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AL West News Roundup, Fantasy Notes

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Continuing my news roundup series, here is the AL West. It is a short one, as I’m running out of time before my NFBC draft, tonight.

  • Kendrys Morales will start the season on the DL. This is one long rehab from a broken leg. He can hit and field, but can’t run. At this point he could be back soon, but who knows? I think I’ll let someone else play the waiting game, while I wouldn’t mind Mark Trumbo late to see if he can continue his great spring into the start of the season.
  • Coco Crisp has missed a bit of action with a hamstring strain. Speedy guy, stealing bases and hamstring injury – those things really do not go together well. I picked up Crisp off waivers last year and he went well above and beyond the call of duty, but colour me skeptical he can continue that this year.
  • Maybe it is Erik Bedard who is worth a taking a shot on late in drafts instead of Jake Peavy. Peavy’s comeback ground to a halt, while Bedard has another strong start in Spring Training action against the San Diego Padres. He says he is throwing without pain for the first time in three years.
  • The Texas Rangers are really riding the fence as to whether Neftali Feliz will be a starter or the closer this season. Right now I’m not ready to make a stand it will be one way or the other, so I will just pass on him in drafts either way. Alexi Ogando is one possible closer if Feliz becomes a starter, but if I’m the Rangers I would be looking to acquire a closer from another team. I won’t be putting much draft stock in Ogando, or any other closer candidate currently on the roster as a result.

2011 Fantasy Baseball All Sleeper Team – Does Alex Rodriguez Count?

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Some players don’t get the love they deserve from the fantasy baseball community. Like Rodney Dangerfield, they just don’t get any respect. Our job is to figure out the players where that lack of respect is justified, and more importantly, what players in fact deserve our respect and attention on draft day, even though they are overlooked (or undervalued) by the majority of fantasy players.

People drafting at Mock Draft Central (MDC) are using that website for a variety of purposes, including trying out new draft strategies, so the results certainly aren’t something to take to the bank. However, Average Draft Position of each player does give a fairly accurate view of where players will be drafted in similar leagues.

I project the following players will perform a lot better than is currently being forecast by the users at MDC. Here is my 2011 All Sleeper Team:

Russell Martin, C, NYY – Martin has been in a downward spiral ever since his breakthrough season of 2007. Was that season an anomaly? Playing in the New York Yankees lineup will help us figure that out and you should enjoy the results. Benefitting from great coverage in the batting order, Martin should see some real pitches to hit and opportunities to build his resume. Fantasy players may be downgrading Martin due to concerns of up and coming prospect Jesus Montero taking over, but he is still raw behind the plate so expect it to be Martin as the primary backstop all season. Martin is a contract year, to boot.

Derrek Lee, 1B, BAL – Lee has something to prove after hitting .260 last year with under 20 homers (still hit 19) for the first time in three seasons. He required surgery on his right thumb in November to repair a torn ligament, likely the cause of last season’s decline. He will get that opportunity in a much improved Baltimore lineup and at the cozy Camden Yards, a good situation for Lee to show he’s not washed up. Don’t count on any steals now he is in his mid-30s, but the average and power should return. Lee’s value is currently deflated in fantasy drafts as he’s been sidelined in Spring Training with wrist tendinitis brought on by aggressively rehabbing his surgically repaired thumb. Lee expects to be ready Opening Day.

Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR – Hill had a breakthrough season in 2009 with career numbers across the board on a massive 682 at-bats. Fantasy owners who invested for similar results in 2010 were sadly disappointed, as Hill struggled most of the year due in part to a hamstring injury. His batting average was as smooth as an alligator’s backside (.205) and his home run total also took a bit of a dip, although he still popped 26 homers (down from 36 in ’09). Look for numbers closer to his 2009 campaign this season. If he’s still sitting on the draft board when your turn comes up in the 10th round, take the plunge.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY – How can the biggest name on the biggest stage be considered a sleeper? Maybe undervalued is a better word here, but A-Rod has failed to meet expectations each of the past three seasons. Admittedly, those were high expectations, but fantasy owners are a fickle bunch and are always looking for upside in their picks. At age 35, A-Rod doesn’t have the upside he once did, and some feel injury and missed time are in the cards for him annually at this point. He’s sliding in drafts to the late first round or even into the middle of the second round. He’s still going to provide very good stats, this year at a discounted price.

