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Kansas City Chiefs Team Report

August 18, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Yards and receptions were down last year for Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles, but it was due to Andy Reid’s play calling, not an apparent decline from Charles. He’s in contention to be the #1 RB and player off the board this season.

QB Alex Smith

Traded to the Chiefs prior to the 2013 season, Smith finished his first season in Kansas City as the 15th ranked fantasy quarterback and followed that up by finishing as the 19th ranked quarterback last season due in part to a historically bad season by the team’s group of wide receivers, as they failed to catch a single touchdown pass. Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery are out, having been replaced by Jeremy Maclin and rookie 3rd round pick Chris Conley. In addition, Travis Kelce is expected to build upon a solid season in 2014 and the team is high on 2nd year player Albert Wilson. Jamaal Charles is one of the league’s elite pass catchers out of the backfield, a fact somewhat lost on head coach Andy Reid last season as Charles caught 30 fewer passes in 2014 (40) than in 2013 (70). Of course, Alex Smith is Alex Smith, a quarterback whose risk free approach results in few turnovers and few big plays and whose career highs are 3,313 passing yards, 23 touchdown passes, 432 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. And that didn’t all happen in one season. Smith is a low upside, lower tier QB2.

RB Jamaal Charles

After topping 1,700 total yards in 2012 and 1,900 total yards in 2013, Charles had a somewhat disappointing 2014 season, gaining just 1,324 total yards, although he did find the end zone a healthy 14 times, the 2nd best total of his career. While Charles missed one game due to an injury and barely played in Week 2, injuries weren’t the reason for his decline in production. Andy Reid’s play calling was. An outstanding receiver, Charles saw his targets drop from 104 to just 59 and his receptions declined from a career-high 70 in 2013 to just 40. It’s not like Reid was saving him for the running game since his carries dropped from 259 to just 206, his lowest total when healthy for 15-16 games since the 2009 season. And just to be clear, efficiency wasn’t an issue since Charles averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 7.3 yards per reception in a Chiefs offense that was devoid of playmakers outside of Charles and tight end Travis Kelce. Since we view Reid as a smart guy and with wide receiver Jeremy Maclin having been added to help take some of the pressure off Charles, we are banking on him returning to his 2012-2013 production this year. Look for another 1,700 yard season with double digit touchdowns, putting Charles in contention for being the 1st running back off the board in your draft.

RB Knile Davis

On the one hand, Davis has proven to be a productive fill in for Jamaal Charles when Charles is injured or nicked up. On the other hand, Charles is so effective when healthy that the Chiefs rarely make Davis a big part of the game plan. The 2013 3rd round pick strung together a solid three game run from Weeks 2-4 last season, gaining 353 total yards with three touchdowns. Alas, he totaled 77 touches in those three games but just 73 touches in his 12 other games, which translates to 6.1 touches per game. And it’s hard to be a viable fantasy option with such little work. Davis rates as a must-have handcuff for Charles owners but we wouldn’t recommend him as a solid flex option in leagues that employ that position.

RB De’Anthony Thomas

Taken in the 4th round of last year’s draft, ostensibly to replace the disappointing Dexter McCluster, the 5’8″, 174 pound Thomas was practically invisible during his rookie season, gaining 113 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries while catching 23 passes for 156 yards. With no future at the running back position, the Chiefs wisely moved him to wide receiver in the offseason. While the Chiefs lack a proven starting option opposite Jeremy Maclin, and Thomas could emerge as an opening day starter provided he beats out rookie 3rd round pick Chris Conley and diminutive Albert Wilson, we’re hardly going to endorse a player moving to a new position for your fantasy squad. Deep leaguers may want to monitor his progress as a potential waiver wire option.

WR Jeremy Maclin

Prior to the 2014 season, Maclin bet big on himself, choosing to accept a one-year contract from the Eagles rather than sign a more lucrative long-term deal. He won that bet as he posted a career year with 85 receptions for 1,318 yards and ten touchdowns. It paid off in the form of a five year, $55-million offer from the Chiefs. While the money is nice, don’t expect Maclin’s fantasy production to be as nice as it was in 2014 with the Eagles. Head coach Andy Reid might be a creative offensive game planner but he has rarely ever showered a wide receiver with a high number of targets, and quarterback Alex Smith refuses to throw the ball into heavy traffic. The odds of Maclin reaching the top 10 as a fantasy wide receiver in 2015 are pretty much nil, regardless of the fact the Chiefs depth chart at wide receiver is barren. Remember that both running back Jamaal Charles and tight end Travis Kelce are expected to receive a healthy dose of targets this season. It won’t surprise if Charles, Kelce and Maclin have similar reception totals. If that happens, Maclin will be hard pressed to emerge as anything more than a lower tier WR2 during his first year in Kansas City.

WR Albert Wilson

An undrafted rookie free agent coming out of Georgia State last season, Wilson earned a somewhat significant role in the Chiefs offense during the latter part of the year. Playing outside as well as out of the slot, the 5’9″, 200 pound Wilson caught 12 of his 24 targets during the final four games of the season for 209 yards. While we can hardly endorse Wilson as anything approaching a breakout candidate, there is a decent chance that he will earn a starting role in 2015, at least to open the season. With competition from rookie Chris Conley and converted running back De’Anthony Thomas, Wilson, who possessed outstanding speed, may get a starting nod in Week 1 but with Alex Smith at quarterback, he isn’t expected to have any fantasy appeal.

WR Chris Conley

The Chiefs chose to revamp their wide receiver depth chart in the offseason, leading to the addition of Chris Conley in the 3rd round of this year’s draft. The 6’2″, 213 pound Georgia product possesses a high ceiling but, by almost all accounts, he isn’t going to be ready to contribute in a major way during his rookie season. And with conservative Alex Smith at quarterback having a solid trio of receiving options in Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Jamaal Charles ahead of Conley in the pecking order, we aren’t expecting him to contribute much as a rookie. He rates as a mid-tier dynasty prospect.

TE Travis Kelce

After missing all of his rookie season in 2013 after undergoing microfracture surgery, Kelce finished as the 8th ranked fantasy tight end last season. The former 3rd round pick displayed his outstanding athletic ability in finishing the season with 67 receptions for 862 yards and five touchdowns despite being targeted just 87 times, as he lost significant playing time to Anthony Fasano due to Fasano’s superior blocking ability. In 2015, Fasano is gone and so is wide receiver Dwayne Bowe but the Chiefs added Jeremy Maclin in free agency and acquired Chris Conley in the 3rd round of the draft to supplement the wide receiver position. Even with the added talent at wide receiver, we expect Kelce to see his targets and production increase by a healthy margin, in part based on his production over the final four games of last season when he was targeted 30 times, catching 23 passes for 284 yards and a touchdown. Kelce rates as the 3rd best option at tight end this season and he has an outside chance to supplant Jimmy Graham as the 2nd best fantasy option at the position behind Rob Gronkowski.

Also see: Kansas City Chiefs IDP Team Report · Seattle Seahawks Team Report

Fantasy Analysis: WR Jeremy Maclin Leaves Philadelphia Eagles Nest, Joins Kansas City Chiefs

March 17, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Plagued by a group of wide receivers that failed to catch a single touchdown pass in 2014, the Kansas City Chiefs continued the process of upgrading the position by agreeing to a contract with Jeremy Maclin worth a reported $11-million per year.

In Kansas City, Maclin will be reunited with former Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid, who led the Eagles during the first four years of Maclin’s career and was primarily responsible for the team selecting him in the 1st round of the 2009 NFL Draft. The acquisition of Maclin continues the Chiefs makeover at wide receiver following the release of Donnie Avery and A.J. Jenkins. Kansas City is expected to release Dwayne Bowe in the coming days rather than commit to his 2015 salary of $11-million.

After missing all of the 2013 season due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament, Maclin signed a one-year contract with the Eagles for the 2014 season and wound up finishing the season with career highs in receptions (85) and yards (1,318) while matching his previous career high in touchdowns (10).

With Maclin leaving, it will mark the second consecutive season that the team’s leading wide receiver has left the team despite coming off a career year. DeSean Jackson was released following the 2013 season despite setting career highs in receptions and receiving yards while matching his career high in touchdowns.

Fantasy Analysis

Prior to the 2014 season, Maclin bet big on himself, choosing to accept a one-year, $5.5-million contract from the Eagles rather than sign a more lucrative long-term deal. He won that bet as his solid production resulted in the contract offer from Kansas City that is expected to be for five years.

While he chose to accept more money from the Chiefs rather than return to Philadelphia, you could certainly make the case that there are overwhelming odds that he will not match his 2014 production this season in Kansas City. In fact, you could make the argument that there aren’t many teams that Maclin would have been worse off joining in terms of his fantasy prospects.

