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Auction Draft Lessons Learned and Draft Buddy Tips

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Last night marked the inaugural auction draft for the Screw ‘Um fantasy baseball league, organized by longtime Cheatsheet Compiler & Draft Buddy user, ezcollectibles, and run on ESPN’s league management website. The auction was meant to start at 8:00 Eastern, but when one of the 14 owners failed to get logged on, repeatedly, we had to say goodbye to him and delay the draft start to 9:00 Eastern. The ESPN auction is a good setup, but not flexible on short notice if something like this happens.

Fortunately ezcollectibles had an extra family member kicking around to make up the 14th team, and everyone else showed good patience sticking it out for the new start time and later night than planned.

TEAM MACGREGOR
C Kurt Suzuki, Oak
1B Lance Berkman, StL
2B Dustin Ackley, Sea
3B Michael Young, Tex
SS Starlin Castro, ChC
OF Justin Upton, Ari
OF Hunter Pence, Phi
OF Shane Victorino, Phi
DH Billy Butler, KC
OF Drew Stubbs, Cin
OF Peter Bourjos, LAA
1B Kendrys Morales, LAA
OF Bryce Harper, Wsh
SP Ricky Romero, Tor
SP Ubaldo Jimenez, Cle
SP Tommy Hanson, Atl
SP Brandon Morrow, Tor
SP Mike Minor, Atl
RP Grant Balfour, Oak
SP Francisco Liriano, Min

All in all, it was a very fun auction draft. I like my team overall, but I made some mis-steps I wish I could take back. That is a typical outcome from an auction, since they are rather unpredictable. What looks like a good deal on a player one minute turns out to be a gross overpayment, when similarly ranked players end up going for bargain basement prices later.

As mentioned, it is a 14-team league with only 20 roster spots, so not a particularly deep league. The format is head-to-head with 5X5 roto scoring. We had $260 to spend at the auction. My post-auction roster is on the right, and ranges from a high dollar amount paid for Justin Upton at $48, while there were a handful of $1 and $2 players, including Kendrys Morales and Grant Balfour.

It seemed like a good idea to use this recent experience to create another YouTube video to discuss auctions in general, and also some specific tips using Draft Buddy for an auction. The video below includes discussion on using your cheatsheet as a guide to bid on players rather than using the dollar values as if they are set in stone. This particularly applies to high value players to ensure you don’t get shutout getting your share of studs on your roster. Depth is great, but an entire team of average players will usually provide just average results.

Also, it is important to appropriately value your roster spots. You may be able to bid on anyone in an auction, but you can’t buy everyone, not only because of the money but also because of limited space on your roster. I use my acquisition of Bryce Harper as an example of me not judging my remaining roster spots correctly.

Finally, some tips specific to Draft Buddy during an auction draft, including how to quickly find players that are still undrafted and can best help you in specific roto categories. The video is a tad long for my liking at 12 minutes, but I think you’ll find some valuable stuff in there if you have an auction coming up.


 

More Draft Rules of Thumb

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Continuing the draft strategy advice posted last week, here are five more tips or rules of thumb to keep in mind for your upcoming draft.

6. Don’t Have Too Many Sleepers

Sleepers are the ultimate way to show your competition that you have done your homework and hit a home run on a player. Nonetheless, a roster that has too many sleepers can tend to be one built with a lot of potential but low or inconsistent production. Sleepers are ranked low for a reason – they are higher risk players, and even if they do “hit”, they make take some time to come around and for you to trust starting them on a regular basis.

Therefore, don’t fill out your roster with too many sleepers, especially when there are solid veterans with a proven track record of decent production available. Let’s look at the 49ers wide receiver position heading into last season. Old reliable Isaac Bruce was entering his first season in San Francisco but all the preseason hype was focused on rookie 6th round pick Josh Morgan. At season’s end, Bruce had tallied 125 fantasy points compared to Morgan’s 50. Try to strike a nice balance between upside sleeper picks, and steady, unsexy veteran picks.

7. Never Reach Too Much For Your Sleepers

Just about every team is going to have a couple of sleepers in mind as they head into their draft. As the rounds drift by or the auction dollars get spent, anxiety always enters the picture. Is this the last chance to nab Michael Crabtree, Chris Wells or whoever your sleeper or deep sleeper is? As the pulse quickens, take a step back and remember the definition of a sleeper – a player who provides tremendous value. If you reach for your sleeper a couple of rounds early or spend too much on them, you’re effectively defeating the purpose.

