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Preseason Week 4 Fantasy Football News and Notes

September 2, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

No respect for Fred Jackson, at least from the Buffalo Bills front office. He was a surprise release this week and will have some fantasy impact when he inevitably lands on a RB-needy team.

No respect for Fred Jackson, at least from the Buffalo Bills front office. He was a surprise release this week and will have some fantasy impact when he inevitably lands on a RB-needy team.

The big news in our last update dealt with the Martavis Bryant suspension (appeal since denied) and bad vibes out of Washington for Robert Griffin III (inevitable benching since confirmed), and a handful of other smaller items.

We got through a big drafting weekend this past weekend, but the news didn’t stop as a few impactful things came to light, requiring another projections and rankings update this week. Lets get to it. News and notes first, and then the ranking changes.

Arizona Cardinals

Michael Floyd is working his way back from dislocated fingers that required surgery early in training camp. HC Bruce Arians is optimistic Floyd will be back Week 1. Floyd is a worthwhile risk as a WR5 on your team. It just might be difficult to justify starting him any given week.

Atlanta Falcons

Devonta Freeman returned to practice after missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. There is no clear indication which player will start or dominate carries – if anyone – between Freeman and Tevin Coleman. This situation looks like a mess.

Baltimore Ravens

Dennis Pitta placed on the PUP list. Only thing mildly surprising here is he wasn’t put straight on IR, the reports of his recovery are so grim.

Buffalo Bills

Released Fred Jackson. Fans can’t believe it, and fantasy players equally question the decision. There even appears to be some grumblings that not all of the Bills coaches were onside with this call by the GM. Regardless, FJax is out there ready for some other lucky team to pick him up. It will have some domino effect on that team, but keeping mind he is 34, it shouldn’t be a huge impact.

The Bills named Tyrod Taylor their starting QB as expected.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers acquired WR Kevin Norwood from the Seattle Seahawks in a trade. Rookie Devin Funchess does not seem to be doing much to establish himself as the projected starter in the absence of Kelvin Benjamin. I don’t mind Funchess as a rather late, hope for the best upside pick, but this is mainly a stay away from situation.

Chicago Bears

Alshon Jeffery continues to miss practice with a “day-to-day” calf injury. No adjustment yet but it is getting a bit worrisome. The way Bears receivers are limping around, Martellus Bennett may top his 90 catches from last season … and then promptly ask for a big raise.

Cleveland Browns

Duke Johnson is sidelined with a concussion. The team may have issues with Isaiah Crowell, but they may have no choice but to get him there to play unless they sign someone else. It is always a possibility even at this late stage. Seems fantasy players are shying as far away from Browns backs as possible right now.

Detroit Lions

RB Joique Bell returned to practice after a long layoff (longer than fantasy players feel very comfortable with, this time of year) and now represents a bit of a value where he is getting drafted. Even with rookie Ameer Abdullah wowing people, Bell should be a regular contributor on a good offense as long as he can stay healthy.

Green Bay Packers

Randall Cobb is expected to play Week 1 even with his shoulder he injured in preseason.

Indianapolis Colts

Did you know T.Y. Hilton has a concussion? Its true, and he is in the league’s concussion protocol, but he is trending in the right direction with positive reports he’ll be ready Week 1. No alarm bells to sound but something to keep tabs on.

Jacksonville Jaguars

If you saw the comment from my recent draft recap, you know how I feel about this one. After a quiet few weeks with the idea TE Julius Thomas would be back for Week 1, now he requires surgery on his hand and will miss 3 games. If you are desperate for a TE to start the season, give Marcedes Lewis a go.

Kansas City Chiefs

TE Travis Kelce also went down with an ankle injury, but this one looks minor as reports indicate he could play if it was the regular season.

New England Patriots

Tom Brady decision expected end of this week. No sense commenting any further on this story until that happens.

New Orleans Saints

Brandon Coleman has apparently won the WR3 job for the Saints. I did draft him the other night, but WR3 on the Saints is still pretty far down the pecking order for catches, in recent years. Still, if Marques Colston is truly at the end of the line there is a nice opportunity for Coleman if he can take advantage.

New York Jets

TE Jace Amaro placed on IR. Was not going to be a fantasy factor anyway, but he has enough name recognition I thought I should mention it.

