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FPC Draft Recap and Observations Drafting From 5th Pick

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Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Drafting from the 5th spot, pretty happy with this team acquired last night in the Footballguys Players Championship. PPR (1.5 for TE), start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE, 1 K, 1 DEF

Last night I took part in the third of three leagues I signed up for in the Footballguys Players Championship (FPC) hosted by the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). I know, confusingly similar acronyms, but on the plus side, there is a $300,000 grand prize in the overall championship. Not that I expect to win the top prize among 7,500 teams, but I do expect to win at least one of these three leagues that awards $1,500 for first place. Two of three would be dandy.

In the previous two drafts, I had the 12th pick and the 2nd pick. This time the 5th pick, which is pretty good in my humble opinion. Here are some of my takes from the draft. Note for Draft Buddy customers, you can download each of the completed Draft Buddy files I used in these drafts so you can review the entire draft.

Let me start by saying that even though we have Adrian Peterson as the top RB on our board, I already got him in the draft where I had the second overall pick, so I felt perhaps I would diversify with this league. Leaving AP outside my Top 5 for this draft, I made a short list of Antonio Brown, Le’Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy, Jamaal Charles and Rob Gronkowski for my first pick.

It turned out Julio Jones went 1.04 (I like it) leaving me Charles and Gronk to choose from. While many experts love Gronk in the first round, I’m not as much in that camp. I think it is doable. I think in this league in particular with 1.5 points-per-reception (PPR) for TE compared to 1 PPR for RB and WR, it makes sense mathematically, but I just don’t love taking a player first round in a spot where I only have to fill one starter.

Many experts are very much in support of the Upside Down drafting, or later called Zero-RB drafting methodology, forgoing RB in the first, even early rounds, for stud wide receivers instead and stockpiling middle round RB later. The first I read about it is from buddy Matt Waldman (2011), giving credit where credit is due. However, without getting into a lot of detail today, I disagree with that approach. I’ve always found a more balanced approach is best, RB-WR or WR-RB to open things up and leave you best set up to take advantage of players that unexpectedly fall in the draft, no matter what position they are.

First pick, I took Jamaal Charles.

When the second pick came around to me, DeMarco Murray – maybe Lamar Miller – were the only two RB remaining I really loved enough before seeing a big gap between them and the next group at RB. At WR, the current tier of Alshon Jeffery, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins and even Brandin Cooks was deeper. If I took a WR, Miller might make it back to me. If I took Murray, one of those WR – or Jimmy Graham – was much more likely to make it back to me. So, I took Murray.

Third round, one pick away and a bit surprisingly, Graham and Jeffery were both available, thanks in part to Joseph Randle going 3.01. The team in the 4 spot took Graham, leaving me Jeffery.

After three rounds I’ve got two star running backs, and Alshon Jeffery. I’m happy with that. Lets keep in mind it is a PPR league and I really do want a strong WR corps, so I think given my early picks I have less need to stockpile middle round RB and more emphasis at wideout. Also, keeping in mind TE do earn 1.5 PPR so need to constantly assess where a good one can be had, preferably at good draft value. Two are already off the board, and likely more before the draft gets back to me in the 4th round.

From here, maybe I’ll make some quicker bullet points by round. You can see how my roster took shape in the image above, and again, Draft Buddy users can download my completed Draft Buddy from last night’s draft.

Rounds 1 and 2

  • Nothing too out of the ordinary Round 1. Owners in the 4th, 11th and 12th spots all started WR-WR. Interesting that Randall Cobb (2.02) didn’t really get downgraded at all for his shoulder injury. Surprise pick: Brandin Cooks (2.09) but even more surprising: Mark Ingram (2.03). I’ve never seen Ingram go that high. In that owner’s shoes I would have risked he would get back to me in the 3rd, but I don’t have a problem with it, as he may very well could have missed out on him by waiting.

Round 3

  • Joseph Randle (3.01) seems quite high given very recent news item about full-blown RBBC in Dallas, and Darren McFadden looked better than Randle in the last preseason game.
  • Not surprisingly, Greg Olsen, Travis Kelce (who I really like, but maybe not in this league since I already have Charles) and Martellus Bennett all went this round after Graham went.
  • First QB taken, Andrew Luck at 3.07. Still too early for me with all of the non-QB starter spots to fill.

