, RB2.

7.08 WR Marquise Goodwin, SF

I’ve come full circle on the Goodwin versus Pierre Garcon debate, after listening to reports out of San Francisco 49ers camp from Adam Caplan about Goodwin looking the part of a true number one wide receiver. Not that reports on Garcon are poor. I still think Garcon is a good value as a mid-round pick, but Goodwin represents excellent upside if he can build on what he and Jimmy Garoppolo started last season. The first three of the five game win streak saw Goodwin record games of 8-99, 6-106 and 10-114.

8.05 WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN

It isn’t ideal to have two wide receivers from the same team but Sanders seems very undervalued as the 38th WR off the board after finishing WR6, WR19 and WR20 from 2014-2016. Even if we throw out 2014, Peyton Manning’s next to final season, we can similarly discount last season’s nightmare at quarterback for the Broncos. The addition of Courtland Sutton is a plus for Sanders allowing him to work out of the slot position more. I should try to work a trade involving Thomas to diversify a bit, or maybe draft Case Keenum and hope to catch lightning in a bottle with the trio.

10.05 RB Chris Thompson, WAS

Noting again my ninth round pick was gone in the trade for Bell, I did think a player like Ty Montgomery could make it here but my fellow owners are doing a pretty good job grabbing running backs. My concern with Thompson is his return from a broken leg and how quickly he can get back up to speed. He was great last season prior to injury, and having a rookie in front of him and not much else on the depth chart should give him sufficient opportunity to get on the field and contribute.

Update: Derrius Guice tore his ACL in the Washington Redskins preseason opener. This doesn’t necessarily mean more touches for Thompson, as he may not be able to handle that, but felt it was worth mentioning that news broke after I drafted Thompson and wrote this blurb.

11.08 WR Mike Williams, LAC

My running back depth is thin but I can’t help myself taking a fifth wide receiver, another player I think is capable of outperforming his draft position. His rookie season was a write-off, but he has first round pedigree, checks in nicely as a big target for Philip Rivers at 6’4″, 220 lbs., and I want a piece of this Chargers offense. Williams ADP is rising slightly with reports of him being a big red zone target since Hunter Henry is out of the picture and Antonio Gates isn’t signed yet.

12.05 RB Aaron Jones, GB

I don’t love Aaron Jones, or the Packers running game as a whole. I do think Ty Montgomery is the best value pick of the group for PPR drafts based on ADP. However, there isn’t normally this much separation in fantasy drafts between Jones, Montgomery (drafted 9.03) and Jamaal Williams (drafted 7.10). Jones was the most effective of the Packers backs last season, even though Williams was the late season starter. Williams should get first shot again due to Jones’ upcoming two-game suspension, but I do expect Jones to take over starter duties, and at this cheap price at my weakest position, definitely worth a shot here.

Rosters and Draft Board

So there you have it, my roster through 12 rounds (11 picks). This is pretty common how I would construct a team in a 12-team flex PPR draft – strong at wide receiver, top tight end and weaker at running back. I am okay with this because running back is often the position that can be acquired off the waiver wire early in the season thanks to the high turnover at the position, and it is more matchup dependent.

The less than usual thing is having the consensus number one quarterback, so running back is even weaker than normal. An alternative to this team might look something like Alex Collins or Jay Ajayi instead of Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo or Matt Ryan instead of Chris Thompson. Dion Lewis is still there but as an RB3. That roster is possibly even preferable – lots of love for Jimmy G this season – but as mentioned in part 1, not necessarily doable in many local leagues because quarterbacks are drafted earlier than this league.

Click the screenshots from Draft Buddy for all team rosters and rank of players drafted by position.

FanEx Rosters Teams 1-6

FanEx Rosters Teams 7-12

FanEx Position Rankings 1-30

FanEx Position Rankings 31+

FanEx 12-Team Flex PPR Draft Recap, Rounds 1 to 5

August 11, 2018 By Mike Leave a Comment

Le’Veon Bell is betting on himself again this season, and I am along for the ride, trading up and taking him 1.04 in the FanEx fantasy football experts league draft.

The annual FanEx draft is underway! This is my fourth year in this fantasy football experts league, and (toot, toot) I am the defending champion of the American Conference. Reviewing my FanEx history, I have back-to-back-to-back 8-6 regular season records, two playoff appearances and a championship.

This is a tough league format because only four teams make the playoffs, playing Weeks 15-16, instead of the more common six teams (of 12) playing Weeks 14-16. The three division winners make the playoffs and smartly – and fortunately – the wild card team is the highest scoring team regardless of record. That is how I qualified last year. A look at the final regular season standings shows I scored the second most points in the league. Look at the points allowed – over 300 points against higher than a few teams! A little amazing I managed an 8-6 record.

