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Thoughts for Final Week of Fantasy Football Drafts

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Peyton Barber

I recommend drafting Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber given his current fantasy football draft cost

And just like that we are into the final week of fantasy football drafts. As I posted over at the FF Today Forums this morning, announcing our latest Draft Buddy projections update, today I am going to sign up for some more online drafts.

Then, I will surely be kicking myself later with all of the time required for in-season management thanks to being in too many leagues! Ah, but I love to draft! Best ball?

Here are some notes, updates and random thoughts for your fantasy football draft before we get into real football starting in exactly one week!

Draft Buddy Projections Update

This morning we updated the FF Today projections, rankings, ADP and depth charts in Draft Buddy. Here are the projection highlights:

  • Alshon Jeffery down
  • Dallas Goedert up
  • Sammy Watkins down
  • Chris Hogan up
  • Slight bumps for Bilal Powell, James White and Peyton Barber
  • Slight bump down for Carson Wentz

A tip I mentioned on Twitter… if you have keepers and/or draft pick trades in Draft Buddy, on the action tab change both reset options to “no” before hitting Update Projections.

Thanks for supporting Draft Buddy, and good luck to everyone still drafting!

Recent Draft Results

Here are rosters from six of my drafts (yes, there are more) to help me pick out some trends to hopefully provide some insight for your remaining drafts.

Apparently I have zero luck getting a Top 6 pick this year. The Dirty Dozen was set by prior year finish, but three times picking 12th, two 8th and one 10th. C’mon man.

Quarterback

While I went with a top QB a couple times, I definitely lean more to the wait. There is a big group of players with similar expectations. Jared Goff and Derek Carr represent a great combination of low cost and upside in my opinion.

I was not even dreaming of drafting Jameis Winston at the start of the preseason, but he’s looked great and Bucs offense has numerous weapons. I wouldn’t normally hold a third QB but between Winston, who could perform as a Top 6 QB upon his return, over throwing another dart at a bench RB or WR, it feels worth the wait for a draft cost of next to nothing.

Running Back

These drafts are in order from most recent to oldest, left to right first row then second row. Note the last four drafts I took Kenyan Drake. He is getting a little more expensive now as people are seeing the opportunity available to him.

Clearly I was searching for value at RB from the Green Bay Packers and Indianapolis Colts backfields throughout draft season. I still think Ty Montgomery will be passable fantasy contributor (all of these drafts are PPR) but I am pretty much fading the three Packers backs now.

On the Colts, I will still take a shot on Jordan Wilkins because there are Nyheim Hines believers out there, keeping Wilkins cost pretty low.

Wide Receiver

At WR, wish I had a little less Demaryius Thomas, as he is sliding in drafts now, and wish I had more Cooper Kupp. He will be a sweet security blanket for Goff, and is used in the red zone.

I tried to make a point of grabbing Marquise Goodwin before the market caught up with him, but then you can see with the two most recent drafts I switched gears to the now cheaper Pierre Garcon. At the end of the day, I want a piece of the San Francisco 49ers passing game, and preferably (as with all picks) at a reasonable cost.

Tight End

Top TE hasn’t worked out from a value standpoint the last couple drafts, and I’ve become more interested in Indianapolis Colts Jack Doyle. I have a little apprehension about the potential slice of receptions going to Eric Ebron over Doyle.

Ricky Seals-Jones has a nice opportunity for himself and is really cheap. I’m in, obviously, but realizing how unreliable he very well could be, I opted for Ben Watson in my last draft over Seals-Jones. I may take a third TE in that league (still drafting), RSJ or rookie Dallas Goedert, to see how each start the season under my team control rather than taking a chance leaving them on waivers.

Draft Peyton Barber

In the interest of time I’ll post my tweets about drafting Peyton Barber.

Yikes, that is a lot of RB to name below Barber when I was originally throwing out an estimate of 10. Will definitely need to revisit this one later.

Good Luck Champ!

Darren Summer

Two-time Fantasy Football World Champion and long-time Draft Buddy member, Darren Summer

Crazy I didn’t piece this together years go, but we have a pseudo-celebrity among our Draft Buddy members. Or maybe better to say A-level celebrity (in fantasy football circles). Darren Summer, who has used Draft Buddy for years and years, we’ve emailed back and forth pretty much every season, and I knew he played in the higher stakes leagues online and in Las Vegas.

Darren is the 2018 Scout Fantasy, Fantasy Football World Champion. And… he also won it in 2016! Two-time champ! Draft Buddy user. Awesome stuff Darren, and good luck again this year!

Scott Fish Bowl SFB8 Fantasy Football Draft Preparation

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Scott Fish Bowl
The Scott Fish Bowl (#SFB8) draft kicked off Monday at 11:00am Eastern, and I am in the Norm Peterson league of the Cheers / Seinfeld conference.

Never heard of the Scott Fish Bowl? It is one of the most fun fantasy football expert leagues (and in this case expert + fan competition) to participate in. There is no money at stake, but this 900 person event does raise considerable funds for charity through FantasyCares.net. It is an awesome event for the fantasy football community.

