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Training Camp Fantasy Football News and Notes

August 5, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Confirmed: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster requires surgery on his injured groin and will therefore go on IR-designated to return. This is a big hit to the Texans and fantasy owners. Sophomore Alfred Blue is our best bet to soften the blow.

Here is a recap of key NFL news and notes from the last week impacting the fantasy football value of the players mentioned and their teammates. The big news is of course Arian Foster’s injury. I drafted him a week ago at the 12 spot in the $350 entry Footballguys Players Championship, so that really sucks!

Otherwise there are a number of key or interesting notes out of training camps prior to the first preseason games, many of which will factor in to our next projections and rankings update.

Free Agents of Interest

RB Chris Johnson
RB Pierre Thomas

Potential Roster Cuts

RB Trent Richardson, Raiders

Baltimore Ravens

Rookie WR Breshad Perriman is currently limited with a bruised knee. The more time he misses, the less likely he can make an immediate impact, although a couple rookies (Beckham, Bryant) did pretty well last season after sitting the first third of the season.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills QB situation is a muddled mess of low expectations regardless of who wins the starting job, but we need to know and the tea leaves suggest it is Matt Cassel right now based on experience.

Carolina Panthers

WR Stephen Hill was placed on IR, ending his comeback.

Chicago Bears

Kevin White is sidelined with a shin injury suffered during OTAs. He’s on the PUP (preseason version, no immediate panic necessary), but it isn’t looking good for him to be in the starting lineup anytime soon at this point. Eddie Royal gets a boost.

Cleveland Browns

RB Terrance West has a calf injury, while rookie Duke Johnson has a hamstring injury. The only one not complaining and perhaps due a bump up our rankings (?) is Isaiah Crowell.

Dallas Cowboys

A lot can change rather quickly, but the highly coveted starting RB job appears to be Joseph Randle’s to lose at this point. Darren McFadden is already dinged up.

Detroit Lions

RB Joique Bell is rehabbing from an Achilles’ and knee injury with no set timetable to return. This appears to be a little more serious than early drafts would indicate, as news of his health was pretty quiet. Heck, didn’t we see a “1,200 yard” prediction out of Bell just a few weeks ago? Rookie Ameer Abdullah has an opportunity for a larger role in the backfield and represents a good target for a later drafted RB.

Houston Texans

The news bigger than the sum of the rest of this entire update, Arian Foster suffered a groin injury. It is serious, requiring surgery which will put him on IR-designated to return (after Week 10), as reported by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle.

Behind him we prefer sophomore Alfred Blue, but they also have Jonathan Grimes, Chris Polk and are evaluating free agents including Pierre Thomas. Take a shot on Blue, but it could easily be a mess. Even if Foster can return, 10 weeks is a long time to hold a player on your roster (unless you have an open IR spot), so I wouldn’t even consider adding him in a draft unless the pick is really low.

No clarity on who has a leg up in this QB battle, Brian Hoyer or Ryan Mallett.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Allen Hurns is ahead of Marqise Lee on the depth chart, starting opposite Allen Robinson.

New York Giants

The team added WR James Jones, which is a bit curious since reports on Victor Cruz’ recovery are positive. Still, Jones might be worth an add in a 30-roster spot best-ball league.

New York Jets

Early indications are Geno Smith appears to be ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting QB job.

Another rookie WR with an injury, this time Devin Smith has a punctured lung (ouch) and will miss 4-6 weeks.

Oakland Raiders

RB Trent Richardson is in danger of being released by the team. My guess is you are already way ahead of that potential transaction with respect to your fantasy team. Michael Dyer is a name to keep tabs on from the Raiders backfield.

A player intriguing me lately with positive reports out of camp and drastically lower ADP than his rookie teammate is Michael Crabtree.

Philadelphia Eagles

QB Sam Bradford is cleared for 11-on-11 drills with no restrictions.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Martavis Bryant is out 7-10 days for now with an elbow infection. His ADP has risen steadily in recent weeks, likely to the point of him being overvalued. This should slow that down for now.

Further putting the brakes on the Bryant hype train, QB Ben Roethlisberger stated recently Markus Wheaton will start in 2-WR sets opposite Antonio Brown. The fantasy pecking order could still easily be Brown, Bryant, Wheaton, but it gives one pause from being too bullish on Bryant. And maybe Wheaton is worth a late flier here or there.

