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Straight Cheese Week 24 Streaming Starting Pitchers – Lauer, Erlin, Bieber

September 13, 2018 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians

Cleveland Indians Shane “Don’t Call Me Justin” Bieber baffled the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday in 6-2/3 of shutout ball. Chris picks him as a prime streaming option this weekend facing the Detroit Tigers on Sunday.

Fantasy baseball owners, this is the place where you come to get the Straight Cheese on less than desirable, questionably talented, less than 50% owned starting pitchers you can use for a spot start. Streaming pitchers is necessary to get those all-important counting stats for your roto league without drop-kicking your ratio stats into submission.

Before we dive into the dumpster looking for week 24 streaming starting pitchers, let’s take a look back at my picks from last week.

Week 23 Review

Warning: the summary below may be disturbing to some readers. Reader discretion is advised.

Name Date GS IP ER H BB K Dec ERA WHIP
Anthony DeSclafini CIN 9/7 vs SDP 1 4.00 4 8 0 3 – 9.00 2.00
Vince Velasquez PHI 9/9 @ NYM 1 4.00 5 7 1 4 L 11.25 2.00
Trevor Cahill OAK 9/9 vs TEX 1 2.67 3 2 6 1 – 10.13 3.00
Total for Week   3 10.67 12 17 7 8 1-2 10.13 2.25
Running Total   67 381.67 150 330 127 370 31-16 3.54 1.20

Wow and I thought the week before last was bad. Utter failure all the way around. I think what we are witnessing is some tragic regression with the Stream-O-Matic 2000. The July and August success was too much to sustain. Well, there is only one thing to do: PANIC! I’m giving you my last four pitchers to stream this week in a dire attempt to bring my September numbers back to something close to respectable.

Week 24 Streaming Starting Pitchers

The pitchers are listed in order of appearance as of Wednesday Friday (The Padres reshuffled their starting pitchers after this article posted on Thursday). Ownership info from Yahoo! (Y) and ESPN (E) and all 2018 stats are through Tuesday, September 11th.

LHP Eric Lauer, SDP
Owned Y2%/E2% · vs Texas Rangers – Friday Saturday, September 15th

Listen, there is a reason Lauer is sitting out on your waiver wire. He’s struggling a bit in his rookie season. Struggling to the tune of a 4.80 era (4.51 xFIP), 1.62 whip, 19.5 k% and 8.00 k/9 in 95 2/3 innings.

So why am I bringing him up here? Well, he’s facing the Rangers. I’ve been screaming from the mountaintops all season about the benefits of streaming against the Rangers when on the road. Against LHP on the road they have a 0.270 wOBA (29th), a 0.109 iso (29th) and strike out 26.1% of the time (last in mlb). I’m the least confident in Lauer of the four pitchers I’m suggesting this week but I’m tossing the dice a bit in hopes of avoiding snake eyes.

RHP Vince Velasquez, PHI
Owned Y39%/E30% · vs Miami Marlins – Saturday, September 15th

Vince was not kind to me last week when I targeted him on the road versus the Mets. I’m willing to forgive and forget this weekend as he faces the Marlins at home. He comes into the matchup with a 4.30 era (4.06 xFIP), 1.28 whip, 26.0 k% and 9.91 k/9 in 138 innings. The Marlins come in with a 0.298 wOBA (23rd), 0.144 iso (26th) and striking out 24.6% of the time (23rd). I’m looking (hoping) that Vince rebounds this weekend in this favorable matchup.

LHP Robbie Erlin, SDP
Owned Y3%/E1% · vs Texas Rangers – Sunday Friday, September 14th

Take everything I said about the Rangers on the road versus southpaws and apply to Erlin’s matchup on Friday. The difference is that Erlin has something Lauer didn’t: better home splits. Overall Lauer has a 4.42 era (3.47 xFIP), 1.14 whip, 20.0 k% and 7.21 k/9 in 93 2/3 innings. At home his numbers look like this: 2.92 era (3.54 xFIP), 0.95 whip, 19.8 k% and 6.75 k/9 in 49 1/3 innings. The strikeouts go down but the free swinging Rangers should give him a bump in that department.

RHP Shane Bieber, CLE
Owned Y37%/E41% · vs Detroit Tigers – Sunday, September 16th

Shane “Don’t Call Me Justin” Bieber currently has a 4.32 era (3.27 xFIP), 1.33 whip, 25.1 k% and 9.55 k/9 in 98 innings. Even with the high era and whip you can make the argument for rostering him for his strikeouts. His reasonable 3.27 xFIP (or what I like to call “true era”) indicates that he may have been unlucky and could be due for better days. Well, his last outing may be an indication that those better days are here. On Tuesday he baffled the Rays to the tune of 11 strikeouts, 3 hits and 3 walks in 6 2/3 innings of shutout ball.

This weekend he faces the Tigers and their 0.286 wOBA (last in mlb), 0.136 iso (28th) and 24.6 k% (22nd). Roll Bieber out there and thank me later.

Remember, these suggestions aren’t ludicrous. They’re @Roto_Chris.

Filed Under: Fantasy Baseball

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Thursday September 6

September 6, 2018 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Cincinnati Reds are facing a LHP at home (Eric Lauer SDP who has faced 419 batters). On FanDuel the Reds are currently putting up 2.35 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. LHP at home and Eric Lauer is currently allowing 115% more PPA than the MLB average (2.12 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.70 (2.35 x 115%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Reds LHP at home Eric Lauer SDP 419 2.35 x 115% 2.70 +0.35 1.77 x 115% 2.03 +0.26
Blue Jays RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 361 2.32 x 112% 2.59 +0.27 1.76 x 113% 1.99 +0.23
Indians RHP on road Sam Gaviglio TOR 443 2.16 x 112% 2.41 +0.25 1.65 x 112% 1.84 +0.19
Cubs RHP on road Stephen Strasburg WSN 419 2.17 x 102% 2.20 +0.04 1.66 x 102% 1.69 +0.03
Nationals RHP at home Kyle Hendricks CHC 679 2.27 x 94% 2.14 -0.13 1.72 x 96% 1.65 -0.07
Padres RHP on road Luis Castillo CIN 606 1.85 x 110% 2.04 +0.19 1.43 x 109% 1.56 +0.13
Braves RHP on road Zack Greinke ARI 706 2.12 x 85% 1.81 -0.32 1.62 x 87% 1.42 -0.21
Diamondbacks RHP at home Anibal Sanchez ATL 442 2.09 x 87% 1.81 -0.28 1.58 x 87% 1.38 -0.20

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Thursday August 30

August 30, 2018 By kopasetic Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Francisco Liriano DET who has faced 448 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.56 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Francisco Liriano is currently allowing 115% more PPA than the MLB average (2.119 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.95 (2.56 x 115%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

When Opposing Pitcher indicates TBD/Bullpen or hasn’t faced any MLB batters this season the lineup’s PPA shown is their overall PPA at home or away.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees RHP at home Francisco Liriano DET 448 2.56 x 115% 2.95 +0.40 1.92 x 113% 2.17 +0.25
Red Sox RHP on road Lucas Giolito CHW 641 2.38 x 118% 2.80 +0.42 1.80 x 114% 2.05 +0.25
Rockies LHP on road Eric Lauer SDP 398 2.15 x 119% 2.56 +0.41 1.64 x 120% 1.97 +0.32
Astros LHP at home Andrew Heaney LAA 610 2.28 x 101% 2.31 +0.03 1.73 x 101% 1.74 +0.01
Mariners RHP on road Frankie Montas OAK 250 2.16 x 101% 2.18 +0.02 1.66 x 103% 1.71 +0.04
Dodgers LHP at home Robbie Ray ARI 374 2.05 x 109% 2.23 +0.18 1.56 x 106% 1.66 +0.10
White Sox RHP at home Rick Porcello BOS 689 2.16 x 96% 2.07 -0.08 1.66 x 96% 1.60 -0.06
Diamondbacks LHP on road Rich Hill LAD 409 2.16 x 95% 2.05 -0.11 1.64 x 95% 1.56 -0.08
Athletics LHP at home Wade LeBlanc SEA 525 2.04 x 100% 2.04 -0.01 1.55 x 101% 1.56 +0.01
Pirates RHP on road John Gant STL 363 2.18 x 92% 2.00 -0.18 1.67 x 90% 1.50 -0.17
Padres RHP at home German Marquez COL 637 1.89 x 101% 1.90 +0.01 1.45 x 101% 1.46 +0.01
Braves LHP at home Mike Montgomery CHC 423 2.14 x 88% 1.89 -0.25 1.63 x 90% 1.47 -0.16
Angels RHP on road Justin Verlander HOU 691 2.23 x 83% 1.86 -0.37 1.70 x 85% 1.45 -0.25
Tigers LHP on road J.A. Happ NYY 596 1.95 x 95% 1.85 -0.10 1.50 x 94% 1.41 -0.09
Cardinals RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 385 2.00 x 90% 1.80 -0.20 1.53 x 92% 1.41 -0.12
Cubs RHP on road Mike Foltynewicz ATL 595 2.15 x 82% 1.76 -0.39 1.65 x 82% 1.36 -0.29

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.12 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.62
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Indians RHP at home Jake Odorizzi MIN 597 2.51 x 107% 2.68 +0.17 1.89 x 106% 1.99 +0.11
Brewers TBD on road TBD/Bullpen CIN – 2.09 x 100% 2.09 +0.00 1.61 x 100% 1.61 +0.00
Reds LHP at home Wade Miley MIL 214 2.40 x 80% 1.92 -0.48 1.81 x 81% 1.47 -0.33
Twins RHP on road Mike Clevinger CLE 670 2.02 x 90% 1.81 -0.20 1.54 x 91% 1.40 -0.14

Filed Under: Daily Fantasy Baseball

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