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AL East News Roundup Prepping For My NFBC Draft

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Sunday morning: my daughter is occupied with Plants vs. Zombies (great game), my son keeps jumping back and forth between a Toy Story puzzle and some Garfield cartoon, and my wife is at the gym. Time for some prep work for my National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) satellite league draft that is scheduled for Monday night. Uh oh, puzzle complete. This may be some short lived “me time”.

With a helping hand from the MLB.com At Bat 2011 app, let’s flip through the news by team tab and get an update on recent news for some key team situations and fantasy relevant players. Hey, every Spring Training game I’ve watched promotes the At Bat app, so I might as well follow suit, but do I seriously need to buy a separate iPhone and iPad version? Great but expensive app. Going with just the iPhone version for now.

I’ll start with the AL East.

  • Baltimore Orioles 1B Derrek Lee “feels great” after his first Spring Training action Saturday. Lee has been nursing a sore wrist which developed he believes from pushing his rehab from off-season thumb surgery too hard. He indicated he felt no discomfort in the wrist at all.

    Rick has been pumping Lee as an undervalued late option since his first projections back in early February, which didn’t exactly jive with Lee not swinging a bat all this time, but it appears Rick could be justified with his stance. Lee is clearly motivated for a strong season and the change of scenery, not to mention batting in a lineup with Vladimir Guerrero and Mark Reynolds, should help.

  • Staying with the Orioles, 2B Brian Roberts is expected to play Sunday. He’s had back spasms keeping him out of action. Gee, where have I heard this before? Was it about 365 days ago? If anything, maybe this news, and assuming no further setbacks after today, will prompt someone to draft Roberts a little earlier. I won’t be drafting him, that is for sure. Full disclosure: Yes, I drafted him last year, and I do hold a grudge.
  • Orioles SP Justin Duchscherer hopes to be healthy enough to be on the active roster, in the starting rotation, for Opening Day. He’s dealing with a sore hip, even though an MRA (not an MRI, but whatever) showed nothing new. Add him to the Do Not Draft list.
  • Not even reviewing his Spring Training stats – okay, 1 ER, 7 H, 1 BB in 4-2/3 Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates – I’m not getting a good vibe on Boston Red Sox starter Josh Beckett. People slushing off last season as just an off year may be overpaying for this guy based on name recognition and the team he plays for. The Sox dropped him to the fourth spot in the rotation so he has an easier matchup in his first game (Cleveland Indians), to try to get him off to a good start, which I think is telling.
  • News headline one re: Tim Wakefield: “Wakefield trying to earn spot on roster”. Headline two: “Wakefield serves up four homers in loss”. Not really fantasy relevant but the knuckleballer will likely be jettisoned from our Red Sox depth chart fairly soon.
  • New York Yankees named A.J. Burnett their number two starter, behind CC Sabathia and ahead of Phil Hughes. They are still undecided on the fourth and fifth spots. Ivan Nova seems likely. Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia can exercise options and become free agents this month, and Garcia will not accept an assignment to Triple-A. I just keep thinking how down Scott is on Burnett – which I agree with – and this staff looks like a mess three out of every five starts.
  • Brett Gardner to hit leadoff, bumping down Derek Jeter to second? Yankees manager Joe Girardi is considering it, and tried it last Thursday against the Tampa Bay Rays. Makes sense to me.
  • Dan Johnson or Casey Kotchman at first base for the Rays? Manager Joe Maddon tipped his hand and said Johnson has the inside track to the job. Johnson posted great power numbers between the Rays and Triple-A Durham in 2010, with 37 homers and 118 RBI in 138 games, 40 of those for the Rays (7 HR, 23 RBI). He only hit .198 with the Big League club last year though. Rick has him projected for .239. Still, with that power potential he looks like a name to keep an eye on.
  • Rays starting rotation: David Price, James Shields, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann and Jeremy Hellickson. Also, Jake McGee isn’t ready for the regular job but should get some opportunities to close out games this year. With us not expecting much success from Kyle Farnsworth closing, McGee could be a late round, deep league target.
  • Similarly with the Toronto Blue Jays, Frank Francisco is expected to officially be named the closer, but Jon Rauch will likely save some games. Francisco has only made two appearances this spring due to soreness in his right pectoral muscle. The Jays expect Francisco to be ready for Opening Day. For clarity, the situations are similar in that both teams will give their second guys chances to close, but a higher upside McGee taking over for a weaker closer Farnsworth is a more appealing situation to take a chance on for fantasy drafting, than a lower upside Rauch taking over for a better pitcher in Francisco.
  • 2B Aaron Hill is expected to make his Grapefruit League debut Tuesday. He’s been out with soreness in his right quad muscle. Some fantasy folks like Hill as a sleeper set to bounce back after a poor 2010 season on the heels of a career ’09. I’ll let someone else pay his going sleeper price.
  • The Jays probable regular batting order will have Jose Bautista third, Adam Lind fourth. This would drop Travis Snider to sixth or seventh as manager John Farrell tries to split up his left handed hitters. Farrell said Lind appears to have warmed up to hitting clean-up more than he has in the past.
  • Looking for late draft steals from Scott Podsednik? He might not make the club as he continues to suffer from plantar fasciitis, and was recently put in a cast to immobilize his foot. The cast should be on for 10 days, but there is no timetable for his return.

