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Fantasy Football Rankings—Quarterbacks, Updated

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With the free agency portion of the offseason nearly complete and the NFL rookie draft in the rear view mirror, it’s time to update my 2010 quarterback rankings.

The initial rankings noted the significant number of solid fantasy performances last season and there’s little reason to doubt a repeat in 2010. The biggest developments since my initial rankings, published in early-March, were as follows:

  • Ben Roethlisberger’s four to six game suspension,
  • Brandon Marshall traded to the Miami Dolphins,
  • Donovan McNabb traded to the Washington Redskins,
  • Jason Campbell subsequently being traded to the Oakland Raiders,
  • St. Louis Rams drafting Sam Bradford, and
  • Brett Favre’s recent announcement that he requires ankle surgery.

The only potential major issue to be resolved before training camp is where former Rams quarterback Marc Bulger signs. The Pittsburgh Steelers seemed like a logical destination but they picked up Byron Leftwich from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Teams currently thought to be interested in Bulger include the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, with the Cardinals an intriguing option given the question marks surrounding Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson.

Each player’s prior ranking is noted in parentheses after the current ranking.

1. (1) Aaron Rodgers, GB

Fantasy football’s top ranked QB from 2009 returns to the top spot for 2010. What propels him to the top of the projections is his rushing ability (304 yards and five TD last year).

2. (4) Drew Brees, NO

Moves from four to two. The Saints failed to take a running back in the draft and lost Mike Bell to the Eagles, so they figure to match their passing production from a year ago.

3. (2) Matt Schaub, HOU

Schaub led the NFL in passing yards last year but moves down a notch due to the drafting of running back Ben Tate and concerns about Owen Daniels production as he returns to full health.

4. (3) Peyton Manning, IND

He’s fourth because he usually gets a game or two off at the end of the season. Otherwise, he’d be my second ranked quarterback.

5. (6) Philip Rivers, SD

The drafting of Ryan Mathews causes Rivers’ projected points to drop but he moves up a notch due to the trade of Donovan McNabb, my original fifth ranked QB, to the Redskins.

6. (9) Tony Romo, DAL

Coming off a top 5 fantasy season and moves up two notches due to the addition of a new toy on offense in rookie wide receiver Dez Bryant.

7. (8) Jay Cutler, CHI

He’s going to have to live with the team’s current crop of wide receivers but the Mike Martz factor propels him to the seven spot.

8. (11) Tom Brady, NE

Brady moves back into the top ten with two others falling and the addition of Torry Holt as a decent veteran to play outside with Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Still, there are issues at tight end with an aging Alge Crumpler and a pair of rookies.

9. (10) Eli Manning, NYG

No fancy additions in the draft but Eli moves up a spot due to McNabb and Roethlisberger moving down (drops behind Brady). Nice upside at wide receiver in Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham and no additions to the depth chart at running back so there’s little reason to think they will run significantly more in 2010.

10. (NR) Kevin Kolb, PHI

Kolb passed for over 300 yards in both games he started last season and benefits from a solid supporting cast. He is a bit of a risk due to his lack of playing time but also possesses major upside and is a great option for dynasty leagues. Kolb will routinely be compared to Aaron Rodgers in his first year as a starter by fantasy pundits leading up to the start of the season.

11. (13) Joe Flacco, BAL

Anquan Boldin was a nice addition and Derrick Mason’s re-signing was icing on the cake but this is still a run first team with an aging Todd Heap at tight end.

12. (12) Brett Favre, MIN

Sixth ranked fantasy quarterback last year but hard to believe he can duplicate his performance coming off ankle surgery and being a year older. There’s a risk factor here that’s hard to ignore.

13. (18) Alex Smith, SF

Moves up courtesy of a pair of first round offensive lineman in Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. The 49ers’ offense should surprise in 2010 given the young talent on the roster.

14. (5) Donovan McNabb, WAS

McNabb was ranked fifth previously assuming he would benefit from having perhaps the best young group of offensive skill position players in the league in Philadelphia. There is a big drop off in the talent surrounding him in Washington.

15. (17) Matthew Stafford, DET

Nate Burleson adds a nice deep threat opposite Calvin Johnson and the addition of rookie first round pick Jahvid Best reduces the concerns about the running attack as Kevin Smith fights his way back from injury. Tony Scheffler’s acquisition also provides insurance in case Brandon Pettigrew isn’t 100% at the start of the season.

16. (15) Matt Ryan, ATL

The Falcons rely on the run and there were no fancy additions in the draft. Unfortunately for Ryan, he has to rely on Michael Jenkins once again as his second receiver opposite Roddy White.