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, CLE – This guy will never be confused with A-Rod. He’s a very solid hitter, but provides no power. He will contribute in the other four offensive categories though, and that kind of production from a shortstop being drafted in the middle rounds is a bargain that you don’t want to pass up.

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT – Here is a player that can really help with speed at a relatively low price, and doesn’t hurt your average. His power is a little light, and playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates is a knock to anyone’s projected RBI and Run totals, but you could certainly do worse with a draft pick in the early teen rounds. Tabata is on a few sleeper lists, so watch as he could be climbing draft boards.

Shane Victorino, OF, PHI and Raul Ibanez, OF, PHI – These Philadelphia guys are just not as well respected as the guys they hit behind in the Philly batting order. Victorino and Ibanez won’t hit as many homers or drive in as many runs as a healthy Chase Utley or Ryan Howard, but they will provide much better value. Victorino’s stolen bases make him more desirable between the two. You can acquire him in the latter part of the first ten rounds and Ibanez in the middle rounds of your draft.

Jim Thome, DH, MIN – Even though Thome will be platooning in the designated hitter role, he will still do enough damage to warrant a spot on your team. He’s being drafted very late because of the lack of position for the big lefty, but 20+ homers for a guy being picked at the end of the draft is a great deal.

Jake Peavy, RHP, CWS and Erik Bedard, LHP, SEA – These two pitchers lost most of the last two seasons to arms injuries. They combined for just 48 starts over that time and fantasy players have a lot of doubts about their abilities to come back from these injuries to be anything better than mediocre. Both are showing signs that they are back up to speed and should be a strong play in your league. They should be had at the tail end of the draft, making them a low risk pick.

Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD – After a very difficult 2010 campaign, Broxton looks to regain control of his pitching arsenal and his closer’s job. He was one of the top three closers being drafted in 2010, but has fallen far from that lofty plateau. He’s a buy low candidate waiting to happen.

All of Lee, Hill, Cabrera, Tabata and Broxton will likely go in a similar round in your draft, so weigh the cost-benefit of each relative to how the rest of your team is shaping up. Also, keep in mind that ADP stands for Average Draft Position, meaning it isn’t a guarantee a player is going to last as long as his ADP. It is an average. Sometimes they’ll go earlier, and sometimes they’ll go later. Whether these players, or your own short list, if there is someone you really want on your fantasy team don’t hesitate to invest a little more – rebuffing the sounds of “r-r-r-e-e-each” from your fellow owners in the draft room – to ensure you get them so they are helping your team, not someone else’s.

Fantasy Baseball Injury Update: Pitchers

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Not surprisingly, because it happens every year, many baseball players finished the 2010 season with injuries. Players coming off injury will generally make fantasy owners question whether they should stay away or not, which could result in us finding a great buy low candidate.

We already looked at the status of key hitters coming off injury. Here is a look at some pitchers who lost time to injury last season and what we should expect for 2011.

 
Good Value

Brandon Webb was one of the best pitchers in the game from 2006-2008, but had his 2009 season cut short after pitching four innings on Opening Day, sustaining a shoulder injury. Webb never saw the field in 2010. His target is to be on the Texas Rangers’ active roster for Opening Day this season, but the team is being cautious with him and that may not be realistic.

Regardless, assuming he is healthy and starting again before long, pitching in the American League in Texas is always a risk to your ratios. A late round pick could be rewarded with early-to-mid round performance considering Webb’s talent if he can recapture his old form.

Joe Nathan was considered an elite closer going into 2010 before he blew out his elbow during Spring Training last March. Nathan looks good to go this spring and should resume where he left off for the Minnesota Twins. He is likely to slide in your draft, so pounce when the time is right on a bargain top closer.

 
High Risk, High Reward

Florida Marlins’ Josh Johnson was shut down for the season in early September with back and shoulder problems. The back is a small reason for concern, but the shoulder is a major one. Johnson is one of baseball’s elite pitchers when health permits. Johnson indicated in early February that he, “feels great” physically, but one or both of these injuries may linger into this season. Considering that it will probably take a relatively high pick to land Johnson, let someone take on the downside risk and go with a more sure thing.