San Diego Chargers

Rookie RB Melvin Gordon is apparently struggling with pass protection, which is no surprise from a rookie and will not help keep him on the field. Happy to have him in dynasty leagues but not that excited about using a 3rd round draft pick in redraft leagues to own him. More can go wrong than right.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The team named Doug Martin their starting tailback. This is what we expected to materialize from training camp. Hopefully it sticks, and the announcement will push his ADP up for those who have been asleep at the wheel up until now. I’ve been getting him as my third RB in drafts, most recently at the end of the 6th round in this best-ball league.

Chicago Bears Team Report

June 29, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Chicago Bears QB Jay Cutler was a solid fantasy QB over the first six weeks of the season last year, before regressing badly. Minus Marc Trestman and Brandon Marshall, but plus Adam Gase and Kevin White, could – could – mean good things in 2015.

QB Jay Cutler

For all of the flak he took for his performance last year, Cutler was actually a solid fantasy quarterback over the first six weeks of the season, averaging 24.2 PPG with 1,676 yards passing and 13 touchdown passes (including two or more in five games) to go along with six interceptions. After that, he regressed badly, averaging just 18.9 PPG while throwing for 2,136 yards, 15 touchdowns and 12 interceptions over his final nine games as the Bears collapsed, going 2-7 in those games. In 2015, there is plenty of chance in store for Cutler as he has a new head coach in John Fox, a new offensive coordinator in Adam Gase and a new starting wide receiver in rookie 1st round pick Kevin White with Brandon Marshall having been traded to the Jets. Overall, Cutler averaged 21.0 PPG last season, his highest average since the 2008 season. Balancing that out is that he averaged 17.5 PPG during the 2009-2013 seasons. What’s the takeaway? Cutler just might take to Gase’s offense but there really isn’t any point in reaching for him. He rates as a mid-tier QB2 with upside and risk. Enjoy the ride if you grab him.

RB Matt Forte

For several years, Forte has been considered a solid upper tier RB1 with little risk for fantasy purposes. However, at 29 years of age and coming off a season in which he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, there is some concern that he will see a decline in his production in 2015. The Bears seem to agree since they have yet to sign him to a contract extension as he enters the final year of his contract. Not helping Forte’s prognosis is the departure of head coach Marc Trestman, who funneled Forte the ball in the passing game as he set an NFL record for running backs with 102 receptions. It was his usage as a receiver that allowed him to finish as the 4th ranked fantasy running back with 1,846 total yards and 10 touchdowns. On the plus side, the Bears have little depth at running back, almost guaranteeing that Forte will approach his career average of 21.1 touches per game. And it is that heavy workload that should allow Forte to remain a mid-tier RB1 in 2015 barring injury, not a major concern for a player that has missed just four games during his seven year career.

RB Jeremy Langford

With Matt Forte scheduled to be a free agent at the end of the season and Ka’Deem Carey looking more like a bust as a rookie than Forte’s eventual replacement , the Bears used a 4th round pick in this year’s NFL Draft to acquire Langford. The 6’1”, 208 pound Michigan State product possesses solid speed but his lack of agility and propensity for bouncing runs outside could hinder him in the pros. Although it is uncertain whether he is viewed as a potential long term replacement should Forte leave Chicago, Langford rates as a mid-tier dynasty prospect and a must-have handcuff for Forte owners should he win the backup job during the preseason.

RB Ka’Deem Carey

We never understood why the Bears used a 4th round pick on Carey in last year’s draft and it appears that it took them a year to agree. The 5’9”, 207 pound Arizona product enjoyed a stellar collegiate career, scoring 71 touchdowns while nearly topping 4,500 rushing yards, but a low 40 time (4.7 seconds) rendered him a low quality prospect and a reach as a 4th round pick. Sure enough, he rarely played other than in three blowout losses when he totaled 118 yards on 22 carries. In the seven other games that he appeared him, he carried the ball 14 times for 40 yards. With little speed and not much shake and bake, Carey may not even be on the Bears roster come opening day.