17. (19) Vince Young, TEN

Played well last year but still has to be considered a boom or bust candidate. Damian Williams was added in the draft but the team figures to rely on an out of shape Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Justin Gage once again in 2010.

18. (16) David Garrard, JAC

The Jaguars ignored the wide receiver in the draft so Garrard has to hope one of Mike Thomas, Jarrett Dillard or Tiquan Underwood develops opposite Mike Walker. Not much upside here.

19. (26) Mark Sanchez, NYJ

Sanchez figures to improve on a decent rookie season and benefits from the team’s trade for Santonio Holmes as well as the team’s ability to bring in a veteran running back to replace Thomas Jones.

20. (25) Chad Henne, MIA

Henne moves up five spots courtesy of the Brandon Marshall trade. The Dolphins will run plenty in 2010 but Marshall will open it up for the team’s other wide receivers as well as provide a deep threat and plenty of yards after the catch.

21. (24) Matt Leinart, ARI

Leinart will likely be drafted before he should be. He loses Boldin and the offense figures to run much more this year than they did in 2009.

22. (20) Carson Palmer, CIN

The Bengals are going to run heavily again in 2010 and Palmer will almost certainly be drafted before he should be based on his name recognition and past fantasy achievements.

23. (14) Jason Campbell, OAK

It’s worth noting that the Raiders passing offense was significantly better last year when JaMarcus Russell was on the bench in favour of Bruce Gradkowski or Charlie Frye. Campbell is much better than either of those two. Unfortunately, there’s no number one wide receiver.

24. (23) Josh Freeman, TB

Freeman gains a pair of rookie wide receivers in Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams, so he’s looking decent for 2011. This year, not so much.

25. (7) Ben Roethlisberger, PIT

It was a career year for Big Ben in 2009 but he’s facing a four to six game suspension, loses Holmes and the Steelers figure to run more in 2010.

26. (22) Matt Cassel, KC

Unless scatback/slot receiver Dexter McCluster provides a major shot in the arm to the offense, Cassell is destined for fantasy irrelevance. There is little upside here.

27. (27) Matt Hasselbeck, SEA

Hasselbeck is likely keeping the position warm for Charlie Whitehurst.

28. (21) Kyle Orton, DEN

Orton was okay last year but loses Marshall and will likely have to rely on a pair of rookie wide receivers in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. It will come as no surprise if Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow gets a shot early in 2010.

29. (NR) Sam Bradford, STL

There is no competition in St. Louis but loads of question marks at wide receiver and tight end. There is some upside at receiver but it is difficult to forecast any breakouts in 2010.

30. (29) Matt Moore, CAR

Moore’s prospects got a lot less exciting due to Jimmy Clausen’s presence. Actually, I wasn’t that excited to begin with.

31. (NR) Jake Delhomme, CLE

He’s been horrible for the last season and a half and the Browns depth chart at wide receiver is absolutely scary.

32. (31) Trent Edwards, BUF

Two people in NFL management circles think Edwards is a starting caliber quarterback and they happen to the Bills head coach and general manager. Edwards wins the lottery on that one but he won’t win any fantasy games for you, that’s for sure.

33. (NR) Charlie Whitehurst, SEA

Whitehurst is probably the only player likely to enter the season as a backup but almost certainly guaranteed to be starting by midseason.

The following players dropped off the rankings from last time:

NR. (28) Brady Quinn, DEN
NR. (30) Marc Bulger, FA
NR. (32) Bruce Gradkowski, OAK
NR. (33) JaMarcus Russell, OAK
NR. (34) Seneca Wallace, CLE
NR. (35) A.J. Feeley, STL

Washington Redskins Team Needs—2010 NFL Draft Analysis

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With the recent acquisition of Donovan McNabb from the Eagles, the Redskins have solidified the quarterback position and increased their flexibility in the upcoming NFL rookie draft. And with that extra flexibility, it appears the team is now putting up various smokescreens in order to maximize their return from the draft picks they currently have.

Due to previous personnel moves, the Redskins currently have only four picks in the draft and there is plenty of speculation the team will attempt to make trades at or before the draft to increase their overall number of picks.

Their second round pick was moved to the Eagles as part of the McNabb trade, their sixth round pick was part of the Jason Taylor trade and the team used their 2010 third round pick to take defensive end Jeremy Jarmon in the third round of the 2009 supplemental draft.

The easiest avenue for the Redskins to pick up extra draft picks would be to trade Albert Haynesworth, who reportedly does not want to move to nose tackle in the team’s new 3-4 defensive alignment. However, few teams are likely to want to take on his massive contract.

Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan indicated the team was still considering taking a quarterback with the fourth overall selection in the draft, reasoning that some of the best quarterbacks in the league benefitted from being a backup during their first few years in the league.

Then came reports that the team was interested in acquiring former Cowboys left tackle Flozell Adams to shore up that position on the offensive line. Even for a Redskins team famed for its reputation for acquiring aging veterans, this potential free agent signing seems to be a stretch.

More likely, these moves are an attempt to create a smokescreen in an attempt to influence teams lower in the draft to increase their offers for the Redskins first round selection.

Numerous teams have needs at tackle and may be willing to move up to acquire the consensus top offensive tackle in the draft, Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung.

However, the real target of this smokescreen is likely the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a need at quarterback and at left tackle and may be willing to move up to acquire Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen.

If the Bills are convinced the Redskins are ready to sign Adams to play left tackle and take Clausen fourth overall, they would need to entice the Redskins to move the pick in order to get one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft.

Alternatively, if the Bills were convinced Clausen was going to the Redskins, they might be willing to increase a potential offer for Jason Campbell.

Either way, the Redskins would increase the number of picks they have in the draft as well as receive extra value in any potential Bills trade. Whether or not the Bills and rookie general manager Buddy Nix bite is anyone’s guess.

Here’s a look at the Redskins roster needs as the draft approaches.


Quarterback

With the McNabb trade, the free agent signing of Rex Grossman and second year player Colt Brennan on the roster, the team seems set at quarterback. Look for Campbell to be moved at the draft.


Running Back

Shanahan has a history of using lower round picks on the running back position but that may have to wait until the 2011 draft given the team’s overall needs. With aging veterans Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker occupying the depth chart, this position needs an upgrade but that may not happen unless they can move the fourth overall selection.


Receivers

Santana Moss returns as the team’s top wide receiver but he leaves something to be desired as a true number one receiver. With Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly entering their third years, the team is hopeful that one or both of them will finally start producing consistently. The team also has hopes for 2009 seventh round pick Marko Mitchell who has good size and speed. There isn’t a need at tight end with the duo of Chris Cooley and Fred Davis.


Offensive Line

With Chris Samuels’ retirement, the Redskins have a gaping hole at left tackle and figure to address that at some point in the first round of the draft assuming the Adams interest is a smokescreen.

Right tackle Stephon Heyor hasn’t impressed and could be challenged by Artis Hicks. Derrick Dockery returns at left guard but Randy Thomas was released creating a vacancy at right guard. Casey Rabach is solid at center but is entering his tenth year in the league.

The Redskins need to address two starting positions as well as the overall depth along the offensive line.


Defensive Line

The Redskins are moving to a 3-4 defense but don’t figure to have the difficulties in doing so that many teams have faced. The team has significant depth along the defensive line so it will be a surprise if any selections in the draft address this position.


Linebackers

With Andre Carter moving to outside linebacker to start alongside London Fletcher, Rocky McIntosh (who is expected to move inside) and emerging star Brian Orakpo, the Redskins figure to have a solid starting unit. There is little depth behind the starters other than H.B. Blades and converted defensive end Chris Wilson.


Defensive Backs

The Redskins are set at cornerback with DeAngelo Hall, Carlos Rogers, Philip Buchanon, Justin Tryon, Byron Westbrook and Kevin Barnes. However, the situation at safety is a little unsettled due to the struggles last season of LaRon Landry, Chris Horton and Reed Doughty. Kareem Moore could push for playing time there but the team would likely address the safety position in the draft.

Eagles Trade Donovan McNabb to Washington Redskins—Fantasy Impact

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With new head coach Mike Shanahan at the controls, the Washington Redskins and their flamboyant owner Daniel Snyder promised the team’s fans that the days of wild free agent spending and veteran acquisitions were over.

The new vision died a quick death with the team’s decision yesterday to trade for the Eagles’ Donovan McNabb. In order to acquire, the 33 year old quarterback, the Redskins shipped their 2010 second round pick (37th overall) and a conditional pick in 2011 that will be either their third or fourth round pick.

While the price is reasonable, the vision of the Redskins turning to the draft to reverse the team’s sagging fortunes over the past few years seems over. In that regard, the new administration is following the same philosophy as previous regimes did in Washington under Snyder – eschewing developing young players in favour of playing aging veterans in the hopes of a quick fix.

The Redskins have a solid defense, one that is perhaps worthy of contending for a championship. However, the offense is not yet ready to lead the team to a division title and it’s difficult to envision McNabb as the final piece of the puzzle that pushes them over the top in 2010. In fact, they will need to push the right buttons in free agency and the draft just to have a chance to make the playoffs in 2011.

