derrick ward Archives | DraftBuddy.com

Just like every other year, there are a handful of starting running back positions with an uncertain outcome, and picking the right side could make or break your fantasy season. For the most part, these players are worth having but not worth reaching too early for given their uncertain playing time. Therefore, the value will be found when these players start to fall in your league’s draft or if the auction cost is low.

There are two bigger name players in this group – Thomas Jones of the Jets and Derrick Ward of the Bucs. The Jets starting quarterback will likely be rookie Mark Sanchez after Brett Favre’s departure, plus the team lost starting wide receiver Laveraneus Coles, both moves that will hurt Jones’ fantasy potential. Ward moved over to the Bucs from the Giants and is supposedly in a battle with Earnest Graham for the starting position.

New York Jets – Thomas Jones vs. Leon Washington vs. Shonn Greene

We’re putting this in here as a battle but that’s mainly because most people seem to think it’s one. We don’t. Jones is coming off a huge season, he’s a workout warrior and motivated to earn a new contract and avoid being given the pink slip after this season. Sure, his fantasy situation isn’t as favourable as last season when he finished as the league’s 5th ranked fantasy running back but he’s unlikely to lose his spot to the diminutive Washington or Greene, the team’s 3rd round pick in 2009. Jones won’t likely be a top ten back in 2009 but should be a decent low end second running back with mild upside. The risk is the Jets season going south and Jones losing playing time to Greene.

Arizona — Tim Hightower vs. Chris “Beanie” Wells

Not satisfied with Hightower’s performance as a starter as a rookie in 2008 when he averaged just 2.8 yards per carry but still managed to score 10 TD, the Cardinals spent a 1st round pick on Chris Wells to provide competition and depth at the position. Reports out of Arizona indicate that Hightower is having a solid training camp while the rookie Wells is in limbo courtesy of a right ankle injury. Questions regarding Wells’ durability helped cause his draft stock to fall and missing time will certainly impact his ability to supplant Hightower. Rookie running backs generally struggle with their pass blocking assignments and that is very relevant in Arizona where starting quarterback Kurt Warner is perhaps the least mobile player at his position in the league. Basically, Hightower played well enough last year to deserve another chance unless Wells had an outstanding training camp and that can’t happen when he’s in the trainer’s room. Look for Hightower to start on opening day and for Wells to have to earn the starting nod as the season progresses. Either way, this looks to be a timeshare.

Tampa Bay — Earnest Graham vs. Derrick Ward

After three years in the league, Graham came virtually out of nowhere to post 898 yards rushing, 10 TD and 324 yards receiving in 2007 despite starting only ten games. Unfortunately, he followed that up with a lacklustre campaign in 2008 with 737 combined yards and four TD while missing six games due to injury. The verdict out of Tampa was that Graham was not a full time back and hence the decision to sign Ward away from the Giants.

Ward is coming off a stellar campaign in New York, where he topped 1,000 rushing yards as Brandon Jacobs’ backup while also notching 384 receiving yards, good enough for the 23rd fantasy ranking at the position. Critics point to the fact that Ward managed just two TD and benefited playing behind a solid Giants offensive line. However, he did manage 5.6 yards per carry and 9.8 yards per reception and there is little doubting that Jacobs is one of the better, if not the best, short yardage backs in the league. In addition, the new Bucs regime brought in their guy, he was hugely productive in 2008 and he is shiftier and provides more big play potential than the incumbent. The only question here is whether Graham gets the goal line carries.

Baltimore — Willis McGahee vs. Le’Ron McClain vs. Ray Rice

The veteran malcontent goes up against the out of nowhere fullback and the diminutive second year player for the starting running back position on the team that figures to run the ball more than any other team in the league in 2009. This has the makings of an extremely fascinating fantasy football issue heading into this season as owners determine which back to hedge their bets on. Unfortunately, what’s more likely to occur is that all three will put up decent production but ultimately disappoint their fantasy owners because of consistency issues.

