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MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Tuesday August 21

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Toronto Blue Jays are facing a RHP at home (Dylan Bundy BAL who has faced 567 batters). On FanDuel the Blue Jays are currently putting up 2.27 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Dylan Bundy is currently allowing 121% more PPA than the MLB average (2.118 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.76 (2.27 x 121%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.118 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Blue Jays RHP at home Dylan Bundy BAL 567 2.27 x 121% 2.76 +0.49 1.72 x 121% 2.08 +0.35
Athletics RHP at home Ariel Jurado TEX 113 2.00 x 135% 2.70 +0.70 1.53 x 133% 2.03 +0.51
Red Sox RHP at home Shane Bieber CLE 294 2.50 x 106% 2.65 +0.15 1.90 x 108% 2.05 +0.16
Brewers RHP at home Sal Romano CIN 549 2.22 x 115% 2.55 +0.33 1.69 x 114% 1.92 +0.23
Cubs RHP on road Jordan Zimmermann DET 376 2.15 x 112% 2.40 +0.25 1.65 x 113% 1.86 +0.21
Yankees RHP on road Pablo Lopez MIA 194 2.18 x 110% 2.38 +0.21 1.64 x 108% 1.78 +0.13
Braves RHP on road Ivan Nova PIT 559 2.16 x 108% 2.34 +0.18 1.65 x 110% 1.81 +0.16
Astros RHP on road Mike Leake SEA 642 2.33 x 100% 2.34 +0.01 1.76 x 102% 1.80 +0.04
Rockies LHP at home Robbie Erlin SDP 292 2.57 x 89% 2.30 -0.27 1.97 x 91% 1.80 -0.17
Nationals RHP at home Vince Velasquez PHI 505 2.28 x 99% 2.26 -0.02 1.73 x 98% 1.69 -0.04
Orioles RHP on road Sam Gaviglio TOR 390 1.94 x 114% 2.20 +0.27 1.49 x 114% 1.70 +0.21
Mets RHP at home Chris Stratton SFG 445 1.81 x 121% 2.19 +0.39 1.39 x 121% 1.67 +0.29
Rays RHP at home Glenn Sparkman KCR 91 1.99 x 110% 2.18 +0.20 1.53 x 109% 1.67 +0.14
Pirates RHP at home Kevin Gausman ATL 610 2.09 x 104% 2.16 +0.07 1.60 x 105% 1.68 +0.09
Padres LHP on road Tyler Anderson COL 585 2.01 x 107% 2.14 +0.13 1.55 x 105% 1.63 +0.08
Diamondbacks RHP at home Felix Pena LAA 215 2.10 x 102% 2.14 +0.04 1.59 x 101% 1.61 +0.02
Indians RHP on road Nathan Eovaldi BOS 317 2.13 x 97% 2.08 -0.06 1.62 x 98% 1.60 -0.03
Twins RHP on road Michael Kopech CHW – 2.04 x 100% 2.04 +0.00 1.55 x 100% 1.55 +0.00
Reds RHP on road Junior Guerra MIL 535 2.03 x 100% 2.02 -0.01 1.55 x 100% 1.55 -0.01
Tigers RHP at home Kyle Hendricks CHC 603 2.02 x 99% 1.99 -0.03 1.55 x 100% 1.55 +0.00
Giants LHP on road Steven Matz NYM 481 1.80 x 111% 2.00 +0.20 1.39 x 110% 1.53 +0.14
White Sox RHP at home Jose Berrios MIN 635 2.14 x 91% 1.94 -0.20 1.65 x 91% 1.50 -0.15
Phillies RHP on road Tanner Roark WSN 636 1.99 x 97% 1.92 -0.06 1.52 x 97% 1.48 -0.04
Mariners RHP at home Brad Peacock HOU 218 2.02 x 92% 1.85 -0.16 1.56 x 93% 1.45 -0.11
Marlins RHP at home Masahiro Tanaka NYY 462 1.80 x 103% 1.85 +0.05 1.40 x 102% 1.44 +0.03
Rangers LHP on road Brett Anderson OAK 230 1.74 x 104% 1.80 +0.06 1.34 x 106% 1.42 +0.08
Dodgers RHP at home Daniel Poncedeleon STL 66 2.27 x 73% 1.66 -0.62 1.72 x 71% 1.23 -0.50
Angels LHP on road Patrick Corbin ARI 618 1.95 x 79% 1.55 -0.40 1.50 x 80% 1.21 -0.30
Cardinals LHP on road Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD 136 2.40 x 64% 1.54 -0.86 1.81 x 66% 1.19 -0.62
Royals LHP on road Blake Snell TBR 522 1.70 x 74% 1.26 -0.44 1.32 x 75% 0.98 -0.33

