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Fantasy Baseball Prospects Dynasty Watch – First Base

April 17, 2018 By Rick 3 Comments

Fantasy baseball prospects - Peter Alonso, Mets

Welcome Rick to the team. He specializes in digging for fantasy baseball prospects for dynasty leagues, such as future New York Mets 1B Peter Alonso, currently playing Double-A for the Binghamton Rumble Ponies.

Always looking for the “next big thing”, I have a lot of experience scavenging the minors for the next impact fantasy baseball prospects. I’m hoping to use this weekly space to provide owners with some targets and big-picture tips throughout the 2018 campaign. Since few prospects make an impact in their rookie season, I will usually focus on keepers for the future.

We all want to find the next Albert Pujols, the guy who seemed to come out of nowhere and built a Hall of Fame career, starting with his rookie campaign where he bashed his way to .327/37/130 while qualifying at three positions.

Unfortunately those guys don’t grow on trees, otherwise they wouldn’t be called generational players. Ronald Acuna is probably that next guy (minus the position flexibility), but he likely isn’t available in your league since the hype surrounding him is so great. Which is the problem…

So who is available in your league? Well it mostly depends on the number of teams, roster spots per team and the rules your fantasy league utilizes. I usually play dynasty leagues, since it allows me to grab youngsters, follow them up to The Show and then help lead me to the title. You usually have to take a few risks along the way, but there are ways to minimize those risks and still profit from keen pickups.

Power Outage at First Base

Looking back, it always seemed like every MLB team had a masher at first base. You know, the guy who looked more like an offensive lineman than a baseball player and they seemed to grow on every Major League tree. That guy could catch well enough to not hurt your team at 1B, but probably was better suited for the DH role. What he brought to the table was a slugging percentage around .600 and the homers and ribbies that was the nucleus of your fantasy lineup.

Today it seems like power hitting first basemen are few and far between, and deeper leagues mean getting creative on finding your guy. Often, MLB teams will move a third baseman who isn’t quick enough to handle the hot corner or an outfielder who doesn’t have tracking ability or speed to first base. So scanning the lower minors for true first basemen isn’t always the answer. Players usually end up playing at least part time at 1B by the time they get to the upper end of the minor league system, so there are signs of where they are likely to end up.

Prospects Watch

Bobby Bradley (Indians) and Ryan McMahon (Rockies) are the guys you probably know about. Bradley will be a better power threat but McMahon will post a better average. Both will be studs and should not be on your waiver wire if you can keep them for the next few years. McMahon has been sitting on the Colorado bench this season and has struggled in his few at bats so far (1 for 20, 10 K) so maybe his owner is souring on him. It could be time to move in with an offer. Bradley is in Double-A, so he will not be up until next year in all likelihood.

Other guys with notable names are Brendan McKay (Rays), Nick Pratto (Royals), Pavin Smith (Diamondbacks) and Evan White (Mariners). They are all highly touted but are too far down the minor league pipeline to help you in the next few years. Guys that far away can sometimes go off the rails and not pan out, so I like to focus on players in Double-A or higher. Three guys I like are Peter Alonso, Ronald Guzman and Josh Naylor.

Peter Alonso, NYM

Peter Alonso is going to have to navigate a minefield to get the starting first base job in Queens. But even though he has an aging Adrian Gonzalez and a young Domonic Smith ahead of him, he should be the New York Mets starting first baseman by 2020. He doesn’t walk or strikeout much and is a good contact hitter. Think of him as a right handed Eric Hosmer with fewer stolen bases.

Ronald Guzman, TEX

Ronald Guzman is the closest to the Majors. He started the season playing at Triple-A Round Rock and was called up to the Texas Rangers for a short time to fill in for injuries. But, he is also the least likely to develop into a power monster. He’s a power alley hitter who will hit for a good average. Consider him along the lines of Mark Grace.

Josh Naylor, SD

Josh Naylor is the mystery man of this group from the San Diego Padres organization. His body shape is a little un-baseball-like in that he’s under 6 foot but tilts the scales over 250, but he hits big. His batting practice shows are legendary, but he needs to be more selective to realize that power in games.

Early indications are that this might be the season where he puts it all together so stash him now before one of your league mates beats you to the punch. If he realizes his ceiling, he’ll post vintage Adrian Gonzalez-like numbers.

Patience But Not Indecision

Some of the worst advice available comes from those who recommend sitting on a fantasy squad for several weeks before making major moves. Owners who draft and then wait to see how things pan out are cautious not to overreact, but they also miss out on the breakout players.

Saving a roster spot or two for the guy who might blossom is always advisable. You don’t have roster space for all the potential breakout candidates, so you have to be very selective. You have to also be willing to cut bait on guys who don’t progress the way you need, so don’t get too attached.

Tip of the Week

If you need a first baseman right now, you might be able to pry Jose Martinez away from his owner. He’s off to a hot start and this is for real (think of a JD Martinez-like late bloomer). Make sure you throw the recent injury into your trade discussions as well as sharing playing time with Matt Carpenter and Jedd Gyorko as reasons your league mate needs to trade Martinez to your team.