WR Alshon Jeffery

After a breakout performance during his 2nd season in the league in 2013 when he caught 89 of his 150 targets for 1,421 yards and seven touchdowns, Jeffery saw his production decrease somewhat in 2014 as defenses focused more of their attention on him as injuries hampered Brandon Marshall. By season’s end, Jeffery had tallied 85 receptions for 1,133 yards and a career-high 10 touchdowns, finishing the year as the 12th ranked fantasy wide receiver. He ascends to the lead role in 2015 courtesy of Marshall’s trade to the Jets and the expectation is that he will have another solid season with new offensive coordinator Adam Gase running the Bears offense. Look for an increase in his target count from a year ago (145) and plenty of red zone targets even with the presence of 1st round pick Kevin White. We rate Jeffery as a rock solid lower tier WR1 with upside.

WR Kevin White

Having traded Brandon Marshall to the Jets, the Bears used a 1st round pick in this year’s draft to find his replacement, Kevin White. The 6’3”, 215 West Virginia product possesses tantalizing potential and could emerge as the top wide receiver in this year’s draft. However, his college tape revealed that he didn’t gain separation as much as you would expect from a player with sub-4.4-40 speed. He figures to be a solid option in the red zone given his leaping ability and tenacity in fighting for jump balls and he is also a weapon in gaining yards after the catch. With just Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson as his competition, a starting spot on opening day is all but assured. An outstanding dynasty league prospect, we consider White a low end WR3 or upper tier WR4 during his rookie season.

WR Eddie Royal

In what ranks as an under the radar signing, the Bears acquired former Chargers and Broncos wide receiver Eddie Royal this offseason. With tight end Martellus Bennett making noise about his contract, the acquisition of Royal rates as a solid addition as he has emerged as an underrated slot receiver over the past two years. Somewhat astonishingly, Royal has accumulated 15 touchdowns over the past two years in San Diego to go along with 109 receptions and 1,409 yards. While Royal wasn’t guaranteed to consistently be a big part of the game plan in San Diego (five or fewer targets in 18 of his last 31 games), it’s worth noting that he enjoyed the finest year of his career in 2008 when he played with current Bears quarterback Jay Cutler in Denver, chalking up 91 receptions for 908 yards and five touchdowns. In standard scoring formats, Royal rates as waiver wire material other than in the deepest of leagues but he is worth taking a flier on in PPR formats.

WR Marquess Wilson

Thought of as a decent if not outstanding dynasty prospect as a potential replacement for Brandon Marshall down the road, Wilson’s fantasy prospects were like a rollercoaster during the offseason. Early in the offseason, the Bears traded Marshall to the Jets. Then in the draft, they used their 1st round pick to acquire Kevin White, essentially torpedoing Wilson’s fantasy value. Clearly, the Bears weren’t impressed with his production in limited playing time last season (17 receptions for 140 yards and a score on 32 targets). With a pair of potential franchise type wide receivers on the depth chart in front of him and Eddie Royal locked in as the team’s top option out of the slot, Wilson has no fantasy value in either redraft or dynasty formats barring an injury to either Alshon Jeffery or White.

TE Martellus Bennett

After four disappointing years in Dallas, Bennett’s career took a turn for the better in 2012 with the Giants and led to his signing with the Bears in 2013 where he enjoyed the finest success of his career. Why do we need to tell you this? Well, was his success in Chicago due to the presence of former head coach Marc Trestman or was it due to increased maturation as a player? Most likely, it was a combination of the two but it is hard to discount Trestman’s presence last season when Bennett caught 90 passes (the most in the league for a tight end) for 916 yards and six touchdowns, all career highs. Since Julius Thomas enjoyed solid production when healthy with Gase at the controls, we expect that Bennett should put together another solid season in 2015. If there is one thing that concerns us about Bennett it is that he starts hot and then slows down, scoring 10 touchdowns during the first four weeks of the season over the last three years but just six over the final 12 weeks of those seasons. He shakes out as the top tight end in the 2nd tier at the position, behind the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce.

Also see: Chicago Bears IDP Team Report | Minnesota Vikings Team Report

MFL10s Draft Recap From 10th Pick—Start With Matt Forte, Julio Jones

May 28, 2015 By AskTony 1 Comment

Tony takes his first plunge into an MFL10 draft-only best ball league, and with the 10th overall pick selects Chicago Bears RB Matt Forte.

Having played fantasy football for five years and now in my second season writing about fantasy football, I’ve read and heard considerable excitement for MFL10 fantasy football leagues. I never took part in one however, until now.