Rounds 4 and 5

  • These rounds make me happy I went RB-RB to start. While there are certainly going to be some RB that pan out, you are still picking through many, “geez, I don’t know” options. Melvin Gordon (4.09) – maybe he hits, maybe he doesn’t. Todd Gurley (5.03) – seems really optimistic for this year. C.J. Spiller (5.11) – already sidelined, think very early bullish forecasts on Spiller are still causing him to get drafted high for my taste.
  • I took Davante Adams 4.08. Great offense, great QB, their best not injured WR right now. Definitely prefer to run with a less proven Adams in his situation than injured Emmanuel Sanders (4.04) or injured likely out Week 1, and doesn’t find the end zone much anyway, Julian Edelman (4.12).
  • My 5th round pick was a tough one. Jarvis Landry – high receptions but limited big plays and strong supporting cast to share with, good offense and QB – vs. Sammy Watkins – super talent, bad offense and QB. I said to my wife Sarah, “Bills WR?” to which she turned up her nose, and I knew she would do that so a bit of a leading question. It was more likely Watkins might make it back to me in the 6th round, so I took Landry, who I seem to like more than most.

Rounds 6 and 7

  • I was thinking Watkins obviously. Or Charles Johnson as a potential breakout candidate. I was thinking Arian Foster as I loved my start and at this point if he comes back in the Week 4-6 range, could be a huge boom to the bottom line. None made it to my 6.08 pick. Johnson actually went late-5th. Watkins was close, at 6.05.
  • In the meanwhile, Jason Witten and Kyle Rudolph both went, driving down the available good tight ends, and only one of the first four teams drafting after me had a TE at this point, so I added Delanie Walker (6.08).
  • Only QB I mentioned so far is Andrew Luck, but Aaron Rodgers also went in the 3rd, Ben Roethlisberger in the 6th, then Matt Ryan (7.01) and Drew Brees (7.04). Ultimately, this turned out to be one of the oddest order of QB I’ve seen drafted this year. Five QB are gone but Russell Wilson and Peyton Manning are still available? I would not normally take a QB this early but since no players were really standing out for me as must-haves, and Wilson looks like exceptional value, I tag Wilson.
  • Although Martavis Bryant getting drafted two spots later I may have strongly considered had I thought of him. He was down my cheatsheet given the most recent projection update.
  • More proof I’m glad I went RB early as Giovani Bernard and Danny Woodhead are getting drafted. I’d rather set my team apart at this stage with a Walker, Wilson, or regularly contributing WR, than be scraping together points from low-use RB who can be very good in short spurts but be tough to rely on them over the course of the season.

Rounds 8, 9 and 10

  • QB curiosity continued. Peyton went at 8.12, but Sam Bradford (9.03) and Teddy Bridgewater (9.07) went within spitting distance of him. Cam Newton still hasn’t been drafted and ultimately went QB16 at the top of the 14th round. Pretty baffling. Since I had Wilson I was determined to not spend very much at all on a second QB, but some great values there. All the more reason to not spend a 3rd round pick on Luck or Rodgers.
  • Still some good WR picks in here – Steve Smith, Roddy White (although getting a bit skeptical of him) – and RB picks are sketchy. LeGarrette Blount, who I’ve drafted numerous times already this year, could be good but could also be extremely frustrating to try to figure out what weeks to start him (after his suspension).
  • Given importance of the position and limited options with true upside, took Julius Thomas. He seems below the radar now since we haven’t heard much about him lately, but Jaguars offense seems to be clicking and JT appears in line to return Week 1.
  • At this point, I still only have 2 RB, so time to add some depth. DeMarco’s backup Ryan Mathews went 8.09 immediately after I took Thomas, so hitting on a starter at this point will be tough. Darren McFadden is available, every Cleveland RB is available. What if Arian Foster isn’t back as optimistically as recent news reports? What if he comes back and gets hurt again? I do think Alfred Blue is the clear guy to own over Jonathan Grimes and Chris Polk, so I tag Blue who should start first part of the season and gives me time to work the waiver wire for other RB options to emerge.

I guess I will cut it off there for the commentary. While not an optimal high stakes, win the big overall prize strategy, I did handcuff Jamaal drafting Knile Davis in the 11th round. I feel good about the team, I might as well take out a little insurance on my top RB.

As usual, got sniped by a pick or two on a few guys, but its always going to feel that way. What I’ve learned is you can’t have every player you want, there are only so many roster spots available. I think I got some underrated, quality upside depth at decent value, and this team has a good shot to compete for the league championship, and maybe more!