Unique League Rules

This is a large overall competition but it is broken down into 12-team leagues. Focusing on the individual league aspect, here are some key rules to give you some context to the draft results:

  • Start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 4 Flex spots, maximum 1 Flex a QB
  • 22 roster spots so it is a fairly deep league, especially considering no K or DEF
  • QB scoring 6 points per TD, -4 point per INT – very punitive
  • reception scoring 0.5 points all positions, except 1.0 points for TE
  • first down scoring 0.5 points per rushing or receiving, except 1.0 points for TE

Pretty unique, isn’t it? So we can start 2 QB but the interceptions are killers. It is a lot of weekly starters. TE are added value with the double points for receptions and first downs relative to RB and WR. And, points for first downs!

First Down Scoring

Preparing for the first down stat scoring, which is not a very common fantasy points category, took some thought. I considered pulling 2017 player stats for first downs from my database and inputting them into Draft Buddy, but that wouldn’t be exceptionally helpful. Historical stats will match to players from last year, but not match to projections for the upcoming season which is what I use to help generate my cheatsheets.

Instead, I reviewed the first down stats to get a sense how impactful this category is on the scoring. It is fairly significant, mostly because it contributes primarily to RB, WR and TE scoring, but not QB unless they run a lot. Note, no points for a passing first down.

Sometimes you to use a little ingenuity to get your custom cheatsheet and draft tool (Draft Buddy) to give you the best results. In this case, I goosed up the reception points to account for receiving first downs, and gave some points for rushing attempts to account for rushing first downs.

For example, my analysis suggested a relationship of WR receiving first downs about 70% of reception totals, so I added 0.35 points per reception (to the existing 0.5). That is 0.5 per first down x 70% = 0.35. I did similar for the first down scoring for each type and position.

D-I-Y Average Draft Position Data

I have the 12th pick in the draft. Buddy Jim Day, a.k.a. @Fantasytaz, organized some pre-SFB8 draftmasters drafts to allow players some practice drafting, from which I compiled ADP you can find in the tweet below, and Google Sheets document.

In my practice draft I was able to draft Aaron Rodgers at 1.12, but as SFB8 got closer there seemed to be some buzz as to the QB values going up. Everyone wants to start two QB, and no one wants to be left with sketchy QB options as likely to throw as many interceptions as touchdowns each week. So, I was hopeful to get Rodgers again in my real draft, and he is the only QB I would consider at that spot.

Custom Cheatsheets

With the rules and scoring input, plus ADP, Draft Buddy kicked out custom cheatsheets for me. Presented below are the Top 12 at each position. These are based on the default projections in Draft Buddy, from FF Today, so I won’t necessarily draft exactly as shown on the cheatsheets.

In fact, I would not normally do that anyway, because I look at each draft as sort of a living, evolving experience, where opinions and strategies change as it progresses. Perhaps more on that another time. I will get into more specifics about some of my decisions made through the draft, but if you want a sneak peek at my picks, currently through four rounds, you can review the draft report.

I will post my copy of Draft Buddy for this draft to our download page for our Draft Buddy members to review if interested.

Draft Buddy Fantasy Football Projections Update

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David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson goes 1.02 in a new draftmasters draft I am participating in to practice for the upcoming Scott Fish Bowl. I have the 12th pick so there was no threat of DJ falling to me.

I sent a members newsletter yesterday, so in the interest of getting some new info to you folks, here is a quick hit post about the latest with respect to fantasy football Draft Buddy.

Projections Update

We did an update of the FF Today projections, depth charts and ADP in Draft Buddy dated today, June 28. As of now we are on a regular weekly update schedule, Thursdays through to and including Thursday August 30, plus one more after Labor Day weekend on September 3. As usual, we also do unscheduled updates as needed for significant player news (injury, suspension, etc.) that doesn’t fall nicely into the regular schedule.

Rankings Update

Last year saw the addition of a new feature for Draft Buddy in early August – alternate player rankings. These rankings import directly to the cheatsheets, as opposed to having custom cheatsheets created using the projections and scoring rules in Draft Buddy.

There are three sets of player rankings – FF Today, Dynasty League Football and Draft Buddy. My Draft Buddy rankings are not ready yet, which I explained in the member newsletter. The FFT and DLF rankings are usually updated at the same time as the projections, or the next day.

YouTube Videos

There are three new YouTube videos demonstrating Draft Buddy to start the year. One, a quick rules and scoring setup you can find in our initial kickoff post for the 2018 season. Two, a demo of MFL integration in my FanEx FAD Draft Recap, Part 2.

Considering we just did a projections update, here is a great spot for the third one. Here is how to do an update and refresh your cheatsheets in Draft Buddy:

Scott Fish Bowl Draftmasters Draft

I added a page to the website with information about fantasy football experts leagues that I participate in, including the pro-am event Scott Fish Bowl (SFB8). Division assignments are out and the draft for that is coming up soon, July 9. I am in the Cheers – Norm Peterson division and have the 12th pick in the draft.

Thanks for buddy Jim Day, better known as Fantasytaz in the fantasy football community, I am going to get some practice in an SFB8 format draftmasters draft from the 12 spot. The draft just opened and started today with the usual suspects, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott 1-2-3 to start. It is pick 1.08 right now so I am waiting, but you can follow along the draft report, and I will let you know how it goes.