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Top Prospects Making an Impact – Hellickson, Chapman, Freeman

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On the DraftBuddy.com 2011 Consensus Top Prospects List there are thirteen prospects that stand out from the crowd. These thirteen are all players expected to spend some time with their big league club this season and five are likely to make a significant fantasy impact. Let’s take a closer examination at this baker’s dozen and their anticipated role in the Majors.

Bryce Harper, OF, WAS

This guy has superstar written all over him. He’s so good, Washington sent him to the Arizona Fall League as his first taste of professional baseball. He will start 2011 in Single-A, but he’ll make all the stops on his way to Washington next summer. Now the team has to figure out where to move Jayson Werth, because right field belongs to Harper from the day he lands. If you are in a keeper league, this is an “all-in” situation.

Mike Trout, OF, LAA

Here is another guy who looks like a future superstar. He has all of the tools needed to become a special player, and eventual fantasy stud. Trout just needs experience under his belt. He’s another “all-in” guy for keeper leagues.

Jesus Montero, C, NYY

There’s a good chance the New York Yankees keep Montero as the backup catcher to start the season with extra at-bats as the designated hitter here and there. Think Mike Piazza with this kid both in ability with a bat and behind the plate. That being said, Montero might find himself at a different position than catcher unless his defense improves and improves consistently.

Domonic Brown, OF, PHI

Brown had a path cleared for him by the departure of Werth and was poised to roam right field in Philadelphia for the next dozen years starting Opening Day 2011 until a broken hamate derailed the start of his season. He’ll eventually be a 30-homer guy with good speed.

Jeremy Hellickson, P, TB

Hellickson won Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2010 and even made 10 appearances for Tampa Bay last season, going 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA. He’ll start the season in the Rays’ rotation but will likely find himself at the front end of the rotation in a year or two.

Julio Teheran, P, ATL

Long and lean (6’2″, 150 lbs), Teheran is just as good as Hellickson, but four years younger. The Braves have no reason to bring him up until mid-season, but he’ll likely be the go-to guy if a starting pitcher is needed after Super Two concerns have passed. He has a higher ceiling than Hellickson, but not the experience.

Aroldis Chapman, P, CIN

The Cuban fireballer who throws 105 MPH looks to be headed for a gig in the Cincinnati Reds bullpen, but Chapman is legit. He’ll do well wherever the Reds put him this year, but it looks like his innings are being limited due to his young age and lack of consistent control. His future is in the rotation. His fastball has been compared to Nolan Ryan’s and his slider to Randy Johnson’s – Yowza!

Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC

Hosmer can do it all with the bat, hitting for power and average while showing a strong grasp of the strikezone. He is being tried in left field as the Royals have a backlog at first base, but his bat will be elite anywhere he ends up.

Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC

He grew out of the shortstop position, but his bat is still the real thing. He has very little range, but he will probably stick at third base. He can hit for power and doesn’t strike out a lot, but he isn’t very patient. He’ll be up in June as soon as he clears the Super Two date.

Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA

There is no question that Ackley will man Seattle’s keystone position for the next decade, but his bat will play in a very Dustin Pedroia-like way. Ackley is an outfielder who was converted to first base in college because of an elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery, and now he is being moved to second base for similar concerns about his arm. He is the best pure hitter to come out of college in quite some time and he dominated the AFL in 2010. If the position change doesn’t work out, a move to centerfield could result, but his bat will be fine wherever his glove settles.

Desmond Jennings, OF, TB

Jennings is a five-tool athlete who will be Tampa’s centerfielder of the future. The only question is when that time will be. With the signing of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez each to one-year contracts, it is likely that B.J. Upton will be moved over to left field to make room for Jennings in 2012. He has speed, power, and a contact bat.

