edwin encarnacion Archives

12-Team Roto Draft Recap From 7th Pick Starts Scherzer, Votto

March 30, 2018 By avanfossan 1 Comment

Writer Andy Vanfossan made sure he got an ace drafting Max Scherzer in the 1st round, but followed up with a solid offensive contributor in Cincinnati Reds 1B Joey Votto.

The weekend of March 24-25th was officially, or unofficially, national fantasy baseball draft weekend. Millions of fantasy players from all areas of the country met at homes, bars, restaurants or anywhere else 12-16 grown adults could congregate in front of laptops, phones, and cheat sheets to pick the greatest make-believe team they could.

This author was a proud participant. We have a 12-team 5×5 league with the standard categories except one, in pitching, that is always a bone of contention – complete games instead of WHIP. This has been a hot-button topic since I joined the league ten years ago. It hasn’t changed but it really makes owners think about their pitching picks.

I had the 7th pick overall and after much time spent doing mock drafts, referencing Draft Buddy and other resources and, dare I say, some soul searching, I decided to go with Max Scherzer. I went with this pick for a couple of reasons. For one, I wanted a stud pitcher out of the gate. I was looking for somebody who would get me K, a sub 3.00 ERA and wins. With Schrezer in the National League East, I figured this would be the best option for me. Clayton Kershaw went 4th overall.

For my next pick, I needed a hitter. I was torn between the best player available or the 6th best outfielder. By the way, Bryce Harper went 11th. I wouldn’t say I “settled” but I did draft Joey Votto. I couldn’t pass up the projected .320 average, 36 home runs and 100 plus RBI. There may have been a couple players with a tick more home runs but none of them will hit .320 like Votto will.

I was extremely happy with my third through fifth picks – Josh Donaldson, Starling Marte and Edwin Encarnacion. Donaldson and Marte come with a few injury risks but the upside for both of them was too much to pass up. Donaldson is in his walk year and has finished in the Top 10 of MVP voting four of the past five years. Last year, he was hurt the first part of the year but finished on a huge hot streak. I fully expect this to continue if he stays healthy, a caveat for many players.

Marte was a wildcard. As a Minnesota Twins fan, I really wanted to take Byron Buxton in the 4th round but I’m still not sold on his overall offense. Yes, he did have a solid if not great second half last year but it’s a pretty small sample size to consider taking him in the fourth round. Marte should get me double digit home runs as well as stolen bases. He will be counted on to produce for a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that should be decent but by no means elite.

Encarnacion was a luxury pick. We have an infield spot or utility spot and I decided to add more power. I drafted Encarnacion the past three seasons and he hasn’t disappointed. He’s not going to steal bases but you can pen in 110 RBI and at least 35 home runs. With the protection of his lineup, and the AL Central division, he will put up huge numbers.

Rounds six through eleven I nailed down two closers – Felipe Rivero and Jeurys Familia in the 7th and 10th rounds, two starting pitchers – Aaron Nola in the 6th and Jake Arrieta in the 11th – along with my second outfielder, Domingo Santana. Looking back on it, I probably should not have taken two Phillie pitchers but I like their upside. Nola will learn from Arrieta and Arrieta’s numbers at Citizen Bank Park are solid.

Rivero and Familia aren’t household closer names but each will get me saves. And I didn’t need to reach to get them. Like a good friend of mine always says, when drafting closers on bad teams, someone has to close those games out. Might as well get me some saves in the process.

Santana was the best available outfielder. I liked his power and speed and he is projected to hit anywhere from 26-30 home runs and drive in 90-100 runs. He also is projected double digit stolen bases, which is a plus. The downside is he’s no higher than a .265 average and has a tendency to strike out. I guess I could say I took a chance drafting him with the outfield situation in Milwaukee. I do think with his power and speed, they’ll find a place for him in the everyday lineup.

Without going into detail on every pick, I’ll end with what I thought were the best two late round picks on my team. I snagged Aaron Sanchez in the 16th round and Addison Reed in the 21st and final round. Taking two pitchers who are kind of in limbo is a high risk-high reward play. Sanchez has a history of blister issues. Jays Journal blog indicates, “Sanchez may be the biggest key to the Blue Jays’ playoff aspirations in 2018”. If he is healthy and can maneuver through the tough AL East, he is a steal in the 16th round.

Reed is another high risk-high reward pick. With the Twins signing Fernando Rodney, they are banking on the 41 year old closing games in 2018. Rodney’s track record though of starting out slow may give Reed a chance at closing games. With the Twins in win now mode, I think the leash on Rodney will be short and Paul Molitor will be ready to turn over the opportunities to Reed sooner rather than later.

So, there it is. A somewhat comprehensive look at my draft. The 7th pick wasn’t ideal but I thought I got some good value and am strong in the places where there wasn’t a lot of depth. As Chris notes, but I will reiterate it here: just because the draft is over and went well, there is still a lot of work to be done. Very true, let the games begin.

