dynasty prospects Archives

Dynasty Prospect Pitchers – Reyes, Kopech, Keller, Puk, Whitley

May 29, 2018 By Rick Leave a Comment

This in-camera multi-exposure picture is of St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Alex Reyes from 2016. Reyes returns to start Wednesday against the Milwaukee Brewers. If Reyes is available in your dynasty league – go get him now!

Pitchers are the position of injury. These guys try to hurl a ball in an unnatural motion as hard as they can repeatedly. On top of that, they also contort their arms in a way that creates great amounts of stress on relatively weak ligaments just to make the ball react to faster flowing air under the ball.

The physics of baseball is incredible, but the destructive nature of the game on an arm is mind boggling. Many of the old-timers will talk about slowly building arm strength over the first 20 years of your life and being careful of overuse. But even then, the incredible force put on the arm in baseball and the repeated torque of breaking balls will harm even the strongest of arms. So it’s no wonder that pitchers are the position where more injuries occur than any other.

That being said, a can’t miss prospect could see his whole career fall apart with an injury before that career ever gets on track. He has to learn and mature and doesn’t provide the immediate impact that a hitter could provide. The pitchers here won’t just walk in and blow away the world’s best hitters. It will take a little while for them develop, so be patient. In time they will reward you.

Something else to consider is the jump from amateur ball to the pros. High school and college coaches call every pitch for their pitchers, which causes them to struggle to learn “how to pitch” once they reach the pros. The last three seasons saw the five different Cy Young Award winners all take time to develop. Four of them didn’t win a Cy Young Award until they were in their second MLB organization, none of them won a Cy Young Award before their sixth year in professional baseball, and only two of them were drafted in the first round (neither in the top 10). Keep this in mind before you leap out and grab Casey Mize or any other pitcher projected to be drafted highly in next month’s MLB Draft.

So with all this, you probably have come to realize that I view pitching as a crap shoot and that you can’t trust them. This is kinda true, which is why I do so much streaming. This allows me to pick up pitchers a week at a time and toss them aside as soon as I see a better option on the waiver wire. If your league doesn’t place restrictions on free agent pickups, this is a great way to go. If not, you have to be a bit more selective about your targets.

Almost Here

RHP Alex Reyes, STL

Alex Reyes is likely to start for the St. Louis Cardinals this week. He is coming back from ligament reconstruction surgery and has destroyed minor league hitters in his rehab outings giving up no earned runs and striking out 44 batters in 25 innings of work. If for some reason he is available in your league, now will be your last chance to grab him because he’ll be a 4-category monster. The hype rocket is on the launch pad and is scheduled for a Wednesday liftoff.

RHP Michael Kopech, CWS

Michael Kopech has elite stuff. The changeup and slider are top shelf and the fastball is even better. He can hit 100 on the radar gun and is a true competitor. He will be a star, but it won’t be right away. Kopech is another potential 4-category stud. He should be pitching on Chicago’s South Side by Independence Day.

Next Year

RHP Mitch Keller, PIT

Mitch Keller has a good fastball with great command. His curve is above average but a third offering is still in question as the changeup isn’t ready for prime time. He won’t punch out a lot of batters and could take a while to really develop into a quality pitcher without that third pitch. He’s not on the same tier as Reyes and Kopech, but he’ll be a quality pitcher, in time.

LHP A.J. Puk, OAK

A.J. Puk was ready to make his MLB debut when his elbow blew out and he has already undergone Tommy John surgery. Puk should be ready for the 2019 season and should dazzle upon his return. He dominated his two seasons in minor league ball, striking out 224 batters in 158 innings. His overpowering stuff will still play in The Show.

Even Further Away

RHP Forrest Whitley, HOU

Forrest Whitley is not your average pitcher. He has a herky-jerky delivery and five – yes five – above average pitches. The fastball is the elite pitch, but the others will all get him outs. The command is still a work in progress. He’s a big kid (6’7” and 240 pounds) but is still young. He’s probably a few years away, but this is the guy I am watching down the road. ETA 2020

RHP Sixto Sanchez, PHI

Sixto Sanchez throws gas. He’s a little guy with a big arm. The command is fine for an 18 year old who is still a few years from making his big league debut and in time he should improve. The changeup plays well off the fastball and can make hitters look silly. The other secondary pitches are good enough, but he will win the day with the heat. ETA: 2021

Tip of the Week

If you are considering pitchers to pick up coming off an injury, don’t be afraid of elbow injuries. These are becoming common place and most pitchers can come back from ligament reconstruction at full strength in relatively short order.

