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Faceoff – 2nd Ranked WR

August 17, 2009 By Dave 1 Comment

The Cardinals Larry Fitzgerald is the consensus top ranked fantasy wide receiver, courtesy of his outstanding performance last year and other worldly run in the playoffs. The Cardinals offense returns its nucleus and there’s little reason to think Fitzgerald won’t duplicate his performance of 2008. In fact, there’s a good chance he will be even better in 2009.

There is also general consensus that the 2nd through 4th ranked fantasy wide receivers come from a group of Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Randy Moss. The question is, who should be the 2nd ranked fantasy wide receiver on your draft board?

Randy Moss

Andre Johnson

There are sound arguments for all three. Andre Johnson had a stellar year in 2008, finishing as fantasy’s 2nd ranked wideout. The Texans offense looks ready to bust out after having a very solid year both running and passing in 2008. If quarterback Matt Schaub can actually stay healthy for 16 games, Johnson could hit 1,600 yards and 10 plus TD.

Calvin Johnson was superb in his 2nd season with the Lions, posting 78 receptions for 1,331 yards and 12 TD despite questionable play at the quarterback position and a running game that stumbled early. Kevin Smith figures to solidify the running game in 2009 but there are questions at quarterback, where Daunte Culpepper and Matthew Stafford, the 1st selection in the NFL Draft, are battling it out for the starting position. Johnson put up big numbers with marginal play at the position in 2008 so there’s no reason to think he can’t do it again in 2009, although there is some risk that the team will go with Stafford and risk the growing pains.

Moss gets quarterback Tom Brady back and has an opportunity to duplicate his 2007 season, perhaps the best performance by a wide receiver in the history of the game. Reports out of New England indicate Brady is fully healthy and Moss owners should reap the rewards of that. Brady validated those reports in his pre-season game appearance against the Eagles, throwing 2 TD in the first half. Expecting Moss to once again approach his 2007 production of 1,493 yards and 23 TD at the age of 32 is unrealistic. However, he put up 1,008 yards and 11 TD in 2008 and fans of the Patriots know that his numbers would have been much better had Matt Cassel been more accurate with the deep ball. Moss still has excellent speed and it is fair to say that he would have had close to 300 more yards and four or five additional TD had Brady been behind center in 2008. Based on that, Moss is the choice despite his age relative to Johnson and Johnson. ~ Dave

Trying to determine which of this talented trio will have the best 2009 is a little nitpicky. Before we get into the detail, keep in mind that this group represents a clear tier of players and if you are able to wait an extra round (i.e. from the 10th or 11th spot in a 12 team league) and still get one of these three, draft another position (RB) first. When it comes to projecting who to draft of these three, it’s less about predicting who will have the best year and more about assessing the risk. Based on his quarterback, lousy talent around him and shorter history in the league, Calvin Johnson clearly has the most risk of the three making this, for me, a question of Randy Moss vs. Andre Johnson.

Moss is the more intriguing option because of the incredible potential posed by a 2007-like season from Pats QB Tom Brady. Consequently a lot of owners will fall in love with Moss and expect huge numbers. Temper your enthusiasm. The Patriots’ 2007 was a once-in-a-generation occurrence and no matter how healthy Tom Terrific is, you’d be foolish to expect a repeat performance. In a great but not spectacular year, Moss will still produce great numbers in spite of the presence of Wes Welker.

Andre Johnson has emerged as a top wide receiver in football. As the feature player in a dangerous offence, you can expect him to be targeted as much or more than Moss. As Steve Slaton continues to improve, I expect the offence to open up a little offering Johnson even more opportunity to stretch out big gains and score touchdowns. With Owen Daniels likely to pick up more coverage underneath, Johnson should also profit from some play action and deep middle of the field routes.

You really can’t go wrong with Moss or either Johnson, but since I expect an improvement from the Texans overall, Andre Johnson is my pick by a hair. ~ Andy

Faceoff – 30 Year Old RB Outlook

August 14, 2009 By Dave 1 Comment

In the NFL, the widely held belief is that running backs decline rapidly once they hit the 30 year old mark and there are a number of major fantasy producers that hit that mark in 2009. LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers and Brian Westbrook of the Eagles turned 30 already and Larry Johnson of the Chiefs turns 30 during the season.

