My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.
How to Read the Charts
The Los Angeles Angels are facing a RHP at home (Yovani Gallardo TEX who has faced 339 batters). On FanDuel the Angels are currently putting up 2.34 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Yovani Gallardo is currently allowing 127% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.97 (2.34 x 127%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.
When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.
It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.
Main Slate
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced |  |
 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
RHP at home | Yovani Gallardo TEX | 339 | 2.34 x 127% | 2.97 | +0.64 | 1.76 x 125% | 2.20 | +0.44 |
 |
RHP on road | Andrew Cashner BAL | 666 | 2.42 x 118% | 2.84 | +0.43 | 1.83 x 117% | 2.14 | +0.31 |
 |
LHP on road | Eric Skoglund KCR | 225 | 2.16 x 129% | 2.79 | +0.62 | 1.66 x 127% | 2.11 | +0.45 |
 |
RHP at home | Aaron Sanchez TOR | 430 | 2.54 x 109% | 2.78 | +0.24 | 1.93 x 108% | 2.08 | +0.15 |
 |
RHP on road | Jake Odorizzi MIN | 642 | 2.16 x 108% | 2.34 | +0.18 | 1.63 x 107% | 1.74 | +0.11 |
 |
RHP at home | Chase Anderson MIL | 609 | 2.22 x 101% | 2.24 | +0.03 | 1.68 x 101% | 1.70 | +0.01 |
 |
RHP at home | Stephen Strasburg WSN | 446 | 2.18 x 101% | 2.20 | +0.02 | 1.66 x 101% | 1.67 | +0.01 |
 |
TBD at home | TBD/Bullpen OAK | – | 2.16 x 100% | 2.16 | +0.00 | 1.65 x 100% | 1.65 | +0.00 |
 |
RHP at home | Luis Severino NYY | 709 | 2.35 x 91% | 2.15 | -0.20 | 1.77 x 93% | 1.65 | -0.13 |
 |
RHP on road | Jon Gray COL | 671 | 2.04 x 105% | 2.15 | +0.11 | 1.55 x 105% | 1.63 | +0.08 |
 |
LHP at home | Patrick Corbin ARI | 712 | 2.60 x 78% | 2.03 | -0.58 | 2.00 x 79% | 1.57 | -0.42 |
 |
RHP on road | Kyle Hendricks CHC | 700 | 2.07 x 95% | 1.97 | -0.10 | 1.59 x 97% | 1.55 | -0.05 |
 |
RHP on road | Felix Pena LAA | 320 | 2.02 x 97% | 1.95 | -0.07 | 1.53 x 97% | 1.48 | -0.05 |
 |
LHP on road | David Price BOS | 649 | 2.08 x 92% | 1.91 | -0.17 | 1.59 x 93% | 1.47 | -0.11 |
 |
LHP at home | Carlos Rodon CHW | 427 | 1.76 x 85% | 1.50 | -0.26 | 1.37 x 84% | 1.16 | -0.22 |
 |
RHP on road | Aaron Nola PHI | 736 | 2.12 x 69% | 1.47 | -0.65 | 1.62 x 71% | 1.15 | -0.47 |
Other Games (Not Main Slate)
| Lineup | Situation | Opposing Pitcher | Batters Faced | |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 | DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62 | ||||||||
| PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | PPA x % | Mod PPA | Dif | ||||
 |
LHP on road | Daniel Norris DET | 108 | 2.50 x 115% | 2.87 | +0.37 | 1.91 x 112% | 2.13 | +0.22 |
 |
LHP on road | Jason Vargas NYM | 333 | 2.09 x 132% | 2.75 | +0.67 | 1.60 x 131% | 2.10 | +0.49 |
 |
RHP on road | Anthony DeSclafani CIN | 395 | 2.39 x 109% | 2.61 | +0.22 | 1.80 x 110% | 1.98 | +0.18 |
 |
RHP at home | Jeff Brigham MIA | 17 | 1.85 x 139% | 2.57 | +0.72 | 1.41 x 131% | 1.85 | +0.44 |
 |
LHP on road | Derek Holland SFG | 644 | 2.32 x 96% | 2.22 | -0.10 | 1.79 x 95% | 1.71 | -0.08 |
|
RHP at home | Trevor Richards MIA | 450 | 1.85 x 106% | 1.97 | +0.12 | 1.41 x 105% | 1.49 | +0.08 |
 |
RHP at home | Carlos Carrasco CLE | 686 | 2.11 x 91% | 1.92 | -0.19 | 1.61 x 93% | 1.50 | -0.12 |
 |
RHP at home | Ross Stripling LAD | 448 | 2.18 x 84% | 1.83 | -0.35 | 1.66 x 88% | 1.46 | -0.20 |
 |
RHP at home | Jameson Taillon PIT | 681 | 2.06 x 89% | 1.83 | -0.23 | 1.57 x 91% | 1.43 | -0.13 |
 |
LHP on road | Wade LeBlanc SEA | 574 | 1.91 x 95% | 1.81 | -0.10 | 1.49 x 96% | 1.43 | -0.06 |
 |
RHP at home | Anibal Sanchez ATL | 462 | 2.04 x 87% | 1.77 | -0.27 | 1.56 x 87% | 1.35 | -0.20 |
 |
LHP at home | Joey Lucchesi SDP | 462 | 1.79 x 97% | 1.73 | -0.05 | 1.40 x 98% | 1.36 | -0.03 |
 |
RHP on road | Daniel Poncedeleon STL | 108 | 2.14 x 80% | 1.71 | -0.43 | 1.64 x 80% | 1.30 | -0.33 |
|
RHP on road | Zack Wheeler NYM | 688 | 1.93 x 83% | 1.60 | -0.33 | 1.49 x 84% | 1.25 | -0.24 |
 |
RHP at home | Gerrit Cole HOU | 726 | 1.96 x 80% | 1.57 | -0.39 | 1.51 x 80% | 1.21 | -0.30 |
 |
LHP on road | Blake Snell TBR | 612 | 2.08 x 74% | 1.53 | -0.54 | 1.60 x 75% | 1.20 | -0.40 |
Facebook
Twitter