Edwin Encarnacion Will Outperform Jose Abreu

March 28, 2018 By avanfossan 1 Comment

Cleveland Indians 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion is 35 but Andy VanFossan isn’t worried about a decline just yet, and he expects we should continue to see the “Edwing” plenty in 2018.

It’s getting closer to Opening Day 2018 and that means fantasy baseball drafts are in full swing (no pun intended). If you haven’t drafted yet, first base is probably something that you’ll look at starting in round two or three depending on the amount of teams in your league.

I’d like to throw a name out there that has been one of the better power hitting first baseman this decade – Edwin Encarnacion. It’s easy to get caught up with the desire to add Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo but, since 2012, Encarnacion has averaged the following:

AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
539	91	39	110	5	.268

Those are solid numbers for a guy who contributed to two high-powered offenses, the Toronto Blue Jays (2012-16) and Cleveland Indians (2017). He does his job when runners get on and he’s not afraid to take a walk if necessary.

One benefit of Encarnacion that sometimes gets overlooked is that he averages over 633 plate appearances. With today’s players seemingly always missing time, especially with the new 10-day DL that MLB implemented last year, you see a lot of players getting fewer at-bats over the course of the season. Primarily playing DH helps Encarnacion stay healthy and in the batting order everyday.

One player that is close in draft rankings to Encarnacion is Jose Abreu. Abreu’s consensus player ranking at FantasyPros is 30th overall, while Encarnacion’s is 41st. Their NFBC Average Draft Position is about a round and half apart, Abreu in the early 4th round and Encarnacion in the mid-5th. Six ranking spots may not seem like much but let’s look at one key difference – each player’s lineup.

Abreu is in a Chicago White Sox lineup that is loaded with potential, albeit still considered to be in a rebuilding phase. Abreu’s only protection is Avisail Garcia, projected .282 AVG, 16 HR and 71 RBI, hitting fourth, and Tim Anderson, projected .266, 15 HR and 48 RBI, batting second.

Encarnacion by contrast is in a loaded Cleveland lineup. Projected to clean up, Encarnacion has all types of protection from Jose Ramirez, hitting third, and Yonder Alonso, hitting fifth. Ramirez is coming off an MVP-type season and is projected .306, 20 HR and 75 RBI, while Alonso is projected .263, 15 HR and 54 RBI.

That’s not including leadoff hitter Francisco Lindor and number two hitter Jason Kipnis. Just from a lineup standpoint, Encarnacion should have more opportunities to drive in runs and in turn be driven in from a much deeper Cleveland lineup.

One concern that comes up with respect to Encarnacion is age. He turned 35 in January and, rightfully so, many fantasy players are concerned about a decline in production. The question is will it be a slow burn or will he fall off a cliff? The cliff can happen (see: Jose Bautista, Mark Teixeira), but it is difficult to predict as every player is different. The lineup around him and not having to play the field much will help with his health and “freshness” throughout the year.

FanGraphs’ profile of Encarnacion indicates, “despite his advanced age, there are no real red flags in EE’s profile, aside from a strikeout rate that reached a career high.” I would rather take a chance he maintains the level of production we’ve come to expect, at a discounted draft price, until the metrics take more of a turn for us to expect otherwise.

Source	AB	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
2018 (Zeile)	516	88	35	100	2	.252	.357	.504
2018 (Steamer)	540	93	37	108	2	.259	.363	.513
2018 (ZiPS)	490	79	31	99	2	.263	.364	.506

Encarnacion is forecast to hit 35 homers and drive in over 100 runs per Steamer projections. His batting average in 2017 was the lowest its been since 2010, but if he can get that closer to his norm, then we are looking at a player who will add value to your squad relative to his cost.

Remember, last year Encarnacion started out slow adjusting to his new home in Cleveland but ended up the year posting numbers consistent with his career. Having a year under his belt with the Indians, he should get off to a good start and have another solid season. Don’t shy away from Edwin and don’t be surprised when you outproduces Jose Abreu.

Thoughts on Five Players — Stanton, Bird, Claudio, Mazara, Rosario

March 26, 2018 By Giles Clasen 1 Comment

New York Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 50 home runs again this season. Writer Giles Clasen points out he did that in 159 games played, over 40 more than he averaged his 7 prior seasons.

It is the final week of prime fantasy baseball drafting. Here are some thoughts on five players that could prove useful whether you are still drafting, or if you are ready for your players to hit the field Opening Day.

Giancarlo Stanton, NYY

Giancarlo Stanton hit 59 home runs in 2017. That is a near mythic number and his move to Yankee Stadium gives Stanton the opportunity to hit even more homers this season. But one number on Stanton’s stat line last year was a fluke – 159. Stanton played in 159 games in 2017.

Over the previous 7 seasons Stanton averaged 118 games. Stanton seems to get injured on the job more frequently than a coyote in hot pursuit of a road runner. So don’t be distracted by what Stanton can do when he is healthy, because most years Stanton isn’t healthy. And staying healthy is a skill just like hitting a home run. Not all players have it, and I don’t believe Stanton does.

