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MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Tuesday August 7

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Los Angeles Angels are facing a RHP at home (Jacob Turner DET who has faced 35 batters). On FanDuel the Angels are currently putting up 2.37 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Jacob Turner is currently allowing 196% more PPA than the MLB average (2.114 PPA). Their modified PPA is 4.64 (2.37 x 196%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.114 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.613
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Angels RHP at home Jacob Turner DET 35 2.37 x 196% 4.64 +2.27 1.79 x 188% 3.36 +1.57
Reds LHP on road Jason Vargas NYM 223 2.09 x 146% 3.06 +0.97 1.63 x 144% 2.35 +0.72
Blue Jays LHP at home Drew Pomeranz BOS 219 2.09 x 133% 2.78 +0.69 1.60 x 130% 2.08 +0.48
Red Sox RHP on road Marcus Stroman TOR 371 2.33 x 113% 2.63 +0.30 1.77 x 112% 1.98 +0.21
Rays RHP at home Alex Cobb BAL 493 2.01 x 128% 2.57 +0.56 1.55 x 127% 1.97 +0.42
Rangers RHP at home Felix Hernandez SEA 522 2.28 x 115% 2.62 +0.34 1.71 x 113% 1.93 +0.23
Mariners RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 522 2.10 x 118% 2.48 +0.38 1.62 x 119% 1.92 +0.31
Pirates RHP on road Chad Bettis COL 409 2.18 x 112% 2.44 +0.26 1.67 x 111% 1.85 +0.18
Cardinals RHP on road Pablo Lopez MIA 142 2.14 x 108% 2.31 +0.17 1.63 x 108% 1.76 +0.13
Yankees RHP on road Reynaldo Lopez CHW 557 2.17 x 107% 2.33 +0.16 1.64 x 106% 1.74 +0.10
Brewers LHP at home Clayton Richard SDP 586 2.11 x 107% 2.26 +0.15 1.60 x 105% 1.68 +0.08
Diamondbacks RHP at home Nick Pivetta PHI 483 2.10 x 107% 2.24 +0.14 1.59 x 106% 1.69 +0.10
Rockies RHP at home Jameson Taillon PIT 522 2.34 x 92% 2.16 -0.18 1.78 x 94% 1.67 -0.11
Mets RHP at home Sal Romano CIN 511 1.81 x 115% 2.07 +0.27 1.39 x 114% 1.59 +0.20
Nationals LHP at home Sean Newcomb ATL 490 2.30 x 87% 1.99 -0.30 1.74 x 86% 1.49 -0.24
Twins RHP on road Carlos Carrasco CLE 497 2.06 x 94% 1.94 -0.12 1.56 x 95% 1.49 -0.07
Tigers LHP on road Andrew Heaney LAA 505 2.01 x 96% 1.93 -0.07 1.54 x 96% 1.48 -0.06
Orioles RHP on road Tyler Glasnow TBR 254 1.94 x 100% 1.95 +0.01 1.49 x 98% 1.46 -0.03
Athletics LHP at home Rich Hill LAD 319 1.96 x 97% 1.90 -0.06 1.49 x 98% 1.45 -0.04
Cubs RHP on road Brad Keller KCR 344 2.24 x 84% 1.88 -0.36 1.71 x 85% 1.46 -0.25
Indians LHP at home Adalberto Mejia MIN 74 2.42 x 73% 1.77 -0.65 1.83 x 76% 1.40 -0.43
White Sox LHP at home CC Sabathia NYY 470 1.74 x 99% 1.73 -0.01 1.36 x 100% 1.36 +0.00
Phillies RHP on road Zack Greinke ARI 571 2.00 x 85% 1.70 -0.30 1.53 x 87% 1.34 -0.19
Padres RHP on road Chase Anderson MIL 488 1.76 x 97% 1.70 -0.06 1.37 x 96% 1.32 -0.05
Dodgers LHP on road Sean Manaea OAK 569 1.94 x 87% 1.68 -0.26 1.47 x 88% 1.29 -0.18
Royals LHP at home Mike Montgomery CHC 394 1.77 x 92% 1.63 -0.14 1.39 x 94% 1.31 -0.09
Braves RHP on road Max Scherzer WSN 606 2.19 x 76% 1.66 -0.53 1.67 x 77% 1.28 -0.39
Marlins RHP at home Miles Mikolas STL 554 1.86 x 76% 1.42 -0.44 1.45 x 79% 1.15 -0.30