Shoulder problems are a completely different story. I avoid any pitchers with shoulder injuries and I try to trade away my guys who start to develop these injuries. Shoulder injuries rarely go away completely and usually lead to bigger problems that can end a player’s career early.

Dynasty Catcher Prospects – Alfaro, Cisco, Mejia, Ruiz, Collins

May 22, 2018 By Rick Leave a Comment

Cleveland Indians Francisco Mejia is the stud of the group of dynasty catcher prospects almost ready for the Majors. Rick comps Mejia as Joe Mauer from Mauer’s catching days.

Mining dynasty catcher prospects is a very tricky job to find a fantasy difference maker. Stumbling on to the next Buster Posey or Gary Sanchez is sometimes as much luck as it is hard work because of the nature of the position.

Major League teams draft catchers often, but learning how to be a good receiver and game caller is something that takes a lot of time. Since high school and college coaches call every pitch, the catcher can only learn by being a part of the process, but never makes those calls on his own. The time to learn how to be a good catcher often comes at the detriment of their bat and experience against higher level competition.

If a MLB team drafts a catcher with an advanced bat, they usually move that player off the position to get his bat into the lineup faster. This also keeps their knees from the years of abuse they take squatting hundreds of times each day. Bryce Harper was moved to the outfield for this very reason.

Usually, the big hitters who end up behind the plate are only there for a short time before they are moved to a position where their defense is less exposed.

In most fantasy leagues, the top catchers go quickly and if you don’t get one of the Top 5, you are likely scrambling for a hot bat. I see a lot of owners grab a guy who is durable and will get some counting stats just by showing up to work every day, but is little more than roster filler. Since punting the position is not a great way to win a fantasy title, let’s look at who could help you in all of the categories.

Already Here

Jorge Alfaro, PHI

Alfaro has been on the radar of fantasy players for years now. We have all been waiting for him to show the power bat that got him signed as a 16 year old. But that power will be tempered by his below average ability to make contact. He already has the starting gig in Philadelphia, but he will need to keep his batting average north of .260 to be quality fantasy performer. Even though he is not a base stealer, he has sneaky speed so don’t be surprised if he starts to swipe a half dozen or so bases each season.

Chance Sisco, BAL

Sisco could be in the “Stay Away” grouping, except that he is already getting MLB at bats. In his favor, he is on the good side of the Baltimore catching platoon. Even though he is a switch hitter, his right-handed hitting is greatly lacking and he might be better off hitting from the left side no matter the pitcher. To boot, his catching skills are below average, so he might not get a lot of leash.

Almost Ready

Francisco Mejia, CLE

Mejia is the stud of this group and is a very good hitter with solid power and no speed. This switch hitter is the kind of guy usually moved to another position so his bat can flourish, but he’s staying put behind the dish. His hitting is certainly no fluke as demonstrated by a 50 game hitting streak in A-ball. I see his comp as Joe Mauer in his catching days. ETA: late 2018

Keibert Ruiz, LAD

Ruiz is Mejia-lite. He will display good average with a little less power and the same lack of speed. He also has very good catching skills, similar to Mejia. Ruiz will hit for a high average that will show as more of a doubles hitter than a home run crusher. The Dodgers will likely put Ruiz on the slow boat to The Show, so don’t look for Ruiz until 2020 at the earliest.

Roll the Dice

Alex Jackson, ATL

Jackson was drafted by Seattle and was moved away from catcher as his catching skills were lacking and to push his bat. When the bat slowed its progression, Seattle traded him for a bunch of nothing and Atlanta grabbed him and moved him back to catcher.

He is a serious power threat with average contact skills. If he can put it together, he could be a 25-homer guy. If not, he could become a high school baseball coach before his 30th birthday. ETA: late 2019 or, after he completes his teaching certification, in a classroom near you.