2011 Fantasy Baseball All Sleeper Team – Does Alex Rodriguez Count?

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Some players don’t get the love they deserve from the fantasy baseball community. Like Rodney Dangerfield, they just don’t get any respect. Our job is to figure out the players where that lack of respect is justified, and more importantly, what players in fact deserve our respect and attention on draft day, even though they are overlooked (or undervalued) by the majority of fantasy players.

People drafting at Mock Draft Central (MDC) are using that website for a variety of purposes, including trying out new draft strategies, so the results certainly aren’t something to take to the bank. However, Average Draft Position of each player does give a fairly accurate view of where players will be drafted in similar leagues.

I project the following players will perform a lot better than is currently being forecast by the users at MDC. Here is my 2011 All Sleeper Team:

Russell Martin, C, NYY – Martin has been in a downward spiral ever since his breakthrough season of 2007. Was that season an anomaly? Playing in the New York Yankees lineup will help us figure that out and you should enjoy the results. Benefitting from great coverage in the batting order, Martin should see some real pitches to hit and opportunities to build his resume. Fantasy players may be downgrading Martin due to concerns of up and coming prospect Jesus Montero taking over, but he is still raw behind the plate so expect it to be Martin as the primary backstop all season. Martin is a contract year, to boot.

Derrek Lee, 1B, BAL – Lee has something to prove after hitting .260 last year with under 20 homers (still hit 19) for the first time in three seasons. He required surgery on his right thumb in November to repair a torn ligament, likely the cause of last season’s decline. He will get that opportunity in a much improved Baltimore lineup and at the cozy Camden Yards, a good situation for Lee to show he’s not washed up. Don’t count on any steals now he is in his mid-30s, but the average and power should return. Lee’s value is currently deflated in fantasy drafts as he’s been sidelined in Spring Training with wrist tendinitis brought on by aggressively rehabbing his surgically repaired thumb. Lee expects to be ready Opening Day.

Aaron Hill, 2B, TOR – Hill had a breakthrough season in 2009 with career numbers across the board on a massive 682 at-bats. Fantasy owners who invested for similar results in 2010 were sadly disappointed, as Hill struggled most of the year due in part to a hamstring injury. His batting average was as smooth as an alligator’s backside (.205) and his home run total also took a bit of a dip, although he still popped 26 homers (down from 36 in ’09). Look for numbers closer to his 2009 campaign this season. If he’s still sitting on the draft board when your turn comes up in the 10th round, take the plunge.

Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY – How can the biggest name on the biggest stage be considered a sleeper? Maybe undervalued is a better word here, but A-Rod has failed to meet expectations each of the past three seasons. Admittedly, those were high expectations, but fantasy owners are a fickle bunch and are always looking for upside in their picks. At age 35, A-Rod doesn’t have the upside he once did, and some feel injury and missed time are in the cards for him annually at this point. He’s sliding in drafts to the late first round or even into the middle of the second round. He’s still going to provide very good stats, this year at a discounted price.

Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, CLE – This guy will never be confused with A-Rod. He’s a very solid hitter, but provides no power. He will contribute in the other four offensive categories though, and that kind of production from a shortstop being drafted in the middle rounds is a bargain that you don’t want to pass up.

Jose Tabata, OF, PIT – Here is a player that can really help with speed at a relatively low price, and doesn’t hurt your average. His power is a little light, and playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates is a knock to anyone’s projected RBI and Run totals, but you could certainly do worse with a draft pick in the early teen rounds. Tabata is on a few sleeper lists, so watch as he could be climbing draft boards.