New York Mets’ Johan Santana had elbow surgery in September 2009 and shoulder surgery in September 2010. Santana was baseball’s best pitcher from 2004-06, but those days are behind him. Elbow injuries are not so worrisome these days, but shoulder problems are hard to shake and tend to spell the beginning of the end of careers. He will not pitch until June at the earliest. Let him take up room on someone else’s roster in 2011.

Josh Beckett had a very untypically poor 2010 season for the Boston Red Sox. He suffered a lower back injury and when he returned, he lived somewhere between awful and worse. Although many consider his down year a one-off and expect a big bounce back, I recently decided to take a more conservative approach by reducing my original projections for him. He is still worth a mid-round pick as he will be solid at the worst on the powerful BoSox, but Beckett’s best days may be behind him.

Jake Peavy didn’t pitch after July because of a shoulder injury that required surgery in September. Like Santana, Peavy’s shoulder woes are reason for concern, especially after only 33 starts in the last two seasons. Even though he’s ahead of schedule in his rehabilitation, the White Sox have no timetable for his return. The White Sox were looking at Chris Sale as a possible starter until Peavy is healthy enough to return to the rotation, but the hope is Peavy is healthy with Sale slated for the bullpen. Peavy is worth a flier at the end of your draft, but don’t invest anything serious here. He could be dead weight on your roster for some time.

David Aardsma did a great job closing games for the Seattle Mariners during the last two seasons. Unfortunately, they didn’t give him a lot of save opportunities last year and likely won’t again this year. On the injury front, Aardsma had hip surgery in December and is still on crutches to help him get around.

He isn’t going to do much through Spring Training and is expected to miss the first few weeks of the season. His hip injury is something that might linger, or there could be some rust just getting back into shape even if the rehab goes well. He might be a good late round source for saves, but you’ll need to be patient to see any production, and be ready to cut bait if Aardsma can’t shake the injury.

 
Tread Carefully

Erik Bedard should be ready to start the season following shoulder surgery. He threw his first bullpen session of the year a week ago and reported no issues. Bedard has been hampered by injuries throughout his career, so tread carefully. When healthy, Bedard is very good, but those days seem few and far between as Mariners fans know all too well. He has nice value if you can get him late in your draft, but it is still a risky pick because Bedard has a habit of coming up lame and disappointing.

Rich Harden was injured again last season. That line has been used almost every year of Harden’s eight year MLB career. He’s only started more than 26 games in a season once and the safe bet is that he never will again. No one doubts that Harden has elite talent when healthy, but those days are rarely seen and a dinged up Harden is not quite like the real thing. Harden is returning for a third stint with the Oakland Athletics. Spend a late round pick on him, but don’t invest anything significant. Also, if your league doesn’t have a DL slot on your roster, just avoid Harden all together.

Chris Young is somewhat of a reclamation project for the New York Mets. After battling injuries for the past three seasons, including shoulder problems most recently, he looks like a low-risk bet for the Mets and maybe for your fantasy squad. If he remains healthy and comes even close to his career ratios of 3.80 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP, he would be a steal. The big question is whether he can return to pre-injury form.

Stephen Strasburg lived up to the hype by striking out 14 batters in his MLB debut. He went on to strike out 41 batters in his first four starts and the legend was being written. Then tragedy struck with an elbow injury that required elbow ligament replacement (Tommy John) surgery that ended his 2010 season. He isn’t due back until late this season at the earliest. The Washington Nationals have a 12 to 18 month timetable on his rehabilitation, and expect them to take it easy on him once he does return. Expect nothing from Strasburg in 2011, but look for a great bounce back in 2012.

Chien-Ming Wang missed all of the 2010 season with an injured right shoulder. The Nationals would like nothing more than for Wang to return to the form that saw him post back-to-back 19-win seasons for the New York Yankees in 2006-07. The encouraging news is that Wang pitched in the Instructional League without any problems, but remember this is a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 that has shoulder problems. He’s worth a late flier, but nothing more.