MFL10s are leagues hosted by MyFantasyLeague.com. There are a variety of entry fee price points, the lowest and most common being $10 (hence, “MFL10”). The format is a single-season redraft league with performance plus PPR scoring. A valid starting lineup is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE) and 1 DEF for 9 total starters, and 20 roster spots.

MFL offers in-season management MFL10 leagues closer to the start of the NFL season, but at this time MFL10s are draft-only leagues. There is no trading, free agency waiver add/drops, and you don’t even set your lineup each week. This is called “best ball” scoring. The website automatically inserts the best scoring, valid starting lineup each week.

I was very excited to get the draft started and kick off the 2015 fantasy football season. Let’s take a look at my draft picks, and from this you can get an early take on some players I like and where others are getting drafted.

1.10 RB Matt Forte, Bears

The draft started out as I expected, five of first six picks were running backs. As I sat waiting at 1.10, I was hoping to have tight end Rob Gronkowski fall to me, but unfortunately he was taken at 1.08. My first debate: Do I draft a proven running back or one of the top tier wide receivers? Remember, this is a PPR scoring league. My options were Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas. With only four picks between my 1.10 and 2.03, I knew I was going to land two of those six.

I decided to go with Forte. Those three WR are all pretty equal and with Murray and McCoy now on different teams, their respective roles are more uncertain. I know Forte, and the Chicago Bears for that matter, might be in a transition year with new head coach John Fox. However, Forte is in a contract year and it is highly unlikely the Bears resign him, so he might think he has something to prove to other teams. Plus, in 2014, Forte led all running backs in the league with 102 receptions, which is gold in a PPR league.

2.03 WR Julio Jones, Falcons

When I saw Julio Jones available my eyes lit up. As I stated previously, I value Jones, Bryant and Thomas very similar. Jones does have some injury history, mostly a tough 2013 season still fresh in our memories that saw him play only 5 games. When healthy however, Jones is one of the most dominant receivers in the league. I was very pleased with my starting two players.

3.10 RB Alfred Morris, Redskins

I was really hoping quarterback Aaron Rodgers would fall to me as I was ready for an elite quarterback. However, he was taken at 3.08. I took a look at RBs and WRs available and saw a bigger drop off at RB than WR. Alfred Morris has been one of the most consistent running backs since coming into the league in 2012. Over the course of his three seasons, Morris has ranked in the Top 12 every year. Also, amongst only five running backs to finish in the Top 12 running backs each of the past three season, Morris has the third best yards per carry at 4.52, behind only Jamaal Charles’ 5.10 and Marshawn Lynch’s 4.64. Morris is 7th in fantasy points at RB since joining the league (yes, PPR scoring) and is younger than all of these similarly high producing backs taken earlier in the draft. Morris is in the final year of his contract and while some think rookie RB Matt Jones may be Morris’ successor, I see Jones pushing Morris to be even better to prove he is worth a big contract and a starting position for any team next year.

4.03 WR Kelvin Benjamin, Panthers

With my starting running backs set, my focus now shifts to wide receiver and quarterback. Since quarterback is deep, I was looking at Sammy Watkins, Kelvin Benjamin or rookie Amari Cooper. With Watkins going at 4.01, I decided on Benjamin due to his one year experience in the league. I do believe Cooper will find instant success in Oakland, however, that is clearly a more risky proposition since we’ve witnessed Benjamin perform in the pros last season. Also, with Carolina’s addition of Devin Funchess, Benjamin might see some lighter coverage allowing for more scoring opportunities.

5.10 QB Peyton Manning, Broncos

Peyton Manning is one of the best in the game. Yes, his stats fell off half way through the 2014 season as many said he had a dead arm. I feel it was more the quadriceps injury that plagued him and only became known after the Broncos earlier than expected exit from the playoffs. However, besides an overhaul of the coaching staff, not much has changed for Manning on the field. All his weapons remain except tight end Julius Thomas, who went to the Jacksonville Jaguars. If this is Manning’s last year in the league (we’ve heard that before), I’d like to think he will do everything he can to go out on top. I’m more than willing to accept the risk of a “dead arm” with Manning’s statistical history on my side.

6.03 TE Greg Olsen, Panthers

Yes, I know I have a Panthers wide receiver on my team already. However, Greg Olsen is one of Cam Newton’s favorite targets, especially in the red zone. Olsen has consistently put up fantasy stats and ended as a top three tight end in 2014 in PPR formats. I’m willing to assume the risk of teammates on the same fantasy team, especially if the offense is moving in a positive direction, which the Panthers are.