Wil Myers, OF, KC

The third Royals player on our list is a converted catcher, who will get more at-bats if he isn’t getting beaten up behind the plate, similar to Harper who started out as a catcher. He has dominated each of the two levels he’s played at, both as one of the youngest in the league. His arm and speed should translate to right field well, and his bat is definitely the kind of thing you see from a star in the corner outfield.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

Freeman will get the most playing time of this group in the Majors in 2011. The Braves have handed him the starting job and there is no pressure on him to perform with the bat early on. Freeman will likely struggle early, but he tore up the International League last season as one of its’ youngest players, so long-term success looks good. He’s not a typical first base power hitter. Freeman is more in the Mark Grace mold sporting a high average and doubles power.

Fantasy Baseball Consensus Top Prospects List

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I love this exercise every year, compiling my consensus top baseball prospects list, a ranking of the next best players in baseball, so I can stay a step ahead of the game in my deep keeper fantasy baseball leagues.

This year I used 15 publicly available “top 100” prospect lists to form the basis of my list, up from ten last year. Players had to be named on at least seven of the lists to make the final cut. Players were given 100 points for a 1st place listing, 99 points for second, 98 for third and on and on down to 1 point for a selection as number 100.

Each list that formed the consensus is identified in the key below. Each player’s score for that list is indicated and their average is listed last. Scores are based on the number of lists they appear. I realize this simple system has the potential to skew the results of those picked on fewer lists, but overall this simple system presents a good snapshot of the guys you should target for your rosters.

Top 100 Prospects Lists
AOL AOL Fanhouse MN MiLBNews
BA Baseball America MP MiLB.Prospects.Blogspot.com
BP Baseball Prospectus PT Pine Tar and Pocket Protectors
BB Bullpen Banter PJ Prospect Junkies
DL Deep Leagues PP Project Prospect
FB Fantasy Baseball 101 SB Scouting Book
JM Jonathan Mayo TPA Top Prospect Alert
KL Keith Law

 