Tomlinson has ruled the fantasy landscape for much of the past decade, finishing as the top ranked fantasy running back twice, third three times, fourth and seventh twice, including last year, since joining the league in 2001. The consensus seems to be that he is now past his prime and not capable of recreating his past exploits.

Johnson burst onto the fantasy scene in 2005, courtesy of Priest Holmes injury problems, and finished as the second ranked fantasy back despite starting just nine games. [Editor’s note: Holmes missed half of his 2004 season and more than half of 2005. He turned 31 in October 2004.] Johnson followed that up with a second place ranking in 2006 but injuries, attitude and suspensions have derailed his last two seasons.

Westbrook has averaged 15.3 points per game and 215 points a season since earning a major role in the Eagles offense in 2003. However, he battled injuries last year, lacked consistency when he was in the lineup and had surgery in June to clean up bone spurs in his right ankle.

So which of these three players, if any, do you gamble on heading into 2009? Let’s find out.

Brian Westbrook

LaDainian Tomlinson

Evaluating older running backs is difficult, especially when you can see they are on the way down. You never know when there will be another stud season before the sun sets, and you always worry about this season being the one where the big slide into retirement starts. As a fantasy owner, you shouldn’t get emotionally tied to the player or to the stats he has put up in the past. Every player declines unless they hang them up early. The question is, when?

For the purposes of this discussion, I’m putting Johnson on the shelf. He is getting drafted rounds later than Tomlinson or Westbrook, so if you really want to buck the trend, you could draft a pair of these thirty somethings. Now that we’ve narrowed the field, is there an objective way to evaluate Brian Westbrook and LaDainian Tomlinson? There are three main things I consider: (1) age and player history, (2) competition for touches and (3) strength of schedule.

We know that both backs are about the same chronological age, but what about “football age”? Tomlinson has played in 16 games in every year except 2004 when he managed 15. Over his career he averaged 396 touches and has managed to stay mostly injury free while watching his production erode slowly from its peak in 2006. Westbrook has travelled a very different road. After easing his way into the Eagles offense early in his career, Westbrook averaged 324 touches per year the last three years. Despite this smaller workload and a slower start to his career, Westbrook seems to miss a game or two per year while being limited in others. Still, I give the edge to Westbrook here on potential to finish the season. While he seems to get dinged a little more historically, LT’s significantly higher average touch total is a big red flag that if one of them is going to go down fast and furious, Tomlinson is the more likely candidate.

In terms of competition for touches, both backs have young understudies getting set to push them for carries this season. Darren Sproles showed enough last year in LT’s absence to earn the Chargers’ franchise tag. HC Norv Turner has made it clear LT is still the main guy, but they will pick their spots utilizing Sproles on offense. The Eagles drafted LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round and have high hopes for him. It is a close call but we’ll lean to advantage Westbrook here for this season given the rookie status of McCoy vs. the veteran Sproles.

Looking at the strength of schedule, the Eagles play early games against New Orleans, Kansas City and Tampa Bay with a few middle of the road defenses as the season wears on thanks to their 2nd place schedule. San Diego does profit from playing in the weak AFC West, but they play a 1st place schedule plus face Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the first 4 weeks of the season. The strength of schedule also seems to point to Westbrook as the slightly safer pick.

This is a very tough call, but Westbrook is the pick this year over Tomlinson. Be sure to handcuff McCoy to Westy as insurance against injury. ~ Dave

This is a tough debate. All three are former studs who, despite their advancing age, are still talented players. The consensus third option would seem to be Johnson. However, he averaged 10.4 points per game last year despite a slow start to the season and playing for an offense that was truly horrible for a large part of it. He didn’t seem to run as hard as in past years but is still a powerful back who managed 874 yards and five TD in just 12 games last year. Plus, he figures to be motivated at least during training camp because his 2009 salary is not guaranteed and the team has added youngsters Kolby Smith and Jamaal Charles over the last two years.