Oakland Raiders

In no surprise at all, the Raiders released RB Trent Richardson. That was a short ride.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers lost another kicker. Garrett Hartley was placed on IR. Between this and the suspensions, it is almost like the fantasy Gods are trying to tell us something about Pittsburgh.

Washington Redskins

Kirk Cousins is the Redskins starting QB. God help diehard ‘Skins fans.

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Baltimore Ravens Team Report

July 2, 2015 By Dave Leave a Comment

Baltimore Ravens RB Justin Forsett was a huge surprise for fantasy players last season. New OC Marc Trestman will help him try to repeat or better his numbers this year.

Baltimore Ravens RB Justin Forsett was a huge surprise for fantasy players last season. New OC Marc Trestman will help him try to repeat or better his numbers this year.

QB Joe Flacco

Seven years into his career, it is apparent that Joe Flacco is a far better actual NFL quarterback than he is a fantasy quarterback. In fact, he has only finished one season as a QB1, finishing as the 12th ranked fantasy quarterback back in 2010. Last season, his PPG average of 20.4 marked the high point of his career as he finished the season as the 14th ranked quarterback with career highs in yards with 3,986 and touchdowns with 27. Heading into 2015, there is no evidence that he will emerge as anything more than a mid-tier QB2. At 36, Steve Smith is a year older and he faded badly over the second half of last season. Speedster Torrey Smith has been replaced by rookie 1st round pick Breshad Perriman. Tight end Dennis Pitta may never play again and Owen Daniels, who played well as his replacement, left via free agency and was replaced by rookie 2nd round pick Maxx Williams. While we view the addition of Marc Trestman as offensive coordinator a plus, we’re not buying the notion that Flacco will emerge as a solid QB1 in 2015.

RB Justin Forsett

Every year there is a player that surprises with an outstanding season and propels his fantasy owners deep into their league’s playoffs. Acquired either as a late round flyer or an early season waiver wire pickup, Forsett was that player in 2014, finishing the season with 1,263 rushing yards, 263 receiving yards and eight touchdowns, finishing as the 8th ranked fantasy running back. That marked a career year for Forsett, who struggled for most of his first six years in the league while playing for four different teams. With Marc Trestman having taken over as the Ravens offensive coordinator, Forsett should be in line for another solid season in 2015. He appears to be an ideal fit in Trestman’s offense which funnels plenty of passes to the running back position. In addition, Forsett faces little competition for touches from a pair of largely unproven players in Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Javorius Allen. Due to his diminutive size, Forsett isn’t in line for short yardage work so a huge touchdown count shouldn’t be expected. However, we expect him to approach 1,300 yards with another 8-10 touchdowns, production that is in line with a low end RB1 or high end RB2.

RB Javorius Allen

With little proven talent behind starter Justin Forsett, the Ravens used a 4th round pick for the second year in a row to help address the running back position. After drafting Lorenzo Taliaferro last season, this season they acquired Southern California product Javorius Allen. With Forsett having done little during his first six years in the league before enjoying a breakout season in 2014 at age 29, this is a handcuff situation that bears watching. While Taliaferro is a physical runner with marginal pass receiving ability, Allen possesses good size and is superior in the passing game.

RB Lorenzo Taliaferro

Taken in the 4th round of last year’s NFL Draft, Taliaferro was expected to spend the season buried on the Ravens depth chart. However, Ray Rice’s suspension and subsequent release and Bernard Pierce’s struggles resulted in Taliaferro essentially splitting the backup role behind Justin Forsett with Pierce. In limited playing time, the 6’0”, 229 pound Coastal Carolina product amassed 292 yards on 68 carries while adding eight receptions for 114 yards and scoring four touchdowns. Heading into this season, Taliaferro is expected to compete with rookie 4th round pick Javorius Allen for playing time behind Forsett. Of the two, Taliaferro is more of a between the tackles runner who could earn touches in short yardage situations while Allen is a superior pass receiving threat out of the backfield. With Forsett having topped 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his seven year career last season, his owners should monitor this battle in the preseason.