The format is pretty common flex lineup and point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. This is a 12-team league, starting lineup 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF and 1 Flex RB/WR/TE. Scoring 4 points per passing TD, 6 for rushing/receiving TD, 1 per 20 passing yards, 1 per 10 rushing/receiving yards, and 1 PPR all positions. Randomly assigned the eighth pick in the draft, here is how the 2018 draft is going so far.

Rounds 1 to 5

1.04 RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT

I have some concerns with Bell discussed in my first round pick considerations, but not enough concern to pull Bell out of the Top 3. For a more elaborate explanation of potential concerns about Bell, check out Doug Orth’s PPR Big Board, in which he ranked Bell outside his Top 10. Although Doug admits he would still draft him at least once this season. Maybe this is my once.

At any rate, I didn’t even have the fourth overall pick, but rather, the eighth. The 1.04 pick holder, Ian Allan, must also have some reservations, and offered to trade his 1.04 and 20th round pick for my 1.08 and 9th round pick. While I was perfectly fine to sit at eight (Hopkins or Odell?), I also thought, why not make the trade with Bell still on the board? Bell is betting on himself once again for a monster year to earn a big contract. I will take a shot betting on him, too.

2.05 WR Davante Adams, GB

Davante Adams and Michael Thomas seem joined at the hip this fantasy draft season. In my FFPC superflex draft I grabbed Adams at 3.01 and Thomas was taken right after. In this one, Alan Satterlee drafted Thomas right before my pick allowing me to increase my investment in Adams.

There are still many exceptional players available at this spot. The next six picks in order: Jerick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Rob Gronkowski and A.J. Green. Now who wouldn’t be happy with pretty much any of those guys at this point in time? The short story for me on Adams though is I believe the probability of him scoring double digit touchdowns is higher than almost any other receiver. Only two wide outs did it last season, him being one, with Aaron Rodgers only playing six games. A healthy Rodgers and departed Jordy Nelson, the stars are aligning for a potential special year for Adams.

3.08 WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN

To take a running back at this pick feels like I am reaching a little, although I am coming around on Miami Dolphins Kenyan Drake. As a value drafter, I like to take some chances to see if particular players get passed and make it to my next pick. Drake did not make it, getting drafted 4.01.

While the current tier of available wide receivers is of fair depth, including Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald and Allen Robinson, it seems to me Thomas stands out with a better combination of more skill and less risk than the other three (apologies Larry). Reports from Denver Broncos camp is Case Keenum is doing well connecting with Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. There are a bunch of targets in Denver to be spread around to not that many players, something called, “a narrow tree,” on Sirius XM fantasy radio recently. Good phrase.

4.05 QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

This one is a bit tough, and one reason these fantasy football experts leagues are not always the best guide to most fantasy football players local leagues. I know most of the guys I am drafting against will wait, wait and wait at quarterback. As of writing this the draft is in the 11th round. Here is the pick distribution of the quarterback position by round through ten:

Round	Number of QB Drafted
1-3	0
4	2
5	1
6	1
7	0
8	2
9	4
10	6

It is a huge waiting game. The consensus top guy though – Rodgers, obviously – should he fall past the third round? I considered him last time and he is still hanging around because everyone is sucking up RB, WR and the top TE. I wait at QB myself more often than not, but staying flexible, is this a fair value to add Rodgers, accepting I will be a little weaker at RB and WR? Yes, I think so.

5.08 TE Greg Olsen, CAR

The drafting of Rodgers motivated a couple owners to nab their starting quarterback, but not enough and not enough higher ADP tight ends like Evan Engram went between my fourth and fifth picks to allow a running back to fall to my liking. Thought I had an outside shot at Jay Ajayi, and more likely Lamar Miller, but neither made it.

Regardless of how David Njoku and Nick Vannett did last night, the tight end position is still thin overall, and in a PPR draft especially, I like the advantage of a reliable tight end. Engram is usually the next tight end off the board in drafts but I am more partial to Greg Olsen. Engram is very talented and young, but the new competition for targets on the Giants has me leery he can repeat or improve on last season. Olsen is old reliable for Cam Newton, and the two picked up where they left off when Olsen returned from injury. His final four games, including the Wild Card game, saw targets of 12, 6, 9 and 12.

Continued rounds 6 to 12, including screenshots of all team rosters and position rankings through 12 rounds.

FanEx FAD Experts League Fantasy Football Draft Recap

June 12, 2018 By Mike 2 Comments

Come on down, DeAndre Hopkins. You are my first pick in the 12-team, point-per-reception scoring, best-ball FanEx Fantasy Analysis Draft (FAD), at the 6th overall pick.

The FanEx Fantasy Experts League FAD – that stands for Fantasy Analysis Draft – is underway for the 2018 season. This is the first of my fantasy football experts leagues to get underway, and frankly, my first draft of the year with the exception of a couple of dynasty mocks. From the FanEx commissioner Chris Rito, “participants are expected to write a brief rationale for (their) pick.”