Admitted Draft Addict Explains MFL10s Draft-Only Bestball Fantasy Football Leagues

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Hailing from Boston and big New England Patriots and TE Rob Gronkowski fan, Mike Margossian is an admitted addict for drafting MFL10s. He describes what they are and about constructing your roster.

Hailing from Boston and big New England Patriots and TE Rob Gronkowski fan, Mike Margossian (@MikeMar05) is an admitted addict for drafting MFL10s. He describes what they are and about constructing your roster.

Any fantasy football players out there noticed the hashtag #MFL10s on Twitter and wondered what that is all about?

Fantasy football league hosting platform MyFantasyLeague offers 12-team draft-only bestball leagues, most commonly called MFL10s. In these leagues you draft 20 players to fill your roster and then you are done all you need to do to manage this team for the season. The website automatically starts your best players each week.

The team with the most points accumulated Weeks 1 through 16 of the NFL season takes home the top prize. A $10 entry fee MFL10 awards $100 for 1st place, and a free entry in the following season for 2nd place. There are also $25 and higher entry fee levels with different prize structures.

The roster includes a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB, WR or TE), 1 Team Defense and 11 bench players. These leagues can be accessed from a great new dashboard this year at MFL10s.com where you can make a bulk deposit and join leagues right from there.

Last year I did 40 MFL10 drafts – winning six plus finishing 2nd in ten. They are a ton of fun for only $10, and no time commitment problems after the fact. I can’t get enough of these things! This year my goal is to do 70. Now that I’ve explained a little what an MFL10 is, lets talk about constructing your roster.

Typical Roster Construction

There are multiple thoughts on the best way to build a roster, but on average the typical roster is:

  • 2-3 QB
  • 4-6 RB
  • 6-8 WR
  • 2-3 TE
  • 2-3 DEF

The biggest thing to remember that these leagues are draft only, so if someone gets injured for the season, they can’t be replaced. The other point is that this is a bestball league. This increases the value of guys you would not usually risk starting in a normal league, but in bestball could put up 3 fantasy points for multiple weeks but then score a TD and earn a “start”, giving you some value.

Roster Construction Rational

Quarterbacks
If you are able to get two Top 12 QBs then I typically stick with just those two as the additional spot elsewhere is more likely to help and get you points each week.

Running Backs
RB position is still king in MFL10s for many reasons: lack of depth in the position, no option to use waivers to pick up guys like Justin Forsett, and they still score a lot of points. If I am able to get a stud, and 2-3 guys I really like, I sometimes stick with four (which can be a little risky) or more likely five.

If I start a draft off WR heavy, I will try and get six RB. With more time shares at RB and MFL10s being bestball, you don’t need to guess which RB will score a TD, so getting guys who just get on the field is a big help.

The majority of the time I do not believe in handcuffing in these drafts. Your goal in these leagues is to come in 1st place instead of trying to make the playoffs. A RB that puts up a 0 every week is going to hurt you, but at best (if your guy goes down) you make a lateral move to the handcuff. Burning two roster spots for one player’s production is not usually a value proposition.

Wide Receiver
WR (along with TE) are helped the most by the bestball format. MFL10s user +1 point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. The scoring, coupled with starting 3-4 WR each week, means you typically want to roster at least six or seven. I try to get eight when I can, given other strengths.

Most WRs will score points each week, but they are almost impossible to guess the weeks they will score a TD, so having 7-8 of them gives you good odds of having consistently strong weeks in your starting lineup. Players drafted in the late rounds like Doug Baldwin or Rueben Randle have value. You can survive weeks they get 1-2 catches in exchange for the weeks they stumble into the end zone.

There is a strategy of stacking 2-3 WR from the same team (typically without the stud). Taking the WR2 and WR3 past Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson has been a successful strategy in the past, although it does change each year and can be heavily influenced post-NFL Draft. The thinking behind this is the WR2 and WR3 level players are a lot harder to predict, so you hope that either one from the same team has a big game and/or a TD in any given week.

Tight End
Unless I get two studs (Jimmy Graham plus Michael Bennett, for example) I will try and take three. TEs are even more volatile than WRs and more TD dependent. Even holding Rob Gronkowski, Graham or Travis Kelce plus an average backup, a third TE on the roster can be helpful. There are bye weeks (obviously) and of course down weeks, but your team truly benefits when a backup TE scores a TD and fills your flex spot.