Westbrook will play behind a stout Eagles offensive line on a team loaded with solid, if not superstar, skill position players. The Eagles added LeSean McCoy in the draft but Westbrook is clearly the team’s top threat at the running back position. The Eagles may look to reduce his role somewhat in 2009 in hopes of avoiding injuries and keeping him fresh for the playoffs. If healthy and even with a reduced role, Westbrook has the potential to land in the top ten.

Tomlinson figures to lose at least some playing time to Darren Sproles, who shined at the end of last season and in the playoffs. Although Tomlinson played nicked up in 2008, he still managed 1,531 combined yards and 11 TD while playing in all 16 games. As with prior years, the Chargers are loaded on offense and Tomlinson figures to reap the benefits at the goal line. Even if his yards go down, 12 to 16 TD seems reasonable. It says here that Tomlinson is the best option given his TD potential and the fact that Sproles really isn’t a threat to eat into playing time on 1st and 2nd downs. ~ Andy

Faceoff – Roy Williams a Top 10 WR?

August 11, 2009 By Dave 2 Comments

The Cowboys gave up a boatload of draft picks to obtain Roy Williams from the Lions last year in the hopes he would provide an explosive second option at the position opposite Terrell Owens. The move didn’t have the intended results as Williams bombed with just 19 receptions for 198 yards and a score in ten games in Dallas. Although Williams had to learn the playbook in a short period of time, his marginal production was still surprising.

With Owens released and now in Buffalo, Williams moves into the lead receiver position in Dallas and the team is counting on him to produce. With a solid stable of skill position players and an aging but still effective offensive line, the Cowboys figure to be a top ten offense in 2009. For fantasy purposes, the issue is whether Williams will be worth a relatively high draft pick that it will cost to get him.

Roy Williams

At 6’3″, 220 pounds and possessing good speed, Williams certainly looks the part of superstar receiver and potential fantasy stud. However, the bottom line is that he has one 1,000 yard season in five years in the league. On average, he has produced 56 receptions for 816 yards and six TD which makes him a decent low end second receiver for fantasy purposes. Now that he’s in Dallas, the Williams bandwagon is expanding but he certainly seems like a risky option where he is being drafted. With tight end Jason Witten expected to be the Cowboys top receiving threat and also an excellent red zone option, it remains to be seen how Williams will react to playing second fiddle. In addition, the team has received solid production from Patrick Crayton, they are high on young wideouts Miles Austin and Sam Hurd and will rely heavily on the running back trio of Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.

While Williams certainly has the talent and supporting cast to produce a solid season, there are more reliable options where his current draft position is. If he falls in your league, he’s worth taking a gamble on but don’t reach for Williams. ~ Dave

Roy Williams never reached his potential in Detroit, partly because of his attitude and partly because of the abominable team he was playing on during those years. The move to Dallas in 2008 was widely considered to be a rebirth for Williams as he would be playing on a good team in a high powered offense. Looking back we know that the transition didn’t pan out the way Williams owners would have hoped, but that doesn’t mean it is time to give up on him. Williams still has all of the characteristics that made him a high draft choice and now has a full year in the Dallas offense under his belt.

Looking at the situation in Dallas, Williams is really only competing with Jason Witten for catches in the passing game. Also-rans like Miles Austin and Sam Hurd are no threat to Williams, and Dallas will want to prove the investment in Williams and jettison of Owens was a positive move by the franchise. Naturally, the talented backfield will pick up a large portion of the offensive touches, but an effective running game will open up and ease the passing game. It might be just a gut feeling, but I think OC Jason Garrett will use the space created in the running game and the attention paid to Jason Witten to create openings for Roy Williams on the outside and in the deep zone.

Williams has the opportunity to land amongst the top 10 WR when all is said and done. Don’t pay that much for him, and you shouldn’t have to unless you reside in Dallas, but if you can get him as a late drafted WR2 or even WR3, you could be sitting on a difference maker for your fantasy squad. ~ Andy