Rank Player AOL BA BP BB DL FB JM KL MN MP PT PJ PP SB TPA Avg
1 Bryce Harper, OF, WAS 94 100 100 98 100 100 98 99 99 98 100 100 100 100 100 99.07
2 Mike Trout, OF, LAA 100 99 99 100 99 99 100 100 95 99 99 99 99 94 99 98.67
3 Jesus Montero, C, NYY 97 98 98 97 94 87 92 97 88 100 97 98 98 99 95 95.67
4 Domonic Brown, OF, PHI 95 97 97 99 98 98 97 98 93 86 98 91 93 93 98 95.40
6 Jeremy Hellickson, P, TB 96 96 92 95 97 97 99 87 100 82 96 96 82 96 96 93.80
5 Julio Teheran, P, ATL 99 95 96 92 95 90 91 95 96 95 93 97 79 95 97 93.67
7 Aroldis Chapman, P, CIN 93 94 95 93 96 96 95 86 97 91 92 94 78 98 94 92.80
8 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC 98 93 89 94 91 83 93 96 87 94 94 88 96 70 93 90.60
9 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC 83 92 94 86 92 92 94 78 98 96 85 95 85 88 88 89.73
11 Dustin Ackley, OF, SEA 92 89 76 91 93 91 96 94 60 89 95 90 87 89 89 88.07
12 Desmond Jennings, OF, TB 87 79 83 87 90 95 90 81 92 73 91 92 84 97 75 86.40
13 Wil Myers, C, KC 79 91 88 96 86 78 85 93 68 93 90 93 95 64 92 86.07
10 Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL 80 84 81 71 83 93 84 58 90 97 89 89 89 92 78 83.87
16 Matt Moore, P, TB 76 86 91 90 85 77 74 85 89 87 78 85 87 81 84 83.67
17 Jameson Taillon, P, PIT 77 90 93 83 84 84 83 71 83 88 86 86 88 58 90 82.93
19 Shelby Miller, P, STL 82 88 86 89 72 71 81 92 76 70 82 83 92 63 91 81.20
14 Michael Pineda, P, SEA 89 85 77 88 89 85 88 80 94 31 84 87 45 83 78.93
15 Manny Machado, SS, BAL 70 87 85 80 78 86 77 75 77 85 80 82 74 46 86 77.87
18 Kyle Drabek, P, TOR 85 72 87 77 87 94 89 88 78 8 88 78 66 83 87 77.80
22 Martin Perez, P, TEX 84 77 68 85 67 66 78 83 78 77 79 70 91 71 76.71
23 Brandon Belt, 1B, SF 81 78 79 79 88 82 75 84 91 38 87 76 94 52 64 76.53
25 Zach Britton, P, BAL 91 73 84 82 88 82 90 82 5 75 84 83 66 82 76.21
26 Jacob Turner, P, DET 75 80 78 84 77 76 86 79 86 66 72 80 46 60 85 75.33
27 Jarrod Parker, P, ARZ 78 68 59 81 81 64 72 76 59 76 76 81 90 78 76 74.33
20 Mike Montgomery, P, KC 86 82 80 72 73 72 87 73 80 62 72 47 68 74 73.43
21 Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, CLE 61 76 61 82 79 74 65 62 74 90 50 75 76 71 73 71.27
24 Mike Minor, P, ATL 73 64 75 75 80 89 80 40 84 55 73 65 71 85 54 70.87
28 Manny Banuelos, P, NYY 88 60 74 69 57 57 66 89 79 69 59 36 67 65 66.79
29 Brett Lawrie, 2B, TOR 56 61 44 47 68 67 73 64 81 92 70 69 84 53 66.36
30 Aaron Hicks, OF, MIN 62 56 50 70 61 60 62 91 46 61 81 77 58 86 63 65.60
31 Jonathan Singleton, OF, PHI 90 62 38 62 61 71 74 81 54 68 64 61 65.50
32 John Lamb, P, KC 46 83 90 76 64 59 67 60 35 63 40 42 81 87 77 64.67
33 Kyle Gibson, P, MIN 66 67 46 61 71 70 61 69 71 44 69 70 40 75 67 63.13
34 Chris Sale, P, CWS 74 81 82 73 12 76 34 85 33 60 74 26 82 80 62.29
35 Jordan Lyles, P, HOU 63 59 42 39 74 73 70 59 57 61 61 62 81 61.62
36 Tyler Matzek, P, COL 71 69 67 42 54 53 68 77 63 54 71 37 67 69 61.57
37 Casey Kelly, P, SD 72 70 53 78 24 23 79 82 62 30 74 58 65 80 70 61.33
38 Gary Sanchez, C, NYY 67 71 72 59 37 36 69 33 75 84 39 62 28 79 57.93
39 Randall Delgado, P, ATL 49 66 43 64 50 55 51 48 71 68 73 80 32 57.69
40 Brett Jackson, OF, CHC 40 63 54 67 76 75 55 53 83 55 63 42 19 55 57.14
41 Chris Archer, P, TB 54 74 31 57 55 52 54 61 52 66 60 60 56.33
42 Nick Franklin, SS, SEA 35 48 57 60 70 65 63 48 66 74 67 44 57 15 56 55.00
43 Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN 52 29 48 65 56 70 65 22 79 35 77 52 54.17
44 Wilin Rosario, C, COL 47 52 65 55 66 24 60 32 51 23 64 91 66 53.54
45 Jose Iglesias, SS, BOS 65 49 64 49 38 37 59 56 37 57 46 72 48 62 52.79
46 Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN 59 41 70 38 63 45 41 72 50 77 65 52 3 56 59 52.73
47 Jenrry Mejia, P, NYM 28 57 56 62 69 63 41 59 18 42 49.50
48 Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE 34 47 73 68 51 50 45 40 47 54 73 8 48 49.08
49 Grant Green, SS, OAK 43 38 52 46 75 69 43 42 13 53 49 57 42 47.85
50 Stetson Allie, P, PIT 22 62 43 73 75 12 43 47.14
51 Simon Castro, P, SD 30 43 40 50 60 54 37 32 45 67 61 45 47.00
52 Jean Segura, 2B, LAA 69 44 66 48 31 30 66 58 50 35 47 17 46.75
53 Dee Gordon, SS, LAD 31 75 17 33 56 56 57 31 67 30 37 29 72 45.46
54 Yonder Alonso, 1B, CIN 32 28 22 46 39 52 36 47 12 83 56 86 90 6 45.36
55 Jarrod Cosart, P, PHI 64 31 29 59 58 50 67 43 24 26 45.10
56 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, SD 51 26 32 30 29 63 56 48 46 47 63 49 45.00
57 Derek Norris, C, WSH 48 37 60 74 42 41 68 28 23 63 32 51 16 36 44.21
58 Dellin Betances, P, NYY 57 58 69 30 20 19 48 28 54 27 45 68 43.58
59 Jaff Decker, OF, SD 4 10 55 69 43 64 18 75 54 43.56
60 Chris Carter, OF, OAK 10 10 71 51 65 81 21 43 56 22 55 15 79 28 43.36
61 Drew Pomeranz, P, CLE 20 40 58 66 44 43 41 70 34 71 43 2 39 30 42.93
62 Alex White, P, CLE 5 54 30 26 53 48 36 48 51 55 49 58 42.75
63 Jurickson Profar, SS, TEX 68 27 23 54 32 31 44 20 55 36 49 41 50 51 41.50
64 Hank Conger, C, LAA 27 16 20 40 62 39 57 68 28 28 27 73 40.42
65 J.P. Arencibia, C, TOR 44 63 53 19 58 17 24 39.71
66 Billy Hamilton, SS, CIN 42 51 55 43 42 50 32 18 53 1 39 38.73
67 Zack Wheeler, P, SF 55 46 49 31 13 12 65 2 37 66 56 44 24 38.46
68 Tony Sanchez, C, PIT 58 55 8 36 21 20 38 41 44 31 52 35 36.58
69 Zack Cox, 3B, STL 18 39 47 49 29 26 33 48 26 47 36.20
70 Anthony Ranaudo, P, BOS 60 34 1 35 1 47 64 65 34 40 29 9 44 35.62
71 Danny Duffy, P, KC 39 33 34 58 39 38 3 45 51 13 35.30
72 Tanner Scheppers, P, TEX 29 17 22 24 48 46 58 25 33 55 20 34.27
73 Yasmani Grandal, C, CIN 15 28 34 33 42 51 35 39 43 21 34.10
74 Ben Revere, OF, MIN 17 39 30 39 38 14 61 34.00
75 Trey McNutt, P, CHC 50 53 33 41 36 35 35 20 10 14 38 33.18
76 Matt Dominguez, 3B, FLA 33 20 21 53 10 9 47 46 80 52 30 34 6 22 33.07
77 Wilmer Flores, SS, NYM 37 42 3 56 11 10 43 53 56 34 1 17 57 32.31
78 Jake Odorizzi, P, KC 6 32 24 34 23 22 64 37 57 30 25 32.18
79 Travis d’Arnaud, C, TOR 65 19 5 4 44 19 26 60 46 32.00
80 Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL 11 21 9 64 42 33 33 41 31.75
81 Brody Colvin, P, PHI 19 45 41 25 35 34 25 14 34 30.22
82 Arodys Vizcaino, P, ATL 38 8 51 23 15 14 54 39 36 7 34 29 29.00
83 Danny Espinosa, 2B, WAS 21 35 9 45 28 27 25 27.14
84 Christian Friedrich, P, COL 22 51 14 21 11 59 7 26.43
85 Hak-Ju Lee, SS, TB 53 9 14 52 11 41 17 2 24.88
86 Jake McGee, P, TB 30 28 52 26 25 4 17 9 23.88
87 Tyler Skaggs, P, KC 24 19 18 7 6 49 23 5 38 31 40 23.64
88 Trayvon Robinson, OF, LAD 2 32 41 40 29 4 9 22.43
89 Matt Harvey, P, NYY 8 26 7 18 52 15 6 53 12 21.89
90 Christian Colon, SS, KC 12 50 13 5 19 18 49 15 23 10 18 21.09
91 Craig Kimbrel, P, ATL 14 15 45 27 17 16 26 21 22 5 20.80
92 Michael Choice, OF, OAK 7 27 18 49 47 10 2 5 20.63