WR Breshad Perriman

Having watched Torrey Smith leave via free agency, the Ravens were expected to address the wide receiver position in the draft. And as so often seems to happen for Baltimore, an outstanding prospect dropped in their lap at the 26th spot in the 1st round in the form of Central Florida speedster Breshad Perriman. Let’s run down the check marks: good size at 6’2” and 212 pounds, outstanding speed with a 4.25-40 time, proven big play producer in college. It will be a surprise if Perriman isn’t lined up opposite Steve Smith on opening day. Throw in the fact that Perriman is a perfect fit to play with a strong armed quarterback in Joe Flacco that plays to his ability to make plays down the field and there might be some fantasy gold here, especially in dynasty formats. While Perriman may struggle early, he has tremendous upside and should be viewed as a solid WR4 with upside in redraft formats.

WR Steve Smith

Somewhat surprisingly, Smith entered the 2014 season on fire, generating some big plays on his way to gaining 640 yards and scoring four touchdowns on his 38 receptions during the first six weeks of the season. Unfortunately, his career renaissance was short lived as he struggled over the remainder of the season. The big plays dried up with Smith catching 41 passes for 425 yards and a pair of touchdowns during the final 10 games of the season. Looking ahead to 2015, Smith’s saving grace might be the departure of Torrey Smith and the continued injury struggles of tight end Dennis Pitta. That should keep his target count around the 134 he had last season, but we don’t view his big play production during the first portion of last season as being very easy to replicate. His upside is as a WR3, capable of approaching 900-950 receiving yards with 5-6 touchdowns.

WR Marlon Brown

After a promising rookie season in 2013 when he caught 49 receptions for 524 yards and seven touchdowns, Brown regressed badly during his sophomore season. Forced to split playing time with Kamar Aiken and Michael Campanaro, Brown saw his targets drop from 81 to 31 as he caught 24 passes for 255 yards while failing to find the end zone. Torrey Smith’s departure and the addition of rookie 1st round pick Breshad Perriman, coupled with the fact the team will likely enter the season without a proven pass catching option at tight end, offers a small glimpse of hope for Brown’s fantasy prospects. He failed to take advantage of Dennis Pitta’s injury shortened season last year, losing touches in the intermediate passing game to Owen Daniels. While Brown holds some appeal in dynasty formats mostly due to Steve Smiths’ age, he is waiver wire material in redraft formats.

TE Maxx Williams

With Dennis Pitta’s career in doubt and 2014 3rd round pick Crockett Gillmore viewed as more of a blocker than a receiver, the Ravens used a 2nd round pick in this year’s draft to acquire Maxx Williams, widely regarded as this year’s top tight end prospect. Williams is a talented player who should emerge as a solid weapon in the passing game, and the Ravens draft well so we expect that he will have a long, productive career provided he remains healthy. However, rookie tight ends regularly struggle (witness Eric Ebron’s struggles in 2014) so even if Pitta fails to return to health, we’re not expecting big things from Williams in 2015. And if Pitta does somehow steal some targets then Williams has no fantasy appeal whatsoever in redraft formats.

TE Dennis Pitta

Having dislocated and fractured his hip for the second time in two years, Pitta’s 2014 season came to an end in Week 3 last season. His medical prognosis isn’t promising and neither are his fantasy prospects. After showing such promise as a receiver during the 2012 season when he caught 61 passes for 669 yards and seven touchdowns, Pitta’s career has gone downhill with just seven games played over the last two years. At this point, it is even difficult to consider him worthy of stashing on your roster in the deepest of dynasty leagues.

Also see: Baltimore Ravens IDP Team Report | Chicago Bears Team Report

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

Initial 2015 Fantasy Football Projections Commentary, AFC North

June 10, 2015 By Draft Buddy Leave a Comment

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in fantasy scoring.

Our initial 2015 fantasy football projections were released June 1. Even better, Draft Buddy is now available!

To accompany the initial projections, as we continue to review, research, analyze the projections, and create cheatsheet rankings, we provide the following commentary by division to give some insight into why we have players projected the way we do at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

  • “Quarterback Whisperer” Marc Trestman is the Ravens new OC, which one would assume means an uptick for QB Joe Flacco and RB Justin Forsett in the passing game. The problem with boosting Flacco is he’s already thrown pass attempts in excess of former Trestman protégé Jay Cutler in recent years, and his supporting cast consists of two rookies and a very late bloomer or journeyman RB amongst his top four pass catchers. You can be bullish about Flacco, but he’s still considered just a fringe starter or reliable backup.
  • We’ve currently got Forsett in line with his catches last season, which should arguably go up. Matt Forte caught 74 and 102 receptions in his two seasons under Trestman. However, Forsett is not Forte. Forsett bounced around playing for four different teams through six seasons before finally breaking out last year. That’s a red flag, or at least a caution. Lorenzo Taliaferro wasn’t particularly impressive as a rookie, so the team added Javorius Allen via the NFL Draft. How effective these guys are is the main threat to Forsett’s workload.
  • Steve Smith started off hot last season with four touchdowns, four 100-yard games in the first six weeks. Then there was a noticeable fade. Does he have another 1,000-yard season in him? Possible given the opportunity, but not great odds.
  • The Ravens need at least one of rookies Breshad Perriman and Maxx Williams (preferably both) to make an immediate impact. The team is optimistic Dennis Pitta will play this season but it looks 50-50 at best right now.

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Fantasy players don’t like Andy Dalton. He failed to crack 3,400 yards or 20 TD passing last season, but I still had to double check why (at the time) his 12-team ADP was n/a on our initial online cheatsheets. It’s a running team. The Bengals would be quite content to keep him under 500 pass attempts.
  • Giovani Bernard looked like he might be the next Jamaal Charles-esque all-purpose back after his rookie season in 2013. Then Jeremy Hill came to town and all bets are off. Hill overtook Bernard producing over 1,300 yards on 222 carries and 27 receptions. Bernard missed a few games, still chipped in over 1,000 yards on over 200 touches, but the coaching staff showed a lot more confidence in Hill. Hills’ yards-per-carry is half a yard better. He’s the guy to own. Bernard only if he drops too far to present good value.
  • One of the best receivers in the game is A.J. Green, but the run heavy philosophy begets a slight downgrade from Green’s 3-year weighted average. Mohamed Sanu filled in pretty well when Green was out and Marvin Jones was lost for the season. Now Sanu and Jones will challenge each other for snaps. Jones wins, if healthy.
  • Veteran Jermaine Gresham is a free agent still on the market, leaving Tyler Eifert who has done little in his NFL career, and rookie Tyler Kroft. Eifert is an end-game flier if you need a second TE, but more than likely this position on the Bengals is a fantasy wasteland. Surprising, since the knock on Dalton is his deep ball.

Cleveland Browns

  • Our projections need some adjustment here. Since initially prepping these, media reports Josh McCown is the clear cut starter and Johnny Manziel is not really in the discussion. Makes sense. Neither are worth drafting.
  • The running back position was tough to figure out last season. It isn’t any clearer this season, and potentially worse, since last year we could write-off Ben Tate pretty early on. This year, Terrance West, Isaiah Crowell and rookie Duke Johnson are all in the picture for carries. We’ve got it Crow-West-Johnson, but none with enough carries to get to 1,000 yards. Losing OC Kyle Shanahan does not help matters.
  • Dwayne Bowe and Brian Hartline arrive to take over the top two receiver spots. Bowe’s 1,000 yard seasons are a distant memory. Can you believe he caught 15 TD in 2010? This is a dismal depth chart. Robert Housler is interesting to the extent if he does perform for fantasy, we get to see how many pundits put their hand up and say, “see, called it” [three years ago].

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Ben Roethlisberger was better than you probably thought two seasons ago, and last year way better than you probably thought. He finished 5th in scoring, within 10 points of 3rd. No significant losses and his receivers are more than likely better. Note he’s getting drafted 8th to 9th QB off the board.
  • Le’Veon Bell is currently suspended the first three games of the season, and that is a bummer. He blew past 350 touches last season. The forced time off scales him back to around 300. Discount accordingly but not too much because it is his points-per-game that matter. Hopefully rust is short lived once he’s back in late September. DeAngelo Williams backs up Bell and has some value knowing he will start three games.
  • Big Ben and Antonio Brown are in a zone. I’ve seen Brown go first WR off the board in some early drafts, and I can’t knock it. Best bet to top 100 receptions this season. Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton are a young, exciting pair, particularly Bryant, but not ready to cut into Brown’s production. Bryant might be a tough decision to start each week on your fantasy team, but he didn’t play the first six weeks last season and then proceeded to score in 7 of 11 games played. Impressive.
  • Some pegged the Steelers to draft a TE replacement for Heath Miller. Not yet. A blah pick but provides an acceptable return if you are last to draft the position.

Initial 2015 Projections Release and Commentary Series

Projections | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West

Filed Under: Fantasy Football

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