Shane Victorino, OF, PHI and Raul Ibanez, OF, PHI – These Philadelphia guys are just not as well respected as the guys they hit behind in the Philly batting order. Victorino and Ibanez won’t hit as many homers or drive in as many runs as a healthy Chase Utley or Ryan Howard, but they will provide much better value. Victorino’s stolen bases make him more desirable between the two. You can acquire him in the latter part of the first ten rounds and Ibanez in the middle rounds of your draft.

Jim Thome, DH, MIN – Even though Thome will be platooning in the designated hitter role, he will still do enough damage to warrant a spot on your team. He’s being drafted very late because of the lack of position for the big lefty, but 20+ homers for a guy being picked at the end of the draft is a great deal.

Jake Peavy, RHP, CWS and Erik Bedard, LHP, SEA – These two pitchers lost most of the last two seasons to arms injuries. They combined for just 48 starts over that time and fantasy players have a lot of doubts about their abilities to come back from these injuries to be anything better than mediocre. Both are showing signs that they are back up to speed and should be a strong play in your league. They should be had at the tail end of the draft, making them a low risk pick.

Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD – After a very difficult 2010 campaign, Broxton looks to regain control of his pitching arsenal and his closer’s job. He was one of the top three closers being drafted in 2010, but has fallen far from that lofty plateau. He’s a buy low candidate waiting to happen.

All of Lee, Hill, Cabrera, Tabata and Broxton will likely go in a similar round in your draft, so weigh the cost-benefit of each relative to how the rest of your team is shaping up. Also, keep in mind that ADP stands for Average Draft Position, meaning it isn’t a guarantee a player is going to last as long as his ADP. It is an average. Sometimes they’ll go earlier, and sometimes they’ll go later. Whether these players, or your own short list, if there is someone you really want on your fantasy team don’t hesitate to invest a little more – rebuffing the sounds of “r-r-r-e-e-each” from your fellow owners in the draft room – to ensure you get them so they are helping your team, not someone else’s.

Fantasy Baseball Injury Update: Hitters

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Remember investing in the fantasy prospects of Chase Utley, Justin Morneau, Kendry Morales, Dustin Pedroia and Jose Reyes last year? How did that turn out? I know, I know, it was not good. Injuries derailed potential fantasy studs on draft day to a season of fantasy frustration for their owners.

Injuries are tough to predict. Sure, some players give off red flags like Reyes did last spring, but they can also fell previously reliable studs like Utley, who had only missed a handful of games in 2008 and 2009.

Well, we might not be able to predict injuries, but at a minimum we should assess the current status of who was injured last year, to see if a rebound is likely this season. Players coming off injury will generally make fantasy owners question whether they should stay away or not, which could result in us finding a great buy low candidate, assuming we read the tea leaves correct, and they don’t get injured again in 2011, of course.

Here is a look at some key hitters who lost time to injury last season.

 
Good Value

Carlos Beltran battled knee injuries each of the last two seasons. He missed the first half of 2010 due to off-season knee surgery, returned to the active roster but then went out in September with more knee issues. Playing center field at age 33 is perhaps not a recipe for keeping Beltran on the field.

Manager Terry Collins has indicated Beltran is their starting center fielder, but really the New York Mets will be testing to see who has more range between him and Angel Pagan, with the lesser of the two manning right field. By all accounts, Beltran is healthy and in a contract season. Those two points alone, and his extremely low average draft position, make him a good draft day target. If he ends up playing right field, then all the better.

Jimmy Rollins suffered calf and quad injuries that kept recurring which saw him in and out of the lineup last season. Talk about fantasy frustration. He is in a similar situation as Beltran, in that he’s healthy again and entering a contract year for the National League favored Philadelphia Phillies. If you miss out on one of the top SS, put Rollins on your short list.

Grady Sizemore was a 30-30 man in 2008 but suffered a rash of injuries that seriously hampered his 2009 and 2010 seasons. If he slides in your draft, jump on him because he’s a stud when healthy. The knee injury may have sapped his speed and the stolen bases might not return in big numbers like the past, but more than a dozen is still likely. Sizemore should give Cleveland Indian fans something to cheer about, and fantasy owners who have some faith in him with be rewarded with a strong season.

Derrek Lee has fallen out of favor with fantasy players. He’s not much of a base stealing threat any more, but he still has power. Lee is healthy again after off-season surgery to repair a torn ligament in his thumb, something that bothered him through 2010. He is determined to prove that he hasn’t lost it and he could pay off fantasy-wise as he found a nice fit in the Baltimore Orioles lineup.

 
Good to Go

Jose Reyes is back after dealing with an oblique injury in 2010. The injury didn’t affect his base running directly, but the injury affected his ability to get on base which lowered his stolen base totals. Word out of New York says he is healthy, and he is also in a contract season (a recurring theme for the Mets). Watch him in spring training to make sure he is back to his old self before investing.

Ryan Howard’s ankle sprain did little to his game after he returned from two weeks off in August. Howard’s game isn’t speed and he was still able to swing the bat just fine last fall. Look for more of the same this season.

Chase Utley had surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb last July. After nearly two months out, Utley returned with limited power and a batting average that suffered. He’s had the winter to rest and rehabilitate the thumb and he should be back to his old ways again in 2011. He likely won’t fall too far in your draft, so a bargain isn’t likely, but bid with confidence in the same guy who averaged 29 homers and 101 RBI a season from 2005-2009.

Dustin Pedroia returned from his foot injury for just two games before re-injuring it in August after getting hit in the foot with a pitch. Pedroia looks healthy and should be back to his old self for spring 2011. He will probably slide a bit in your draft, so a small bargain might be had here. He should still be drafted amongst the top second basemen for fantasy. The Boston Red Sox added some impressive bats to their lineup in the off-season which should help Pedroia increase his runs and RBI.

Ian Kinsler is yet another top performing 2B who found significant time on the disabled list in 2010. Kinsler missed 55 games with ankle and groin sprains. Like Utley, he shouldn’t go much later in your draft than usual, but you can count on him for his usual production.

Brian Roberts has built a strong reputation that fantasy players will remember on draft day, even as his production declines. He missed a lot of time in 2010 rehabbing back injuries. He’s still a good fantasy producer, but he now falls into a very large group of players who will give you similar numbers at a cheaper price. Unless he falls in your draft, don’t spend a lot on him.

Kurt Suzuki is a steady producer when healthy. Unfortunately, he missed three weeks last season and didn’t get 500 at-bats for the first time since his rookie year. Suzuki doesn’t put up huge numbers, but because he normally gets a lot of at-bats, the stats pile up for him more than most catchers. Assuming he can stay healthy, he should reward you.

 
High Risk, High Reward

Troy Tulowitzki spent an extended stay on the DL two of the last three years and there are serious concerns about his durability. When he plays, he’s the second best shortstop in fantasy baseball. But it’s hard to get stats for your squad when you’re not on the field. If you draft Tulo, make sure you have an adequate backup ready to slide into place should you need it.

Texas’ Josh Hamilton has all the tools to be a superstar in baseball. Check the 2008 All-Star Game for a display of his power. The problem: he just can’t stay healthy. His 2009 and 2010 seasons were slowed by back and rib injuries and he is always a hangnail away from the disabled list. Don’t spend too much on him on draft day, but the 2010 A.L. MVP is always capable of rewarding his owner with some huge numbers.

Justin Morneau suffered a concussion in early July that ended his 2010 season. He is still young enough to come back as a fantasy force, but the Twins have been extremely cautious with this particular injury. Watch him closely in spring training before investing in your draft.

Like Morneau, Jason Bay’s 2010 season ended after a July concussion caused from running into the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium. Early reports are very positive, so look for Bay to come back at full strength, and hopefully return closer to his total of 36 homers from 2009, rather than the 6 he managed in 2010.

 
Buyer Beware

Kendry Morales lost four months of the season after he fractured his leg in the celebration following a walk-off grand slam. Since a power hitter like Morales derives his power from his legs, he is likely to have a few problems in 2011. At this point it isn’t even certain he’ll be ready for Opening Day. Temper your expectations a bit. If he’s in your keeper league, grab him with the intention of a big 2012 season.

Chipper Jones is a walking injury these days. He has only amassed 500 at-bats once in the last seven seasons. He will start the season off under the dark cloud of the knee surgery that ended his 2010 season in August. He should find around 500 at-bats this season, but beware, this isn’t the Chipper of old any longer, this is just old Chipper who will hit for about .275 with modest power and a high OBP. Jones is 38 and considered retirement last season, so his Major League playing days are numbered.