7.10 WR Steve Smith, Ravens

Former Panther! Despite being 36 years old, Steve Smith proved his doubters wrong in 2014 with a Top 24 fantasy performance at wide receiver. He played all 16 games, did not show signs of injury, and can still burn defenders as evidenced by his 15 receptions over 20 yards and five over 40 yards. With Torrey Smith’s departure, Smith is line to lead the receiving corps again for the Ravens.

8.03 RB Joseph Randle, Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys bid farewell to DeMarco Murray in the offseason, the league’s leading rusher in 2014. With the addition of aged running back Darren McFadden, Joseph Randle, at worst, may see a time share of carries behind the amazing Cowboys offensive line. Randle is worth the risk even at this moderate draft cost, as he has a good chance to earn the starting gig at some point for the Cowboys, even if not out of training camp. Note his Week 17 performance last season as the starter scoring three touchdowns.

9.10 RB Doug Martin, Buccaneers

Behind a new franchise quarterback in Jameis Winston, running back Doug Martin, as of right now, is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers leading running back, with Charles Sims maybe getting a bigger role. At this point in the draft, taking a running back that might be a starter Week 1 is worth the risk as Martin may have a breakout game or two still left in him.

10.03 WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans

If you read my Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers, you know that Dorial Green-Beckham has been compared to Brandon Marshall, who has had a pretty good career if you ask me. With the young Tennessee Titans in a transition period, no one really knows what to expect from this offense. Green-Beckham could be an integral part of this offense in September.

11.10 QB Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings

Teddy Bridgewater was the best rookie quarterback in 2014. He definitely progressed in his development to become the Minnesota Vikings franchise quarterback. With the Vikings addition of wide receiver Mike Wallace and running back Adrian Peterson returning, Bridgewater has all the weapons set up for success.

12.03 Roy Helu, RB – Raiders

Roy Helu ended his rookie contract after the 2014 season and once it ended, Oakland rushed to sign him. Helu has been a receiving back during his career. With the departure of Darren McFadden and retirement of Maurice Jones-Drew, next starter up is sophomore Latavius Murray. Murray played well his rookie season, but isn’t much of a pass catcher. Helu will definitely factor into the Raiders offense, especially on third downs, which translates into a worthy late add for a PPR league.

13.10 WR Doug Baldwin, Seahawks
14.03 TE Larry Donnell, Giants
15.10 WR Eddie Royal, Bears

I’m hoping the addition of elite tight end Jimmy Graham and Marshawn Lynch continuing his dominance will force defenses to load up the box, allowing Doug Baldwin to basically run free to make big plays. Larry Donnell is still young and does not have much competition behind him to challenge his starting job, which makes for a great bye week replacement for Olsen. There is a chance rookie wide receiver Kevin White does not make an immediate impact with the Chicago Bears. In such a case, the Bears will have to rely on Eddie Royal to produce, which makes for a good late round flier.

16.03 Arizona Cardinals Defense
17.10 Pittsburgh Steelers Defense

With all the quarterback troubles the Arizona Cardinals had in 2014, they finished 11-5 because of their dominant defense. Arizona did not lose many players in the offseason, so their defense should still be in the top seven in 2015. Pittsburgh Steelers defense was bad in 2014, but that may be mainly attributable to injuries. In 2015, besides an edge rusher, Pittsburgh has a well-rounded defense which should be drastically better.

18.03 RB Benny Cunningham, Rams
19.10 WR Aaron Dobson, Patriots
20.03 RB Matt Jones, Redskins

Benny Cunningham should serve as the third down, receiving back for the St. Louis Rams, so he has the chance to gobble up receptions from quarterback Nick Foles. Aaron Dobson was overhyped going into the 2014 season and was a major disappointment. Let’s see how his 2015 goes. Rookie Matt Jones is the backup to my starting running back Alfred Morris, so he is an insurance policy in case of injury.

Overall, I think my first MFL10 was a success. My team has some young talent, but is mainly comprised of proven veterans. A few things I noticed, which are on par with what the fantasy football draft trends have been the past few years: quality running backs are limited and go quickly, wide receivers are ridiculously deep, and outside of tight end Rob Gronkowski, wait on tight ends. I highly recommend MFL10s, so go sign up and get your draft on!