8. Don’t Draft With Trades In Mind

If you’ve been playing fantasy football long enough, you’ve been in a situation where the draft hasn’t gone according to plan and you have made a pick that has put you in a hole. Maybe you took a second tier QB in the fourth round and then watched as two or three rounds passed before a very similar QB was taken and your opponents look to have better rosters than yours currently looks.

At this point, don’t scan other teams’ rosters for holes and then take a player in the hopes of trading that player to fix a hole in your roster. One for one trades after the draft don’t happen very often because teams have just picked their rosters based on their perceived values of the players they have chosen. The one cardinal rule (and sin) in fantasy football is that every owner overvalues their team and players immediately after a draft. Unless available information changes (injuries, revised depth charts, suspensions, etc.), teams aren’t moving their higher draft pick for your lower draft pick. Realistically, only package trades happen immediately after a draft and it generally doesn’t make sense to be banking on a later trade during your draft.

The one caveat to this rule is that there may be occasions where in the middle rounds of a draft a running back or wide receiver is available who is too good to pass up. In terms of 2009, think Colts running back Joseph Addai being available in the 6th round or Vikings wide receiver Bernard Berrian being available in the 8th round. On these rare occasions, the value just might be too great to pass on.

9. Participate In Mock Drafts

Because it’s all about value, mock drafts are an invaluable tool in learning what the general prevailing wisdom is regarding players and their teams. A mock draft will help you determine whether owners believe certain players will return strong from an injury or injury plagued season, whether an up and coming player is ready for a breakout season, etc.

Plus, it’s a great way to hone your draft skills. Participating in a mock might help you remember that mistake you made last year and how you plan to avoid it this year. Maybe it will jar your memory regarding your opponents’ tendencies. If you’re going to be in an auction draft, it’s a great way to get a feel for the flow of an auction.

10. Don’t Take A Player As Payback

Perhaps during the course of your draft, an opponent has taken one of your handcuffs and you now have an opportunity to take one of theirs. Or maybe in last year’s draft, an opponent took the handcuff of your RB1 and left you with a hole on your roster. Building your team isn’t about paybacks so it’s important to focus on the task at hand – getting the best possible fantasy roster that you can. It’s possible that your opponent valued your handcuff more than you did. Maybe they think Adrian Peterson is injury prone so taking Chester Taylor in the 5th round makes sense. If so, they’re unlikely to want to swap handcuffs with you anyways. Move on and finish building your roster with a solid pick instead of one based on spite.

One final tip for auction drafts. Although it doesn’t work for every player because your opponents will figure out your tactic, let other teams bid on key players you have targeted and then when the bidding appears to have stopped, jump in with a bid to get your target. As the number of teams bidding on a player is reduced and the price rises, there’s a tendency for owners to convince themselves that the price they think they are about to pay is solid value for that player. For example, if the bidding on Tom Brady is going up a dollar a bid and seems to have stopped at $40, the owner who has bid $40 will rationalize that this was a good price. If they have rationalized Brady’s value in this manner, then they are unlikely to immediately change their thought process and now view Brady as being worth, say, $43. Jump into the bidding late and he’s likely yours.

Finally, it’s important to remember that we’re all in this for fun. Roll with the punches, enjoy your draft or auction and don’t take it too seriously. Even if your auction doesn’t go according to plan, your in-season roster management ability of executing trades and acquiring players on the waiver wire provides an opportunity to correct any deficiencies in your roster that have occurred during the draft. Plus, a few solid starting line-up decisions may nab a win or two and that always helps.

Draft Strategy-Advice-Tips du Jour

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On the heels of my draft strategy article, it seemed like a good idea to hit on a number of smaller topics to help guide you through your upcoming fantasy football draft.

1. Value Is King

The most important consideration in any fantasy draft or auction is value. Theoretically, if every player that an owner acquires outperforms their draft position or auction cost, that team will be a contender for the league title. Of course, obtaining value is easy to say and hard to do. However, there are some basic tenets that are useful in ensuring your roster is shaped by solid values.

First off, do your homework and get your cheatsheets filled out early and update often as the preseason progresses. If you follow the league throughout the year, you’re up to date on league news. If not, then get up to date. Thomas Jones was a revelation for the Jets last year but the team has lost Brett Favre and Laveranues Coles on offense. As a result, Jones is almost certainly looking at a drop in production. Second, avoid falling in love with certain players. Follow your tiers (more on that below) and don’t reach for a player. Third, try to fill out your starting line-up before moving on to filling your bench spots. After all, bench points don’t count except in leagues where they settle ties.

In one of my dynasty leagues, the owners place tremendous value on running backs so the wide receivers are great values. In three years, the only stud running back I’ve had is Joseph Addai and that is because I picked him up as a rookie.