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Monday August 20

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Milwaukee Brewers are facing a RHP at home (Homer Bailey CIN who has faced 395 batters). On FanDuel the Brewers are currently putting up 2.21 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP at home and Homer Bailey is currently allowing 129% more PPA than the MLB average (2.119 PPA). Their modified PPA is 2.85 (2.21 x 129%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.119 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Brewers RHP at home Homer Bailey CIN 395 2.21 x 129% 2.85 +0.65 1.68 x 129% 2.16 +0.48
Twins RHP at home Lucas Giolito CHW 591 2.37 x 120% 2.84 +0.48 1.79 x 116% 2.08 +0.29
Astros RHP on road Felix Hernandez SEA 576 2.35 x 119% 2.81 +0.46 1.77 x 117% 2.07 +0.30
Blue Jays RHP at home Andrew Cashner BAL 559 2.26 x 113% 2.55 +0.29 1.72 x 112% 1.93 +0.21
Athletics RHP at home Bartolo Colon TEX 570 1.96 x 118% 2.31 +0.35 1.50 x 119% 1.78 +0.28
Braves RHP on road Chris Archer PIT 481 2.17 x 106% 2.29 +0.12 1.66 x 106% 1.75 +0.10
Orioles RHP on road Marco Estrada TOR 470 1.94 x 116% 2.24 +0.30 1.49 x 115% 1.71 +0.22
Pirates RHP at home Kevin Gausman ATL 610 2.10 x 103% 2.17 +0.07 1.61 x 105% 1.69 +0.09
Cardinals LHP on road Alex Wood LAD 533 2.40 x 89% 2.12 -0.27 1.80 x 89% 1.61 -0.19
White Sox LHP on road Stephen Gonsalves MIN – 2.10 x 100% 2.10 +0.00 1.62 x 100% 1.62 +0.00
Reds RHP on road Chase Anderson MIL 529 2.03 x 101% 2.05 +0.02 1.56 x 100% 1.56 +0.01
Red Sox RHP at home Corey Kluber CLE 646 2.51 x 81% 2.03 -0.48 1.90 x 83% 1.58 -0.32
Rays RHP at home Jorge Lopez KCR 109 2.00 x 101% 2.02 +0.02 1.54 x 100% 1.54 +0.01
Indians RHP on road Rick Porcello BOS 636 2.12 x 94% 2.01 -0.12 1.62 x 95% 1.53 -0.09
Rangers RHP on road Mike Fiers OAK 545 2.04 x 96% 1.97 -0.07 1.55 x 99% 1.54 -0.01
Dodgers LHP at home Austin Gomber STL 158 1.96 x 90% 1.76 -0.20 1.49 x 89% 1.33 -0.16
Royals TBD on road TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.73 x 100% 1.73 +0.00 1.34 x 100% 1.34 +0.00
Mets LHP at home Derek Holland SFG 548 1.63 x 101% 1.65 +0.01 1.26 x 101% 1.26 +0.01
Giants RHP on road Zack Wheeler NYM 581 1.81 x 87% 1.57 -0.24 1.41 x 87% 1.23 -0.18
Mariners RHP at home Gerrit Cole HOU 627 1.99 x 77% 1.54 -0.45 1.54 x 77% 1.19 -0.35

MLB Daily Fantasy Baseball Analysis for Sunday August 19

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My approach to identifying lineups worthy of stacking evolved from fantasy football where I’d look at the opposing defenses fantasy points allowed to help identify positive matchups. For DFS baseball I look at a team’s DFS points per plate appearance (ppa) and compare to the opposing pitcher’s DFS ppa. A “bad” pitcher could lead to an increase in production from the hitters and conversely, a “good” pitcher could lead to a decrease in production.

How to Read the Charts
The Arizona Diamondbacks are facing a RHP on road (Brett Kennedy SDP who has faced 47 batters). On FanDuel the Diamondbacks are currently putting up 2.09 points per plate appearance (PPA) vs. RHP on road and Brett Kennedy is currently allowing 186% more PPA than the MLB average (2.118 PPA). Their modified PPA is 3.87 (2.09 x 186%) and the difference is simply their modified PPA minus their situational PPA. Rinse & repeat for DraftKings.

It is important to note that due to the volatility of stolen bases, I do not include them when calculating ppa.