Rice figures to have the most upside given that he is currently carrying starter status and is the best receiving option amongst the three players. McClain will focus more on a fullback role in 2009 but could be the short yardage and closer running back, particularly if the team keeps Jason Cook as a backup fullback. McGahee, who is coming off offseason knee surgery, will likely spell Rice and get significant carries in a backup role. In a nutshell, it is likely best to avoid all three unless they fall to the lower rounds in your league’s draft. If you must have one, bet on Rice.

Denver — LaMont Jordan vs. Correll Buckhalter vs. Knowshon Moreno

Another fantasy carousel figures to happen in Denver where new head coach Josh McDaniels brought over Jordan with him from the Patriots, signed Buckhalter from the Eagles and drafted Moreno with the 12th pick in the draft. McDaniels also signed J.J. Arrington but the team released him after determining his knee wasn’t healthy enough to allow him to contribute in 2009. The team also has fullback Peyton Hillis, who averaged 14.4 points per game over his last six games in 2008.

Moreno clearly has the most upside of the bunch and figures to be starting by midseason, given the new regime’s investment in him. Look for Jordan to start on opening day before being relegated to a relief role, Buckhalter to be utilized on passing downs and Hillis to move to more of a traditional fullback role. Moreno’s the guy to have but don’t reach for him.

New England — Sammy Morris vs. Fred Taylor vs. Laurence Maroney

The Patriots backfield is a fantasy mess, consisting of talented but injury prone players (Morris, Maroney), a solid receiving option (Kevin Faulk), a low rent 2nd year player who scored five TD in just 74 carries as a rookie (BenJarvus Green-Ellis) and a veteran newcomer with a history of putting up 1,000 yards rushing (Taylor). Look for Morris or Taylor to earn the starting job out of camp with Maroney either earning time as a backup or being moved to another team. Green-Ellis will be in tough to make the roster and Faulk will definitely have a few big games catching the ball out of the backfield. This is another situation to avoid but the players with the most potential are Taylor and Maroney with Taylor getting the nod here.

In our last post, we defined a fantasy football bust as a top ranked player who is sinking your team due to their poor performance. If you’ve saddled yourself with a bust, it’s difficult to remain competitive let alone challenge for your league’s championship.

However, obviously one way to counter your bust is to find yourself a sleeper (or better yet more than one). Every year there are players picked at the end of a draft or claimed on the waiver wire who put up surprise performances and reward their fantasy owner. Plus, there are players taken in the third, fourth or later round, or who go for reasonable auction prices but put up monster performances and while they may not be sleepers in the truest sense are key to their owner’s success.

Here are ten fantasy football sleepers or players who will outperform their average draft position for the upcoming season.

QB Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos – If Jay Cutler headlines our fantasy busts at quarterback, then it figures that Orton should be one of our sleepers at the position in 2009. The oft-criticized Orton put up nearly 3,000 yards passing with 18 touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in 15 games with the run oriented Bears in 2008. Now he moves onto Denver where he will lead Josh McDaniels Patriots inspired offense with superior receiving talent at wide receiver and tight end as well as a solid stable of running backs. Orton is as talented as McDaniels’ protégé Matt Cassel and, while he won’t match Cutler’s statistics from 2008, he figures to be a solid backup fantasy quarterback with the potential to sneak into starter status.

QB Matt Schaub, Houston Texans – Schaub needs one thing to establish himself as a fantasy football stud – a healthy season. Last year, he was the 7th ranked fantasy quarterback in points per game but started just 11 games. With the Texans returning all eleven starters from an offense that ranked 3rd in yards per game in 2008, Schaub has the potential to ascent to elite status provided he can stay upright for 16 games.

RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins – Brown has had an up and down career and seems to always be on the cusp of something bigger than he’s ever actually delivered. Early in his career, he seemed to be a tad out of shape. In 2007, he was headed to the Pro Bowl before a knee injury ended his season in week 7. Last year, he was in a time share with Ricky Williams. In 2009, he’s in a contract year for a competitive Dolphins team that will rely heavily on the run game and added center Jake Grove in free agency. Throw in reports that he is in outstanding shape and top ten status seems quite likely.