I have Stanton playing fewer than 130 games. He may still hit 40 home runs in those games, but I won’t own a single share of him this year.

Alex Claudio, TEX

The Rangers have a closer, but does anyone want to draft him? Alex Claudio throws his fastball just 86 mph. That is a tick faster than you can legally drive on Texas highways. Claudio does throw a cartoonish slider and changeup that can fool batters, but no-one would call any of Claudio’s pitches elite.

Claudio’s success comes from keeping opponents guessing by varying his arm slot and pounding the strike zone. This approach was very effective at getting ground balls last year, but lead to only a 6.10 K/9 – not even close to top tier, and not what you hope for from your closer.

Still, Claudio doesn’t have a lot of competition in Texas so his job appears to be safe, and his unique approach could be very effective giving you 25-30 very cheap saves and a sub 3.00 ERA. I am eagerly snatching him up in the 22nd round.

Nomar Mazara, TEX

Another Ranger who is going to make fantasy headlines this year is Nomar Mazara. Mazara has been on my radar since his minor league days, but so far he has failed to be a Top 100 player.

I believe this year Mazara turns the corner from average every day player to elite fantasy option. He’ll do that by decreasing his ground ball rate, increasing his fly ball rate and improving against left handed pitching.

Mazara showed his new approach last year, increasing his fly ball rate from 30 percent in 2016 to 34 percent in 2017. It didn’t pay dividends then, but I think this year, when combined with his pure power and better luck, Mazara puts more fly balls over the fence.

Mazara will have to overcome his inability to hit left handed pitching to really progress, but that has been his sole focus this offseason. The Rangers have a lot of faith in Mazara and batted him third the majority of the 2017 season despite his shortcoming. He’ll likely maintain that position in the heart of the order in 2018.

Mazara’s athleticism, opportunity and skill make me believe he’ll get left handed pitching figured out. I don’t think he can improve on his RBI total from last year, but I see his average and home run total increasing to .275 and 31 respectively, making him a valuable four category fantasy option going in the 13th round.

Greg Bird, NYY

One player who’s ADP baffles me is Greg Bird. I don’t think he is going too high or too low, really. I just can’t figure out the logic of drafting him at all. The reason is we have almost no data for the guy to get a true sense of what to expect. He had a solid rookie outing in 2015. Then Bird missed all of 2016 with a labrum tear and sat out most of 2017 with a foot injury. On top of that the 2017 he played was ugly. He managed to hit only .190 in 48 games.

Greg Bird’s spray chart shows why teams effectively use the shift against him (source: FanGraphs)

I guess the two things that stand out to me from his 2017 numbers are his BABIP and batted ball profile. Bird had a .194 BABIP last year. That is worse luck than I experience in Vegas. If Bird can get to league average BABIP then he’ll earn his ADP and then some.

However, the reality is Bird’s pull tendencies can be effectively defended using a shift. So far Bird hasn’t been able to overcome defensive shifts and managers know they can leave the third base side of the field empty when Bird is up to bat. I’m afraid Bird’s BABIP was the true story last year and not brought about by his favorite pet – a black cat named Jinxy. If Bird can’t overcome the shift then his luck won’t change and he doesn’t belong on your team.

On the other hand when Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge and Bird were all in the minors together, the thinking was Bird would turn into the best of the three long term. Bird’s rookie numbers pointed to a promising future. When you consider Bird’s ability to put the ball in the air combined with his pull power you can see a path to 35 home runs and a Top 75 finish on the ESPN Player Rater.

Bird is too much an unknown to be on any of my teams in 2018. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me if Bird gives you a better return than Edwin Encarnacion despite being drafted in the 13th round.

Amed Rosario, NYM (Plus a dig at Kyle Schwarber)

If you’re like me you already know the player on your team who is most likely to be dropped during the first two or three weeks of the season. The only reason you took Kyle Schwarber was because you had a short leash lying around.

So, if you’re like me, and to counter the anticipated drop, you already know which undrafted players you’re most likely to pick up. The player I am keeping a close eye on is Amed Rosario. I love his speed! Statcast ranks Rosario as the sixth fastest player in baseball. Rosario also has the potential for double digit power.

Rosario wasn’t ready for major league pitching when he was called up in 2017, striking out nearly 29 percent of the time, but he hit for a high average in the minors, so I am holding out hope.

I think if the Mets take away his coffee Rosario might show a bit of patience at the plate and become a viable fantasy short stop. Rosario’s spring training numbers look good so far. He is hitting .316 and has significantly cut down on his k-rate from last year.

Although Rosario has no steals this spring, so I worry the Mets may wrap every player in bubble wrap and play with tremendous caution in an attempt to avoid injuries. If this happens Rosario may not have a green light on the base paths and will lose a lot of his potential value.

Who could blame new manager Mickey Callaway for wanting to keep his job by fielding a healthy team? No one wants to see a repeat of the comedy of errors that was the Mets 2017 season.

So I am watching and hoping that Rosario can reduce his strike out rate and has a little freedom to run. If he does those things then he’ll be the first player I grab off the waiver wire.