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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Friday August 17

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Cleveland Indians are facing a RHP at home (David Hess BAL who has faced 265 batters). On FanDuel the Indians are currently putting up 2.57 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and David Hess is currently allowing 129% more PPA than the MLB average (2.118 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.31 (2.57 x 129%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.118 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Indians RHP at home David Hess BAL 265 2.57 x 129% 3.31 +0.74 1.93 x 126% 2.44 +0.51
Angels RHP on road Drew Hutchison TEX 134 2.26 x 131% 2.95 +0.69 1.72 x 128% 2.20 +0.49
Yankees RHP at home Marcus Stroman TOR 416 2.54 x 106% 2.70 +0.16 1.91 x 106% 2.01 +0.11
Rangers RHP at home Odrisamer Despaigne LAA 91 2.35 x 116% 2.73 +0.38 1.76 x 112% 1.97 +0.21
Nationals RHP at home Dan Straily MIA 423 2.29 x 110% 2.51 +0.23 1.73 x 108% 1.86 +0.13
White Sox RHP at home Jakob Junis KCR 553 2.10 x 111% 2.33 +0.23 1.62 x 111% 1.79 +0.18
Padres LHP at home Robbie Ray ARI 329 2.15 x 110% 2.37 +0.22 1.63 x 108% 1.76 +0.13
Pirates LHP at home Cole Hamels CHC 572 2.04 x 107% 2.18 +0.14 1.57 x 106% 1.66 +0.09
Blue Jays RHP on road Lance Lynn NYY 533 2.13 x 102% 2.17 +0.04 1.62 x 101% 1.64 +0.01
Rays LHP on road Brian Johnson BOS 315 2.03 x 101% 2.05 +0.02 1.57 x 103% 1.61 +0.04
Royals RHP on road James Shields CHW 670 1.95 x 107% 2.09 +0.13 1.51 x 105% 1.58 +0.07
Cubs RHP on road Trevor Williams PIT 514 2.20 x 94% 2.06 -0.13 1.68 x 94% 1.58 -0.10
Diamondbacks LHP on road Joey Lucchesi SDP 370 2.16 x 96% 2.07 -0.09 1.64 x 96% 1.57 -0.06
Giants RHP on road Anthony DeSclafani CIN 275 1.86 x 109% 2.02 +0.16 1.45 x 109% 1.58 +0.13
Twins LHP at home Matt Boyd DET 531 2.09 x 94% 1.96 -0.13 1.60 x 93% 1.48 -0.12
Red Sox TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.94 x 100% 1.94 +0.00 1.49 x 100% 1.49 +0.00
Astros RHP on road Edwin Jackson OAK 216 2.38 x 80% 1.90 -0.48 1.79 x 80% 1.44 -0.35
Braves LHP at home Kyle Freeland COL 610 2.22 x 84% 1.87 -0.35 1.69 x 86% 1.45 -0.23
Cardinals RHP at home Freddy Peralta MIL 235 2.00 x 96% 1.92 -0.08 1.53 x 91% 1.40 -0.13
Rockies LHP on road Sean Newcomb ATL 540 2.07 x 90% 1.86 -0.21 1.58 x 90% 1.42 -0.16
Dodgers LHP on road Wade LeBlanc SEA 480 1.93 x 96% 1.85 -0.08 1.47 x 97% 1.42 -0.04
Orioles RHP on road Carlos Carrasco CLE 551 1.97 x 92% 1.81 -0.16 1.52 x 94% 1.42 -0.10
Brewers RHP on road Jack Flaherty STL 420 2.03 x 87% 1.76 -0.27 1.57 x 86% 1.35 -0.21
Mariners RHP at home Walker Buehler LAD 327 2.01 x 85% 1.70 -0.31 1.56 x 86% 1.33 -0.23
Athletics RHP at home Charlie Morton HOU 566 1.96 x 83% 1.63 -0.33 1.49 x 83% 1.25 -0.25
Tigers RHP on road Kyle Gibson MIN 612 1.69 x 91% 1.53 -0.16 1.31 x 91% 1.19 -0.12
Marlins RHP on road Max Scherzer WSN 657 1.89 x 73% 1.38 -0.51 1.46 x 74% 1.08 -0.38
Reds RHP at home Casey Kelly SFG 24 2.11 x 54% 1.15 -0.96 1.60 x 57% 0.91 -0.69

Early Games

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.118 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Phillies RHP at home Noah Syndergaard NYM 401 2.23 x 83% 1.85 -0.38 1.69 x 86% 1.45 -0.24
Mets RHP on road Aaron Nola PHI 605 2.37 x 67% 1.60 -0.77 1.79 x 69% 1.24 -0.55