RB Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Ward isn’t really big, he isn’t really fast and he’s not always fluid catching the ball. However, he turned that into 1,025 yards rushing on just 182 carries and 384 yard receiving as a backup with the Giants in 2008. This year, he moves to Tampa Bay where he will almost assuredly start ahead of, but be in a platoon situation with, Earnest Graham, running behind a young, powerful offensive line. Last year’s 23rd ranked running back isn’t getting his due in the preseason rankings but he has the potential to be a solid number two running back at a reasonable cost.

RB Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions – Smith might not be half as good as he thinks he is but while the rest of your league is scared stiff to take a running back from the 0-16 Lions, you can score a solid backup running back with the potential to be a decent number two. Smith had 975 yards rushing in his rookie season despite getting 10 or fewer carries in six games and starting just 12 games. He also caught 39 passes despite having just 54 targets. The team has added Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt at wide receiver and the massive Brandon Pettigrew at tight end and cannot possibly be as porous on defense as they were in 2008. Add it all up and Smith figures to get more opportunities in 2009 and expect him to make the most of them.

RB Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice put up inconsistent numbers as a rookie in 2008 but that was more a by-product of how the coaching staff used him than how he actually performed. The Ravens have moved LeRon McClain to fullback to fill the void left by the departure of Lorenzo Neal and Willis McGahee has been relegated to backup status due to the combination of the team’s disappointment in his practice habits, his performance in 2008 and offseason knee surgery. While Rice may not see goal line duties, he figures to put up solid numbers and could be especially valuable in PPR leagues given his 33 receptions in limited opportunities last season.

WR Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers – It’s been a long time since fantasy football enthusiasts could look at a 49ers wide receiver and get excited. The dry spell might be over with Crabtree now on the scene. His draft stock seemed to decline dramatically as a result of a slight stress fracture in his left foot. Perhaps it’s more important to focus on his 41 touchdowns in just 26 games in college, his outstanding playmaking ability, his ability to make catches in traffic and the fact he’s motivated to prove he should have been taken higher than the 10th pick in the draft and ahead of fellow wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey. Not to mention that head coach Mike Singletary berated him recently for practicising BEFORE team doctors said he should.

WR Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams – Avery put up some solid games as a rookie in 2008 but was inconsistent and made numerous errors in his route running. More of a deep threat, Avery managed to record only 54 receptions on 108 targets, hardly awe inspiring numbers. However, the talent is clearly there and so is the opportunity with the departure of Torry Holt. The only issue is whether the light comes on for Avery this year or in 2010. Avery isn’t a candidate to hit the top ten in 2009 but expect him to establish himself as a low-end number two receiver with more upside in the years to come.

WR Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers – More of a super sleeper than breakout candidate, Floyd will likely enter the season as a backup in the high-powered Chargers offense. However, Chris Chambers will be 31 years old when the season starts and is coming off the worst season of his career. Buster Davis, a 2007 1st round pick, is fast approaching bust status. Meanwhile, Floyd caught 27 of 37 targets for 465 yards and four touchdowns in limited opportunities in 2008. At 6’5″ and 225 pounds, Floyd is a big target who has developed a knack for getting open. While he’s not a candidate to bust out in 2009, he’s worth a flyer in deeper leagues and worth monitoring as a potential waiver wire candidate in other leagues.

TE Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears – Olsen has put up solid, if not spectacular numbers over the last two seasons splitting duties with Desmond Clark since the Bears took him with the 31st picked in the 2007 draft. With Jay Cutler on board at quarterback, Clark clearly slipping to backup status and the team having a weak number one wide receiver in Devin Hester and a major question at the other wide receiver position, Olsen figures to get many opportunities to shine in 2009. He has the ability to beat linebackers on short patterns and split the seam on unsuspecting safeties on deep patterns. Look for Olsen to ascend to the tier of tight ends just below Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten and Dallas Clark.

Position Battles – Running Back

2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers