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Stock Watch—Olympic Impact and Trade Talk

March 3, 2010 By arseneau Leave a Comment

With the Olympics wrapping up, and the trade deadline today, this week’s Stock Watch takes a bit of a different approach. Let’s have a look at whose Olympic performances might carry over into the NHL season, and who might be moving on deadline day.


Noteworthy Olympians

Pavol Demitra, C, VAN—Demitra’s injury problems and ability to produce when healthy are both well documented. This season has been a particularly disastrous one, and Demitra has posted just 4 points in 11 games with the ‘nucks. That being said, Demitra led the Olympics in scoring with 10 points, and was instrumental to the Slovaks’ inspired run. He won’t spend any time paired with a triggerman like Marian Hossa in Vancouver, but with the Sedins drawing the opposing team’s best checkers, Demitra could quietly post some numbers down the stretch.

Evgeni Nabokov, G, SJ—Nabokov’s meltdown against Canada in the quarterfinals was surprising to say the least. To be fair, Nabokov’s defence offered no support, and coach Vyacheslav Bykov probably should have yanked him sooner. Still, just ask Marc-Andre Fleury how much one loss can shatter your confidence. It took Fleury quite some time to return to form after his famous own goal at the 2004 World Junior Hockey Championship.

Brian Rafalski, D, DET—After three straight seasons of 50+ points, Rafalski was on pace for just 39 this year. He was outstanding in the Olympics though, posting 8 points through 7 games. As the Red Wings get healthy and start to click, look for Rafalski to post big numbers down the stretch.

Sergei Kostitsyn, RW, MTL—Kostitsyn earned six points in seven games for the Habs prior to the Olympics, and five in four games with Belarus. Keep in mind he put up those 5 points with absolutely no offensive support, as Mikhail Grabovski and Andrei Kostitsyn were both forced to miss the Olympics. With Mike Cammallerri still rehabbing his injured knee, the Habs would love to see Kostitsyn’s inspired play continue.

Rick Nash, LW, CLB—Nash may not exactly be a feasible “buy” in your league, but I have every reason to expect that his play will improve over the rest of the NHL season. This has been a difficult season in Columbus, but Nash was impressive throughout the Olympics, particularly in a shutdown role against Alex Ovechkin. Nash has often been viewed as a one-dimensional offensive player, but his play at the Olympics certainly seems to indicate he has matured.


Keep Your Bags Packed

Alexei Ponikarovsky, LW, TOR—Brian Burke must have been salivating when Montreal dished out a 2nd round pick to acquire Dominic Moore. Ponikarovsky is probably the second best offensive option expected to move on deadline day, after just Ray Whitney. Consider the fact that Ponikarovsky is still young, and could be locked up long term, and you could argue that Ponikarovsky would be an even better acquisition than Whitney.

[Editor’s Note: Between receiving this article from Iain, and publishing it, Ponikarovsky was moved to the Pittsburgh Penguins for prospect Luca Caputi and Martin Skoula to make the money work.]

Ray Whitney, LW, CAR—There’s a lot to like here from a rental perspective. Whitney has 8 seasons with 20+ goals, and is a weapon on the power play. He’s also won a Stanley Cup fairly recently, and brings loads of experience to the table. Whitney wants a contract extension before he will waive his no-trade clause, which could limit the Hurricanes’ bargaining power. As the deadline approaches though, it’s difficult to imagine Whitney passing up a trade to the likes of say, the Penguins, even without a contract in place.


Others Who Might Move

And Have Some Fantasy Value

Cory Stillman, Joe Corvo, Steven Reinprecht, Dan Hamhuis, Rostislav Olesz

There have been rumblings of Tomas Vokoun being moved, but I just don’t see it happening. Vokoun isn’t getting any younger, so he would only fit into the plans of a team that’s trying to win now.

A quick scan of the teams currently jostling for playoff position yields but a few teams who might want to improve between the pipes—Atlanta, Philadelphia, Washington, and Chicago.

Chicago is pressed up against the cap, and would need to move Brent Sopel and another high priced player to make this work. They could conceivably move Cristobal Huet, but there would be absolutely no reason for the Panthers to downgrade their goaltending situation without allowing themselves financial flexibility, unless there was a heap of draft picks or prospects coming their way, or the teams somehow worked out a three way deal.

Of the teams mentioned above, Atlanta is my personal favourite scenario. Management really needs this team to make the playoffs this year after dealing away Ilya Kovalchuk, or risk losing a significant chunk of their fan base. Atlanta has the cap space to pull this off, and stability in net could get this team into the playoffs.

On a final note, Jordan Leopold is worth watching now that he’s with the Penguins. His puck skills and offensive prowess could allow him to put up some big numbers, but the Pens already have Sergei Gonchar, Alex Goligoski, and Kris Letang as capable puck movers. Still, the Pens powerplay has underperformed so far this year, so Leopold could get a shot to see if he can shake things up.

Filed Under: Fantasy Hockey

Goalie Rankings

September 18, 2009 By John Leave a Comment

Of course your forwards need to put up strong numbers, and a solid defense is a necessity, but good versus bad goaltending can make or break your fantasy team. Here are my top 30 goalies if you were taking part in a fantasy hockey draft today.

Roberto Luongo

Roberto Luongo

Evgeni Nabokov

Evgeni Nabokov

Niklas Backstrom

Niklas Backstrom

  1. Roberto Luongo, VAN – Luongo’s a stud and the only goalie worthy of a first round pick, as the Canucks are the favourites to win the division.
  2. Evgeni Nabokov, SJ – Nabokov starts 75 games a season for a strong team which means a minimum of 40 wins.
  3. Niklas Backstrom, MIN – Backstrom has as much skill as any netminder but the Wild are mediocre at best.
  4. Marc-Andre Fleury, PIT – Fresh off a Stanley Cup win, Fleury will challenge for the wins lead among netminders.
  5. Martin Brodeur, NJ – The greatest goaltender of all time will have to be at his best for the Devils to make the playoffs this season in an incredibly competitive Eastern Conference.
  6. Miikka Kiprusoff, CGY – His numbers are diminishing with every passing season but with all the starts he gets, the wins are sure to come.
  7. Tim Thomas, BOS – Last year’s Vezina Trophy winner was a virtual wall for the Bruins, posting a freakish .933 save percentage.
  8. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR – Lundqvist has all the talent in the world, but the weak Rangers’ defense doesn’t bail him out too often.
  9. Cam Ward, CAR – The former Conn Smyth winner was an integral part of the Canes’ cup run last season.
  10. Cristobal Huet, CHI – He’s now the undisputed starter on a deep Blackhawks squad, with Nikolai Khabibulin leaving as a free agent.
  11. Ryan Miller, BUF – Miller had a productive 2008-09 season and now is vying for the starting spot on the USA Olympic team.
  12. Semyon Varlamov, WAS – The 21 year old could be the steal of your draft. The Capitals should contend for first place in the East, and if Varlamov starts even 60 games, he’ll hit the 40 win mark. He looked unbeatable for much of the playoffs.
  13. Steve Mason, CBJ – The rookie of the year hopes to dodge the sophomore jinx, but it’ll be hard to repeat his 10 shutout performance.
  14. Ray Emery, PHI – There couldn’t be a better fit for this notorious goaltender than Philadelphia. Emery dominated the Russian KHL last year and is poised for a big season to silence the critics.
  15. Jonas Hiller, ANA – Hiller was a save-machine for the Ducks during last year’s postseason, holding the usually-high scoring San Jose Sharks to just 10 goals in a 4-2 series win. He’s an ideal sleeper.
  16. Mike Smith, TB – Despite a less than impressive record last season, Smith had a .916 save percentage on arguably the worst defensive team in the NHL. The Lightning could be the most improved team this season, and Smith owners should reap the rewards.
  17. Chris Osgood, DET – Even though he was nothing short of amazing during last year’s Stanley Cup run, it’s hard to forget his regular season. The aging veteran could split time with backup Jimmy Howard.
  18. Carey Price, MTL – The former fifth overall pick has loads to prove after suffering through a sophomore slump last season. Playing in one of the world’s biggest hockey markets might be too overwhelming for this talented youngster.
  19. Jonathan Quick, LA – The Kings will probably be in a battle for seventh or eight spot in the Western Conference this year and a big part of that will be attributed to the play of Quick.
  20. Pekka Rinne, NAS – His successful rookie season was largely forgotten with Steve Mason stealing the show, but their numbers were pretty similar. If the Predators play even half-decently this season, Rinne could be a steal.
  21. Pascal Leclaire, OTT – The Sens’ new starter is a risky pick, having only started in more than 31 games once in his 5 season career, but it’s hard to ignore the 9 shutouts he had in 2007-08.
  22. Chris Mason, STL – He posted some solid numbers last year but the newly acquired Ty Conklin will be battling him for starts.
  23. Nikolai Khabibulin, EDM – He’s coming off an uncharacteristically strong season in a contract year. The alarms should be going off – avoid him if you can.
  24. Ilya Bryzgalov, PHO – The animated Bryzgalov is becoming frustrated with the team playing in front of him in Phoenix – just another of the many issues plaguing the Coyotes.
  25. Marty Turco, DAL – His skills are quickly diminishing. My bet is that he’ll be battling Alex Auld for starts by December.
  26. Tomas Vokoun, FLA – The Panthers lost their best player in Bouwmeester this offseason, and did little to replace his presence on the blueline – not a good sign for Vokoun. To make matters worse, Scott Clemmensen could fight for the starter’s job.
  27. Kari Lehtonen, ATL – The former projected stud has been stuck for five years now on terrible Thrashers teams.
  28. Craig Anderson, COL – The newly acquired Anderson is now a starter in Colorado after posting a .924 save percentage for the Panthers’ last season.
  29. Vesa Toskala, TOR – Toskala has a very short leash in Toronto, especially with “The Monster” Jonas Gustavsson playing his tail off at Leafs’ camp.
  30. Rick DiPietro, NYI – Avoid at all costs – he’s a huge injury risk and the Islanders didn’t sign Dwayne Roloson and Martin Biron this offseason for nothing.

Filed Under: Fantasy Hockey

3rd Quarter-Pole NHL Power Rankings

March 16, 2009 By John Leave a Comment

Since opening day in October, the San Jose Sharks have been the best team in the NHL. They have been poised and consistent, stringing together win streaks with regularity and rarely losing more than a game in a row. While centre Joe Thornton has been a sure top 10 fantasy pick for years, the Sharks have another veteran emerging as a legitimate first round pick for the next few seasons; goaltender Evgeni Nabokov. While not as flashy as a Roberto Luongo or as fundamentally sound as a Martin Brodeur, Nabokov can be your fantasy hockey savior if you’ve got him, and your worst nightmare if you don’t.

His value can be indicated by the 80 wins he’s compiled over the last two seasons, which is tops in the league. In our current era where most starting goalies suit up for 60 games or less, Nabokov’s 90% start rate is unmatched, especially when you consider the strength of the Sharks team in front of him. It’s likely that he will be at the top of my projections for 2009-10, so if you own him in a keeper league, consider him untradeable. With fantasy sports, nothing is certain, but Evgeni Nabokov is as close to a sure thing as you’ll find.

The surging New Jersey Devils appear to be the real deal, and Martin Brodeur doesn’t seem to have lost a step after his return from bicep surgery, as he tied Patrick Roy’s all-time wins record Saturday night in Montreal. Zach Parise has been a man possessed in the second half of the season, and should break the impressive 83 point career-high projection I had for him. Evidently, the Devils make for an extremely difficult matchup for any opponent in the first round of this season’s Stanley Cup playoffs.

The young Pittsburgh Penguins are up five spots to 11th in this edition of the power rankings. They have played a more inspired brand of hockey since the All-Star break, and their key additions, Chris Kunitz and Bill Guerin, have paid immediate dividends. A first round matchup with the Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, or Philadelphia Flyers could make for a long, but massively entertaining series.

I know it’s a tad late, but here are our Power Rankings at the 3rd quarter of the 2008-09 season.

1. (1) San Jose Sharks 11. (16) Pittsburgh Penguins 21. (21) Dallas Stars
2. (2) Boston Bruins 12. (19) Florida Panthers 22. (23) Toronto Maple Leafs
3. (3) Detroit Red Wings 13. (11) New York Rangers 23. (24) Los Angeles Kings
4. (4) Washington Capitals 14. (20) Columbus Blue Jackets 24. (26) Ottawa Senators
5. (9) New Jersey Devils 15. (12) Anaheim Ducks 25. (28) St. Louis Blues
6. (7) Chicago Blackhawks 16. (13) Buffalo Sabres 26. (18) Phoenix Coyotes
7. (8) Calgary Flames 17. (17) Edmonton oilers 27. (27) Tampa Bay Lightning
8. (5) Philadelphia Flyers 18. (14) Minnesota Wild 28. (22) Colorado Avalanche
9. (6) Montreal Canadiens 19. (25) Nashville Predators 29. (29) Atlanta Thrashers
10. (10) Vancouver Canucks 20. (15) Carolina Hurricanes 30. (30) New York Islanders
Note: Brackets indicate prior power rank.

Filed Under: Fantasy Hockey

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