Filed Under: Dynasty Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball

Fantasy Football Dynasty League Rookie Mock Draft—Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon First Off The Board?

May 5, 2015 By Dave 1 Comment

Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, who should go fisrt in fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts? Gurley has an edge in talent. Gordon has an edge in situation, and isn't rehabbing a torn ACL. And the pick is...

Todd Gurley or Melvin Gordon, who should go first in fantasy football dynasty rookie drafts? Gurley has an edge in talent. Gordon has an edge in situation, and isn’t rehabbing a torn ACL. And the pick is…

The NFL Draft is in the books, and as a result many fantasy football dynasty owners are coming out of short hibernation to get their league rookie-only drafts underway. These are the golden children of the fantasy football landscape. The next superstars in the making to set your dynasty team on the winning path for years to come.

Who is the next Odell Beckham Jr. or Jeremy Hill? Who is the next Bishop Sankey, Tavon Austin or Cordarrelle Patterson? Hmm…

While dynasty owners have stars in their eyes for the incoming rookie class, it is always good to keep things in perspective. Early returns on last year’s class are very good, but that was very likely an exceptional year. It isn’t like that every year.

Very good and even great players emerge each season, and the rookies are a good place to start searching for those, but if your fellow owners are gaga for some of these guys and you can parlay it into a bounty of future draft picks, then you have to consider it.

All that said, we still have to think about the short and long-term fantasy outlook for this crop of rookies, and judge how they should be valued or ranked relative to their peers. Here is a three round, 12-team mock draft that does exactly that.

Round 1

1. RB Melvin Gordon, Chargers

While Gordon rates a hair below Todd Gurley in pure ability, he gets to join a Chargers offense that is light years ahead of where the Rams are, in particular at quarterback and along the offensive line.

2. RB Todd Gurley, Rams

One highlight is all it takes to see that Gurley is a special player. However, he is coming off a torn ACL and joins a Rams team with major issues along the offensive line and which currently only has two players that would rate as starters on most NFL teams.

3. WR Amari Cooper, Raiders

The choice between Cooper and Kevin White amounts to polish vs. potential. We’re going with polish and also recognizing that, while David Carr currently rates below Jay Cutler, we like the long term quarterback potential more in Oakland than we do in Chicago.

4. WR Kevin White, Bears

White has potential superstar written all over him but it was a little disconcerting to notice that, despite his blazing speed, his highlight reel didn’t show a player capable of gaining consistent separation.

5. WR DeVante Parker, Dolphins

At some point, Parker will emerge as the Dolphins top wide receiver and it just might happen during his rookie season. Of all of the Dolphins receivers, he is the only one who possesses the ability to emerge as a long term top wideout. The only caveat here is quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s lack of touch on the deep ball.

6. RB Tevin Coleman, Falcons

While not the shiftiest running back, Coleman possesses blazing speed and a willingness to take on opposing tacklers. He fits best in a zone blocking scheme and has a clear lane to a starting position with only the disappointing Devonta Freeman ahead of him.

7. WR Breshad Perriman, Ravens

Let’s run down the check marks: good size, outstanding speed, opportunity to start from Day 1. Yep, Perriman has all that and a strong armed quarterback in Joe Flacco that is a good fit to Perriman’s ability to make plays down the field. He may struggle early but he has tremendous upside.

8. RB T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars

The good news is that Yeldon has a chance to open the season as a starter with Jacksonville. The bad news is that Yeldon was drafted by Jacksonville. While Yeldon lacks the upside of some of his fellow rookie running backs, as the third running back taken in the draft, he will be in the starting line up early in the season, if not on opening day.

9. WR Nelson Agholor, Eagles

Agholor possesses solid, not outstanding speed and lacks ideal size at 6’1” and 190 pounds. While he can line up outside, he may spend most of his time working out of the slot and that would limit his upside.

10. WR Jaelen Strong, Texans

By all accounts, the Texans got a steal by selecting Strong in the 3rd round of the draft. While DeAndre Hopkins is entrenched as the team’s leading wide receiver, Strong figures to unseat Cecil Shorts for a starting position by mid-season.

11. RB Jeremy Langford, Bears

While Matt Forte is scheduled to be a free agent at the end of the season, initial reports indicate that Langford is unlikely to be viewed as a potential long term replacement should Forte leave Chicago.

12. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Titans

Green-Beckham has solid upside and comparisons to Brandon Marshall and Kelvin Benjamin are warranted. However, the Titans in general lack leadership and this pick would look a whole lot better if the team had a veteran wide receiver to mentor him. This is as boom or bust as it gets.

Round 2

1. RB Matt Jones, Redskins

Doesn’t possess major upside but, with Alfred Morris scheduled for free agency at season’s end, could have an opportunity to start in 2016.

2. RB Jay Ajayi, Dolphins

Miami’s backfield is devoid of depth and they had little choice but to end Ajayi’s draft freefall in the 5th round. He has little chance of supplanting Lamar Miller in 2015.