While Reid is a creative offensive game planner, he has rarely ever showered a wide receiver with a high number of targets, and quarterback Alex Smith refuses to throw the ball into heavy traffic. The odds of Maclin reaching the top 10 as a fantasy wide receiver in 2015 are pretty much nil, regardless of the fact the Chiefs depth chart at wide receiver is barren.

Remember that both running back Jamaal Charles and tight end Travis Kelce are expected to receive a healthy dose of targets next season. It won’t surprise if Charles, Kelce and Maclin have similar reception totals.

If that happens, Maclin will be hard pressed to emerge as anything more than a mid to lower tier WR2 during his first year in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Player Projections, Rankings and Commentary

July 30, 2014 By Dave Leave a Comment

Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) runs for a 31 yard touchdown in the 1st quarter of the Indianapolis Colts 23-7 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. December 22, 2013; Photographer: Jeff Moffett/Icon Sportswire

When it comes to the Kansas City Chiefs and fantasy impact, they’ve got Jamaal Charles and a whole lot of next to nothing. However, Charles is our #1 RB and overall player. He’s a pretty big deal. Photo: Icon Sportswire

Player	Tier · Rank	Passing	Rushing	Receiving	FPts
QB A. Smith	5 · 21st	300-500-3,275 22 TD 12 INT	38-200 2 TD	–	283.8
RB J. Charles	1 · 1st	–	250-1,275 11 TD	60-575 4 TD	275.0
RB K. Davis	7 · 46th	–	100-400 3 TD	20-180 0 TD	76.0
RB D. Thomas	NR	–	6-20 0 TD	0-00 0 TD	2.0
WR D. Bowe	7 · 38th	–	–	70-825 6 TD	118.5
WR A. Jenkins	NR	–	–	15-200 1 TD	26.0
WR D. Avery	NR	–	–	45-625 5 TD	92.5
WR J. Hemingway	NR	–	–	10-120 0 TD	12.0
TE T. Kelce	5 · 24th	–	–	40-470 4 TD	71.0
TE A. Fasano	NR	–	–	20-175 2 TD	29.5

Data as of July 25 | Current Cheatsheets | Current Projections

NR = Not ranked

QB Alex Smith

Traded to the Chiefs prior to the 2013 season, Smith put together the finest season of his nine-year career, throwing for 3,313 yards with 23 touchdowns, both career highs, while tossing just eight interceptions in 509 attempts. He also ran for a career-high 432 yards, scoring once. Despite all of that, Smith still only ranked as the 16th best fantasy quarterback. Now you know his upside, although, to be fair, we should point out that he only played in 15 games. Had he started in Week 17, he likely would have finished as the 11th ranked quarterback. However, we’re not banking on a huge improvement in 2014 since the Chiefs will have the misfortune of having to face four solid defenses in the NFC West. Not helping matters is that the Chiefs did precious little to upgrade a group of wide receivers that features Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery and little else to go along with no solid, proven pass catching tight end. Did we mention they like to hand the ball off a fair amount to some dude named Jamaal Charles? While Smith rates as a safe QB2, he offers little upside.

RB Jamaal Charles

After finishing last season as the top ranked fantasy running back, Charles will attempt to repeat that performance in 2014. Not only did he post 1,980 total yards with 19 touchdowns for a whopping 312 fantasy points, he was remarkably consistent in doing so, hitting double digit fantasy points in 13 of 15 games (he and most of the rest of the Kansas City starters sat out Week 17). His lowest point total of the year came in Week 11 when he posted 72 total yards. If you are looking for red flags in 2014, we can give you a couple. First off, the Chiefs offensive line will feature three new starters with left tackle Branden Albert and guards Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz having departed in free agency. Secondly, Charles’ 329 touches last season increase his injury risk profile although he has remained fairly healthy during his career other than his injury shortened 2011 campaign. However, with only the marginally productive Knile Davis behind him at running back and a group of wide receivers and tight ends that ranks amongst the league’s worst, Charles should be in line for another workhorse season. That spells opportunity and we know what he can produce when given plenty of touches. That makes Charles our number one ranked fantasy running back in 2014.