This is only my third year as a member of FanEx, but my first in the FAD. I always liked the concept of the FAD because I usually try in any draft – time permitting – to write draft pick comments in showcase league drafts, to provide my thought process behind the pick as opposed to simply the pick with no explanation as to why. The FAD seemed like a natural fit for me. This is a fantasy football draft recap of the FAD while it is ongoing.

League Format

FAD is structured as a draftmasters / best-ball league, meaning no trades, free agent pickups or even lineup submissions. Each week the optimal starting lineup is automatically started and scored. This is a 12-team league, starting lineup 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF, 1 RB/WR/TE and scoring standard performance plus 1 point-per-reception, 4 points per passing touchdown, -1 for interceptions. The team with the most total points at the end of the season is declared the FAD Champion. I was randomly assigned the 6th overall pick in the draft.

Round 1 (June 13)

The first pick was Todd Gurley by Team Chris Rito / Mike Nazarek. Team Chris Dolfi / Tom Walls followed that up with Le’Veon Bell. So, I need four players to decide between for my first pick. I am behind doing my projections and rankings (thanks World Cup), so I will for now defer to Draft Buddy with the FF Today projections to look at my top available options.

In doing that, I created a short Draft Buddy rules and scoring setup video for my FanEx draft.

I let the other picks before me play out – Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Antonio Brown – and I am up with 1.06. And the picks is…

1.06 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU

With all due respect to Tony Holm (drafting 5th) daring me to take RB David Johnson at this pick, I’ve been called worse than nuts before and will pass. Without panning Johnson too much, the Cardinals are undergoing a lot of changes that don’t give me a ton of confidence in the potential success of their workhorse running back.

On to DeAndre Hopkins, there are concerns about regression by his sophomore + small sample size quarterback, returning from a major knee injury, and an unsustainable target share by Nuk. Between these two top choices however I prefer the situation in Houston, and will put my faith in DeShaun Watson (early rehab reports are good), and Hopkins solidly in his prime at 26. I also echo Tony’s thoughts about WR versus RB value in this league format.

Rounds 2 to 5 (June 14-18)

The draft is going slow, which isn’t a surprise this time of year (World Cup!). At this point I will post the commentary I added to the draft report at MyFantasyLeague.com. Go there to read the commentary on picks by the other members of the league, and perhaps I will post again next week after we get through another 5-6 rounds, to assess how my team is shaping up.

2.07 WR Davante Adams, GB

Since I already drafted Hopkins in the first round, this was a bit of a tough call between Davante Adams and a running back, most likely Christian McCaffrey, as the next tier RB are getting thin-ish. One reason I typically prefer to draft near either end as opposed to the very middle of a draft is to be less restricted position-wise with every other turn a short turn around. Ultimately I chose Adams as BPA because of his situation – great QB, clear number one WR with Jordy Nelson departing – and trending performance – back-to-back double digit touchdown season entering year five at age 25. Adams is a safer pick at this point to be a major difference maker over a middling RB who could have trouble scoring.

3.06 RB Devonta Freeman, ATL

At my last pick I felt the current RB tier was getting thin, but thankfully my fellow drafters did not leave it completely bare. Enter Devonta Freeman, ranking 1st, 6th and 14th at the position 2015-2017. The slight drop off last season primarily due to the loss of OC Kyle Shanahan, an additional year to adjust to that change should help. Sign me up for the RB1 and primary pass catching RB on a team capable of being one of the top offenses in the league.

4.07 TE Evan Engram, NYG

I know I am reaching a bit here to add second year player Evan Engram, but I believe it is important to get a top tight end because of the advantage that player provides. There are not a lot of top TE to go around, and the points drop off somewhat significantly. As for Engram over Zach Ertz, it is a close call. I expect some regression from Ertz as he picks up some slack outside the passing game from the departure of Trey Burton. Engram performed well last season without Odell Beckham or Saquon Barkley. Does that open up more big play and scoring opportunities for Engram playing in what should be a much more dynamic offense? How much does he develop from his rookie season? Banking on Engram’s talent, I am positive-optimistic on those questions.

5.06 RB Derrick Henry, TEN

Derrick Henry is a tough one to peg. He’s impressed since his rookie season with 4.3 rushing yards per attempt, 11 touchdowns and shown to be a decent receiver when called upon. However, Henry played in the shadow of DeMarco Murray while fantasy players waited for something to happen to Murray so Henry could ascend to the workhorse back role and become the next Larry Johnson or Michael Turner. Yes, I’m dating myself.

Well now Murray is gone and the Tennessee Titans signed Dion Lewis to a 4-year deal. In today’s NFL, we as fantasy players almost don’t want a RB with no quality depth behind him, because the risk of overuse and injury is too great. So, Lewis’ presence provides some uncertainty to usage, but is not the worst thing in the world. Draft talent, talent usually rises to the top. Henry is a talented back reasonably priced at a mid-5th round pick.