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Saturday August 11

By Leave a Comment

My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The New York Yankees are facing a RHP at home (Drew Hutchison TEX who has faced 110 batters). On FanDuel the Yankees are currently putting up 2.55 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Drew Hutchison is currently allowing 133% more PPA than the MLB average (2.117 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.38 (2.55 x 133%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.117 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.615
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Yankees RHP at home Drew Hutchison TEX 110 2.55 x 133% 3.38 +0.83 1.91 x 131% 2.50 +0.58
Phillies RHP on road Walker Lockett SDP 56 1.99 x 151% 3.00 +1.01 1.52 x 147% 2.24 +0.72
Red Sox RHP on road Yefry Ramirez BAL 158 2.38 x 115% 2.74 +0.36 1.80 x 112% 2.03 +0.22
Reds LHP at home Robbie Ray ARI 308 2.28 x 112% 2.56 +0.28 1.71 x 110% 1.89 +0.18
Diamondbacks LHP on road Matt Harvey CIN 451 2.18 x 115% 2.51 +0.33 1.65 x 115% 1.90 +0.24
Cardinals LHP on road Danny Duffy KCR 612 2.35 x 106% 2.48 +0.14 1.76 x 106% 1.86 +0.10
Mets RHP on road Dan Straily MIA 401 2.25 x 110% 2.48 +0.22 1.70 x 108% 1.83 +0.13
Brewers RHP on road Julio Teheran ATL 508 2.07 x 108% 2.23 +0.16 1.60 x 105% 1.68 +0.08
Indians RHP on road James Shields CHW 642 2.09 x 107% 2.23 +0.14 1.59 x 104% 1.66 +0.07
Rays RHP on road Sam Gaviglio TOR 347 1.96 x 112% 2.19 +0.23 1.51 x 112% 1.68 +0.17
Cubs RHP at home Tanner Roark WSN 578 2.25 x 98% 2.20 -0.05 1.70 x 98% 1.67 -0.03
Twins RHP on road Francisco Liriano DET 387 2.06 x 106% 2.18 +0.12 1.56 x 104% 1.63 +0.07
Blue Jays TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TBR – 2.16 x 100% 2.16 +0.00 1.63 x 100% 1.63 +0.00
Athletics LHP on road Tyler Skaggs LAA 472 2.37 x 90% 2.12 -0.24 1.79 x 91% 1.64 -0.16
Astros LHP at home Wade LeBlanc SEA 460 2.14 x 97% 2.08 -0.07 1.64 x 98% 1.61 -0.03
Pirates TBD on road TBD/Bullpen SFG – 2.10 x 100% 2.10 +0.00 1.60 x 100% 1.60 +0.00
Orioles LHP at home David Price BOS 533 2.10 x 99% 2.07 -0.02 1.62 x 99% 1.61 -0.01
Giants RHP at home Trevor Williams PIT 489 2.13 x 97% 2.06 -0.06 1.62 x 97% 1.57 -0.05
Rockies RHP at home Walker Buehler LAD 301 2.32 x 89% 2.05 -0.26 1.77 x 89% 1.58 -0.19
Rangers RHP on road Lance Lynn NYY 511 1.99 x 103% 2.05 +0.06 1.52 x 102% 1.54 +0.03
Angels RHP at home Edwin Jackson OAK 189 2.39 x 85% 2.04 -0.35 1.80 x 86% 1.54 -0.26
Marlins RHP at home Corey Oswalt NYM 134 1.83 x 106% 1.94 +0.11 1.42 x 104% 1.48 +0.06
Nationals LHP on road Jon Lester CHC 549 1.99 x 98% 1.94 -0.05 1.51 x 98% 1.48 -0.03
Red Sox TBD on road TBD (Game 2) – 1.85 x 100% 1.85 +0.00 1.42 x 100% 1.42 +0.00
Tigers RHP at home Kyle Gibson MIN 584 1.99 x 92% 1.83 -0.16 1.53 x 92% 1.40 -0.13
Mariners RHP on road Charlie Morton HOU 543 2.17 x 82% 1.77 -0.40 1.66 x 82% 1.36 -0.30
Orioles TBD at home TBD (Game 2) – 1.62 x 100% 1.62 +0.00 1.28 x 100% 1.28 +0.00
Dodgers LHP on road Kyle Freeland COL 582 1.94 x 84% 1.62 -0.31 1.47 x 86% 1.25 -0.21
Royals RHP at home Jack Flaherty STL 395 1.86 x 87% 1.62 -0.23 1.43 x 87% 1.25 -0.18
White Sox RHP at home Trevor Bauer CLE 659 2.12 x 73% 1.56 -0.56 1.63 x 74% 1.21 -0.42
Braves LHP at home Wade Miley MIL 143 2.10 x 70% 1.48 -0.62 1.60 x 71% 1.13 -0.46
Padres RHP at home Aaron Nola PHI 580 1.86 x 68% 1.27 -0.59 1.43 x 70% 1.00 -0.42