RB Knile Davis

Taken in the 3rd round of last year’s NFL Draft, Davis had the misfortune of opening his career behind a player who produced close to 2,000 total yards in Jamaal Charles. Davis totaled just 70 rushes on the season, gaining 242 yards and four touchdowns while averaging just 3.5 yards per carry. The Arkansas product has the talent to handle a full-time workload and possesses blazing speed, making him a must have handcuff for Charles owners. Subbing in for Charles in Week 17 when the Chiefs rested their starters and in the team’s Divisional Playoffs loss when he was injured, Davis totaled 186 yards while finding the end zone four times. If you get Charles, don’t wait too long to snag Davis.

RB De’Anthony Thomas

With Dexter McCluster having signed with the Tennessee Titans as a free agent after four non-descript seasons as a Chief, Kansas City was in the market for a gadget guy and used a 4th round pick to acquire Thomas. The 5’8”, 174 pound Oregon product is ill-suited to handle anything close to a full-time workload, making him a total non-factor for fantasy purposes. Unless your league starts a returner, Thomas has no right being on your fantasy squad.

WR Dwayne Bowe

Tell me you didn’t see this coming. After signing a five-year, $56-million contract with a $15-million signing bonus prior to the 2013 season, Bowe promptly put together the worst non-injury shortened season of his seven year career. With play it safe Alex Smith at quarterback, Bowe hauled in just 54.3% of his targets (57 of 105), gaining 673 yards and five touchdowns. While Bowe is a talented receiver and just 29 years of age, he is also one of the league’s most confounding players. However, with his fantasy value at an all-time low and Kansas City sporting one of the league’s least talented crop of wide receivers, this is year where he can be had for cheap. Given his upside, solid fit in Andy Reid’s offense and low expected ADP, Bowe is worth gambling on as a low end WR3.

WR Donnie Avery

Playing in the Colts pass heavy offense in 2012, Avery put together a career year with 60 receptions for 781 yards and three touchdowns, earning himself a three year, $8.5-million contract and position in the starting line up with the Chiefs. He promptly spit the bit, hauling in just 40 of his 72 passes for 596 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While Avery can put together the occasional highlight reel play due to his blazing speed, he is almost mind-numbingly inconsistent and has never gained a reputation as a receiver that his quarterback can trust. With Alex Smith, that’s not a good thing. Avery rates as a low end WR5 and is generally best kept on the waiver wire. The truth is that given his size, he just isn’t a great fit in head coach Andy Reid’s offense.

WR Junior Hemingway

Taken in the 7th round of last year’s NFL Draft, Hemingway had a marginally productive rookie campaign, catching 13 passes for 125 yards and a pair of scores. The 6’1”, 225 pound Michigan product will battle A.J. Jenkins and a host of former undrafted free agents for a backup spot with the Chiefs in 2014. While we don’t like his chances of having any fantasy value this season, it’s worth noting that there are major holes in the Chiefs depth chart at wide receiver with Dwayne Bowe and Donnie Avery rating as one of the league’s worst duo of starters at the position.

WR A.J. Jenkins

Taken by the 49ers in the 1st round of the 2012 draft, Jenkins was tossed overboard by San Francisco after just one year in a swap of failed high draft picks with Jonathan Baldwin going the other way. Jenkins did little in his first year in Kansas City to suggest the 49ers were wrong in jettisoning him until he posted a respectable three reception, 67 yard performance in the Chiefs final regular season game when they rested their starters. With Dwayne Bowe coming off a horrendous season and Donnie Avery not exactly a confidence inspiring starter, there is a chance that Jenkins could get some significant playing time in 2014. Or he could get axed before opening day. It’s a situation worth monitoring.

TE Travis Kelce

While Anthony Fasano may be listed as the starting tight end for the Chiefs, the only player on their roster capable of having any fantasy value at the position is Travis Kelce. Taken in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL Draft, Kelce missed all of his rookie season after undergoing microfracture surgery. A productive receiver in college, Kelce also has the requisite size to develop into a sturdy blocker and the team’s long term future at the position. However, he will need to come back successfully from a knee injury for that to happen and we don’t expect him to emerge as a solid fantasy contributor in 2014, although it’s worth noting that dink and dunk artist Alex Smith runs the team’s offense and that’s not a bad thing for a tight end. Kelce rates as a potential waiver wire add and a middling dynasty prospect.

TE Anthony Fasano

Fasano emerged as the Chiefs starting tight end last season and he hauled in 23 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns. His receiving yardage has dropped every season since he posted a career high 528 yards in 2010 and he has averaged under nine yards per reception in each of the last two years. With a stud like Jamaal Charles at running back, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that Fasano’s playing time rests almost entirely on his ability as a blocker. There’s no fantasy appeal here, folks.