The trade increases the likelihood of the team using the fourth overall selection in the draft to plug the hole that was created at left tackle with Chris Samuels’ retirement. It also increases the chances of incumbent starting quarterback Jason Campbell being moved before the draft, possibly to the quarterback needy Buffalo Bills.

The move is a bold one for an Eagles front office known for its conservative player personnel moves.

McNabb has been to the Super Bowl, five NFC Championship games, six Pro Bowls and holds almost all of the franchise’s career records. In trading him to a division rival, the team is signalling that they are confident that Kevin Kolb is ready to lead the franchise and that McNabb’s presence in Washington won’t push the Redskins into Super Bowl contender status.

The Eagles brain trust has a history of solid personnel moves so the odds of them being right on Kolb seem likely. However, that doesn’t lessen the shock that they were willing to trade a player of McNabb’s stature in order to clear a spot for him in the starting line-up.


Fantasy Impact

While McNabb was my fifth ranked fantasy quarterback a month ago, his fantasy stock plummets with a move to Washington. In Philadelphia, he would have been surrounded by outstanding young talent at the skill positions in wide receivers DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant as well as tight end Brent Celek and second-year running back LeSean McCoy, and protected by a solid offensive line.

While Redskins tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis are arguably only a notch below Celek, their wide receivers are no match for the Eagles threesome. In addition, their offensive line is in shambles and they have an aging group of running backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker that are well past their best before date.

McNabb becomes my 15th ranked fantasy quarterback and barring a breakout campaign from either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly, it’s difficult to conclude that he has much upside from here. His risk factor also increases considering he is an aging quarterback playing behind a leaky offensive line and he has managed to stay healthy for a full season only four times in his 11 year career.

Of the Redskins wide receivers, Santana Moss figures to benefit the most but he will be 31 on opening day and has topped 1,000 yards once in the last four seasons. Plus, his small stature reduces his usefulness in the red zone.

He moves from WR5 status to being a WR4 in 10 team leagues and a marginal starter in 12 team leagues. I have him ranked 35th overall at wide receiver.

The odds of Thomas and Kelly breaking out in their third year in the league increases but predicting that is a stretch. They move from being waiver wire candidates in most leagues to potentially being worth a spot at the end of your fantasy bench depending on their play in the preseason. Keep your eye on this position battle during training camp.

Given Celek’s production over the past couple of years and Shanahan’s frequent use of the tight end position, Cooley and Davis figure to benefit from McNabb’s arrival but splitting the production is never a recipe for fantasy success at tight end.

As for the Redskins running backs, it’s best to avoid them altogether.

With the Eagles, Kolb obviously benefits the most from this move. He played reasonably well in a pair of starts last year against New Orleans and Kansas City, topping 300 yards in each game and throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions. He completed almost 65% of his passes in those games, displaying solid accuracy. Of course, the Saints were playing soft coverage because they had a big lead for most of the game and the Chiefs secondary was amongst the worst in the league.

Nonetheless, Kolb hasn’t played enough in the league to provide an accurate gauge of his fantasy prospects for the 2010 season. Fantasy owners are left to decide whether or not they trust the Eagles front office in installing him as the team’s starting quarterback on a roster that has the ability to challenge for the division title next season.

He will benefit from a solid supporting cast but young quarterbacks can be expected to throw more interceptions than veterans so expect a few more picks from Kolb than McNabb has thrown in recent seasons. Kolb figures to pass for between 3,500 and 3,800 yards with 20 plus touchdowns.

He becomes my 12th ranked fantasy quarterback but with upside and is an excellent option in dynasty leagues. Move him a couple of notches lower in leagues that penalize interceptions.

At wide receiver, Jackson, Maclin and Avant figure to move down slightly but not significantly. Jackson moves from sixth to eighth in the wide receiver rankings while Maclin moves from 25th to 30th. Avant remains worthy of owning in deep leagues and is a solid waiver wire candidate in shallower leagues if Jackson or Maclin is injured.

It’s worth noting that Celek caught 16 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown in Kolb’s two starts last season so there is plenty of reason for optimism with regards to his fantasy prospects.

However, in moving him from my second ranked tight end to fourth, I’m choosing to ignore that rather important statistic in putting Celek behind Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Dallas Clark. He remains an excellent player to own in dynasty leagues and could benefit from this move but he slides as his projected number of touchdowns is reduced with Kolb at the controls.

The Eagles running back tandem of McCoy and Mike Bell doesn’t see a material change in their fantasy prospects as a result of this trade.