Stay Away

Zack Collins, CWS

Collins is the ultimate three-outcome hitter (homer, walk or strikeout). If you think that two of the three results are pretty good, consider that he has a career minor league batting average of .195. One has to hope that he will work on his bat skills, but I just don’t see him becoming a good enough hitting catcher to make it all worth the roster spot. ETA: 2019

Tip of the Week

If you are willing to keep scrambling, you can often find a hot hitting free agent catcher. It seems that at any given time, there are a few catchers with scorching bats just waiting to get snapped up. Unfortunately, that means you will likely get a platoon hitter or a guy who could cool off without warning. To do this, you need to continually scour the waiver wire, but the results could really pay off without having to make a great investment other than your time.

MLB Top Prospects at Third Base – Michael Chivas, Austin Riley, J.D. Davis

May 10, 2018 By Rick 4 Comments

MLB top prospects at third base - Michael Chavis

Rick covers the MLB top prospects at third base for us, with a eye to the future for you dynasty league baseball players. Boston Red Sox Michael Chavis may not end up as a 3B, but will slug his way into the lineup.

Is a third baseman a guy not slick enough to handle shortstop or too agile to get stuck at first base? Does he end up at the hot corner because he’s blocked at his normal position or is he a natural at the position?

Many guys are classified at a certain position, but the parent club knows they will eventually end up playing another position once they hit The Bigs. I discussed several MLB top prospects at third base in previous articles (shortstop, first base), currently playing other positions, like Fernando Tatis Jr., Ryan Mountcastle, Kevin Maitan and Carter Kieboom.

Other projected players for the hot corner, who probably aren’t available in your fantasy baseball league already, are:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR – future stud, and estimated call up whether later this season or next is a hotly debated topic in Toronto

Nick Senzel, CIN – will play 2B in short term, but I believe he’ll be at 3B by the start of 2019

Colin Moran, PIT – will put up a good batting average, but don’t expect much power

Miguel Andujar, NYY – keeps bouncing back and forth between the Bronx and triple-A

Ryan McMahon, COL – discussed him with first basemen since he will likely not see much time at third

So who is available in your league? The elite guys aren’t ready for prime time, many of them are still more than a couple of years away. The only guys around who could be much help in the near future are Brian Anderson (solid all-around hitter, but plays for the pitiful Marlins) and Christian Arroyo (good contact and speed, little power). Unfortunately, there isn’t much else on the horizon for 2018.

On the Way

Austin Riley, ATL

Austin Riley is the Atlanta Braves third baseman of the future… they hope. They are holding the position open for him and are only waiting for Riley to add another year of size and experience before they hand him the reins to the hot corner. Riley’s got big time raw power and has even flexed those muscles in his first two full pro seasons, hitting 20 homers in each. The Braves seem determined to keep him at third, despite him making a lot of errors along the way. He sacrifices average for power, but should be a good play starting in 2019.

Michael Chavis, BOS

Michael Chavis has huge power that was put on display last season. He lit up A+ and AA to the tune of 31 homers. Chavis won’t hit for a high average and don’t expect stolen bases, but the power output is what you are buying here. His lack of ability with the glove project him for a position change, but the slugger will be in the lineup somewhere. Look for him to start playing at Fenway Park next year, and for a long time after.

Nolan Jones, CLE

Nolan Jones has a very quick bat and a great approach at the plate. The power will play well at third base, but the batting average will be better and there is very little speed on the base paths. Jones will make his MLB mark starting in 2020 and has the potential to be a very successful hitter.

Playing the Angle

J.D. Davis, HOU

J.D. Davis was buried on the Houston Astros depth chart because Alex Bregman was pushed to third base and Carlos Correa had shortstop locked down and he still had Colin Moran ahead of him.

With Moran’s trade to Pittsburgh and Davis’ ability to play a few positions, he has been able to steal some at bats here and there. Davis has serious power in his bat but he swings and misses too much, sacrificing average for power. He has a cannon for an arm, making him a good choice to also play the outfield corners. Unfortunately, Houston is so stacked with quality bats that Davis can’t break through and seems to need a Moran-like trade out of Houston to get the opportunity to show his stuff.

Stay Away

Renato Nunez, OAK

Renato Nunez already has 50 MLB at bats, so he’s not exactly a prospect any more. He has real power, but he misses way too often and his glove is slightly south of awful. He could figure it out and become a real power hitter, but he’s more likely to struggle mightily against Major League pitching whenever given the chance.

Tip of the Week

Eugenio Suarez has quietly been putting up good numbers in Cincinnati. For those who pay close attention, he’s not exactly a surprise. I think he’ll get enough at bats at shortstop this season to gain eligibility at that position too.