Team Defense
Defenses are by far the most random position, and with bestball, you don’t play matchups. I try not to take a defense until Round 16 at the very earliest. Roster at least two, and more times than not I draft three. Even the worst defense can have weeks they get a pick-6 or shutout the Cleveland Browns. Having three can help ensure you have a decent to good score each week. Even three sub-par teams can put up decent points collectively over the course of the season.

Draft Strategy and MFL10 Tool

The prior section gives an overview of what your final roster should look like, position-wise. The next question is what strategy to get you there.

There are numerous strategies to employ tackling these MFL10 leagues. I will delve into different strategies including my favorite one, “Volume Value Drafting”, and describe an Excel tool I built to support my MFL10 drafting addiction in part two of this article. If you would like a sneak peak before part two is posted, visit my blog about the MFL10 draft tool.

Tried and True Draft Strategies

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The NFL, in typical copycat fashion, has adopted new trends like the wildcat and committee backfields that we are used to seeing only in the college game. We are also seeing some movement towards dynasty franchises (Patriots, Steelers) and away from the much ballyhooed parity of the late 1990s.

As a result of this, the fantasy football landscape has changed heading into the 2009 NFL season. The prognosticators are suggesting that owners should take wide receivers earlier than ever before, that taking wide receivers with each of your first two picks might be an acceptable strategy and that taking a quarterback early makes good sense.

What does this mean for the traditional approach to fantasy football? Maybe not as much as it seems. It says here that, because so many others are getting wild in their approaches, the best strategy is to stick to the tried and true. While some of the owners in your league are trying out new strategies, I’m advocating this is the year to stick to the old school approach perhaps more than ever. In this piece, I offer some advice on using the tried and true fantasy draft strategies.

Stud Running Back Theory

Tradition dictates that the most conservative fantasy draft approach is to get 2 top flight ball carriers in the first two rounds of your draft. In recent years we’ve seen players like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Randy Moss and Terrell Owens turn this strategy around a little. Heading into 2009, many prognosticators are advising the fantasy drafter to avoid the pitfall of overpaying for a tailback and go for the value provided by a top tier WR. Ironically this is exactly why you should take two RB at the top of your draft.

As more and more owners talk themselves into Andre Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald as a top 7 pick in your draft, solid players like Frank Gore and Clinton Portis are getting pushed down the board. If your draft plays out like the experts project, go against that and secure two backs early. There will be plenty of talent left at WR in rounds 3 and 4.

Wait at Quarterback

In years gone by, the popular advice has been to let the suckers in your league overpay for a QB by squandering an early pick on one. This year Drew Brees, Brady and Manning are in everyone’s top 24. They shouldn’t be in yours.

Assuming standard lineup and scoring, there is a good size middle tier of passers to choose from as the draft wears on. After those three passers, ask yourself how much difference you see between them and Donovan McNabb, Aaron Rodgers or Philip Rivers. I would even argue that you can expect solid production from Tony Romo, Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer too.

Why not use the top 5 or 6 picks to stack up your backfield and receiving corps? Then take your pick of whoever is left from the above list. Just be sure you get another capable QB towards rounds 9 or 10 as insurance against the question marks the last group has.

Parity vs. Strength of Schedule

The age of parity reduced our focus on schedule strength and that might be a good thing. You shouldn’t spend a lot of time analyzing team stats from last year or avoiding players who play on a specific team altogether. What you do need to do is figure out some ‘absolute truths’ about the game.

In my opinion, the most absolute scheduling truth in existence is, “it sucks to play against the Ravens”. I won’t spend thousands of words explaining this or positing other truths; you get the idea. So what’s the plan? Don’t avoid everyone in the AFC North and don’t avoid teams from other conferences playing the Ravens. What you do need to do is make sure your entire team doesn’t have to face the Ravens as the season wears on.

The flip side, of course, is that playing against the Lions, Saints and Rams promises to be great for fantasy stats. Don’t change your cheatsheets (much), but just be aware of these opportunities as you draft.

The moral of the story is that you can be successful at fantasy football using various strategies, so don’t discount the traditional strategies just because there is a new flavour of the season. Watch what the other guys in your draft are doing, and adjust accordingly. If everyone thinks they are going against the grain, then really, no one is going against the grain.