2. Have A Flexible Strategy

Whatever your strategy is heading into your draft, you need to be prepared to alter it if the draft does not turn out as you expected. If you had anticipated getting a solid running back with the 11th pick and running backs come off the board with the first 10 picks, then it’s time to change gears. Rather than take an injury prone Brandon Jacobs or a banged up Brian Westbrook, consider taking your top rated QB or Larry Fitzgerald, the consensus top WR, before getting a running back .

In snake drafts, many owners attempt to map out their first three picks. Some follow the two-stud running back approach, while others may want a tier one player at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. In many instances, it’s possible that the draft will flow in a manner that results in an owner being able to follow their strategy. However, if that doesn’t occur, you need to be flexible and move on. It’s better to be flexible than being rigid and following a strategy that nets you Ryan Grant instead of Larry Fitzgerald just because you were set on taking running backs with your first two picks.

3. Follow Your Tiers

The concept of tiering is invaluable in a fantasy draft or auction. The concept is basically to tier (group) players at each position based on similar anticipated production. For example, in 2009 the top tier of QB consists of Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning. At RB, the top tier consists of Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner and Matt Forte.

As your draft or auction proceeds, you then have an idea of where the value lies. If the top tier of running backs is gone, it might be time to target a top tier WR or QB. Once the top tier of QB, RB and WR are exhausted, perhaps it’s time to target a top tier TE.

Essentially, an owner that drafts according to his tiers is less likely to overpay for a certain player. Plus, if the last player in a tier is available at your pick, you know to take that player.

In auction leagues, tiering can be very useful if you are aware of the status of the other team’s rosters. For instance, assume that in a 10-team league, four teams need starting QB and there are five tier three QB available. There is no need to overpay for the first three or four QB put up for auction. Wait for the other nine teams to fill out their starter position and then get one of the remaining tier two QB cheaply because the other teams are not likely to overpay for a backup QB.

Alternatively, if four teams need a starter and only three tier two QB are available, then you likely want to get the first or second player put up for auction because there will be two teams battling to get the final tier two QB, thereby driving up the auction cost.

4. Look Ahead And Anticipate The Flow Of Your Draft

In snake drafts, the flow of the draft will generally result in runs on players, roughly based on tiers to the extent owners have similar rankings. After the first QB is chosen, there is the possibility that the entire first tier of QB may go quickly after. As the group of tier one WR dwindles, there could be a run on these players.

Because of this, it’s important to spend as much of your downtime during the draft focusing on your opponents’ rosters as on your own roster. If you have an idea that there will be a run on tier one WR prior to your next pick, you can be ready to perhaps take the top TE available. Alternatively, if there are a number of tier two RB available at your pick but you anticipate there won’t be a top tier WR available with your pick next, perhaps you may want to grab the WR now.

In auction leagues, there is a definite ebb and flow that transpires during the course of the auction whether it is in dynasty or non-dynasty leagues. Generally, teams will focus the early part of the draft acquiring high priced talent thereby reducing their ability to spend later in the draft. At a certain point after teams have spent a decent amount of their auction dollars, they take a breather and it is at this point that values become available. After they re-enter the fray and complete filling out their rosters, there is another point where values become available. In 2008, this was when the likes of Thomas Jones, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels became available.

Last year, in one auction dynasty league, I nabbed Steve Smith for $46 and Brandon Marshall for $47 during a lull in the proceedings after another owner had spent $70 on Terrell Owens. In this league, $70 for Owens wasn’t a bad deal and certainly wasn’t a precedent but obviously Smith and Marshall were better values.

5. Don’t Ignore The Rap Sheet

For most of us, the cup is half full as opposed to half empty. We want to believe that player X will bust out, player Y will bounce back and player Z will stay out of trouble. In 2008, DeAngelo Williams busted out, Kurt Warner bounced back and Antonio Bryant stayed out of trouble. Unfortunately, Marshawn Lynch didn’t bust out, Roy Williams didn’t bounce back and Larry Johnson didn’t stay out of trouble.

Analyzing the common denominators of certain players who underachieve isn’t too difficult. Players with attitude and criminal issues should carry a red flag and be ranked lower than they would otherwise be. Bryant is a perfect example. He was a huge surprise as the 8th ranked fantasy WR in 2008 which would warrant him being drafted in the 3rd round in 2009. However, he lost his QB and complained about receiving the franchise tag and getting an $8-million one-year contract as opposed to a long-term extension.

There’s nothing wrong with taking players of questionable character but there are two rules when you do so. Don’t reach for these players and never have too many of them on your roster. Otherwise, you will be carrying substantial risk heading into your fantasy football season.