MLB Daily Fantasy Lineups Analysis for Tuesday July 24

By Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The St Louis Cardinals are facing a RHP on road (Homer Bailey CIN who has faced 292 batters). On FanDuel the Cardinals are currently putting up 2.14 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Homer Bailey is currently allowing 136% more PPA than the MLB average (2.110 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.91 (2.14 x 136%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.110 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.609
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Cardinals RHP on road Homer Bailey CIN 292 2.14 x 136% 2.91 +0.77 1.63 x 135% 2.19 +0.57
Athletics LHP on road Mike Minor TEX 417 2.43 x 115% 2.79 +0.36 1.84 x 114% 2.10 +0.26
Orioles LHP at home Drew Pomeranz BOS 173 1.94 x 138% 2.67 +0.73 1.51 x 135% 2.04 +0.53
Indians RHP at home Joe Musgrove PIT 233 2.60 x 98% 2.54 -0.06 1.95 x 99% 1.94 -0.02
Astros LHP on road Tyler Anderson COL 468 2.46 x 98% 2.41 -0.06 1.87 x 98% 1.84 -0.04
Rays RHP at home Masahiro Tanaka NYY 341 2.05 x 108% 2.21 +0.17 1.58 x 107% 1.69 +0.11
Tigers RHP on road Burch Smith KCR 194 1.74 x 126% 2.20 +0.45 1.36 x 124% 1.69 +0.33
Pirates RHP on road Shane Bieber CLE 183 2.18 x 96% 2.10 -0.08 1.67 x 100% 1.66 +0.00
Rangers RHP at home Frankie Montas OAK 205 2.19 x 95% 2.08 -0.11 1.65 x 97% 1.60 -0.05
Blue Jays RHP at home Jose Berrios MIN 510 2.30 x 90% 2.06 -0.24 1.74 x 90% 1.56 -0.18
Reds LHP at home Austin Gomber STL 59 2.25 x 93% 2.09 -0.17 1.69 x 91% 1.53 -0.16
Diamondbacks RHP on road Kyle Hendricks CHC 478 2.03 x 100% 2.03 +0.00 1.53 x 101% 1.55 +0.02
Brewers RHP at home Jeremy Hellickson WSN 251 2.25 x 90% 2.02 -0.23 1.70 x 91% 1.55 -0.15
Twins LHP on road Ryan Borucki TOR 104 1.96 x 101% 1.98 +0.02 1.49 x 102% 1.52 +0.03
Yankees RHP on road Yonny Chirinos TBR 115 2.23 x 87% 1.95 -0.28 1.69 x 89% 1.50 -0.19
Phillies RHP at home Kenta Maeda LAD 364 2.22 x 88% 1.96 -0.26 1.67 x 88% 1.48 -0.19
Mariners LHP at home Andrew Suarez SFG 363 1.95 x 98% 1.92 -0.03 1.51 x 100% 1.51 +0.00
Red Sox RHP on road Yefry Ramirez BAL 97 2.31 x 84% 1.93 -0.38 1.76 x 84% 1.47 -0.28
White Sox RHP on road Felix Pena LAA 113 1.98 x 94% 1.85 -0.13 1.52 x 96% 1.46 -0.07
Rockies RHP at home Gerrit Cole HOU 503 2.44 x 77% 1.88 -0.56 1.85 x 77% 1.43 -0.42
Nationals RHP on road Junior Guerra MIL 414 2.05 x 89% 1.83 -0.22 1.57 x 90% 1.41 -0.15
Royals RHP at home Jordan Zimmermann DET 258 1.83 x 99% 1.80 -0.02 1.41 x 100% 1.41 +0.00
Cubs RHP at home Clay Buchholz ARI 153 2.24 x 81% 1.81 -0.43 1.69 x 82% 1.40 -0.30
Mets LHP at home Eric Lauer SDP 355 1.53 x 115% 1.76 +0.23 1.19 x 116% 1.38 +0.19
Padres RHP on road Zack Wheeler NYM 460 1.74 x 96% 1.68 -0.06 1.36 x 96% 1.31 -0.05
Dodgers RHP on road Aaron Nola PHI 502 2.42 x 67% 1.62 -0.80 1.82 x 68% 1.25 -0.58
Giants LHP on road James Paxton SEA 481 1.76 x 91% 1.61 -0.15 1.36 x 92% 1.25 -0.11
Angels LHP at home Carlos Rodon CHW 182 1.68 x 93% 1.57 -0.11 1.30 x 93% 1.20 -0.10