3. TE Maxx Williams, Ravens

Williams is a talented player and the Ravens draft well so there is a solid chance that he will have a long, productive career provided he remains healthy. I would have him ranked higher except for the fact that there are so many tight ends that fit within a certain tier of ability that there isn’t a need to use a high pick on Williams unless you think he will emerge as a superstar. The track record at TE for that is not happening is not stellar.

4. RB Ameer Abdullah, Lions

Not that big, not that fast, Abdullah will most likely work as a chance of pace and receiving option in his rookie year. However, the 2nd round pick has a chance to take over for Joique Bell as early as next season provided he can prove adept at running between the tackles. He will almost certainly never emerge as a workhorse type back.

5. WR Devin Funchess, Panthers

His selection by Carolina in the 2nd round rates as a head scratcher as he is basically a slightly less talented version of 2014 1st round pick Kelvin Benjamin.

6. WR Chris Conley, Chiefs

By now you’ve heard that Kansas City wide receivers failed to catch a single touchdown pass last season and Jeremy Maclin was brought in from Philadelphia to lead the rebuilding project. Well, Conley rates as the second piece of the project and he has a decent chance to emerge as a starter in his rookie season.

7. RB David Johnson, Cardinals

There are two narratives on Johnson. One is that he rates as Andre Ellington’s replacement in Arizona’s starting lineup. The other is that he’s strictly a soft running, 224 lb. backup with little upside.

8. RB David Cobb, Titans

While many are going to predict that Cobb has a chance to supplant second year player Bishop Sankey in the starting lineup, it says here that he is more likely to force Shonn Greene off the roster.

9. WR Sammie Coates, Steelers

Coates has some pretty serious talent and upside for a 3rd round pick but alas the path to playing time in Pittsburgh is somewhat blocked with Antonio Brown and a pair of productive youngsters in Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton in the way.

10. WR Phillip Dorsett, Colts

Not sure why the Colts felt the need to add Dorsett unless there are some concerns about T.Y. Hilton’s availability. We don’t see much of a role for him in 2015 especially since the Colts often line up in two tight end sets.

Jameis Winston

Yep, he went there.

11. QB Jameis Winston, Bucs

With so many solid fantasy options at quarterback, it just doesn’t make sense to reach for one in dynasty rookie drafts. Especially one with Winston’s checkered past and concerns of maturity issues. And he’s joining the Bucs, who just can’t seem to ever get it right.

12. QB Marcus Mariota, Titans

You have to be skeptical of his ability to transfer his college strengths to the pros, especially if coach Ken Whisenhunt fails to appropriately tailor his deep passing offensive philosophy. And where exactly are the playmakers on the Titans offense to help shoulder the load?

Round 3

1. RB Duke Johnson, Browns

Johnson has some serious agility skills but in Cleveland he will likely operate as a change of pace, receiving back behind Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West in an offense that will struggle to move the ball.

2. RB Javorius Allen, Ravens

Allen will enter training camp fighting with Lorenzo Taliaferro for the top spot behind Baltimore’s lead back, Justin Forsett.

3. WR Devin Smith, Jets

Smith’s solid speed and big play ability fill an obvious need in the Jets offense but new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s affinity for short and intermediate throws don’t bode well for Smith’s target count as a rookie nor does the presence of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker.

4. RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Panthers

Aging Mike Tolbert is joined by a cast of retreads on Carolina’s depth chart behind Jonathan Stewart. Artis-Payne could emerge as Stewart’s handcuff, making him a potential contributor given Stewart’s lengthy injury history.

5. WR Ty Montgomery, Packers

Any wide receiver selected by Green Bay in the 3rd round warrants fantasy consideration. It’s just hard to predict much of a role for him until Jordy Nelson departs since Randall Cobb and Davante Adams are young, productive players.

6. TE Clive Walford, Raiders

A late-comer to football, Walford lacks the speed necessary to emerge as an upper tier tight end. However, he figures to ascend to the starting lineup early in his career.

7. WR Vince Mayle, Browns

Despite the abundance of talent at the wide receiver position in each of the last two drafts, Cleveland failed to address the position last year and waited until the 4th round this year before draft Mayle, who shapes up as a possession receiver.

8. RB Mike Davis, 49ers

While San Francisco’s current running back depth chart runs three deep with Carlos Hyde, Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter, there is a decent chance that only Hyde will return to the team for the 2016 season, giving Davis a shot at earning some carries in 2016.

9. QB Bryce Petty, Jets

Geno Smith isn’t the answer and Ryan Fitzpatrick has never been the answer either. Petty likely redshirts as a rookie in 2015 with a chance to start next season.

10. WR Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

I have pretty much zero faith in the Seahawks ability to either develop or properly utilize their wide receivers. It’s that point in the draft, folks.

11. WR Rashad Greene, Jaguars

Despite having a solid trio of promising second year wide receivers, Jacksonville added Greene to the mix as their 5th round pick. Puzzling.

12. QB Sean Mannion, Rams

Recently acquired starter Nick Foles isn’t signed beyond this year and will need a solid season to earn a new contract. Given the current state of the team’s wide receivers and offensive line, the odds of that happening aren’t great.

2015 Early Rankings Series

Top 150 | Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Rookie-Only Mock Draft

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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