Main Slate

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.118 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Diamondbacks RHP on road Brett Kennedy SDP 47 2.09 x 186% 3.87 +1.78 1.58 x 188% 2.97 +1.39
Indians RHP at home Andrew Cashner BAL 559 2.57 x 113% 2.91 +0.33 1.93 x 112% 2.17 +0.24
Dodgers RHP on road Felix Hernandez SEA 576 2.36 x 119% 2.82 +0.46 1.78 x 117% 2.09 +0.30
Angels RHP on road Bartolo Colon TEX 570 2.26 x 118% 2.66 +0.40 1.72 x 119% 2.04 +0.32
Nationals RHP at home Pablo Lopez MIA 194 2.29 x 110% 2.50 +0.22 1.73 x 108% 1.87 +0.14
Yankees LHP at home Ryan Borucki TOR 228 2.43 x 97% 2.37 -0.06 1.84 x 99% 1.82 -0.02
Reds LHP at home Andrew Suarez SFG 484 2.24 x 106% 2.36 +0.13 1.69 x 107% 1.81 +0.12
Braves RHP at home German Marquez COL 585 2.19 x 106% 2.32 +0.13 1.66 x 106% 1.76 +0.10
Rangers RHP at home Jaime Barria LAA 384 2.35 x 95% 2.24 -0.11 1.76 x 97% 1.71 -0.05
Pirates LHP at home Jose Quintana CHC 537 2.04 x 107% 2.18 +0.14 1.57 x 106% 1.66 +0.09
Astros LHP on road Sean Manaea OAK 613 2.43 x 87% 2.11 -0.32 1.85 x 88% 1.63 -0.22
Giants RHP on road Luis Castillo CIN 538 1.86 x 112% 2.08 +0.23 1.45 x 111% 1.61 +0.16
Royals RHP on road Reynaldo Lopez CHW 608 1.95 x 106% 2.07 +0.11 1.51 x 105% 1.58 +0.07
Cardinals RHP at home Chase Anderson MIL 529 2.00 x 101% 2.02 +0.02 1.53 x 100% 1.54 +0.01
Blue Jays LHP on road J.A. Happ NYY 547 2.13 x 95% 2.03 -0.10 1.62 x 94% 1.52 -0.10
Cubs RHP on road Jameson Taillon PIT 583 2.20 x 90% 1.99 -0.21 1.68 x 92% 1.55 -0.13
Marlins LHP on road Gio Gonzalez WSN 565 1.95 x 101% 1.98 +0.03 1.50 x 101% 1.52 +0.02
Red Sox TBD at home TBD/Bullpen TBR – 1.94 x 100% 1.94 +0.00 1.49 x 100% 1.49 +0.00
White Sox RHP at home Heath Fillmyer KCR 178 2.10 x 92% 1.93 -0.17 1.62 x 91% 1.47 -0.14
Brewers RHP on road John Gant STL 315 2.03 x 93% 1.90 -0.13 1.57 x 91% 1.43 -0.14
Tigers RHP on road Jake Odorizzi MIN 550 1.69 x 108% 1.83 +0.14 1.31 x 107% 1.41 +0.10
Orioles RHP on road Mike Clevinger CLE 622 1.97 x 91% 1.79 -0.18 1.52 x 92% 1.39 -0.12
Twins TBD at home TBD/Bullpen DET – 1.80 x 100% 1.80 +0.00 1.38 x 100% 1.38 +0.00
Rockies RHP on road Anibal Sanchez ATL 370 2.02 x 87% 1.76 -0.26 1.53 x 87% 1.34 -0.19
Padres RHP at home Zack Greinke ARI 625 1.85 x 85% 1.57 -0.27 1.42 x 88% 1.24 -0.18
Athletics RHP at home Justin Verlander HOU 643 1.96 x 79% 1.55 -0.40 1.49 x 82% 1.22 -0.28
Mariners LHP at home Clayton Kershaw LAD 436 1.87 x 77% 1.44 -0.43 1.45 x 80% 1.16 -0.29
Rays LHP on road Chris Sale BOS 566 2.03 x 64% 1.29 -0.74 1.57 x 65% 1.02 -0.55

Night Game

Lineup Situation Opposing Pitcher Batters Faced FanDuel DraftKings
FanDuel MLB Avg is 2.118 DraftKings MLB Avg is 1.616
PPA x % Mod PPA Dif PPA x % Mod PPA Dif
Phillies LHP at home Jason Vargas NYM 250 2.34 x 146% 3.41 +1.07 1.75 x 144% 2.51 +0.76
Mets RHP on road Nick Pivetta PHI 526 2.37 x 102% 2.42 +0.05 1.79 x 102% 1.83 +0.04